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The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has led to a war of words over whether negotiations are taking place to end the hostilities. US President Donald Trump asserts that 'productive' talks have occurred with a top Iranian figure, but Iranian officials, including Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, vehemently deny these claims.The conflicting narratives raise questions about the motivations behind each side's statements. An analysis of what each side stands to gain from negotiations and a potential end to the conflict may provide clarity. Trump's comments on negotiations may be aimed at calming stock markets and oil prices, which have fluctuated significantly due to the conflict.The timing of Trump's comments coincides with the end of the trading week and a five-day deadline he gave for a positive response from Iran. This has led some to speculate that the US may be using talk of negotiations as a strategy to buy time for more US troops to arrive in the Middle East, potentially for a ground invasion of Iranian territory.From Iran's perspective, the economic pain inflicted on the US and global economies serves as a deterrent against future attacks. Therefore, it is in Iran's interest to downplay any talk of negotiations to maintain pressure on the US.Trump faces a dilemma between extending the war and suffering economic and political costs or ending it and facing criticism for not completing what he termed a 'short-term excursion.' The Iranian state, on the other hand, appears to have less incentive to end the war without establishing an effective deterrent against future attacks.The conflict has already resulted in over 1,500 deaths in Iran, significant infrastructure damage, and strained relations with Gulf neighbors. Moderate voices in Iran may argue that some form of deterrence has been achieved, and it may be time to talk and secure concessions.

Iran has assured that 'non-hostile' vessels can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquified natural gas supplies. The assurance comes amid a significant collapse in maritime traffic through the strait, which has contributed to a major global energy crisis.In a statement released through its mission to the United Nations, Iran specified that ships would be allowed to transit the strait 'provided that they neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran and fully comply with the declared safety and security regulations.'The development follows a sharp decline in shipping traffic through the strait, with only about 5 vessels passing through daily, compared to an average of 120 daily transits before the US-Israel conflict began. This reduction has led to a surge in global energy prices, with Brent crude experiencing significant fluctuations.Iran's statement also mentioned that ships will be allowed to transit 'in coordination with the competent Iranian authorities.' The country has shared similar assurances with the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the UN body responsible for international shipping safety and security.The move comes as US President Donald Trump mentioned ongoing negotiations to end the conflict with Iran, despite Tehran's previous denials of talks. The situation remains complex, with global markets closely watching for any signs of resolution.

Robert Habeck, former German Vice-Chancellor and Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, has issued a stark warning about the dangers posed by authoritarian leaders driven by megalomania, drawing parallels between Vladimir Putin's actions in Ukraine and Donald Trump's actions in Iran.Habeck argues that both leaders are primarily concerned with their own greatness, making them unpredictable and disinterested in international law. This megalomania has led to massive military miscalculations, including underestimating the resolve of the countries they attacked to make sacrifices.The article highlights the impact on energy prices, with both conflicts threatening to disrupt global energy supplies. Habeck recalls the high oil prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which rose to $130 a barrel, and warns that a prolonged conflict in Iran could lead to an inflationary contagion beyond energy.Habeck emphasizes the need for Europe to develop its defence capabilities, including stockpiles of interceptor drones and new production capacity, to prepare for the scenario of a long war. He also stresses the importance of rapid electrification of industry, transport, and the heating and cooling sectors to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.The author concludes that Europe must act to prevent the worst outcome, rather than relying on hope or second-best outcomes. As he notes, hope is not a strategy, and the EU must use its resources wisely to protect its infrastructure and ensure energy security.

The UK government's recent announcement to make significant cuts to direct aid to Africa and the Middle East has been met with deep disappointment. This move is seen as a moral dereliction of duty, betraying the world's most marginalised, and a false economy that will bring greater instability to the world and make people less safe. The cut in aid to 0.3% of gross national income (GNI) from 2027 breaks Labour's 2024 manifesto pledge to restore development spending at the level of 0.7% of GNI “as soon as fiscal circumstances allow”. The UK is making the steepest proportion of aid cuts among G7 nations. As James Mattis, Donald Trump's defence secretary, once said: “If you don’t fund the state department fully, then I need to buy more ammunition ultimately.” This highlights the shortsightedness of cutting aid, which could lead to more conflict, famine, and persecution. The UK itself benefits materially from these investments. The recent inquiry by the all-party parliamentary group on global health and security on international health worker recruitment highlights the extent to which the NHS and wider economy rely on the skills, expertise, and partnerships rooted in the global south. The UK has saved £14bn in training costs through international recruitment and continues to depend on globally trained health professionals. Investment in global vaccination, disease surveillance, and research helps stop outbreaks before they spread internationally and place pressure on health systems. Preventing disease at source is one of the smartest investments we can make to protect patients in Britain. The situation in Somalia, on the edge of famine, underscores the importance of sustained investment in global development. Two consecutive failed rainy seasons have left 6.5 million people in crisis, more than double the number a year ago. The UK's humanitarian relief in Somalia is welcome, but the scrapping of nature funding and cuts to climate aid risk compromising its own strategy of preventing crisis before it takes hold.

