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Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.

The global oil market is being significantly influenced by online prediction platforms such as Polymarket, with energy traders using data from these platforms to inform their multimillion-dollar trades. Market experts have noted that Polymarket's datafeeds are being used to create algorithms that impact trading in the global Brent crude futures market. The growing reliance on Polymarket has raised concerns that anonymous account holders may be using insider knowledge to place bets, potentially influencing pricing in the global oil market. One energy trader noted that Polymarket had become the best predictor of the oil market's direction since the US-Israel war with Iran triggered a global oil crisis. Ajay Parmar, head of oil trading at ICIS, stated that betting markets have a long history of strong prediction accuracy, and traders are increasingly turning to Polymarket for market indicators. Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at Energy Aspects, also confirmed the adoption of prediction markets as a trading tool, noting that any data with alpha is considered in modern markets. The US investment bank Goldman Sachs has included analysis of prediction-market data in its oil market research, and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has launched a trading tool providing a data feed of Polymarket's prediction markets to help traders make informed decisions. However, not all commodity traders are convinced by Polymarket's track record in predicting market-moving events. One trading analyst noted that Polymarket has made bad calls during the crisis, and that hedge funds may be more interested in the platform than traditional traders.

The usual visual language of hospital dramas relies on sterile whites and bright fluorescents. ‘What I’m Here For’ discards that palette entirely, immersing the audience in a world of black costumes and shadow‑filled set pieces.This daring aesthetic is the result of a collaboration between Vanishing Point of Glasgow and Teater Katapult from Aarhus, Denmark. Designer Mai Katsume outfits nurses, doctors and patients in deep black, arranging them in stark rows that dominate an ominously dark stage.At the centre stands Lærke Schjærff Engelbrecht as Flora, a nurse forced onto an extra weekend shift because of chronic short‑staffing. Even the flickering strip lights beneath her feet are cloaked in darkness, a visual choice amplified by Simon Wilkinson’s austere lighting design that drains the scene of any residual warmth, turning a hectic night ward into a gothic horror tableau.Written by Josephine Eusebius and performed in a blend of Danish and English, the script follows a familiar premise—too many patients, too few staff—but pushes it to a psychological extreme. Flora cheerfully repeats the hospital‑as‑hotel mantra while confronting impossible choices, such as whether to prioritize a pleasant woman with a brain tumour in room 22 or a demanding lady with a heart condition in room 33.The tension is heightened by Mark Melville’s pulse‑driven soundtrack, a low‑frequency thrum that underscores Flora’s isolation. As in many of director Matthew Lenton’s productions, the protagonist is both integral to and alienated from the medical team, a duality made palpable by her physical separation from the other actors and their disembodied commentary.Throughout the performance, Flora remains downstage, engaging in dream‑like exchanges with colleagues whose looming presence becomes as oppressive as the life‑and‑death decisions she must make. The staging forces the audience to feel the weight of each moral dilemma, turning routine triage into an almost tactile nightmare.‘What I’m Here For’ runs at the Tron in Glasgow until 4 April and will tour to other venues until 18 April.

Blanche McIntyre reimagines Noël Coward’s classic Private Lives at Manchester’s Royal Exchange Theatre with a daring in‑the‑round set that spins the audience into the couple’s turbulent romance.The production opens in a sleek, monochrome French resort designed by Dick Bird. As ex‑spouses Amanda (played with acid poise by Jill Halfpenny) and Elyot (delivered with dry detachment by Steve John Shepherd) collide on their respective honeymoons, the stage begins to rotate, creating a queasy, carnival‑like atmosphere that mirrors their escalating desire and spite.Both characters quickly abandon their new partners—Victor, a self‑satisfied ordinary portrayed by Daniel Millar, and the hysterically grating Sibyl, embodied by Shazia Nicholls—and flee to Paris. In Amanda’s cluttered flat, surrounded by half‑eaten meals and booze, the rekindled romance begins to sour, exposing the uglier layers of their destructive bond.The chemistry between Halfpenny and Shepherd shines as they deliver Coward’s razor‑sharp bon mots with effortless flair. Yet, in the second act, the performance feels slightly restrained; moments of lust and violence are hinted at rather than fully unleashed, leaving the climactic confrontation somewhat blunted despite the frantic spinning set.Supporting roles add texture: Millar’s Victor exudes contented self‑importance, while Nicholls hints at a hidden cunning beneath Sibyl’s hysterics. Sara Lessore’s turn as the Parisian maid Louise underscores the privileged caprices of the main characters.Overall, the production presents Amanda and Elyot’s relationship as a capricious game between sophisticated players rather than a dangerously irresistible passion, a nuance amplified by the theatrical whirl that never quite loses control.The show runs at the Royal Exchange until 2 May, offering theatre‑goers a uniquely dizzy experience of Coward’s wit and venom.

Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa has announced a significant decrease in homicides, with a 28% drop in March compared to the same period last year. This development comes as the country intensifies its fight against organized crime, with support from the United States.The government's anti-crime efforts have resulted in 4,300 arrests nationwide and the execution of 2,200 search warrants. Interior Minister John Reimberg attributed these successes to Noboa's leadership and the work of the Security Bloc, a task force composed of national police and military members.Reimberg expressed his commitment to continuing the effort, stating that the Security Bloc's deployment has yielded clear and measurable results. Defence Minister Gian Carlo Loffredo echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that the crackdown is just the beginning.However, concerns have been raised about potential human rights abuses amid the aggressive campaign against cartels. The US has provided intelligence and logistics to support Ecuador's military operation, which has been carried out on the ground by Ecuadorian forces.Noboa has compared Ecuador's struggles with criminal violence to a war, justifying a military-style response. The country's homicide rate has surged since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and Noboa has largely embraced the 'mano dura' or 'iron fist' security policies of other regional leaders.Despite the reported successes, allegations have emerged of civilian safety being threatened. Colombia's President Gustavo Petro alleged that bombs had landed near civilian farms along the Ecuador-Colombia border, and unidentified bodies have been recovered.The allegations have prompted domestic scrutiny of Noboa's campaign, with some questioning whether the attacks are really accomplishing his objectives. Lawmaker Jahiren Noriega Donoso stated that the war launched by Noboa is not a war against crime, but against the poorest among us.

Italy awoke on Wednesday in a state of anger and disbelief after the Azzurri were eliminated from the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualification by a 4-1 penalty shoot‑out defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina, following a 1‑1 draw in regular time.The loss represents the third straight playoff elimination for Italy – previous setbacks came against Sweden and North Macedonia – and has revived what the front page of Corriere della Sera dubbed the "World Cup curse."Italian media, including La Gazzetta dello Sport and Corriere dello Sport, echoed the sentiment with headlines proclaiming “We’re all staying at home,” underscoring the depth of national disappointment.Key moments in the match included a red card for Alessandro Bastoni in the 42nd minute for a last‑man tackle, a turning point that shifted momentum despite Italy leading at the time.Fans expressed their shock and frustration: "Everything went badly from the start of the match. The team wasn’t good, players out of form… it makes no sense," said Davide Caldaretta, a spectator in a Rome pub, to Reuters.Melanie Cardillo, also speaking to Reuters, described herself as “really upset and disappointed,” adding that the repeated failures have eroded hope.Beyond football, Italy recently celebrated a record 30 medals at the Milan‑Cortina Winter Olympics and 40 medals at the 2024 Paris Summer Games, highlighting the country's broader sporting prowess, from speed skater Francesca Lollobrigida to tennis champion Jannik Sinner.Nevertheless, the football debacle prompted a political backlash. Sport Minister Andrea Abodi called on FIGC President Gabriele Gravina to resign, stating, "Italian football needs to be rebuilt from the ground up, starting with changes at the top of the FIGC."Gravina refused to step down, noting that a board meeting next week will determine his future. Tensions have risen between the government and the federation, with Gravina accusing the state of treating football as a "state sport" while favoring other disciplines.Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi weighed in, calling the elimination “unfortunately not an April Fool’s joke” and emphasizing that football is integral to Italy’s cultural identity.In response to Gravina’s remarks, speed skater Francesca Lollobrigida posted sarcastically on Instagram, "I’m an amateur," underscoring the broader debate over responsibility for the missed qualification.As Italy prepares for the next board meeting, the nation faces a pivotal moment: whether to overhaul its football governance or continue grappling with a perceived "curse" that has kept the Azzurri out of the world stage for three consecutive cycles.

