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At the start of 2026 Pakistan was sitting on a surplus of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). Three consecutive years of falling demand – from a peak of 8.2 million tonnes in 2021 to 6.1 million tonnes by late 2025 – were driven by cheap solar panels and reduced industrial activity. The government responded by quietly selling excess cargoes abroad and shutting down domestic wells to avoid over‑pressurising pipelines. Any gas that could not be diverted would have been pushed into household networks at a loss, adding billions to the sector’s crippling debt. Everything changed on 28 February when the United States and Israel launched the "Epic Fury" operation against Iran. The strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted missile sites, air defences and military infrastructure. Iran retaliated with hundreds of missiles and drones, choking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint for roughly 20 % of global oil and gas. As part of its retaliation, Iranian drones hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City on 2 March, the world’s largest LNG export hub. Qatar, the second‑largest LNG exporter after the United States, declared force majeure and halted all production, releasing it from contractual delivery obligations. The fallout was immediate. Qatar’s forced shutdown cut its LNG output by 17 % and disrupted the supply chain that fuels Pakistan, which sources almost all of its imported gas from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Pakistan’s LNG arrivals plummeted from 12 shipments in January to just two in March. Monthly cargo data from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) show that the country received between eight and twelve shipments a month through 2025, but only two arrived after the conflict began. Price pressure followed. On 13 February state‑owned Pakistan State Oil and Pakistan LNG Limited bought eight cargoes at an average of $10.47 per MMBtu (totaling $257.1 million). By 12 March the two cargoes that did arrive cost $12.49 per MMBtu – a 19 % increase in just one month. Long‑term contracts have left Pakistan with little flexibility. Two government‑to‑government agreements with Qatar, spanning 15 and 10 years, commit the country to nine shipments a month. Even as domestic demand fell – LNG’s share of Asian markets dropped from ~30 % in 2020 to ~18 % in 2025 – the contracts remained binding. Solarisation has been a double‑edged sword. By 2025 Pakistan installed 34 GW of solar capacity, with about 25 GW feeding the national grid, driving an 11 % decline in overall electricity demand between 2022 and 2025. Gas‑fired power plants built for imported LNG are now under‑utilised, especially during daylight hours. Analysts warn that the surplus was predictable. “Pakistan’s energy planning has been locked into long‑term contracts with little room for adjustment,” says Haneea Isaad of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). The resulting circular debt now stands at 3.3 trillion rupees (≈ $11 billion), and the government is negotiating to off‑load 177 unwanted shipments worth $5.6 billion through 2031. With Qatar’s LNG shipments effectively halted, the country faces a potential shortfall of more than 21 % of its power generation capacity. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority confirmed that LNG supplies are under force majeure, while coal imports from South Africa and Indonesia continue. To mitigate the gap, Pakistan is reviving domestic gas production that had been throttled during the surplus period. Roughly 350–400 million cubic feet per day of domestic gas were previously held back for LNG imports, now being released to the grid. Nevertheless, analysts caution that even with restored domestic gas, imported coal and hydropower, “the energy shortage may persist, especially during the peak summer months.” Summer pressure is already building. The State of Industry Report 2025 recorded peak electricity demand of over 33,000 MW last summer, while winter demand sits around 15,000 MW, helped by solar generation of 9,000–10,000 MW daily. Furnace oil, the primary backup fuel, now costs 35 rupees per unit (≈ $0.12), more than double since the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Consumers with grid electricity face higher bills and possible outages; industrial users reliant on gas risk production cuts; those equipped with rooftop solar and battery storage are best insulated. “Returning to the spot market is unlikely given Pakistan’s dire financial position, and competing with wealthier nations would price the country out,” Isaad warns. “The realistic outcome may be planned load‑shedding of two to three hours daily.”

Kuwait has been hit by Iranian missile and drone strikes, targeting a crucial power and desalination plant, as well as the Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery. The attacks, which occurred on Friday, have raised concerns about the stability of the region and the potential for further escalation. The power and desalination plant was struck before midday local time, with the extent of the damage still unknown. The plant is critical for Kuwait's water supply, as the country is highly dependent on desalinated water. An Indian national was killed in a similar attack on March 30, and Iran denied claims it launched the attacks, blaming Israel instead. The Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery, one of the largest in the Middle East, was targeted in early morning drone strikes, resulting in fires in several operational units. No employees were injured, but emergency and firefighting teams were dispatched to the scene, and environmental authorities monitored the area for air quality. The attacks are part of a broader escalation of tensions in the Gulf region, with Iran launching retaliatory strikes against US and Israeli targets. The United Arab Emirates' defence ministry reported that it had intercepted 19 ballistic missiles and 26 drones on Thursday alone, while Saudi Arabia destroyed a drone in its airspace overnight. Iran's army spokesperson warned of impending attacks on regional power plants, while US President Donald Trump warned of intensifying strikes on Iran's infrastructure. The situation remains volatile, with concerns about the potential for further attacks and the impact on regional stability.