Global markets experienced a significant shift as stock markets in Asia and Europe rose following reports that US President Donald Trump had sent a 15-point framework for peace to Iran. This development sparked hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East, influencing market sentiment. The price of oil, which had fallen by 4% in early trading to below $100 (£75) per barrel of Brent crude, later recovered to approximately $100. This fluctuation was driven by the prospect of an end to the conflict easing the squeeze on oil supply. The straits of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane through which 20% of global oil supplies transit, had been effectively closed by Iran, causing a significant disruption to oil and gas shipments. Iran's announcement that it would permit “non-hostile” ships to pass safely through the strait of Hormuz helped to reopen this crucial waterway. This move, combined with the potential peace plan, contributed to the positive market sentiment. Stock markets in Asia saw notable gains, with Japan’s Nikkei rising by 2.9%, India’s S&P; BSE Sensex almost 2% higher, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up by just under 1%. European markets also saw increases, with the FTSE 100 in London up by almost 1%, Germany’s Dax trading 1.6% higher, and France’s Cac 40 climbing by 1.4%. However, Iran’s foreign affairs ministry informed the UN Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile” vessels could pass through the strait, which also poses a risk to global food security due to the disruption of fertiliser supplies. The World Trade Organization warned that this could lead to food price shocks. The conflict's impact on gold prices was also noted, as the metal traditionally seen as a safe haven asset during troubled times experienced a 13% decline to about $4,460 per ounce. Additionally, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warned that a prolonged conflict could lead to oil prices rising to $150 a barrel, potentially triggering a global recession.

The traditional cold war diplomacy of brinkmanship, characterized by carefully balanced standoffs and rules-based international order, has given way to a world in freefall. This shift is exemplified by the ever-widening conflict in the Gulf where strategic objectives remain as unclear as the potential endpoint of hostilities.Approaching a month since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the stated objectives of removing the country's nuclear threat and destroying its ballistic missile capability appear increasingly disconnected from the disproportionate impact on civilians and neighboring Gulf nations. Despite these consequences, the Iranian regime's willingness to escalate the conflict shows no signs of diminishing.The Guardian Weekly's coverage examines this critical juncture through multiple perspectives. Patrick Wintour recounts the pivotal week when global tensions reached a tipping point, while Richard Partington analyzes the long-term economic implications of a prolonged conflict, from oil price fluctuations to inflationary pressures and economic growth impacts. From South Lebanon, William Christou reports on healthcare professionals caught in the crossfire of Israeli airstrikes, highlighting the human cost of the escalating violence.Emma Graham-Harrison provides insight from Jerusalem, examining Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's strategy of attempting to rehabilitate his image through what he frames as destruction of an 'axis of evil.' Meanwhile, Simon Tisdall poses a critical question: when US President Donald Trump eventually seeks to halt the conflict, will any parties be willing to heed his calls for de-escalation?Beyond the primary geopolitical focus, this week's Guardian Weekly edition explores several significant developments across different sectors. The UK political landscape features an examination of the upcoming local elections, where voter sentiment appears increasingly focused on rejecting established parties rather than actively supporting alternatives. The scientific section explores innovative approaches to addressing snoring disorders through CPAP machines, while the culture section features an in-depth interview with Dave Grohl discussing Foo Fighters, personal challenges, and grief following the loss of bandmate Taylor Hawkins.In sports, the publication celebrates the remarkable achievement of British athletes Keely Hodgkinson, Georgia Hunter Bell, and Molly Caudery, who each secured gold medals at the world indoor athletics championships in Poland, showcasing British excellence in track and field events.

