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The United States has experienced a notable surge in inflation, with consumer prices rising by nearly 1 percent in March. This significant increase, one of the highest short-term inflation rates in years, is largely attributed to the disruption of energy markets amid the ongoing conflict with Iran. According to a report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the inflation rate in March was 0.9 percent, up from 0.3 percent in February. This marks the largest increase since May 2022, during the peak of the cost-of-living crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. The March increase was primarily driven by energy prices, with gasoline prices surging by 21.2 percent and fuel oil prices increasing by more than 30 percent. The energy index saw a 10.9 percent increase in March, the largest monthly rise since September 2005. The escalation in prices followed the US and Israel's launch of an all-out war on Iran on February 28, which resulted in the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In response, Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil and gas prices worldwide to skyrocket. The price of a barrel of oil reached $120, up from about $70 on February 27. In the US, the price of one gallon of gasoline exceeded $4.1, a significant increase from less than $3 before the conflict began. Although a two-week ceasefire was agreed upon between the US and Iran, marine traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains at a fraction of its pre-war levels. US President Donald Trump has warned Iran against blocking the strait or charging vessels for safe passage. About 20 percent of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. While the ceasefire has brought some relief to the global energy market, with oil prices dropping to less than $100, US consumers are still paying $4.15 on average at the petrol pump. Experts suggest that it will take several months for prices to stabilize. The inflation report comes as US politicians focus on the cost of living and affordability, ahead of the November midterm elections. Trump's Democratic rivals have criticized him for launching the war without congressional approval, highlighting the increased economic costs for Americans.

Shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains effectively halted even after Washington and Tehran announced a two‑week ceasefire on Tuesday, dampening expectations of a swift end to one of the most severe energy disruptions in recent memory. According to ship‑tracking data from market‑intelligence firm Kpler, only five vessels crossed the waterway on Wednesday, down from eleven the day before, and seven managed the passage on Thursday. The figure is a stark contrast to the pre‑conflict norm of 120‑140 daily transits that the strait typically handled before the February 28 attacks by the United States and Israel. More than 600 vessels, including 325 tankers, are still stranded in the Gulf, as reported by Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Ana Subasic, Kpler’s trade‑risk analyst, warned that even if the ceasefire holds, safe‑passage capacity is likely to stay limited to 10–15 ships per day, reflecting shipowners’ caution and the absence of any toll‑free guarantee. The strait channels roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supplies. Its continued blockage therefore sustains pressure on global energy markets. After a brief dip, Brent crude rose to $96.39 a barrel at 02:00 GMT on Friday, having slipped below $95 the previous day. U.S. President Donald Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire’s “safe passage” clause, labeling Tehran’s performance “very poor” in a Truth Social post. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, countered that the United States had not honored its commitments, urging Washington to choose between a genuine ceasefire and “continued war” linked to Israel’s actions in Lebanon. Maritime veteran C Uday Bhaskar described the atmosphere in the strait as one of “uncertainty and anxiety,” noting that shipping firms remain fearful, especially after Iranian statements about newly laid mines. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of the UAE’s state‑run oil giant ADNOC, echoed the sentiment, asserting that Iran’s conditional permissions amount to “coercion, not freedom of navigation.” Asian equity markets responded positively to the tentative easing of oil price pressure. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.8 %, South Korea’s KOSPI rose about 2 %, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained roughly 1 % in early Friday trading. While the ceasefire offers a diplomatic window, the reality on the water remains stark: the Strait of Hormuz is far from open, and the global energy system continues to feel the strain of constrained maritime traffic.