Israel’s parliament has approved a law that authorises the death penalty solely for Palestinians convicted in West Bank military courts for what the courts define as "terrorism" killings of Israelis. The measure was greeted with celebration by far‑right politicians, yet it has drawn swift rebuke from the United Nations human‑rights chief, who warned it could constitute a war crime, and from a broad coalition of international observers.Israeli rights organisations argue that the law is the latest manifestation of an apartheid‑style legal framework that systematically privileges Jewish citizens while imposing severe penalties on Palestinians. They contend that such legislation entrenches a system of codified discrimination that has evolved since the state’s founding.Under the new rule, military tribunals in the occupied West Bank – which exclusively try Palestinians – will, by default, impose the death sentence on anyone found guilty of an unlawful killing of Israelis classified as terrorism. In contrast, Israeli citizens charged with comparable offences in the same territory are tried in civilian courts, where the death penalty is not applied.Statistics underscore the disparity: conviction rates for Palestinians in military courts hover at an astonishing 99.74%, whereas Israelis tried for crimes committed in the West Bank have a conviction rate of roughly 3% between 2005 and 2024. These figures highlight the stark imbalance in judicial outcomes.Arab‑Israeli lawmaker Aida Touma‑Suleiman of the Hadash party expressed her dismay, leaving the parliamentary chamber after the vote and stating she anticipated “scenes of happiness” from far‑right figures but was “painful” to see the public echo the same sentiment.The law follows a series of statutes that critics say have progressively eroded Palestinian rights, including the 1950 Absentees’ Property Law, the 2003 Citizenship and Entry into Israel Law, and the 2018 Nation‑State Law, which enshrines Jewish supremacy in identity, settlement policy, and constitutional hierarchy while marginalising Arabic.Human‑rights advocate Yair Dvir of B’Tselem described Israel as an “apartheid regime,” noting that a “whole set of laws” differentiate between Jews and Palestinians and that the death‑penalty legislation is less an outlier than a logical extension of existing policies that deny Palestinians the right to life.Analysts argue that the dehumanisation of Palestinians has deepened to the point where capital punishment can be enacted with minimal dissent and even public celebration by parliamentarians.Physician‑rights activist Tirza Leibowitz of Physicians for Human Rights – Israel warned that the law exemplifies a broader pattern of violations, ranging from inhumane prison conditions to a legal system that often refuses to investigate crimes against Palestinians or actively shields abusive practices.She cited the unresolved deaths of more than 100 Palestinians in the West Bank since the October 2023 Gaza conflict, highlighting the case of 17‑year‑old Walid Ahmad, whose death by starvation in custody was ruled “undeterminable” by an Israeli judge, as evidence of the low value placed on Palestinian lives.Leibowitz also pointed to the recent dropping of charges against soldiers accused of sexual abuse at Sde Temain prison, noting that far‑right protesters, including lawmakers, rallied in support of the accused, further normalising systemic abuse.Touma‑Suleiman linked the new law to the 2018 Nation‑State legislation, recalling a confrontation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in which he dismissed her criticism, insisting Israel remains “the Middle East’s only democracy.” She later observed that far‑right leader Itamar Ben‑Gvir has openly chanted “Death to Arabs,” rebranding it as “Death to terrorists,” thereby blurring the line between extremist rhetoric and state policy.Overall, the death‑penalty law is being portrayed by critics as a stark illustration of an entrenched apartheid system, raising serious questions about Israel’s adherence to international legal standards and the future of Palestinian rights under occupation.

The United Kingdom is set to convene a virtual meeting of 35 countries to assess measures to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical Gulf waterway that has been effectively closed due to the US-Israeli war on Iran. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that UK Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper would host the meeting on Thursday.The meeting aims to “assess all viable diplomatic and political measures that we can take to restore freedom of navigation, guarantee the safety of trapped ships and seafarers and resume the movement of vital commodities”, according to Starmer.Countries around the world have raised serious concerns about Iran’s effective closure of the strait, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas supplies transit. The closure has sent global energy prices soaring and pushed nations to announce that they would release some of their strategic oil and gas reserves in an effort to lessen the crisis.Starmer emphasized that reopening the strait “will not be easy” and that countries that recently signed a statement saying they were ready “to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz” would take part in this week’s talks.In addition to the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the Netherlands are among the countries to have signed it. The UK and other European countries have faced condemnation from US President Donald Trump, who has accused them of both failing to take action to reopen the strait and not providing sufficient support to Washington in its war effort.

India has launched the world's largest census, a monumental task that involves surveying over 1.4 billion people across the country's 28 states and eight union territories. The $1.24 billion exercise, which began on Wednesday, will take place over the next year, with more than three million officials collecting data on household composition, living conditions, and access to basic amenities.The census will be conducted in two phases. The first phase, known as the House Listing and Housing Census, will focus on gathering information on household characteristics, while the second phase will involve population enumeration and socioeconomic details, including caste enumeration for the first time since 1931.The inclusion of caste enumeration has sparked controversy, with some arguing that it will help address social and economic disparities, while others fear it will exacerbate existing divisions. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government had initially resisted including caste questions, citing concerns about creating further social divisions.The census is crucial for policy planning and resource allocation, as it provides insights into demographic trends, housing conditions, and welfare amenities. However, experts have raised concerns about the delay in conducting the census, which has left significant data gaps and may impact the accuracy of surveys and policy decisions.There are also worries about how the census data will be used, particularly in light of the government's plans to implement a National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which have been criticized for potentially targeting Muslims and other marginalized groups.Despite these concerns, experts argue that the census is essential for understanding India's complex social dynamics and addressing the needs of its diverse population. Dipa Sinha, a development economist, emphasized that the census data will help governments plan policies and citizens claim their rights.The census is expected to conclude by March 31 next year, with the government facing pressure to ensure transparency and credibility in the data collection process.