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The deadly conflict in Iran has precipitated what the International Energy Agency describes as the worst oil crisis in history, creating a complex situation for global clean energy efforts. While climate advocates are calling for accelerated transition away from fossil fuels, the war simultaneously presents both opportunities and significant challenges for renewable energy development.US-Israeli strikes on Iran have critically disrupted supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime channel through which 20% of global oil flows. The conflict has also seen direct attacks on fossil fuel infrastructure by all parties involved, creating additional market shocks and uncertainty.Interestingly, reduced reliance on oil and gas is proving beneficial for some regions navigating the ongoing fuel crisis. As Jan Rosenow, a professor of energy at Oxford University, explains: Electricity generated from wind and solar is largely insulated from fossil fuel price volatility – once built, the fuel is free.Countries with substantial renewable energy investments are demonstrating greater resilience. Spain and Portugal have witnessed electricity prices decline in recent weeks, while Pakistan has experienced a surge in rooftop solar installations over the past five years, helping the nation weather oil and gas market disruptions.The electric vehicle revolution is also providing some economies with protection against gasoline price increases. In China, more than 50% of all new cars sold are electric, while in Nepal, that figure reaches an impressive 70%.However, the war is creating near-term challenges that could impede clean energy growth. The conflict has disrupted transport routes for metals essential in solar panel construction, particularly aluminum. The Middle East accounts for approximately 9% of global aluminum production, and regional producers have begun scaling back operations amid the hostilities.Furthermore, the inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict pose significant hurdles for renewable energy projects, which require substantial upfront investment for construction, equipment, and installation.Paradoxically, the war and resulting energy shocks have provided a short-term boon for fossil fuels, including coal. Many Asian countries heavily reliant on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) are burning more coal to meet energy demand as LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz become constrained.The conflict has also incentivized increased oil and gas drilling and exploration, as countries scramble to replace disrupted LNG supplies and higher prices make previously unviable projects economically viable. US company Venture Global recently announced a new five-year contract to supply LNG, while Canadian energy company TC Energy indicated that Iran war disruptions are increasing the likelihood of expanding a massive LNG export facility.The Trump administration has further incentivized oil expansion, recently announcing plans to pay a French company $1 billion to abandon offshore wind farm projects in favor of fossil fuel initiatives.Experts propose various policy responses to encourage the green transition during this crisis. Rosenow advocates for tax reform to reduce the disproportionate burden on electricity compared to gas. Professor Gregor Semieniuk suggests imposing windfall taxes on oil and gas companies during the war, while Lauren Pagel of Earthworks calls for ending fossil fuel subsidies and making polluters pay for their environmental impact.Despite the current challenges, Kingsmill Bond, a strategist for the energy thinktank Ember, maintains that this crisis could ultimately accelerate the clean energy transition: This is the first oil shock in history where oil faces a superior alternative. Solar, wind and EV are cheaper, local, faster to deploy, and huge.

The UK government has announced a significant intervention in the country's industrial sector, investing £100m to reopen a carbon dioxide plant on Teesside. The Ensus plant, which was mothballed in September, will restart operations for an initial three-month period, with hopes that it could then remain open indefinitely.The decision to reopen the plant comes amid concerns that the war in Iran could trigger shortages of CO2, a gas that has various uses ranging from carbonating drinks and keeping food fresh to medical procedures and the sedating of animals for slaughter. The plant's reopening is expected to bolster production of CO2 and help ensure the resilience of supply chains.The Business Secretary, Peter Kyle, approved the reopening of the plant, stating that the government would 'always do what's needed to ensure resilience and protect British businesses from the worst impacts of global uncertainty.' The move is part of wider government efforts to ensure the UK maintains access to critical industrial resources during global supply shocks.The UK's food and drink industry faced a CO2 crisis in 2021, after the easing of pandemic restrictions sent the price of wholesale gas soaring, pushing up the manufacturing costs of fertiliser production, which also produces the gas as a byproduct. The crisis resulted in the government providing a temporary bailout to the American company CF Fertilisers to help restart CO2 production at its Teesside factory.The Ensus plant has had operations on Teesside since 2010, using distillation and fermentation to convert wheat into bioethanol. CO2 is a byproduct of this process, as well as high-protein animal feed. The company, which is headquartered in Middlesbrough, employs about 100 people.

Global markets experienced a significant shift as stock markets in Asia and Europe rose following reports that US President Donald Trump had sent a 15-point framework for peace to Iran. This development sparked hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East, influencing market sentiment. The price of oil, which had fallen by 4% in early trading to below $100 (£75) per barrel of Brent crude, later recovered to approximately $100. This fluctuation was driven by the prospect of an end to the conflict easing the squeeze on oil supply. The straits of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane through which 20% of global oil supplies transit, had been effectively closed by Iran, causing a significant disruption to oil and gas shipments. Iran's announcement that it would permit “non-hostile” ships to pass safely through the strait of Hormuz helped to reopen this crucial waterway. This move, combined with the potential peace plan, contributed to the positive market sentiment. Stock markets in Asia saw notable gains, with Japan’s Nikkei rising by 2.9%, India’s S&P; BSE Sensex almost 2% higher, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up by just under 1%. European markets also saw increases, with the FTSE 100 in London up by almost 1%, Germany’s Dax trading 1.6% higher, and France’s Cac 40 climbing by 1.4%. However, Iran’s foreign affairs ministry informed the UN Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile” vessels could pass through the strait, which also poses a risk to global food security due to the disruption of fertiliser supplies. The World Trade Organization warned that this could lead to food price shocks. The conflict's impact on gold prices was also noted, as the metal traditionally seen as a safe haven asset during troubled times experienced a 13% decline to about $4,460 per ounce. Additionally, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warned that a prolonged conflict could lead to oil prices rising to $150 a barrel, potentially triggering a global recession.

The global food system is facing an unprecedented threat of collapse, much like the financial system did in 2008. The concentration of power in the hands of a few large corporations has led to a loss of diversity, redundancy, and modularity, making the system highly vulnerable to shocks.Recent data suggests that every part of this system is now highly concentrated in the hands of a few corporations, which have been consolidating both vertically and horizontally. One recent study found that the US food system has “consolidated nearly twice as much as the overall economic system”. Some of these corporations, diversifying into financial products, now look more like banks than commodity traders, but without the same level of regulation.These vulnerabilities are exacerbated by the use of just-in-time supply chains and the funnelling of much of the world’s trade through a number of chokepoints. Some people have long warned that the strait of Hormuz, alongside the Suez canal, Turkish straits, Panama canal and straits of Malacca, are critical chokepoints, whose obstruction would threaten the flow of food, fertiliser, fuel and other crucial agricultural commodities.When a system has lost its resilience, it’s hard to predict just how and when it could go down. The collapse of one corporation? The simultaneous closure of two or more chokepoints? A major IT outage? A severe climate event coinciding with a geopolitical crisis? The next step could be contagious bankruptcy and cascading failure across sectors.We know what needs to happen: break up the big corporations; bring the system under proper regulatory control; diversify our diets and their means of production; reduce our dependence on a handful of major exporting countries; build strategic food reserves, accessible to people everywhere. But there’s a problem, and it’s not just Trump. Almost all governments are beholden to corporate and financial power.The best we can hope for is that braver politicians in our own countries seek to insulate us from the worst impacts. A crucial step is to encourage a shift to a plant-based diet. People struggle to see the relevance, but it’s simple. A plant-based diet requires far fewer resources, including just a quarter of the land a standard western diet requires and much less fertiliser and other inputs.

The world is currently experiencing a severe energy crisis, surpassing the combined impact of the 1970s oil shocks and the Ukraine war, according to Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Speaking at a media event in Australia, Birol warned that the energy crunch prompted by the US-Israel war on Iran has exceeded the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks and gas shortages stemming from Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.Birol stated that the crisis is equivalent to two oil crises and one gas crash combined. He noted that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy facilities have reduced global oil supplies by about 11 million barrels per day (bpd), more than double the combined shortfalls of the 1970s crises. Additionally, liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies have been reduced by about 140 billion cubic meters, compared to a shortfall of 75bcm in the aftermath of Ukraine's invasion by Russia.At least 40 energy facilities across nine countries have been severely damaged in the conflict, according to the IEA chief. Birol emphasized that the global economy is facing a major threat and expressed hope that the issue will be resolved soon.Birol also expressed concern that the scale of the crisis had not been fully understood, which prompted him to speak publicly about the situation. The IEA has proposed measures to reduce energy consumption, including facilitating remote working and carpooling, and lowering speed limits on motorways.The IEA chief is in consultation with different countries about releasing more strategic oil reserves if needed. However, he emphasized that the single most important solution to the crisis is to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, which usually carries about one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies.

The global energy crisis caused by the war in Iran and the fallout from the Ukraine conflict is equivalent to the combined force of the twin oil shocks of the 1970s, according to the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA).Fatih Birol, the IEA's executive director, warned that the growing fallout could be seriously compounded by interruptions to the 'vital arteries of the global economy', including petrochemicals, fertilisers, sulphur, and helium.The crisis, which started with bombings against the regime in Tehran on 28 February, already represents the loss of 11m barrels of oil per day and about 140 bcm of gas. This is comparable to the losses seen in the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, which saw a loss of about 5m barrels of oil per day each, and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which removed about 75bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas from international markets.Birol said that at least 40 energy assets in the Gulf region had been severely or very severely damaged, so even an end to the conflict would not immediately restore energy supply. He also noted that the Asia Pacific region had been badly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil supply is transported.The IEA has taken emergency measures, including the release of 400m barrels of oil from strategic reserves, the largest emergency measure in its history. Birol said he is consulting world leaders about another possible release of emergency oil supply, noting that the initial move was only 20% of overall stocks.

In rural Northern Ireland, the unmistakable sight of heating oil tankers making deliveries has become a double-edged sword. While these deliveries provide essential warmth, they also inadvertently mark homes as targets for criminals who monitor these visible supply routes.The decades-long issue of heating oil theft has intensified dramatically following the conflict in the Middle East, which has driven up the price of what locals now call 'liquid gold' to unprecedented levels. 62% of households across Northern Ireland depend on oil for heating, with rural reliance reaching 80%, making the region particularly vulnerable to both price shocks and related criminal activity.Since the US and Israel began attacking Iran on February 28, the cost of heating oil has almost doubled to approximately £1,000 for 900 litres. This price surge has transformed what was once a nuisance crime into a serious financial threat for many families.'Rural homes and farms are increasingly being targeted by opportunistic thieves,' said Gary McCartney, regional director of Countryside Alliance Ireland. 'A tank can be drained in minutes.'The consequences extend beyond financial loss. Gareth Kelly and Aimee Leigh Brolly, a couple in Limavady, County Derry, recently woke to choking fumes from an oil line severed by thieves, forcing them to vacate their home with their newborn son due to safety concerns.Police have issued security recommendations, including high-quality padlocks, motion-sensor lighting, and oil-level detection alarms. 'Long term, use fencing or prickly hedging to keep your tank out of sight from the road,' authorities suggest.Experts describe the phenomenon as opportunistic rather than organized crime. 'To call it organised crime is a stretch. This is low level,' said Jonny Byrne, a criminology lecturer at Ulster University. A former police officer agreed, noting that while organized crime groups might eventually become involved, 'it is more opportunistic than organised' at present.The Rural Community Network believes theft is significantly underreported, especially in isolated areas. 'Theft is more noticeable when prices are high,' said CEO Kate Clifford. 'Oil is like liquid gold. It's highly valuable and easy to steal.'This pattern mirrors similar spikes during Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when the Rural Community Network itself lost £1,700 worth of fuel to thieves who went undetected for an extended period.

The rising tensions in Iran have sparked fears of a potential global economic recession. The country's involvement in conflicts has historically led to oil price shocks and market volatility, which can have far-reaching effects on the world economy.Experts warn that an escalation of the conflict could lead to supply chain disruptions, inflation, and economic instability. This, in turn, could increase the likelihood of a recession, which would have significant implications for global trade and economic growth.

The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has significant implications for the UK economy, with the potential to plunge the country into a severe energy crisis. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for oil, is now rendered unsafe due to Iranian drones and mines, threatening to disrupt global fuel supplies. Historically, the UK has faced similar challenges, such as during the Suez crisis 70 years ago, when petrol rationing was introduced. Former BP executive Nick Butler warns that if the crisis persists, the UK could be just weeks away from needing to ration fuel, with critical users like emergency services being prioritized. The economic consequences of such a crisis are far-reaching. A sustained energy crisis could push up average British household energy bills by £500, according to the Resolution Foundation thinktank. This would further exacerbate the cost of living crisis, which has already seen inflationary shocks and a backlash against incumbents. The UK government faces difficult decisions. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has already taken steps to help 1.7 million households reliant on oil for heating and hot water, whose bills have doubled. However, her warning that financial help will be targeted at lower earners suggests that harder decisions lie ahead. In the long term, the UK must consider investing in net zero initiatives to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Modelling by the government's expert Climate Change Committee suggests that if Britain sticks to its net zero path, even a substantial oil shock would raise energy bills by only 4% by 2040. However, implementing such policies in the midst of a crisis is a challenging task.