The strategic Strait of Hormuz, linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, has become the focal point of the Israel‑U.S. war on Iran that began in February. In peacetime the narrow waterway handled about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments without any tolls, but the conflict has turned it into a contested zone. After a series of Israeli and U.S. strikes, Iran retaliated by targeting merchant vessels it deemed hostile, effectively shutting the passage and triggering one of the most severe energy‑distribution crises in recent memory. While a two‑week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, was declared on Tuesday, Tehran has issued a set of official terms that would govern the strait moving forward. According to Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghi, safe passage will be allowed in coordination with the Iranian armed forces and subject to technical limitations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has even published a new navigation map that pushes traffic farther north, away from the traditional route near Oman’s coast, citing the risk of anti‑ship mines. Central to Tehran’s 10‑point peace proposal is the idea of charging fees for strait usage. Iranian media report that the plan could levy up to $2 million per vessel—a sum to be shared with Oman—or a charge of $1 per barrel of oil shipped. The revenue would allegedly fund reconstruction of military and civilian infrastructure damaged by the U.S.–Israeli campaign. Oman has publicly rejected any toll scheme, with Transport Minister Said Al‑Maawali reminding that the country has already signed all relevant international maritime transport agreements that prohibit such fees. International law adds another layer of complexity. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) prohibits levying charges for mere passage through international straits, allowing fees only for services like navigation assistance or port use. Neither the United States nor Iran have ratified UNCLOS, but the principle remains a benchmark for maritime norms. Analysts suggest a possible workaround: charging for de‑mining and safety services rather than for passage itself, which could be permissible under existing legal frameworks. The proposal has sparked diplomatic pushback. At the United Nations Security Council, Bahrain led a resolution urging coordinated reopening of the strait, backed by Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan. The resolution passed with 11 of 15 votes, but was vetoed by Russia and China, who argued it unfairly targeted Iran and ignored the initial strikes. Beyond the region, the United States is unlikely to accept indefinite tolls. Former President Donald Trump, who announced the ceasefire, warned that U.S. forces would remain in the area and threatened to resume attacks if negotiations faltered. American troops are reportedly “hanging around” to assist with traffic buildup, though the extent of their operational control remains unclear. Maritime analyst C. Uday Bhaskar notes that only three to five ships have traversed the strait since the ceasefire began, underscoring the lingering uncertainty for global shippers. He adds that ship owners facing multi‑million‑dollar losses each day may ultimately acquiesce to Iran’s terms, at least temporarily. Should Iran implement a toll regime, the immediate impact would fall on Gulf oil‑producing nations, but the ripple effects could destabilize global energy markets, already strained by supply shocks. Major powers such as the United Kingdom have been coordinating with a coalition of 40 countries to explore alternative mechanisms for reopening the waterway without conceding to tolls. In sum, Iran’s proposed protocol for the Strait of Hormuz introduces a contentious new variable into an already volatile geopolitical landscape, pitting national security interests against established maritime law and the broader stability of world energy supplies.

The global energy crisis has been labeled 'the mother of all crises' by Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar, as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate. The crisis, sparked by Iran's retaliatory blocking of the strait, has significant implications for global energy supplies and security.Bayraktar, in an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera Arabic, highlighted the importance of diversifying energy routes to mitigate the impact of such crises. He noted that Turkey, with its strategic location between Asia and Europe, has become a pivotal country in the region, hosting key pipelines such as the 'Blue Stream' and 'TurkStream'.The minister emphasized that Turkey is well-suited to weather the crisis, with sufficient strategic energy reserves, including gas storage facilities that are 72 percent full, compared to Europe's 28 percent. However, he warned that rising oil and gas prices still burden the state budget, with an increase of $1 per barrel costing Ankara approximately $400 million.Bayraktar also discussed the potential for a new energy architecture to emerge, driven by the need for diversification. He proposed several projects, including the transportation of Turkmen gas across the Caspian Sea to Turkey and Europe, extending the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline to reach Basra, and constructing a natural gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey.The crisis has significant economic implications, with oil prices potentially rising to $200 per barrel in a worst-case scenario, which could lead to another global recession. Bayraktar stressed the importance of a lasting peace in the region to stabilize energy markets and prevent further economic damage.

