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Ramesh Kumar, a 42‑year‑old wheat farmer in Gurdaspur, Punjab, India, is already recalculating his budget as fertiliser prices climb and deliveries become erratic.He worries that higher input costs could force him to postpone his daughter’s wedding, delay school fees for his children, or even cut back on the amount of fertiliser he applies – a decision that could lower his harvest.While the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran unfolds thousands of kilometres away, its ripple effects are felt in the fields of Punjab, Kashmir, Pakistan’s South Punjab, Bangladesh’s Rangpur and Nepal’s Gulmi district.The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint linking Gulf oil and gas producers to global markets, handles roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments. Disruptions here delay the flow of natural gas used to produce nitrogen‑based fertilisers, inflating freight, insurance and ultimately fertiliser prices.South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, depends heavily on fertiliser‑intensive agriculture. In India, the sector is worth about $400 billion and employs over 46 % of the workforce; in Pakistan, it contributes close to 20 % of GDP; Bangladesh’s agriculture accounts for 12‑13 % of GDP; and Nepal relies on agriculture for roughly 24 % of its economy.Between 30 % and 35 % of India’s fertiliser imports, and up to 25‑30 % of Pakistan’s, Bangladesh’s, and Nepal’s imports, travel through routes that pass the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged blockage could therefore strain supply chains across the region.Governments are attempting to reassure farmers. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced expanded domestic production of urea, DAP and NPK, as well as the rollout of “Made‑in‑India Nano Urea” and solar‑powered irrigation under the PM Kusum scheme.Pakistan’s federal secretary for agriculture highlighted proactive monitoring, increased domestic urea and DAP output, and measures to keep fertiliser affordable.Bangladesh plans to import 500,000 tonnes of urea in the short term and is exploring alternative sources from China and Morocco, while Nepal’s agriculture ministry says supplies for the upcoming rainy season are secured, though it warns of possible shipment delays.On the ground, farmers are already adjusting. In Kashmir, mustard grower Ghulam Rasool says he reduces fertiliser use as soon as price signals rise, even before actual shortages appear. In Pakistan’s South Punjab, wheat farmer Muneer Ahmad fears higher costs will affect the entire community. In Bangladesh, Mohammad Ibrahim notes that fertiliser availability is becoming unpredictable, and in Nepal, Meghnath Aryal worries that delayed deliveries will hurt crop yields.These individual decisions have broader implications. Reduced fertiliser application can lower yields, which in turn pushes up food prices—a critical concern in a region where households allocate a large share of income to food.While no immediate shortage has been declared, the combination of higher global energy prices, logistical bottlenecks and geopolitical risk makes the situation volatile. Authorities in all four countries are urging farmers to supplement chemical inputs with organic alternatives such as manure, compost and green manuring.For Ramesh Kumar and millions of his peers, the distant Gulf crisis is not an abstract geopolitical story; it is a daily calculation of whether they can afford to feed their families and meet essential expenses.

For the first time, the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust (JRCT) is creating a dedicated reparations role, appointing Prof. Keon West—a Rhodes Scholar and author of The Science of Racism—to lead the effort. West, who also serves as a visiting professor at the London School of Economics and heads research at the Runnymede Trust, will begin his tenure later this month. The appointment arrives amid intensifying global calls for former colonial powers to confront historic injustices. West’s mandate is to map how enslavement, indentured labour and European imperialism fed the supply chains of Rowntree’s iconic brands such as KitKat, Fruit Pastilles and Smarties. Founded in 1904 when philanthropist Joseph Rowntree endowed the trust with profits from his chocolate and cocoa ventures, JRCT operates on Quaker principles aimed at tackling the roots of inequality. Recent research, spurred by the Black Lives Matter movement, uncovered that African and Asian workers were exploited in Rowntree’s production lines throughout the 19th and 20th centuries. Historical investigations by the Rowntree Society revealed that, while the family never directly owned enslaved people, their businesses sold commodities produced by enslaved or unfree labour as far back as 1822. The company also benefitted from the indenture system, acquiring plantations in Dominica, Jamaica and Trinidad in the 1890s to grow cocoa, bananas and other crops. Further links to colonial exploitation include purchases of cocoa from Portuguese‑controlled São Tomé and Príncipe, as well as commercial interests in Nigeria, Ghana and apartheid‑era South Africa. In the early 1980s, Black workers at the South African subsidiary Wilson Rowntree faced harsh labour suppression. In 2021, JRCT issued a public apology, stating it was “deeply sorry” for its historical connections to “abhorrent practices” and acknowledging the lasting impact of these actions on systemic racism today. West will design a comprehensive reparations programme that engages directly with affected communities—“Black people, brown people and people of colour”—to develop long‑term restorative justice strategies. He said, "I am honoured to accept this role. It offers the power and the responsibility to make real, meaningful changes in the lives of those who have been exploited." JRCT chief executive Nicola Purdy expressed enthusiasm, noting that the reparations initiative aligns with the trust’s charitable purpose of promoting peace, equality, human rights and climate action. Financially, JRCT allocated £13.5 million in grants in 2025, supporting organisations that advance its core missions. In 2023, it contributed £10,000 to an all‑party parliamentary group advocating for a formal UK apology for slavery and colonisation. The Rowntree family, alongside fellow Quaker dynasties Fry and Cadbury, were central to the British confectionery trade during the colonial era. Their brand was later acquired by Nestlé in 1988, but the trust’s new reparations focus underscores a broader reckoning with the historical foundations of the industry.

