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The International Energy Agency (IEA) has sharply cut its forecasts for global oil supply and demand growth, citing disruptions caused by the US-Israel war on Iran that are impacting oil flows and weighing on the global economy.According to the IEA's report, global oil demand is expected to fall by 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, a significant drop from the projected year-on-year rise of 640,000 bpd in its previous monthly report.The forecast comes after the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and IEA urged countries to avoid hoarding energy supplies and imposing export controls that could exacerbate the shock. IEA chief Fatih Birol appealed to all countries to let energy stocks flow to the markets, warning that demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist.The IEA report highlighted that the deepest cuts in oil consumption have come from the Middle East and Asia Pacific, particularly for naphtha, LPG, and jet fuel. A projected 1.5 million bpd drop in demand in the second quarter of this year would mark the deepest contraction since the COVID-19 pandemic.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also lowered its prediction for world oil demand in the second quarter, but kept its full-year outlook unchanged. The IEA noted that attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz have led to the largest oil supply disruption in history, with 10.1 million bpd lost in March.Iran's de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy shipments, sent gas and petrol prices skyrocketing around the world. The US blockade on Iranian ports has further clouded the outlook for global energy security and the supply of goods that rely on petroleum.The IEA warned that oil demand could plunge even further if the strait remains closed, and emphasized that resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing pressure on energy supplies, prices, and the global economy.Meanwhile, Russia has benefited from the disruptions, with its revenues from crude oil and refined products rising in March due to the surge in prices. Moscow's crude oil exports rose by 270,000 bpd last month to 4.6 million bpd, driven by higher seaborne shipments.

President Donald Trump asserted that a diplomatic path remains open for Tehran, even as the United States enforces a naval blockade of Iranian ports and Israel deepens its ground offensive in southern Lebanon. Iran’s leadership denounced the blockade as "piracy" and thousands gathered in Tehran to demonstrate against the restriction on maritime traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The Associated Press reported that diplomatic channels are still active; Pakistan has volunteered to host a second round of negotiations in Islamabad later this week. US blockade and protests: The enforcement of the maritime restrictions has provoked Iranian accusations of illegal action and sparked street protests in the capital. Tehran’s legal stance: Iran’s armed forces labeled the blockade unlawful, warning that targeting its ports could jeopardize broader Gulf shipping. IRGC warning: A Revolutionary Guard spokesperson hinted that Iran retains "unused capabilities" and may adopt new tactics if the confrontation escalates. Parliamentary support for the Pope: Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Pope Leo XIV’s condemnation of the war, describing it as courageous. Russian nuclear staff pull‑out: Moscow has withdrawn most of its personnel from Iran’s sole nuclear power plant, a project built with Russian assistance. Qatar’s mediation call: Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani urged both Washington and Tehran to engage constructively in mediation. Pakistan’s ceasefire assessment: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the US‑Iran truce is holding, even as weekend talks failed to produce a breakthrough. Shipping disruption: A UN spokesperson warned that there is no military solution and noted that roughly 20,000 vessels are stranded, straining global supply chains, especially for fertiliser. UK push for Lebanese inclusion: London advocated adding Lebanon to the US‑Iran ceasefire framework, which currently omits Hezbollah‑related fighting. US‑Lebanon diplomatic talks: Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors are slated to meet in Washington to discuss halting hostilities. Hezbollah’s rejection: Leader Naim Qassem urged Lebanon to cancel the planned Washington meeting, reaffirming the group’s opposition to any direct dialogue with Israel. Russia’s uranium offer: The Kremlin reiterated its willingness to accept Iran’s enriched uranium as part of a broader US‑Iran settlement, echoing President Vladimir Putin’s statements. Trump on Iranian outreach: The former president claimed Iranian officials have expressed a strong desire to negotiate, though he did not identify the interlocutors. Trump’s stance on the Pope: He dismissed criticism of Pope Leo XIV as unwarranted, labeling the pontiff "weak" on key issues, including Iran. Threat to Iranian vessels: Trump warned that U.S. forces will neutralise any Iranian fast‑attack ships that approach the blockade zone. Domestic political pressure: Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, are pushing for a new vote to limit the president’s war‑making powers, citing rising U.S. fuel prices. Protester arrests in New York: Approximately 90 demonstrators, including whistleblower Chelsea Manning and actor Hari Nef, were detained during a Manhattan traffic‑stop protest against the war and U.S. arms sales to Israel. Israel’s buffer‑zone push: Israeli forces continue ground and air operations in southern Lebanon, razing structures in border towns such as Naqoura to create a security buffer. Hezbollah retaliation: The group has intensified rocket and drone attacks on Israeli positions in locations like Bint Jbeil and Biyyada. Accusations of a "Greater Israel": Hezbollah chief Hassan Qassem accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of pursuing an expansionist agenda backed by the United States. Diplomatic tension with Italy: Israel summoned the Italian ambassador after Italy’s foreign minister condemned Israeli attacks on Beirut as "unacceptable". Casualties in Lebanon: Israeli operations have raised the death toll in southern Lebanon since March 2 to at least 2,089, including a recent drone strike that killed two civilians near Nabatieh. Public opinion in Lebanon: Lebanese citizens are divided, with some weary of the conflict and hopeful for diplomacy, while others distrust Israel’s intentions. Canadian casualty: Canada’s foreign minister confirmed that a Canadian national died in southern Lebanon, though details remain scarce. Energy implications: Reuters reported that a Chinese‑owned tanker, sanctioned by the United States, successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, underscoring the challenges of enforcement. Oil market outlook: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned that oil prices could keep climbing until "meaningful ship traffic" resumes through the strait.

The United States military has begun a mine clearance operation in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil and gas supplies, in response to Iran's alleged laying of sea mines. The operation, led by guided missile destroyers USS Frank E Peterson and USS Michael Murphy, aims to establish a 'safe pathway' for the free flow of global commerce.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) recently released a map of the Strait of Hormuz showing a safe route for ships to follow through the strait, directing vessels farther north towards the Iranian coast and away from the traditional route closer to the coast of Oman. The IRGC stated that all vessels must use the new map for navigation due to 'the likelihood of the presence of various types of anti-ship mines in the main traffic zone.'The stakes are high, with one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies having been shipped through the Strait of Hormuz before the war. Even a single mine can compel operators to assume a wider threat, effectively invalidating insurance and shutting down their use of the waterway.Iran's stockpile is estimated to number 2,000 to 6,000 mines, a significant portion of which are produced domestically. These mines generally fall into three categories: contact mines, bottom (influence) mines, and 'smart' and rocket mines.The US Navy is facing a 'mine gap,' with experts calling for institutional neglect that led to the retirement of dedicated mine countermeasures (MCM) assets. The current US strategy relies on small combat ships built for coastal operations and fitted with MCM mission modules, but only one of these vessels, the USS Canberra, is currently available in the region.

The U.S. military announced that, starting at 14:00 GMT on Monday, it will enforce a blockade of every Iranian port, a step taken after President Donald Trump ordered a naval closure of the Strait of Hormuz—the waterway through which roughly one‑fifth of global crude oil normally flows. The blockade comes on the heels of stalled peace negotiations in Islamabad, where talks between Washington and Tehran collapsed without an agreement despite a prior cease‑fire pledge. Trump’s escalation has already driven crude prices above $100 per barrel and unsettled Asian equity markets, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.84%, the Topix slipping 0.42% and South Korea’s Kospi falling 1.83%. Iran’s response is equally forceful. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any vessel entering the strait would be deemed a breach of the cease‑fire and dealt with “harshly and decisively,” insisting it has “full control” and threatening a “deadly vortex” for any misstep. Navy chief Shahram Irani dismissed Trump’s threat as “ridiculous and funny,” while state television said Iranian forces are closely monitoring U.S. movements. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi lamented “maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade” that undermined a near‑final Islamabad memorandum, quoting, “Good will begets good will. Enmity begets enmity.” Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf pledged resistance and mocked U.S. gasoline prices, posting a map of Washington‑area pump prices and predicting nostalgia for $4‑$5 gas. U.S. Central Command clarified that the blockade will stop all vessels bound for or from Iran, while traffic to non‑Iranian ports will continue unhindered. Trump also warned that any ship that has paid an “illegal toll” to Iran will be intercepted on the high seas, and he publicly criticized Pope Leo XIV for urging an end to the conflict. In Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes have killed at least five people, bringing the country’s overall death toll to 2,055. Hezbollah retaliated with a rocket barrage aimed at northern Israeli towns, citing violations of a cease‑fire. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) reported that an Israeli tank rammed peace‑keeping vehicles twice in the south. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited troops on the Lebanese border, claiming that Hezbollah’s invasion threat has been neutralized, though he acknowledged that hostilities continue within the security zone. On the energy front, shipping through the Hormuz corridor has “immediately halted,” according to Lloyd’s List, with several vessels turning back after the blockade announcement, further tightening global oil supplies.

The UK's housing crisis has reached a critical point, with homelessness rates among over-55s on the rise. The current housing system is failing to provide affordable options, leading to a growing number of people relying on friends and family for a roof. The issue is not just about the number of homes being built, but also about the type of housing being constructed. Currently, four-bedroom detached houses on car-dependent estates are being prioritized, which do little to address the needs of those facing rising rents and insecure tenancies. To address this crisis, there is a pressing need for genuinely affordable social housing within existing towns and cities. This means building accessible, energy-efficient homes close to shops, healthcare, green spaces, and public transport. Local authorities and housing organizations have long argued for urban densification, but planning policy still favors sprawl. The financial implications of inaction are stark. By 2029-30, local councils across England are projected to spend almost £4bn annually on temporary accommodation for those experiencing homelessness. Meanwhile, the building of new social housing, a key solution to the issue, is at historic lows. The government's intention to invest in affordable housing is welcome, but it will only deliver 300,000 new homes over a 10-year period, while there are currently 1.34m households on local authority waiting lists. To address this crisis, local councils, central government, and civil society must come together to devise an exit strategy that transforms the skyrocketing temporary accommodation bill into long-term investment in permanent social housing stock.

Day 44 of the US‑Iran war ended without a peace deal as a marathon 21‑hour session in Islamabad collapsed, jeopardising the fragile cease‑fire that has held since the conflict began over six weeks ago.Vice President JD Vance, leading the US delegation, told reporters that the lack of an agreement was "bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America," before departing Pakistan.Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar pledged that Islamabad would continue to facilitate dialogue between the two longtime adversaries.In Iran, officials downplayed expectations, noting that no one anticipated a settlement in a single session. State‑run IRIB quoted ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei saying the talks were never expected to conclude quickly. Meanwhile, Tehran residents expressed a mix of scepticism and hope after weeks of air attacks that have left a nation of 93 million people reeling; more than 2,000 Iranians have been killed in the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict.In the United States, Vance reiterated that the delegation left with a "final and best offer" for Iran, emphasizing that Washington had communicated its position repeatedly during the talks. He cited multiple conversations with President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Central Command head Brad Cooper. Trump, however, maintained that the US had already "won" on the battlefield by eliminating Iranian leaders and key infrastructure, stating that a deal would not alter the outcome.The US military reported that two destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz ahead of planned mine‑clearing operations – a first since hostilities began – though Iran’s state media claimed the joint command denied the movement.Academic David Des Roches of the Thayer Marshall Institute told Al Jazeera that while Washington clarified its stance, it did not shift its core demand: preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.In Lebanon, Israel continued strikes, claiming to have hit a "loaded and ready‑to‑launch rocket launcher" in Jouaiya, southern Lebanon. Protests have erupted in Beirut against any direct Israel‑Lebanon negotiations. The Lebanese Ministry of Public Health reported at least 2,020 deaths and 6,436 injuries from Israeli attacks since March 2.In Israel, Channel 12 reported that a drone launched from Lebanon triggered sirens in the Upper Galilee before being intercepted.The stalemate has kept global oil and gas prices soaring, underscoring the broader economic ripple effects of a war that shows no sign of abating.

Israeli airstrikes across southern Lebanon have killed at least 18 people, including eight civilians in a village near Sidon and ten victims – among them three emergency workers – in the Nabatieh district, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. The ministry’s latest figures show the conflict, which erupted on March 2 after Hezbollah fired rockets in support of Iran, has now claimed 2,020 lives and wounded 6,436 since Lebanon was drawn into the U.S.–Israel war on Iran. In a separate incident, two Israeli paratroopers were wounded by shrapnel during clashes with Hezbollah forces in the south, as reported by Israel’s Channel 13. Amid the escalating violence, President Joseph Aoun announced that Lebanese, Israeli and U.S. officials will convene in Washington next week to discuss a ceasefire and the framework for future negotiations under U.S. auspices. Hezbollah, however, has reiterated its refusal to engage in direct talks with Israel, labeling the proposed negotiations a “blatant violation of the national pact, the constitution and Lebanese law,” according to lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah. Pro‑Hezbollah demonstrators gathered near the government headquarters in central Beirut, waving the group’s yellow flag and the Iranian standard, to protest the planned talks. Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal Movement, later urged supporters to refrain from further demonstrations, citing the need for stability and civil peace. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that any peace settlement must be lasting and called for the disarmament of Hezbollah, underscoring the deep strategic divide. While the United States and Iran announced a tentative ceasefire this week, the agreement’s applicability to Israel’s campaign in Lebanon remains uncertain. Iranian officials claim they secured a U.S. assurance that Israel will reduce attacks on Lebanon, but no confirmation has been received from Israeli authorities regarding a ceasefire or a reduction in hostilities. These diplomatic efforts coincide with historic in‑person ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan, highlighting the broader regional stakes of the Lebanon‑Israel conflict.

The quiet evening in the Israeli kibbutz of Cabri, just five miles from the Lebanon border, was shattered by the sound of air raid sirens. The residents, including the Moria family, rushed to a reinforced safe room as Iron Dome interceptors were launched to counter incoming rockets from Hezbollah.The ceasefire-defying attack by Israel that killed over 300 people in Lebanon has reignited the conflict. Despite hopes that the Iran ceasefire might bring an end to Hezbollah's rocket fire, the situation remains fragile. 1,164 rockets have been fired into Israel since March 2, at a rate of about 30 a day, according to the Alma Center thinktank.Residents of Cabri describe a life of constant risk management, with every decision to leave home, work in the fields, or walk a dog influenced by the threat of attack. The conflict has resulted in over 1,700 recorded deaths in Lebanon since early March, with a smaller but significant number of civilian casualties in Israel.Moshe Davidovich, chief of the local Mate Asher Regional Council, supports Israel's continued war in Lebanon, citing the need to counter Hezbollah's threats. In contrast, Amir Yarchi, a kibbutz resident, argues that a military solution is unrealistic and could lead to an endless war.The situation highlights the complexity of achieving peace in the region, with international engagement and support for the Lebanese government seen as potential pathways to stability. However, with 79% of Israelis supporting continued strikes into Lebanon, finding a lasting solution remains a significant challenge.

Historic peace talks between Iran and the US commenced in Islamabad, Pakistan, marking the first face-to-face meeting between senior negotiators from both countries since 1979. The discussions, facilitated by Pakistani mediators, took place in a positive atmosphere despite continued fighting in Lebanon.The US delegation, led by Vice-President JD Vance, and Iran's negotiators, headed by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi, engaged in two rounds of talks. The discussions covered key topics such as security, finance, and the Strait of Hormuz.Pakistani sources confirmed that Pakistan's army chief, Asim Munir, was present in the room, having played a crucial role in brokering a ceasefire earlier in the week. Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, hosted dinner for the delegations at his residence.The Iranian negotiators initially demanded a ceasefire in Lebanon, reparations, and a commitment to unblock frozen assets as part of a peace deal. However, the US warned against attempts to manipulate the negotiations, with Vance stating that the US would not be receptive to such tactics.The talks have sparked optimism, with a senior Pakistani official expressing hope for a breakthrough. The discussions have also drawn attention from other countries, with reports suggesting that China may offer guarantees to secure a deal.Meanwhile, Israel's military actions in Lebanon have escalated tensions, with Hezbollah firing rockets at Israeli cities. The Lebanese army has deployed troops to maintain stability amid internal tensions.