President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric on Thursday, stating that the United States has yet to begin a full‑scale campaign against Iran’s remaining infrastructure and hinting that bridges and electric power plants could be next targets. The comment followed the release of video showing a U.S. strike on the newly completed B1 bridge that connects Tehran to Karaj, an attack that Iran reports killed eight people and injured 95. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the strike on civilian infrastructure, describing it as evidence of the “defeat and moral collapse” of the aggressor. In a statement posted on X, he warned that such attacks would not force Iran to surrender. The conflict, now entering its fifth week, has begun to ripple through regional and global markets. Instability around the Strait of Hormuz—a vital conduit for oil and gas—has prompted nations to scramble for alternative shipping routes. Satellite images this week captured smoke over Iran’s Qeshm Island, underscoring the heightened risk to infrastructure near the strategic waterway. Amid stalled negotiations with Iran’s new leadership, Trump’s intensified language comes as the United Nations Security Council prepares to vote on a resolution that could authorize member states to use “defensive means” to keep the strait open. Araghchi warned that any provocative action in the Council would only worsen the situation. Iranian media have begun listing potential retaliation targets, naming major bridges in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan as possible future strike points. The semi‑official Fars News Agency highlighted these crossings as vulnerable following the Karaj bridge attack. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for recent strikes on U.S.-linked industrial sites in the Gulf, including steel facilities in Abu Dhabi and aluminium plants in Bahrain. The IRGC warned that if attacks on Iranian industries continue, “the next response will be much more painful” and will focus on the occupier’s core infrastructure. Health infrastructure has also suffered. Iran’s Health Ministry reported that U.S. and Israeli raids severely damaged the Pasteur Institute of Iran, a key research center for diseases such as cholera and COVID‑19. Ministry spokesperson Hossein Kermanpour called the strike “a direct assault on international health security.” WHO Director‑General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus echoed the condemnation, noting that the institute is now unable to deliver health services. The WHO has documented more than 20 attacks on Iranian healthcare facilities since the start of March. In a separate claim, Iranian officials said air defenses downed a second U.S. F‑35 fighter jet over central Iran, suggesting the pilot’s survival was unlikely. The United States has not responded to the allegation. Israel’s military reported a fresh barrage of Iranian missiles, which triggered air‑defence alerts and caused damage to homes, vehicles, and a train station in Tel Aviv. The widening hostilities, combined with threats to critical energy and health infrastructure, highlight the growing regional volatility and its potential to disrupt global markets.

Iran launched a new barrage of missiles at Israel following President Donald Trump’s televised claim that Washington had "destroyed the Iranian military" and was on the brink of completing its war objectives. Trump’s address, delivered hours after he asserted that Tehran had requested a ceasefire—a claim Tehran promptly denied—also featured a pledge to "finish the job" and a statement that the core strategic goals of the United States were "nearing completion." Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized that Iran holds no hostility toward the peoples of the United States, Europe or neighboring states, while urging the American public to question the motives behind the continued conflict. In Tehran, the war has intensified: US‑Israeli air campaigns continue to cause casualties and infrastructure damage, and Iranian forces persist with missile and drone counter‑attacks. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that, despite receiving messages from Washington, "trust remains at zero" for any negotiation. Senior political figure Kamal Kharazi, a former foreign minister, was seriously wounded when a strike hit his home in Tehran, killing his wife. Kharazi had been involved in back‑channel talks through Pakistan aimed at reviving negotiations. In the Gulf, the United Arab Emirates reported intercepting incoming Iranian missiles and drones, and a tanker off Doha sustained damage from a projectile, though no casualties were reported. President Trump publicly thanked Gulf allies, pledging that the United States would not allow them to be harmed. Within the United States, analysts such as Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute noted that Trump’s speech offered little new information, essentially summarising recent tweets and suggesting a lack of a clear operational plan. Israel’s military confirmed that its air‑defence systems were actively intercepting Iranian missiles, but the attack wounded 14 civilians, including an 11‑year‑old girl, near Tel Aviv. Israeli officials said the timeline outlined by Trump aligns with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s assessment of the campaign. Regional spill‑over continued: an Israeli strike on Beirut killed a senior Hezbollah commander and at least seven civilians, while an air strike on Iraq’s Anbar province killed seven fighters and injured 13 at a military healthcare clinic. On the economic front, the World Bank expressed "extreme concern" about the conflict’s impact on inflation, employment and food security, and is consulting member states on emergency measures. Despite the turmoil, global equity markets rallied and oil prices fell after Trump’s optimistic remarks, indicating short‑term investor relief.