The US government has taken legal action against Illinois for attempting to regulate the rapidly growing online prediction market industry. The lawsuit, filed in Chicago federal court, claims that Illinois' efforts to shut down so-called designated contract markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are unlawful.Online prediction markets allow users to bet on a wide range of events, from Oscar winners to military conflicts. These platforms classify their offerings as 'event derivatives,' which fall under federal commodities law and are overseen by the CFTC. This classification allows them to operate in all 50 states for users 18 and older.Illinois introduced legislation earlier this year that would impose strict regulations on prediction markets, including an effective ban on sports-related trades, advertising restrictions, and age verification measures. The CFTC argues that this legislation intrudes on its exclusive authority to regulate national swaps markets.The lawsuit is the first by the CFTC to block state gaming regulators from policing operators of prediction markets. It cites cease-and-desist letters sent by the Illinois gaming board to companies like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, alleging violations of Illinois gambling laws.The federal lawsuit names Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul as defendants. The case highlights the ongoing debate over the regulation of prediction markets, with some arguing they are essentially gambling operations and others seeing them as federally regulated financial exchanges.Congress is also considering federal measures to regulate prediction markets, including a bipartisan bill introduced by US senators that would ban federally regulated platforms from allowing wagers on sporting events.

The Italian football landscape has been plunged into crisis with the resignation of Gabriele Gravina as president of the Italian Football Federation (FIGC). This development comes on the heels of Italy's failure to qualify for the World Cup finals for the third consecutive time, losing on penalties to Bosnia and Herzegovina in a playoff match.Gravina's departure follows intense scrutiny and pressure from the country's minister for sport, Andrea Abodi, who called for a renewal of the FIGC leadership. Gianluigi Buffon, the national team delegation head, also announced his resignation, further exacerbating the turmoil within the Italian football hierarchy.The FIGC's future leadership will have to navigate significant challenges, particularly regarding Italy's co-hosting of Euro 2032 alongside Turkey. UEFA president Aleksander Ceferin has issued a stern warning, emphasizing that the tournament's hosting rights are contingent upon Italy's ability to meet the necessary infrastructure requirements. Ceferin expressed concerns about the state of Italy's stadiums, highlighting that they are among the worst in Europe.Italy is required to submit its list of five stadiums for the tournament by October, with only Juventus's Allianz Stadium currently meeting the requirements. While plans are underway for the redevelopment of San Siro in Milan, Napoli's Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, and the construction of a new stadium in Rome, the deadline for commencing work on new or upgraded venues is March 2027.Ceferin also pointed to deeper issues within Italian football, citing the need for modernization of football facilities and a complex relationship between football politics and general politics. He expressed concern that the crisis extends beyond individual leadership, warning that the greatest loss would be to the FIGC and the potential difficulty in finding a suitable replacement who loves football and Italy as much as Gravina does.

Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.

The global oil market is being significantly influenced by online prediction platforms such as Polymarket, with energy traders using data from these platforms to inform their multimillion-dollar trades. Market experts have noted that Polymarket's datafeeds are being used to create algorithms that impact trading in the global Brent crude futures market. The growing reliance on Polymarket has raised concerns that anonymous account holders may be using insider knowledge to place bets, potentially influencing pricing in the global oil market. One energy trader noted that Polymarket had become the best predictor of the oil market's direction since the US-Israel war with Iran triggered a global oil crisis. Ajay Parmar, head of oil trading at ICIS, stated that betting markets have a long history of strong prediction accuracy, and traders are increasingly turning to Polymarket for market indicators. Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at Energy Aspects, also confirmed the adoption of prediction markets as a trading tool, noting that any data with alpha is considered in modern markets. The US investment bank Goldman Sachs has included analysis of prediction-market data in its oil market research, and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has launched a trading tool providing a data feed of Polymarket's prediction markets to help traders make informed decisions. However, not all commodity traders are convinced by Polymarket's track record in predicting market-moving events. One trading analyst noted that Polymarket has made bad calls during the crisis, and that hedge funds may be more interested in the platform than traditional traders.