President Donald Trump declared on Truth Social that U.S. troops, aircraft and naval vessels will stay positioned around Iran until what he termed the "REAL AGREEMENT" is fully honored, warning that any failure by Tehran will trigger "bigger, better, and stronger" military action.Trump’s message, posted late Wednesday, underscores Washington’s demand that Iran abandon any nuclear weapons ambitions and guarantee safe passage through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. He added that U.S. forces are "loading up and resting, looking forward to its next conquest," a rhetoric that heightens concerns of a rapid escalation.The announcement follows a two‑week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan that paused six weeks of combat and briefly steadied global markets worried about disruptions to oil shipments through Hormuz. However, the truce remains precarious.Iranian semi‑official outlets ISNA and Tasnim released a chart suggesting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had laid sea mines in the strait, marking a "danger zone" that forced some vessels to navigate farther north near Larak Island. The chart, dated Feb. 28 to Apr. 9, leaves it unclear whether the mines have been cleared.On the ground in Tehran, public sentiment is deeply skeptical. One woman told Al Jazeera that any day without bloodshed would be "very good," while another dismissed the ceasefire as meaningless while Israel continues its bombardment of Lebanon. A third resident called the truce "a theatrical show" orchestrated by Trump.Negotiations are further complicated by Tehran’s rejection of a sweeping U.S. proposal. Iran insists on an end to Israeli attacks on Lebanon and the lifting of sanctions—conditions Washington has yet to accept.Despite the uncertainty, Iranian officials hinted at a diplomatic push: Ambassador Reza Amiri Moghadam announced on X that a delegation would arrive in Islamabad for talks based on ten Iranian‑proposed points, though he later deleted the post. Pakistan’s capital simultaneously announced two days of unannounced holidays, adding to the opacity.Israel has intensified its campaign in Lebanon, killing at least 182 people in a single day, which Tehran warns could render further negotiations "unreasonable" under the current circumstances.In Washington, opposition to the conflict is mounting. Senator Cory Booker announced that Democrats intend to invoke the War Powers Resolution to force a congressional vote, condemning Trump’s actions as "unauthorised" and "reckless war‑mongering" that the American public does not support.The convergence of U.S. military posturing, Iranian skepticism, Israeli escalation, and domestic political pressure creates a volatile environment where the fragile ceasefire could unravel, threatening regional security and global energy markets.

Labour leader Ed Miliband is facing a dilemma over whether to support new oil and gas licences in the North Sea, a move that could undermine the party's commitment to renewable energy and climate action. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is pushing for the licences as a way to cut fuel bills, and some trade unions are also expressing support.However, Labour's green-friendly manifesto and Miliband's long-standing commitment to combating climate change make it difficult for the party to backtrack on its opposition to fossil fuel extraction. The issue has become a battleground between Labour and Reform UK, with Farage framing it as a fight between the 'common man' and the 'elites'. The North Sea oil and gas industry is in decline, and even if new licences were granted, it would take five to seven years for the wells to become productive. Moreover, the global energy market is driven by fossil fuel prices, so extracting more oil from the North Sea would have a minimal impact on UK energy prices.Instead of succumbing to pressure from the right, Labour should focus on investing in renewable energy and breaking the energy market into clean power and fossil power. This approach would not only help combat climate change but also provide a more sustainable and resilient energy supply.The article concludes that Labour must stay committed to its green agenda and not give in to the 'nostalgic fantasy' of North Sea drilling, which would only serve to benefit Nigel Farage and Reform UK.

