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Ukraine has made significant gains on the battlefield, halving the Russian rate of advance in the past three months and reclaiming 470sq km of occupied territory this year. The country's military has also dealt a major blow to Russia's oil export capacity, striking key terminals and refineries, including Ust-Luga and Primorsk, which account for about 60% of Russia's oil export capacity.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has secured agreements with several Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, to export Ukrainian drone know-how in return for joint drone production support. This has enabled Ukraine to increase its drone production and effectively counter Russian advances.The Ukrainian military has also targeted Russian munitions production, striking the Promsintez explosives plant in the Samara region, which produces 30,000 tonnes of military explosives annually. According to estimates, Russia has lost 45% of its missile production capacity due to Ukrainian strikes.In response to Ukrainian attacks, Russia has begun to extend its drone strikes throughout the day, imitating Iran's tactics against the US and Israel. However, Ukraine has successfully shot down over 90% of the drones launched by Russia.

A Malta‑flagged container ship named Kribi, owned by French shipping giant CMA CGM, successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz on April 2. This marks the first time a Western‑registered vessel has traversed the strategic waterway since Iran began restricting traffic following the US‑Israeli war that started on February 28.According to vessel‑tracking data from Marine Traffic, the Kribi is the first French‑owned ship to make the passage in the current conflict. The ship, sailing south along Oman’s coast, altered its declared destination to “Owner France” in LSEG shipping data, a move interpreted as a signal to Iranian authorities about its national affiliation before entering Iran’s territorial waters.The vessel was originally bound for Pointe‑Noire, Republic of the Congo, but the change in routing facilitated the safe crossing. No immediate comment was received from CMA CGM regarding the maneuver.Since March 1, only about 150 vessels—including tankers and container ships—have transited the strait, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. The majority were linked to Iran and to regional partners such as China, India and Pakistan. Beijing publicly expressed gratitude after three Chinese ships, including two Cosco‑owned container vessels, passed through the waterway earlier in the week.The strait historically carries roughly one‑fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Its effective blockage has contributed to a sharp rise in worldwide fuel prices, intensifying the ongoing energy crisis.U.S. President Donald Trump asserted that gasoline prices would drop quickly once hostilities end, but offered no concrete plan to reopen the passage, instead urging skeptical allies to take action themselves. French President Emmanuel Macron cautioned that a military operation to force open the strait would be unrealistic, emphasizing that only diplomatic efforts could restore free navigation.Macron is coordinating with European and other partners to form a coalition that would guarantee safe passage after the conflict subsides. In a commentary for *Foreign Affairs*, former Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif suggested Tehran could negotiate a deal with the United States—curbing its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and the reopening of the strait—thereby ending the war and preventing future confrontations.

At the start of 2026 Pakistan was sitting on a surplus of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). Three consecutive years of falling demand – from a peak of 8.2 million tonnes in 2021 to 6.1 million tonnes by late 2025 – were driven by cheap solar panels and reduced industrial activity. The government responded by quietly selling excess cargoes abroad and shutting down domestic wells to avoid over‑pressurising pipelines. Any gas that could not be diverted would have been pushed into household networks at a loss, adding billions to the sector’s crippling debt. Everything changed on 28 February when the United States and Israel launched the "Epic Fury" operation against Iran. The strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted missile sites, air defences and military infrastructure. Iran retaliated with hundreds of missiles and drones, choking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint for roughly 20 % of global oil and gas. As part of its retaliation, Iranian drones hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City on 2 March, the world’s largest LNG export hub. Qatar, the second‑largest LNG exporter after the United States, declared force majeure and halted all production, releasing it from contractual delivery obligations. The fallout was immediate. Qatar’s forced shutdown cut its LNG output by 17 % and disrupted the supply chain that fuels Pakistan, which sources almost all of its imported gas from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Pakistan’s LNG arrivals plummeted from 12 shipments in January to just two in March. Monthly cargo data from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) show that the country received between eight and twelve shipments a month through 2025, but only two arrived after the conflict began. Price pressure followed. On 13 February state‑owned Pakistan State Oil and Pakistan LNG Limited bought eight cargoes at an average of $10.47 per MMBtu (totaling $257.1 million). By 12 March the two cargoes that did arrive cost $12.49 per MMBtu – a 19 % increase in just one month. Long‑term contracts have left Pakistan with little flexibility. Two government‑to‑government agreements with Qatar, spanning 15 and 10 years, commit the country to nine shipments a month. Even as domestic demand fell – LNG’s share of Asian markets dropped from ~30 % in 2020 to ~18 % in 2025 – the contracts remained binding. Solarisation has been a double‑edged sword. By 2025 Pakistan installed 34 GW of solar capacity, with about 25 GW feeding the national grid, driving an 11 % decline in overall electricity demand between 2022 and 2025. Gas‑fired power plants built for imported LNG are now under‑utilised, especially during daylight hours. Analysts warn that the surplus was predictable. “Pakistan’s energy planning has been locked into long‑term contracts with little room for adjustment,” says Haneea Isaad of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). The resulting circular debt now stands at 3.3 trillion rupees (≈ $11 billion), and the government is negotiating to off‑load 177 unwanted shipments worth $5.6 billion through 2031. With Qatar’s LNG shipments effectively halted, the country faces a potential shortfall of more than 21 % of its power generation capacity. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority confirmed that LNG supplies are under force majeure, while coal imports from South Africa and Indonesia continue. To mitigate the gap, Pakistan is reviving domestic gas production that had been throttled during the surplus period. Roughly 350–400 million cubic feet per day of domestic gas were previously held back for LNG imports, now being released to the grid. Nevertheless, analysts caution that even with restored domestic gas, imported coal and hydropower, “the energy shortage may persist, especially during the peak summer months.” Summer pressure is already building. The State of Industry Report 2025 recorded peak electricity demand of over 33,000 MW last summer, while winter demand sits around 15,000 MW, helped by solar generation of 9,000–10,000 MW daily. Furnace oil, the primary backup fuel, now costs 35 rupees per unit (≈ $0.12), more than double since the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Consumers with grid electricity face higher bills and possible outages; industrial users reliant on gas risk production cuts; those equipped with rooftop solar and battery storage are best insulated. “Returning to the spot market is unlikely given Pakistan’s dire financial position, and competing with wealthier nations would price the country out,” Isaad warns. “The realistic outcome may be planned load‑shedding of two to three hours daily.”

The conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel has escalated on day 35, with the US and Israel widening their attacks on Iranian infrastructure. The strikes have targeted a century-old medical research centre in Tehran, steel plants, and a bridge near the capital, which Iran claims was civilian infrastructure.The human toll continues to rise, with at least 2,076 people killed and 26,500 wounded in Iran since the start of the US-Israeli attacks. Iran's Foreign Ministry reports that more than 600 schools and education centres have been hit since February 28.Iran's military has vowed to continue the war until its enemies face 'humiliation' and 'surrender', warning the US against a ground invasion. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has stated that it is ready for any type of attack, including a ground attack.In a significant development, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has abruptly fired the US Army's top general and two other senior officers, sparking speculation of a wartime leadership shake-up.The conflict has also drawn in other countries, with Pakistan pushing for US-Iran talks and the United Kingdom holding talks with about 40 countries on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20 percent of the world's oil and LNG. The US has lost 13 service members in combat and two to noncombat causes, with more than 200 injured.In Israel, sirens have become 'part of life', with residents repeatedly heading to shelters, especially in the Tel Aviv area. The conflict has also intensified along the northern front, with Hezbollah carrying out 60 military operations against Israel in 24 hours.

Cuba’s government declared a humanitarian amnesty for 2,010 prisoners ahead of Easter’s Holy Week, a decision it says follows a careful review of each inmate’s conduct, health, and time served. The announcement, made by state media on Thursday, represents the second such amnesty this year and the fifth large‑scale pardon since 2011, bringing the total to more than 11,000 released individuals. While Havana officially denies acting under U.S. pressure, the timing aligns with what analysts describe as the most aggressive Washington campaign against the island in decades. The move comes a day after Cuba’s top diplomat in Washington invited the United States to assist in overhauling the island’s “crippled” economy, part of ongoing talks that have yet to produce concrete outcomes. U.S. officials, including President Trump’s administration, have repeatedly called for a change of government in the communist‑run state, with the president even musing about “taking” the island. Yet recent diplomatic exchanges suggest a nuanced shift: both sides have held talks, and scholars note that the amnesty could be a tangible sign of progress, however modest. University of Miami Cuban‑studies chair Michael Bustamante told AFP, “It seems not far‑fetched to think that this is a sign that some of the conversation between both governments is advancing… To where? Unclear.” He added that the political significance will depend on the profile of those released. The Cuban presidency did not disclose the names or crimes of the pardoned individuals, but indicated the group includes young people, women, and inmates over 60 who are slated for early release within the next six to twelve months. Foreign nationals and Cuban expatriates are also among those granted clemency. Importantly, the amnesty excludes anyone convicted of murder, sexual assault, drug‑related offenses, theft, illegal livestock slaughter, or crimes against state authority. Earlier in March, the government freed 51 prisoners as a “good‑will” gesture toward the Vatican, which often mediates between Washington and Havana. The current pardon is framed as part of the “humanitarian legacy of the Revolution” and is presented as customary practice during Holy Week. The release coincides with Russia’s announcement of a second oil tanker bound for Cuba, following a recent easing of the U.S. oil blockade that allowed the first shipment. Bustamante speculated that the timing may not be coincidental, suggesting a possible link between U.S. policy shifts and Cuba’s diplomatic overtures. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban‑American critic of Havana, reiterated on Fox News that Cuba’s economic woes cannot be solved without political reform, warning that the island faces “a lot of trouble.”

Kuwait has been hit by Iranian missile and drone strikes, targeting a crucial power and desalination plant, as well as the Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery. The attacks, which occurred on Friday, have raised concerns about the stability of the region and the potential for further escalation. The power and desalination plant was struck before midday local time, with the extent of the damage still unknown. The plant is critical for Kuwait's water supply, as the country is highly dependent on desalinated water. An Indian national was killed in a similar attack on March 30, and Iran denied claims it launched the attacks, blaming Israel instead. The Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery, one of the largest in the Middle East, was targeted in early morning drone strikes, resulting in fires in several operational units. No employees were injured, but emergency and firefighting teams were dispatched to the scene, and environmental authorities monitored the area for air quality. The attacks are part of a broader escalation of tensions in the Gulf region, with Iran launching retaliatory strikes against US and Israeli targets. The United Arab Emirates' defence ministry reported that it had intercepted 19 ballistic missiles and 26 drones on Thursday alone, while Saudi Arabia destroyed a drone in its airspace overnight. Iran's army spokesperson warned of impending attacks on regional power plants, while US President Donald Trump warned of intensifying strikes on Iran's infrastructure. The situation remains volatile, with concerns about the potential for further attacks and the impact on regional stability.

The ongoing conflict between Iran and the US-Israeli alliance has sent shockwaves through global oil markets, with Brent crude prices surging 5% to $106.16 per barrel on Thursday morning. Despite being heavily reliant on Iranian oil, China appears to have largely insulated itself from the crisis.China's strategy involves utilizing 'teapot refineries,' small, privately owned oil refineries primarily based in Shandong province. These facilities have been importing discounted Iranian and Russian oil, accounting for one-quarter of China's processing capacity. This approach allows China to circumvent US sanctions and maintain a stable oil supply.China's teapot refineries have been stockpiling oil reserves, providing a buffer against potential supply disruptions. According to Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, China's seaborne crude imports in March stood at 10.19 million barrels per day (mbd), down from 11.51mbd in February but still in line with the 2025 average of 10.41mbd.The US has previously imposed sanctions on some of these teapot refineries for importing Iranian oil. However, China's tolerance of this independent system has proved strategically useful, allowing the country to maintain a flexible buffer for bargain barrels during crises.Experts note that while China's measures will not completely immunize the country from rising fuel prices, they do provide Beijing with more flexibility to survive a crisis compared with other nations. China's approach involves aggressive stockpiling, tolerating shadow networks, and keeping flexible buffers, demonstrating its preparedness for energy shocks.

President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric on Thursday, stating that the United States has yet to begin a full‑scale campaign against Iran’s remaining infrastructure and hinting that bridges and electric power plants could be next targets. The comment followed the release of video showing a U.S. strike on the newly completed B1 bridge that connects Tehran to Karaj, an attack that Iran reports killed eight people and injured 95. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the strike on civilian infrastructure, describing it as evidence of the “defeat and moral collapse” of the aggressor. In a statement posted on X, he warned that such attacks would not force Iran to surrender. The conflict, now entering its fifth week, has begun to ripple through regional and global markets. Instability around the Strait of Hormuz—a vital conduit for oil and gas—has prompted nations to scramble for alternative shipping routes. Satellite images this week captured smoke over Iran’s Qeshm Island, underscoring the heightened risk to infrastructure near the strategic waterway. Amid stalled negotiations with Iran’s new leadership, Trump’s intensified language comes as the United Nations Security Council prepares to vote on a resolution that could authorize member states to use “defensive means” to keep the strait open. Araghchi warned that any provocative action in the Council would only worsen the situation. Iranian media have begun listing potential retaliation targets, naming major bridges in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan as possible future strike points. The semi‑official Fars News Agency highlighted these crossings as vulnerable following the Karaj bridge attack. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for recent strikes on U.S.-linked industrial sites in the Gulf, including steel facilities in Abu Dhabi and aluminium plants in Bahrain. The IRGC warned that if attacks on Iranian industries continue, “the next response will be much more painful” and will focus on the occupier’s core infrastructure. Health infrastructure has also suffered. Iran’s Health Ministry reported that U.S. and Israeli raids severely damaged the Pasteur Institute of Iran, a key research center for diseases such as cholera and COVID‑19. Ministry spokesperson Hossein Kermanpour called the strike “a direct assault on international health security.” WHO Director‑General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus echoed the condemnation, noting that the institute is now unable to deliver health services. The WHO has documented more than 20 attacks on Iranian healthcare facilities since the start of March. In a separate claim, Iranian officials said air defenses downed a second U.S. F‑35 fighter jet over central Iran, suggesting the pilot’s survival was unlikely. The United States has not responded to the allegation. Israel’s military reported a fresh barrage of Iranian missiles, which triggered air‑defence alerts and caused damage to homes, vehicles, and a train station in Tel Aviv. The widening hostilities, combined with threats to critical energy and health infrastructure, highlight the growing regional volatility and its potential to disrupt global markets.

The ongoing war in Iran has ignited a fresh oil supply shock, sending crude prices soaring and rippling through economies worldwide. Analysts note that the conflict’s persistence is tightening global oil flows, prompting immediate spikes in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel costs. Energy traders report that the heightened uncertainty has amplified market volatility, with benchmark crude benchmarks climbing to levels not seen in months. The price surge is pressuring both consumers and businesses, as higher fuel costs translate into increased transportation expenses and broader inflationary pressures. Governments and central banks are now monitoring the situation closely, aware that sustained higher oil prices could erode economic growth and strain household budgets, especially in regions heavily dependent on imported energy. While the full economic impact remains to be quantified, the consensus among experts is clear: the prolonged Iran war is reshaping the global energy landscape, underscoring the fragility of supply chains and the need for diversified energy strategies.