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The Gulf region breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday after Iran and the United States agreed to a two-week truce, halting over five weeks of escalating attacks and hostile rhetoric.However, Gulf states are expressing caution, concerned that the US, seeking a swift exit, might agree to terms granting Iran some control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which one fifth of the world's oil and natural liquefied gas passes.Iran had nearly brought traffic through the strait to a standstill in response to joint US-Israeli attacks on its soil since February 28. Under the truce, Iran has agreed to halt attacks for two weeks in exchange for resumed maritime transit in the key waterway.Despite this, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are stressing that any deal must result in a permanent, long-term arrangement to keep the strait open. They fear a weakened yet intact Iranian leadership could use the strait as leverage, leaving them under constant threat of disruption and economic blackmail.“There is a quiet but palpable concern that President Trump, eager for a quick political victory, could tolerate some Iranian leverage over the strait in exchange for a fragile truce, prioritising optics over Gulf realities,” said Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi Arabia-based scholar at the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center.The GCC countries, which have faced near-daily Iranian missile and drone attacks, have welcomed the truce but emphasize that the Strait of Hormuz must reopen. They are also concerned about Iran's future influence over the strait, with a Bahrain-sponsored UN Security Council resolution calling for countries to use defensive missions to keep the maritime chokepoint open being vetoed by Russia and China.A further escalation could have devastating consequences for the GCC economies, undoing decades of work to make the region a safe hub for finance, tourism, and culture. Analysts say GCC countries have stepped up diplomacy in the lead-up to the conflict, but officials across the region have warned Iran should not mistake their inaction as a sign of weakness.“The Gulf will leave no stone unturned if Iran continues to take the path of aggression,” said Hamad Althunayyan, a political analyst and professor at Kuwait University. “The Gulf expects its interests to be represented, and included, in any deal with Iran.”

President Donald Trump has launched a scathing attack on NATO, expressing disappointment with the alliance's reluctance to support the US in its conflict with Iran. In a post on his TruthSocial platform, Trump wrote in capital letters: "NATO wasn't there when we needed them, and they won't be there if we need them again".The remarks came after a two-hour meeting with NATO's Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, at the White House. The meeting took place a day after the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. Trump's comments have raised concerns about the future of the transatlantic alliance, which he has repeatedly called a "paper tiger".Rutte, known as the "Trump whisperer" for his ability to maintain a productive relationship with the US president, said that Trump was "clearly disappointed with many NATO allies". However, Rutte also pushed back against some of Trump's broader criticism, highlighting the contributions of many European nations to NATO.In addition to his criticism of NATO, Trump also appeared to revive his threat to seize Greenland from Denmark, a move that had previously roiled the alliance. "Remember Greenland, that big, poorly run, piece of ice!!!" he wrote.The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump was considering punishing some NATO members he believed were unhelpful during the conflict by moving US troops out of their countries. However, Rutte declined to comment directly on the report.NATO, formed in 1949 to counter the Soviet Union, has been the cornerstone of Western security. The alliance has only activated its mutual defence clause on one occasion, following the September 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center in the US.

The Trump administration appears to have found a diplomatic off-ramp in its relations with Iran, but the question remains as to what concessions or implications this might entail. Details of the off-ramp strategy are crucial in understanding the broader geopolitical shifts in the Middle East.Analyzing the potential costs of this diplomatic maneuver is essential for grasping the future trajectory of US-Iran relations and their impact on regional stability.

At a Wednesday briefing, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt framed the ongoing US‑Israel war against Iran as a "test" that NATO failed, hinting that President Donald Trump is weighing a possible withdrawal from the alliance. She quoted the president saying the partnership had turned its back on the American people over the past six weeks. Shortly thereafter, Trump met with NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte at the White House. Both described the discussion as "frank and open," with Rutte acknowledging logistical support and base access from allies, but noting the absence of direct military contributions. During a CNN interview, host Jake Tapper asked Rutte whether the president intended to pull the United States out of NATO or at least reduce its backing. Rutte admitted there was disappointment, yet emphasized he had listened carefully to Trump’s arguments and praised the president’s leadership. Since assuming office in 2025, Trump has intensified pressure on NATO members to raise defence spending. At the 2025 NATO summit, members agreed to a non‑binding target of 5 % of GDP by 2035. Spain’s request for an exemption sparked a year‑long public denouncement by Trump. Earlier, Trump threatened to seize the Danish territory of Greenland, claiming its strategic value, though the United States has since softened that stance. Nevertheless, he continues to argue that US control of Greenland is essential, despite opposition from local residents and European leaders. The Wall Street Journal reported that the administration is evaluating the closure of U.S. bases or the redeployment of troops from countries such as Spain and Germany as retaliation for their limited engagement in the Iran conflict. When pressed about a potential NATO exit, Leavitt confirmed that the president "has discussed" the option and may address it after his meeting with Rutte. The president’s relationship with Rutte remains close; the Dutch leader has visited the White House multiple times during Trump’s second term. Rutte warned that NATO "will not work" without U.S. support, underscoring the strategic stakes of any American pull‑back. The unfolding debate highlights a deepening rift between Washington and its European partners at a time when the broader geopolitical landscape is already destabilised by the Iran war.

The White House has reiterated that the United States continues to reject any uranium enrichment inside Iran, reaffirming that US President Donald Trump did not agree to a 'wish list' submitted by Tehran. The US stance on uranium enrichment remains a major point of contention in talks between the two countries.Trump's spokesperson, Karoline Leavitt, suggested that the 10-point proposal put forward by Iran as the basis for a ceasefire in the US-Israel war on Iran differs from the proposal published by the government in Tehran. The proposal included Iran's right to enrich uranium, which the US has rejected."The president's red lines, namely the end of Iranian enrichment in Iran, have not changed," Leavitt said. This stance has been a major sticking point in previous talks between Tehran and Washington.Domestic uranium enrichment has been a contentious issue, with Iran insisting on enriching its own uranium as a national right, while the Trump administration has pushed for dismantling the Iranian nuclear programme altogether. The US and Israel have claimed victory in the conflict, while Iran has also claimed success.After more than 38 days of war, Washington and Tehran announced a two-week ceasefire that will see the US stop its attacks and Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The first round of negotiations will take place in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Saturday, led by US Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner.However, Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf cast doubt over the fate of the talks, citing US and Israeli violations of the ceasefire. The talks' success remains uncertain amid these tensions.

Residents of Tehran and much of Iran are breathing a sigh of relief after a two-week ceasefire was announced, bringing an end to daily bombardments. The ceasefire, agreed upon by Iran and the US with mediation from Pakistan, has allowed some traffic to return to the streets of the Iranian capital during daylight hours.Despite the temporary reprieve, Tehran remains far from its usual bustling state, having been targeted by several thousand munitions since February 28. The Iranian capital is home to more than 10 million people. Air defence systems were activated for short periods several times since the ceasefire was announced overnight, but there were no reports of impacts or any official explanation for the activations.People across Tehran are debating whether the ceasefire will hold and what the future may hold for them. A young man noted, “Looks like the ceasefire will continue. I heard the Israelis are opening up their airspace more,” referring to an announcement by Israeli authorities that flights will resume from Ben Gurion Airport.However, others are more pessimistic, especially after two critical islands off southern Iran were attacked on Wednesday morning, hitting oil facilities. It is unclear who was behind the attack. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it shot down a drone in the southern province of Fars.Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain also reported attacks on their territories by missiles and drones from Iran, with Iranian state television confirming this was in retaliation for the post-ceasefire oil attacks. Tehran said it was ready to restart military operations if attacked again.On Tuesday, Iranians had been worried about the targeting of critical civilian infrastructure, such as power plants and bridges, after a threat from US President Donald Trump to end “civilisation” in a country with one of the world’s oldest civilisations. The ceasefire was announced shortly before the midnight GMT deadline that Trump had set for an agreement to be reached.The Israeli military intensified its attacks in the hours preceding the ceasefire, hitting electricity outposts, bridges, and the railway network. Warplanes also struck the Iranian Aluminium Company in Arak, damaging the country’s largest aluminium production facility.Even after the ceasefire, Israel continued attacking Lebanon, killing more than 250 people in a devastating day of attacks on Wednesday. Israel said it was targeting Iran’s ally Hezbollah, but civilian locations across Lebanon were hit.Trump hailed what he described as a decisive victory against Iran while announcing the ceasefire, but his top general emphasised that the deal only signifies a pause and combat operations could start once again if no final deal is reached. The US military said it struck 13,000 targets across Iran in less than six weeks of war.In Iran, similar proclamations of victory and celebrations were broadcast from Iranian state television. A statement from the Supreme National Security Council urged supporters of the government to trust in the system and refrain from making “divisive commentary”.The council also stressed that affairs were being overseen by Mojtaba Khamenei, who was declared Iran’s supreme leader after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on the first day of the war on February 28.

Israeli forces have carried out a devastating bombardment across Lebanon, killing at least 254 people and wounding 1,165 others in air strikes that targeted areas in Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, Mount Lebanon, Sidon, and several villages in southern Lebanon.The Israeli military said that the attack was its largest coordinated assault on Lebanon since it started a new military operation in the country on March 2, “targeting more than 100 Hezbollah command centres and military sites”.The attacks have sparked widespread international condemnation, with leaders from around the world calling for an end to the violence. Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called the attacks a “full-fledged war crime,” while Hezbollah said it had a “right” to respond to the attacks.International Reactions:• Iran: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that it will respond to the attacks on Lebanon if Israel does not stop the assault.• US: President Donald Trump said Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire deal with Iran due to Hezbollah.• Qatar: The foreign ministry condemned the “brutal series” of Israeli attacks on Lebanon, calling them a “dangerous escalation and a flagrant violation of the sovereignty of the sister Lebanese Republic.”• Egypt: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs called Israel’s attacks on Lebanon had a “premeditated intent” to undermine regional and international efforts to reduce escalation.• UN: The United Nations strongly condemned the strikes by Israel across Lebanon that resulted in significant civilian casualties.

Israel's heaviest and deadliest air attacks on Lebanon in years have left the country reeling, with at least 254 people killed and over 1,160 injured. The strikes, which occurred in dozens of locations across Beirut, its suburbs, the south, and the eastern Bekaa Valley, have sparked fears of a rising toll as more victims are recovered from the rubble.The attacks came hours after a Pakistani-negotiated ceasefire between the US and Iran took effect, but Israel and the US argued that Lebanon was not included in the agreement. US President Donald Trump described Lebanon as a 'separate skirmish,' while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed the ceasefire 'does not include Lebanon.'Netanyahu's goal appears to be taking advantage of the fluid situation to maximize operational achievements in Lebanon, according to Dania Arayssi, a senior analyst at New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy. 'He must take into account that a US-Iran deal might include ceasing the war on Iranian proxies, which would greatly complicate the Israeli war effort against Hezbollah in Lebanon.'The conflict escalated in early March when Israel intensified its war on Lebanon, following a salvo of rockets launched by Hezbollah. Since then, over 1,700 people have been killed and more than 1.2 million displaced. Hezbollah has claimed its right to respond to the attacks, affirming that it will resist occupation and respond to aggression.The airstrikes, which included over 100 attacks in fewer than 10 minutes, targeted Hezbollah headquarters and military targets, but many strikes were in densely populated residential areas. Hospitals were overwhelmed, and people were forced to flee their homes, with some attempting to return to their homes in the south amid confusion over Lebanon's inclusion in the ceasefire.'People are afraid,' said Najib Merhe, owner of a restaurant in the Manara neighborhood. 'This kind of situation no one can afford nor endure.'

US President Donald Trump has announced that countries supplying Iran with military weapons will face immediate 50% tariffs on all goods sold to the United States, with no exemptions. This move comes hours after Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Tehran.In a social media post, Trump stated that 'A Country supplying Military Weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions!'However, experts have raised questions about the legal authority behind Trump's announcement, as the Supreme Court struck down his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad global tariffs in February. The IEEPA has been used extensively for decades to back financial sanctions against Iran, Russia, and North Korea.Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Al Jazeera that 'it's a lot more complicated to do that after IEEPA was struck down. There's no immediate policy lever and authorisation that is available for the US to do that. So they need either an act of Congress or need to adapt some other trade tool.'Trump did not specify which countries could face punitive tariffs, but China and Russia have helped Iran build military capacity to counter US and Israeli pressure. The US imports from Russia have fallen sharply since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the wave of financial sanctions imposed on Moscow.Josh Lipsky, vice president and chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council, said that 'this is a China-related threat, the way I read it. And China will read it that way.' However, he also noted that Trump was unlikely to follow through with new tariffs in the near term because that would derail his planned trip to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in mid-May.