Denmark is holding parliamentary elections today, with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen seeking a third term after her defiant stance against US President Donald Trump's push to take over Greenland.About 4.3 million Danes are registered to vote, with polls open from 8am to 8pm local time. The first results are expected in the evening.Frederiksen's firm rejection of Trump's bid boosted her approval ratings, helping to stabilise her government after a period of declining support. Her main challenger is centre-right Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen of the Venstre party.The vote comes amid months of heightened tensions over Trump's push to take control of Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory. However, the campaign has focused on domestic issues such as food and fuel prices, the future of agriculture, clean drinking water, and welfare standards at pig farms.Right-wing populists have also sought to gain support with calls for tougher immigration policies. Polls suggest Frederiksen's centre-left Social Democrats could remain the largest party in the 179-seat parliament, although they risk their weakest result in more than a century amid voter discontent.

Israeli analysts are expressing a sense of disappointment and confusion following US President Donald Trump's assertion that negotiations with Iran to de-escalate the conflict are ongoing. This comes as a surprise, given Trump's previous threats to launch strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure and Tehran's denials of any negotiations taking place.The situation has left many in Israel questioning the country's role in the conflict, particularly as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had framed the war as an existential threat to Israel, with the US joining forces to combat Iran. Netanyahu has boasted of convincing the US to support Israel's stance against Iran.In a video statement, Netanyahu mentioned that Trump believed it was possible to leverage the military achievements of both the US and Israel to secure an agreement that would safeguard their vital interests. He emphasized that Israel continues to attack Iran and Lebanon, methodically dismantling Iran's missile and nuclear programs and targeting Hezbollah.Despite Netanyahu's assertions, many Israelis are aware that the war was initially presented as an effort to overthrow the Iranian government and eliminate the threat from the country. With the Islamic Republic still standing and Iran launching deadly attacks on Israel, the prospect of a negotiated end to the conflict is unsettling.Former Israeli ambassador Alon Pinkas suggested that if Trump has pushed for negotiations over Netanyahu's objections, it may indicate that the US president has realized Netanyahu may have misled him about the feasibility and speed of a victory and the viability of regime change in Iran.Political scientist Ori Goldberg described Trump's move as a defeat for Netanyahu, essentially ditching Israel. He noted that this development undermines Israel's status as a serious player that the US or other states would want to engage with.The situation highlights the complex dynamics between Israel, the US, and Iran, with analysts suggesting that even if Israel has been sidelined in current negotiations, it has still achieved significant gains in its fight against Iran. Israeli political analyst Nimrod Flashenberg noted that Israel's primary goal may have been to downgrade Iran's military capabilities, which it has accomplished in a way that ensures long-term US commitment to maintaining this status.

The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has escalated with a series of attacks on Iranian cities, including the capital Tehran, and other locations such as Tabriz, Isfahan, and Karaj. These attacks occurred even as US President Donald Trump claimed that Washington was engaged in productive conversations with Tehran to end the war.Iranian media reported that Israeli-US strikes targeted two gas facilities and a pipeline, hours after Trump postponed planned attacks on power infrastructure. The attacks resulted in partial damage to facilities in central Iran, including a gas administration building and a gas pressure regulation station in Isfahan.A leading scholar and professor at a science university in Tehran, Saeed Shamaghdari, was killed alongside his two children in an attack on his residence north of the capital. Iran's English-language news channel Press TV identified Shamaghdari as a teacher at the engineering department of the Iran University of Science and Technology.The head of Iran's emergency service, Jafar Miadfar, reported that 208 children have been killed since the war began on February 28, with 168 of them dying in the US missile strikes on a girls' school in Minab city. Rights groups have called for an investigation into the Minab attack as a potential war crime.More than 1,500 civilians have been killed across Iran, according to the Iranian government. The US-Israel war on Iran has expanded across the Middle East, leading to a spike in oil prices and triggering a global energy crisis.Despite the escalation of violence, Iran's Foreign Minister Abass Araghchi has held calls with several countries, including Egypt, Pakistan, and Oman, in an attempt to open a diplomatic channel. However, senior Iranian officials have denied that Iran is engaged in talks with the US, contradicting Trump's claims of productive conversations.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has emphasized the need for a negotiated solution to the conflict, warning that the situation is critical for energy supplies and condemning Iran's efforts to block energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz.