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According to a new United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) briefing, the global food commodity price index climbed 2.4% in March, marking the second straight monthly increase and the first rise in five months for the broader basket of grains, meat, dairy, vegetable oils and sugar.The surge is largely attributed to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed up energy prices and freight rates worldwide. The report highlighted that vegetable oil prices jumped 5% and sugar rose 7% during the month.Analysts warn that the war could trigger a broader wave of food inflation, as higher fuel, fertiliser and electricity costs increase the expense of transporting, processing and cooking food. About one‑third of global fertiliser production passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane that has been effectively closed since hostilities began.UN projections suggest that, if the crisis endures, global food prices could be 15%–20% higher in the first half of 2026 than pre‑conflict levels. The FAO noted that “price indices across all commodity groups rose to varying degrees, reflecting both market fundamentals and responses to higher energy prices linked to the conflict escalation in the Near East.”Specific commodity trends showed global wheat prices up 4.3% in March, driven by deteriorating crop conditions and drought concerns in the United States, as well as reduced planting in Australia due to soaring fertiliser costs. Better weather in Europe and strong export competition provided some offset.In the United Kingdom, the Food and Drink Federation – representing 12,000 manufacturers – now forecasts a **minimum 9% rise in food prices by the end of 2026**, a sharp increase from the 3.2% forecast made before the Middle East conflict. This outlook assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens within weeks and that major energy facilities return to normal within a year – both uncertain outcomes.British producers are already feeling the pressure. The British Tomato Growers’ Association warned that consumers could see higher prices for tomatoes, peppers and cucumbers within six weeks as gas‑heated glasshouses become more expensive to run.Chancellor Rachel Reeves recently met with leaders of major retailers—including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Morrisons, Marks & Spencer, Aldi and Lidl—to discuss measures that could ease the cost‑of‑living squeeze and strengthen supply chains.Nevertheless, a Bank of England survey of over 2,000 chief financial officers revealed that firms expect to raise their prices by an average of 3.7% over the next year, up from 3.4% in February. Expectations for overall economy‑wide inflation also rose from 3% to 3.5%.

Richard Walker, executive chair of the Iceland supermarket chain and Labour’s appointed cost‑of‑living tsar, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the government should extend the 5‑pence fuel duty cut beyond its September expiry to cushion households from soaring petrol prices. The call comes as the Strait of Hormuz—a vital conduit for roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil—remains blockaded after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran at the end of February. The disruption has triggered a sharp rise in global oil prices, intensifying pressure on the UK economy. Under current policy, UK fuel duty is frozen until September, when a review is scheduled. By contrast, Australia recently announced a 14‑pence‑per‑litre cut to its fuel tax, highlighting the disparity with the UK’s modest 5‑pence reduction. Walker emphasized on air: “Given where we are, we need to be thinking about extending or enlarging the existing cut.” He noted that the original 5‑pence reduction was introduced by the Conservative government in March 2022. Chancellor Rachel Reeves had pledged in her November budget to keep the cut in place until August, followed by a gradual increase over five years. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has signalled that the planned September rise will remain “under review” in light of the ongoing conflict. Data from the RAC shows that, since the war began, the average price of a litre of diesel at UK forecourts has jumped 30 % to 185.2 pence, while petrol has risen 16 % to 154.5 pence per litre. Opposition parties are also weighing in: the Conservatives propose scrapping VAT on energy bills for several years, Reform UK calls for a VAT cut on fuel, and the Liberal Democrats advocate a 10‑pence fuel duty reduction.

Scientists are preparing to establish 4,500 native trees on the fringes of the Brecon Beacons National Park using a novel fertiliser derived from human urine.The fertiliser was produced by Bristol‑based startup NPK Recovery, which linked its mobile processing unit to the toilets serving roughly 700 revellers at the Boomtown festival in Hampshire last July.During the 2025 event the system generated 540 litres of nutrient‑rich liquid, now earmarked for planting beech, Scots pine and other native species in Wales.The three‑year restoration scheme, funded by a Forestry Commission grant, will also incorporate urine collected from additional events, expanding the supply chain for the circular fertiliser.To launch the initiative, a Scots pine seedling was planted on Thursday morning, symbolising the start of what could become a lasting Welsh forest.Lucy Bell‑Reeves, co‑founder of NPK Recovery, noted that field trials have shown the urine‑based product to be as effective as conventional fertilisers, marking its first application on trees.“Using a waste product to grow trees is a circular solution that can revitalise our struggling native species,” Bell‑Reeves said, adding that “we need to stop flushing crop and tree‑growing nutrients down the loo and start using them to increase our fertiliser security.”The company previously processed 1,000 litres of urine collected from women’s urinals at the London Marathon, converting it into an odour‑free liquid using specialised bacteria that recover nitrogen and other nutrients.NPK Recovery’s mobile laboratory enables on‑site conversion, eliminating the need for transport and preserving nutrient integrity.Partnering with the charity Stump Up For Trees, co‑founded by author‑cyclist Rob Penn, the project builds on the charity’s five‑year effort that has already planted over 500,000 trees in the region, half of its one‑million‑tree target.Penn expressed enthusiasm, stating, “This groundbreaking project has implications for the future of sustainable forestry, and collaboration with NPK Recovery brings much‑needed innovation to the sector.”

Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.

UK businesses are planning to raise their prices more rapidly in the coming months due to the escalating costs triggered by the Iran conflict. A recent survey conducted by the Bank of England among over 2,000 chief financial officers revealed that companies now anticipate increasing their prices by 3.7% over the next year. This marks an increase from 3.4% in February, while the expectation of inflation across the economy has also risen from 3% to 3.5%. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly driven up oil and gas prices, leading to predictions of wider price rises as these higher costs impact industries. The UK Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has met with retail bosses to discuss the risks of supply shortages and price increases. There is also pressure on her to mitigate the impact of likely rises in household gas and electricity bills before next winter and to reconsider plans for a 5p per liter increase in fuel duty set to take effect by next March. Bank of England policymakers are closely monitoring UK companies' pricing intentions as they consider whether to raise interest rates in the coming months from their current level of 3.75%. Financial markets are currently pricing in two interest rate rises by the end of the year, reflecting a sharp turnaround from expectations of rate cuts before the conflict began. However, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has cautioned that markets may be getting ahead of themselves, and weak consumer demand may prevent companies from passing on cost increases to their customers. He noted that businesses often report an absence of pricing power. Inflation on the consumer price index was steady at 3% in February but is now expected to rise.

The UK is bracing for a potential third inflationary shock in less than a decade as the conflict between Iran and the US threatens to disrupt oil supplies. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies, is at risk of being blocked, which could lead to a significant increase in oil prices. The impact of such a disruption would be felt globally, with Asia being particularly affected as it buys 80% of the oil transported through the strait. Countries in the region are already experiencing the effects, with governments imposing limits on driving and shortening working weeks to conserve energy. Populations are struggling with dramatic hikes in food prices and shortages of petrol and diesel. In Bangladesh, the government reportedly believes it will run out of oil and gas within weeks. To conserve fuel, some temples in Thailand have stopped cremations. The energy-supply storm may well hit the UK's shores just before next month's elections, prompting Keir Starmer to call Cobra meetings and Rachel Reeves to summon business leaders into Downing Street. The poorest households will be hit hardest by the inflationary shock, with food producers predicting prices will rocket nearly 10% this year. According to calculations done exclusively for this column by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), that will add £127 to the average household's annual food bill. However, the ECIU also notes that because the poorest spend proportionately more of their money on food, they will be hit far worse. The author suggests that the UK needs to adopt a more progressive approach to utility pricing, with a move away from fossil fuels and from the current system of ownership. The days of relying on a growth miracle are over, and the UK needs to focus on addressing the inequality and regressive utility pricing that will exacerbate the impact of the inflationary shock.

The UK Prime Minister's recent announcement of a 'five-point plan' to address the energy crisis has been met with skepticism. During his remarks from Downing Street, Prime Minister Starmer outlined measures that were largely pre-existing or unrelated to the immediate crisis. The plan included: cutting energy bills by over £100 per household, which was announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in last November's budget and has since been adjusted to £117 for an average dual-fuel household; extending the cut in fuel duty until September; supporting people exposed to heating oil rises with £53m; investing in clean British energy through the Clean Power 2030 plan; and pushing for de-escalation in the Middle East. Critics argue that most of these points were not new and did not adequately address the current crisis. The plan did not provide specifics on who else could get help with energy bills or how targeted support would be delivered. The Clean Power 2030 plan, a five-year £200bn infrastructure project, will not yield immediate results for consumers, with savings expected to arrive around 2040. The article concludes that repeating measures from last November's budget is not a plan and that a proper five-point plan would be needed if an energy price shock turns into a supply shock, possibly meaning rationing.

The UK's food inflation is expected to soar to 9% this year, even if the strait of Hormuz opens within the next few weeks, according to the Food and Drink Federation. This represents a significant increase from their previous forecast of 3.2% made before the Middle East conflict.The industry is facing unprecedented cost pressures due to the Iran war, which is driving up energy prices. Dr. Liliana Danila, chief economist at the FDF, stated that the current situation is unprecedented and hard to predict, and that food inflation is likely to rise in the coming months.The 9% forecast assumes that the strait of Hormuz, a key shipping channel, will reopen to cargo traffic within the next two to three weeks, and that most large energy facilities will return to normal within a year. The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is set to meet with the bosses of the UK's biggest supermarkets to discuss the potential impact on the cost of living and possible supply squeezes.Some food companies, such as Princes, have already raised their prices in response to the cost pressures. UK farmers and producers have warned that without government help with surging energy bills, there could be shortages of domestic produce such as tomatoes, cucumbers, and peppers.The British Tomato Growers' Association is campaigning for the government to classify food producers as energy intensive users, which would help reduce their energy bills. If no support is provided, businesses may fail, according to Simon Conway, chair of the BTGA.

The UK’s chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is set to sit down with the chief executives of Sainsbury’s, Tesco and Morrisons on Wednesday. The meeting aims to gauge the scale of possible price hikes and shortages of essential household goods as the nation grapples with a sharp rise in energy, fuel and fertiliser costs triggered by the ongoing Middle East conflict. A Treasury source described the gathering as a "fact‑finding, open discussion" intended to identify any supply squeezes and to forecast the impact on the cost of living over the coming months. Allan Leighton, executive chair of Asda, will not attend but has publicly urged the government to "stand up and start doing stuff" to aid farmers and curb fuel prices, warning that food costs will inevitably climb if the conflict persists. Simon Roberts, chief executive of Sainsbury’s, cautioned that price increases are "unlikely to rise until the summer" thanks to long‑term contracts on energy and fertiliser that currently keep a lid on costs. Nevertheless, UK growers are sounding the alarm. Producers of tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers and aubergines say higher input costs could force them to pull plants from the ground, creating potential gaps on supermarket shelves. Lee Stiles, secretary of the Lea Valley Growers’ Association – the region often dubbed London’s "salad bowl" – is lobbying for indoor food producers to be classified as "energy‑intensive users" alongside steel, chemicals, cement and glass, thereby qualifying for additional support with surging energy bills. Stiles also called on retailers to renegotiate contracts with growers to reflect the cost surge since the Middle East conflict began. He warned that the upcoming increase in standing charges on 1 April – a fixed daily fee for accessing the gas and electricity network – will further strain producers’ margins. "Growers have already invested in plants and labour for three to four months," Stiles said. "When you do the maths, the numbers don’t add up. They would lose less money by sending workers home, pulling the plants out and turning off the boiler." If domestic growers cut the season short, European glasshouses, which normally supply the UK’s salad market at this time of year, may struggle to fill the void, risking a repeat of the fresh‑produce shortages experienced in early 2023. The British Poultry Council (BPC) echoed these concerns, highlighting pressures on supplies of oil, gas, fertiliser and essential feed components. "These factors are creating sustained upward pressure on the cost of poultry production," the BPC warned, adding that while some cost increases may be absorbed, others will inevitably be passed on to consumers. Richard Griffiths, BPC chief executive, noted that while many farmers have long‑term energy deals, costs such as diesel are rising rapidly, and there are fears that vital medicines could become unavailable at any price. In response, the government has announced a £117 cut to household energy bills, an increase to the legal minimum wage, and the launch of a £1 billion "crisis and resilience" fund aimed at helping vulnerable households with expenses such as heating oil.