The usual visual language of hospital dramas relies on sterile whites and bright fluorescents. ‘What I’m Here For’ discards that palette entirely, immersing the audience in a world of black costumes and shadow‑filled set pieces.This daring aesthetic is the result of a collaboration between Vanishing Point of Glasgow and Teater Katapult from Aarhus, Denmark. Designer Mai Katsume outfits nurses, doctors and patients in deep black, arranging them in stark rows that dominate an ominously dark stage.At the centre stands Lærke Schjærff Engelbrecht as Flora, a nurse forced onto an extra weekend shift because of chronic short‑staffing. Even the flickering strip lights beneath her feet are cloaked in darkness, a visual choice amplified by Simon Wilkinson’s austere lighting design that drains the scene of any residual warmth, turning a hectic night ward into a gothic horror tableau.Written by Josephine Eusebius and performed in a blend of Danish and English, the script follows a familiar premise—too many patients, too few staff—but pushes it to a psychological extreme. Flora cheerfully repeats the hospital‑as‑hotel mantra while confronting impossible choices, such as whether to prioritize a pleasant woman with a brain tumour in room 22 or a demanding lady with a heart condition in room 33.The tension is heightened by Mark Melville’s pulse‑driven soundtrack, a low‑frequency thrum that underscores Flora’s isolation. As in many of director Matthew Lenton’s productions, the protagonist is both integral to and alienated from the medical team, a duality made palpable by her physical separation from the other actors and their disembodied commentary.Throughout the performance, Flora remains downstage, engaging in dream‑like exchanges with colleagues whose looming presence becomes as oppressive as the life‑and‑death decisions she must make. The staging forces the audience to feel the weight of each moral dilemma, turning routine triage into an almost tactile nightmare.‘What I’m Here For’ runs at the Tron in Glasgow until 4 April and will tour to other venues until 18 April.

Blanche McIntyre reimagines Noël Coward’s classic Private Lives at Manchester’s Royal Exchange Theatre with a daring in‑the‑round set that spins the audience into the couple’s turbulent romance.The production opens in a sleek, monochrome French resort designed by Dick Bird. As ex‑spouses Amanda (played with acid poise by Jill Halfpenny) and Elyot (delivered with dry detachment by Steve John Shepherd) collide on their respective honeymoons, the stage begins to rotate, creating a queasy, carnival‑like atmosphere that mirrors their escalating desire and spite.Both characters quickly abandon their new partners—Victor, a self‑satisfied ordinary portrayed by Daniel Millar, and the hysterically grating Sibyl, embodied by Shazia Nicholls—and flee to Paris. In Amanda’s cluttered flat, surrounded by half‑eaten meals and booze, the rekindled romance begins to sour, exposing the uglier layers of their destructive bond.The chemistry between Halfpenny and Shepherd shines as they deliver Coward’s razor‑sharp bon mots with effortless flair. Yet, in the second act, the performance feels slightly restrained; moments of lust and violence are hinted at rather than fully unleashed, leaving the climactic confrontation somewhat blunted despite the frantic spinning set.Supporting roles add texture: Millar’s Victor exudes contented self‑importance, while Nicholls hints at a hidden cunning beneath Sibyl’s hysterics. Sara Lessore’s turn as the Parisian maid Louise underscores the privileged caprices of the main characters.Overall, the production presents Amanda and Elyot’s relationship as a capricious game between sophisticated players rather than a dangerously irresistible passion, a nuance amplified by the theatrical whirl that never quite loses control.The show runs at the Royal Exchange until 2 May, offering theatre‑goers a uniquely dizzy experience of Coward’s wit and venom.

Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa has announced a significant decrease in homicides, with a 28% drop in March compared to the same period last year. This development comes as the country intensifies its fight against organized crime, with support from the United States.The government's anti-crime efforts have resulted in 4,300 arrests nationwide and the execution of 2,200 search warrants. Interior Minister John Reimberg attributed these successes to Noboa's leadership and the work of the Security Bloc, a task force composed of national police and military members.Reimberg expressed his commitment to continuing the effort, stating that the Security Bloc's deployment has yielded clear and measurable results. Defence Minister Gian Carlo Loffredo echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that the crackdown is just the beginning.However, concerns have been raised about potential human rights abuses amid the aggressive campaign against cartels. The US has provided intelligence and logistics to support Ecuador's military operation, which has been carried out on the ground by Ecuadorian forces.Noboa has compared Ecuador's struggles with criminal violence to a war, justifying a military-style response. The country's homicide rate has surged since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and Noboa has largely embraced the 'mano dura' or 'iron fist' security policies of other regional leaders.Despite the reported successes, allegations have emerged of civilian safety being threatened. Colombia's President Gustavo Petro alleged that bombs had landed near civilian farms along the Ecuador-Colombia border, and unidentified bodies have been recovered.The allegations have prompted domestic scrutiny of Noboa's campaign, with some questioning whether the attacks are really accomplishing his objectives. Lawmaker Jahiren Noriega Donoso stated that the war launched by Noboa is not a war against crime, but against the poorest among us.