Iran and the United States each declared a triumph after agreeing to a two‑week ceasefire that was announced just before President Donald Trump’s deadline to force Tehran’s surrender. The conflict, which began on 28 February, has already claimed 2,076 lives in U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran and has caused thousands more deaths across the region. The fighting has also shocked global energy markets, stranding oil tankers and pushing prices to unprecedented levels. Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States would halt bombing Iran after receiving a “workable” 10‑point ceasefire proposal, adding that “almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to.” Iran, for its part, said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, even as some citizens denounced the government’s perceived capitulation. Both parties are set to resume Pakistan‑mediated talks in Islamabad on Friday, though analysts warn that earlier red lines may resurface. Key terms of the Tuesday agreement: the United States will suspend air strikes for two weeks, citing that it has already achieved its military objectives and is close to a “definitive agreement concerning long‑term peace.” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, pledged to halt “defensive operations” and to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while also indicating willingness to fund reconstruction from fees collected on transiting ships. Domestic reaction in Iran remains volatile. University of Tehran professor Foad Izadi noted that the public’s pessimism stems from two prior escalations—June’s 12‑day war and the February 28 strikes—both of which occurred amid ongoing negotiations. Earlier demands: The United States had presented a 15‑point plan on 25 March, calling for a 30‑day ceasefire, immediate reopening of the Strait, Iran’s de‑commissioning of its nuclear facilities, a total ban on uranium enrichment, handover of nuclear stockpiles to the IAEA, cessation of support to regional proxies, strict limits on ballistic missiles, and a full lift of sanctions, among other items. Iran responded with a 10‑point proposal that emphasized a non‑aggression commitment from the United States, controlled passage through the Strait, acceptance of its enrichment programme, comprehensive sanctions relief, withdrawal of U.S. combat forces, compensation for war damages via shipping fees, and a binding UN Security Council resolution. Both sides have already made concessions. Iran moved from demanding a permanent ceasefire to accepting a two‑week pause, and it shifted from insisting on reparations to proposing reconstruction funding from Strait fees. The United States, meanwhile, has softened its demand for an “unconditional” Iranian surrender and has not reiterated its earlier insistence on dismantling Iran’s missile capabilities. One of the most contentious issues remains the status of Lebanon. While Pakistan’s prime minister said the ceasefire would extend to Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied any such inclusion, and Israel launched a major bombing campaign in Beirut shortly thereafter, killing hundreds. Looking ahead, analysts highlight that the United States is unlikely to concede on the complete withdrawal of its roughly 50,000 troops stationed across 19 Middle Eastern sites—a demand Tehran has placed on the table. The outcome of the upcoming talks will hinge on whether Washington can accommodate Tehran’s broader political and economic requests without compromising its strategic objectives.

US President Donald Trump has reportedly agreed to pause attacks on Iran contingent upon the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil shipments. The development comes amid heightened tensions between the United States and Iran.The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for approximately 20% of the world's oil supply, making its closure a significant concern for global energy markets. Tensions in the region have been escalating, with the US imposing sanctions on Iran and Iran responding with measures that have impacted the flow of oil through the strait.The agreement to pause attacks if the strait opens suggests a temporary de-escalation in the conflict, potentially easing concerns about global oil supply disruptions. However, the situation remains fluid, and the long-term implications of this development are yet to be seen.

The recent ceasefire between the US and Iran offers a glimmer of hope for the energy crisis that has been exacerbated by the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the deal's stability is already being questioned, with Iran claiming that Israel's attacks on Lebanon breach the agreement. Even if the ceasefire holds and hundreds of tankers stranded in the Gulf start to transit once more, analysts fear that it will not be enough to return the flow of oil, gas, chemicals, and other vital items to pre-crisis levels. An estimated 2,000 vessels with about 20,000 seafarers onboard have been trapped in the Gulf since the outbreak of the conflict. Shipping analysts and owners have cautioned that even a temporary ceasefire does not provide a sufficient guarantee that it is safe to make the passage, particularly because Iran's foreign minister has stated that transit will be under Iranian military management. Many questions remain for shipowners and their captains over whether it is safe to navigate through the strait. The disruption has been compounded by the forced shutdown of oil and gas production across the Gulf as storage facilities reached capacity. In addition, many key energy production sites have been damaged by drone attacks. Experts have said it could take months or years to fully restore the Gulf's energy production. Energy markets have fallen sharply on the hope that millions of barrels of crude oil and gas trapped in the Gulf could soon help to relieve a crisis that the International Energy Agency has said is more serious than the energy flashpoints in 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined. However, traders are also expected to price in a continuing 'geopolitical risk premium' to reflect uncertainty over whether the ceasefire will hold.