Iran launched a fresh wave of missiles toward Israel in what appears to be a direct response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent televised address. In that speech, Trump asserted that Washington had effectively destroyed the Iranian military and was on the brink of fulfilling its war goals in the region. The presidential remarks came just hours after Trump claimed that Iran had asked for a ceasefire. Tehran promptly denied the request, emphasizing that it had not sought any pause in hostilities. This escalation underscores the volatile dynamics of the Middle East, where diplomatic rhetoric from Washington can quickly translate into kinetic actions on the ground. The missile barrage not only heightens the risk of broader conflict between Iran and Israel but also places the United States in a precarious position, having publicly declared a near‑victory over Tehran while its ally faces direct attacks. Analysts note that Trump's statements may be aimed at bolstering domestic support by portraying a decisive end to a protracted regional struggle. However, the Iranian denial of a ceasefire request suggests that diplomatic channels remain strained, and the likelihood of further military exchanges is increasing. Regional observers warn that continued missile exchanges could destabilize already fragile peace efforts, potentially drawing in additional actors and complicating any forthcoming negotiations.

Qatar's Defence Ministry has confirmed that missiles launched from Iran struck an oil tanker within the country's territorial waters. The incident has heightened concerns over regional stability and security.In a related development, US President Donald Trump has stated that Iran does not have to make a deal for him to end the war and suggested that the conflict could be resolved in two to three weeks. These comments come amid ongoing tensions between the US and Iran.

The families of British citizens held in the United Arab Emirates over allegations that they shared images of the conflict with Iran have expressed frustration at the British government's failure to help.Several British citizens are among more than 100 foreign nationals who have been detained under draconian Emirate rules that outlaw publishing or sharing material that could 'disturb public security'.UK government ministers have refused to condemn the arrests, amid claims they are too fearful of offending the Emirates because of their economic clout.The campaign group Dubai Watch, which is supporting nine British detainees, said their identities could not be revealed for fear of reprisals. But it has shown the Guardian anonymised correspondence from their increasingly anxious families.A mother whose daughter is being held wrote: 'This experience is exhausting, mentally and emotionally.'She described reading media reports about the continuing conflict in which Iran has retaliated against US and Israelis strikes by firing drones and missiles against its Gulf neighbours, including the UAE.She said: 'I have just read another article, and quite frankly I could do one purely on the inadequacies and sycophantic responses from this [UK] embassy.'She also expressed increasing fears for her daughter's safety as attacks continued. The mother said: 'I spoke to [my daughter] last night and they are no longer allowed to go outside in the courtyard as it's now deemed too dangerous to do so. This is an even bigger worry as they are all just sitting ducks.'Another message from a woman whose husband had been detained under the same law said the case had been 'mishandled'. She added: 'We are scared because nobody is telling us the truth. Can you please help us.'Police in Abu Dhabi said those detained had 'filmed sites and events and disseminated inaccurate information via social media platforms during the ongoing events, an action that could stir public opinion and spread rumours among community members'. In a statement, the officials said these 'violations' amounted to a 'misuse of social media'.Daisy Cooper, the deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats, confirmed that one of the detainees was a St Albans' constituent. She said their family was frustrated by the lack of consular help.Cooper told the Guardian: 'I'm deeply concerned that my constituent has been held with very little contact with their family, with no clear access to legal counsel, and no confirmation that UK consular officials have been permitted to visit them. The family are distressed and desperate for information about their wellbeing.'Cooper also criticised the UAE's round-up of anyone it has accused of sharing images of the conflict. She said: 'The response from the authorities appears wholly disproportionate given the nature of the allegations.'The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office confirmed that five UK nationals were receiving consular assistance in the UAE.David Haigh, a human rights lawyer and founder of Dubai Watch, said: 'There's an awful lot more than five cases. The embassy is overwhelmed.'He added: 'There hasn't been any government intervention because it would offend the UAE and they don't want to do that. Impotent is the best way to describe the response. They're too scared – it's all about the money and investment from the UAE.'

During an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council, humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher pressed members to outline concrete measures for safeguarding Lebanese civilians as Israel intensifies its ground offensive and aerial bombardment.Fletcher highlighted the stark parallel between Israel’s stated objectives in Lebanon and the ongoing genocidal war in Gaza, asking the council how it intends to prevent a repeat of the humanitarian catastrophe witnessed there.Since the escalation on 2 March, more than 1.1 million people have been forced from their homes across Lebanon, a displacement surge linked to Israel’s retaliatory strikes after Hezbollah fired missiles into northern Israel.In a video address, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz announced that, once the current operation concludes, the Israeli army will establish a security zone extending to the Litani River and maintain control over the area, effectively creating a new occupied territory.Israeli forces have pushed deeper into the south this week, claiming the moves are necessary to shield northern Israeli communities from missile attacks. Human‑rights organisations have condemned the expansion, warning that targeting civilian infrastructure and preventing residents from returning would exacerbate the crisis.The heightened conflict has also claimed the lives of three UN peacekeepers. Two Indonesian soldiers were killed on Monday when an unexplained explosion destroyed their vehicle near the village of Bani Haiyyan, while a third Indonesian peacekeeper died the previous day after a projectile detonated at a UNIFIL post near Aadshit al‑Qusayr.UN Under‑Secretary‑General for Peace Operations Jean‑Pierre Lacroix said early investigations suggest a roadside blast was responsible for the Monday deaths, emphasizing that such incidents must not occur and that peacekeepers should never be targeted.A spokesperson for Secretary‑General Antonio Guterres condemned the attacks, stating they breach international law and could constitute war crimes. The statement called for accountability and urged all parties to uphold their legal obligations to protect UN personnel and property at all times.

Coordinated strikes by United States and Israeli forces hit Tehran, Isfahan and several other Iranian cities on Tuesday, prompting widespread power outages and extensive damage to civilian sites. The Ministry of Energy confirmed that shrapnel from the raids ruptured a primary power‑transfer line, but the outage was restored within a few hours. Among the most critical targets was the Tofigh Darou pharmaceutical complex in the Karaj industrial zone. The facility, which supplies over 90% of Iran’s domestically produced medicines—including cancer and multiple‑sclerosis treatments—sustained heavy damage from multiple projectiles. In central Iran, Isfahan endured a barrage of heavy bunker‑buster bombs over a nearby mountainous area, likely aimed at military installations. The explosions triggered secondary blasts that illuminated the night sky and produced reverberating shockwaves across the city. North‑west of Tehran, in Zanjan, a building identified as the administrative department of the Hosseinieh Azam religious centre was struck, resulting in at least four fatalities and several injuries. Iranian authorities now claim that more than 2,000 people have been killed by US‑Israeli attacks since the conflict erupted on 28 February, with residential blocks, schools, hospitals and historic sites also affected. Additional targets this week included civilian nuclear facilities, major steel producers, petrochemical plants, and the Iran University of Science and Technology, where an imaging satellite was developed. A professor linked to Iran’s missile programme and his two children were assassinated at their home in northern Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated threats to strike Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure, power plants and water‑desalination facilities. Despite the onslaught, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to project defiance. A spokesperson for the Khatam al‑Anbiya Central Headquarters declared that Tehran’s adversaries are “humiliated and on the path of destruction,” while senior commander Ali Fadavi warned that American warships are vulnerable and allegedly transmit false transponder signals. The IRGC also released footage of ballistic missiles aimed at Israel and surrounding nations, and claimed to have downed two U.S. MQ‑9 Reaper drones, promising retaliatory strikes against technology firms linked to the United States and Israel. Domestically, the judiciary announced the execution of two members of the foreign‑based Mojahedin‑e‑Khalq (MEK) group, labeling them terrorists. This follows a series of recent executions tied to the January protests and broader dissent. Authorities also issued new indictments against roughly 200 individuals accused of assisting the U.S. and Israel, including alleged “mercenaries” who disseminated strike footage abroad. Penalties for national‑security offenses now encompass asset confiscation and capital punishment. President Masoud Pezeshkian convened his first cabinet meeting since the war’s onset in a makeshift, blue‑covered space, emphasizing that any peace negotiations will safeguard Iran’s “dignity, security and national interests.” Israel’s Channel 14 reported that Pezeshkian sought greater negotiating leverage with the United States, a request allegedly rebuffed by IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi.