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Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.

UK businesses are planning to raise their prices more rapidly in the coming months due to the escalating costs triggered by the Iran conflict. A recent survey conducted by the Bank of England among over 2,000 chief financial officers revealed that companies now anticipate increasing their prices by 3.7% over the next year. This marks an increase from 3.4% in February, while the expectation of inflation across the economy has also risen from 3% to 3.5%. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly driven up oil and gas prices, leading to predictions of wider price rises as these higher costs impact industries. The UK Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has met with retail bosses to discuss the risks of supply shortages and price increases. There is also pressure on her to mitigate the impact of likely rises in household gas and electricity bills before next winter and to reconsider plans for a 5p per liter increase in fuel duty set to take effect by next March. Bank of England policymakers are closely monitoring UK companies' pricing intentions as they consider whether to raise interest rates in the coming months from their current level of 3.75%. Financial markets are currently pricing in two interest rate rises by the end of the year, reflecting a sharp turnaround from expectations of rate cuts before the conflict began. However, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has cautioned that markets may be getting ahead of themselves, and weak consumer demand may prevent companies from passing on cost increases to their customers. He noted that businesses often report an absence of pricing power. Inflation on the consumer price index was steady at 3% in February but is now expected to rise.

The global oil market is being significantly influenced by online prediction platforms such as Polymarket, with energy traders using data from these platforms to inform their multimillion-dollar trades. Market experts have noted that Polymarket's datafeeds are being used to create algorithms that impact trading in the global Brent crude futures market. The growing reliance on Polymarket has raised concerns that anonymous account holders may be using insider knowledge to place bets, potentially influencing pricing in the global oil market. One energy trader noted that Polymarket had become the best predictor of the oil market's direction since the US-Israel war with Iran triggered a global oil crisis. Ajay Parmar, head of oil trading at ICIS, stated that betting markets have a long history of strong prediction accuracy, and traders are increasingly turning to Polymarket for market indicators. Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at Energy Aspects, also confirmed the adoption of prediction markets as a trading tool, noting that any data with alpha is considered in modern markets. The US investment bank Goldman Sachs has included analysis of prediction-market data in its oil market research, and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has launched a trading tool providing a data feed of Polymarket's prediction markets to help traders make informed decisions. However, not all commodity traders are convinced by Polymarket's track record in predicting market-moving events. One trading analyst noted that Polymarket has made bad calls during the crisis, and that hedge funds may be more interested in the platform than traditional traders.

Global markets were jolted on Thursday as oil prices skyrocketed and stocks sank following a televised address by Donald Trump, in which he vowed to take 'extremely hard' action against Iran in the coming weeks. This development has dashed investor hopes of a swift resolution to the conflict in the Middle East.Brent crude prices jumped by 8% to surpass $109 a barrel, reversing the previous day's decline when hopes of de-escalation had briefly pushed the international benchmark below $100 a barrel.Asian markets were particularly hard hit, with Japan's Nikkei index falling 2.4%, China's CSI 300 index dropping 1.36%, and South Korea's Kospi tumbling 4.8%. In Europe, Germany's Dax fell 2%, France's Cac 40 dropped 1.15%, and Italy's FTSE Mib was down 1.45%. The FTSE 100 in London initially opened 0.7% lower but later stabilized, buoyed by gains in fossil fuel companies BP and Shell, which rose 4.5% and 3.1% respectively.Government borrowing costs also increased, with the yield on 10-year UK gilts rising four basis points to 4.886% and the two-year UK bond yield rising six basis points to 4.36%, reflecting growing fears of inflation due to higher energy costs.Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, noted that investors are betting on the impact of delayed oil supply deliveries from the Gulf, given Trump's failure to provide guidance on a potential end to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. 'Instead of 'no more war', we got 'no, more war!', Beauchamp said, highlighting the market's concerns about hundreds of millions of barrels of oil that may not be delivered soon.The US dollar gained 0.6% against a basket of major currencies as investors sought safe-haven assets, pushing the pound down by almost a cent to $1.321. The market turmoil is already affecting consumers, with the Bank of England warning that 1.3 million more homeowners may see their mortgage payments rise due to financial shocks from the Iran conflict.Additionally, data from the RAC showed that petrol and diesel prices jumped by a record amount in March, with the average price of a litre of unleaded petrol rising by 20p to 152.83p by the end of the month, surpassing the previous monthly record.

In a primetime address to the nation, Donald Trump claimed that the US war in Iran is 'nearing completion' and that the US has accomplished 'all of America's military objectives.' However, the conflict continues to escalate, with thousands of deaths in Iran and across the Middle East, and oil prices soaring due to the closure of the strategic strait of Hormuz.Trump argued that Iran's navy and air force have been decimated, leaving the country weak and 'no longer a threat' to the US and the world. He also claimed that the US has become energy independent and blamed Iran for a 'short-term' rise in gas prices. However, the economic pain caused by the conflict is evident, with the cost of gas surging past an average of $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022.The conflict has also caused significant human suffering, with estimates suggesting that at least 1,900 people have been killed and 20,000 injured in Iran since the war began. In Lebanon, more than 1,300 people have been killed, and in Israel, 19 people have been killed and 515 injured. Additionally, at least 13 American service members have been killed, with hundreds more troops wounded.Despite Trump's claims of progress, the war is grinding on, with thousands of US troops remaining positioned in the region, providing the option of a broader ground campaign after weeks of airstrikes targeting Iran. The US president has also faced criticism for his handling of the conflict, with mixed and contradictory signals about the US's objectives and lashing out at US allies for not joining the war effort.

Washington, D.C. – In a historic session, the United States Supreme Court examined the Trump administration’s bid to curtail the long‑standing practice of granting citizenship to anyone born on American soil. The hearing drew a sizable crowd of civil‑rights and immigration advocates who decried the proposal as unconstitutional. Lawyers representing the administration argued that the 14th Amendment has been misread for over a century and that citizenship should be limited to children of parents who are legally domiciled in the United States. They contended that the phrase “subject to the jurisdiction thereof” permits the exclusion of infants born to undocumented or temporary‑status parents. Opposing counsel from the ACLU and other groups countered that the amendment’s language, reinforced by the 1898 United States v. Wong Kim Ark decision and the 1952 Immigration and Nationality Act, unequivocally guarantees citizenship regardless of parental status. “The rule was enshrined in the 14th Amendment to keep it out of reach of any official who might try to destroy it,” ACLU attorney Cecillia Wang said. The proceedings were underscored by President Donald Trump’s unprecedented presence in the courtroom, making him the first sitting president to attend Supreme Court oral arguments. Trump left the hearing abruptly, later posting on Truth Social that the United States is “the only country in the world stupid enough to allow ‘birthright’ citizenship.” Protesters such as 21‑year‑old Luis Villaguzman of LULAC expressed personal stakes, noting that the policy would strip benefits from pregnant immigrant mothers and jeopardize their children’s future. “This hits close to home,” he said. Justices probed the administration’s claims, with Justice Kentanji Brown Jackson asking, “Who is domiciled?” while Justice Samuel Alito highlighted the repeated references to “domicile” in the Wong Kim Ark opinion. Justice Brett Kavanaugh questioned why Congress had not clarified the citizenship scope in the 1952 statute, and Justice Amy Coney Barrett warned of the logistical chaos the order could create. Legal scholars warned that the executive order could affect roughly 255,000 infants annually, according to a joint analysis by the Migration Policy Institute and Penn State’s Population Research Institute, potentially creating a “self‑perpetuating, multigenerational underclass.” Outside the court, immigration advocates emphasized the broader implications: the measure could disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of children, many of Latino heritage, and compound the administration’s aggressive deportation agenda. The Court has not set a date for a final ruling, but the hearing offered a glimpse into the judicial scrutiny the case will face as the nation watches a potential reshaping of a core constitutional right.

The United Kingdom is set to convene a virtual meeting of 35 countries to assess measures to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical Gulf waterway that has been effectively closed due to the US-Israeli war on Iran. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that UK Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper would host the meeting on Thursday.The meeting aims to “assess all viable diplomatic and political measures that we can take to restore freedom of navigation, guarantee the safety of trapped ships and seafarers and resume the movement of vital commodities”, according to Starmer.Countries around the world have raised serious concerns about Iran’s effective closure of the strait, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas supplies transit. The closure has sent global energy prices soaring and pushed nations to announce that they would release some of their strategic oil and gas reserves in an effort to lessen the crisis.Starmer emphasized that reopening the strait “will not be easy” and that countries that recently signed a statement saying they were ready “to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz” would take part in this week’s talks.In addition to the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the Netherlands are among the countries to have signed it. The UK and other European countries have faced condemnation from US President Donald Trump, who has accused them of both failing to take action to reopen the strait and not providing sufficient support to Washington in its war effort.

Russia has pledged to continue providing assistance to Cuba, following the delivery of a Russian-flagged tanker carrying 730,000 barrels of oil to the island nation. This shipment marks the first crude oil delivery to Cuba in three months, providing much-needed relief to the country's struggling energy grid.Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that Cuba is Russia's closest friend and partner in the Caribbean, and that Russia will not abandon it. Zakharova also expressed solidarity with Cuba, calling for the US to lift its blockade on the independent sovereign state.The oil shipment, which arrived at the Bay of Matanzas, is expected to produce approximately 180,000 barrels of diesel, enough to meet Cuba's daily demand for nine or 10 days. This temporary reprieve comes as Cuba faces an energy crisis, exacerbated by the loss of Venezuelan oil supplies following the removal of President Nicolas Maduro in January.The energy crisis has led to frequent blackouts and brought hospitals, public transportation, and farm production to the brink of collapse. The Cuban government has welcomed the shipment, with Energy and Mines Minister Vicente de la O Levy expressing gratitude to Russia for its support.Russia's actions have drawn attention from the US, with President Donald Trump stating that he had 'no problem' with Russia sending oil to Cuba for humanitarian reasons. However, Trump also criticized Cuba's leadership, saying that the island nation's problems would not be solved by receiving oil shipments.

Iran has strongly denied US President Donald Trump's claim that the Iranian president has requested a ceasefire amid the ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel. A senior Iranian official stated that there has been no such request, contradicting Trump's post on social media.According to Al Jazeera's Ali Hashem, reporting from Tehran, the Iranian government is refuting Trump's claim, stating that they have not asked for any ceasefire. This development occurs as the US and Israel continue their military actions against Iran, leading to soaring global energy prices and widespread opposition among the US public.Trump's claim came just hours before he was scheduled to deliver a speech in Washington, DC, which the White House described as an 'important update on Iran'. In his social media post, Trump mentioned that his administration would consider the purported ceasefire request once the Strait of Hormuz is 'open, free, and clear'. He also threatened to continue 'blasting Iran into oblivion' until this condition is met.The ongoing conflict has raised serious concerns about a global economic downturn, particularly due to the critical nature of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquified natural gas supplies transit. Experts, such as Mohamad Elmasry from the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, have expressed concerns over Trump's aggressive rhetoric and its implications for civilian infrastructure in Iran.Al Jazeera's Alan Fisher, reporting from the White House, suggested that Trump is unlikely to announce an immediate end to the war during his address. Instead, sources indicate that he may state the conflict will continue for a couple of weeks, acknowledging the financial strain on the public but framing it as a short-term pain.