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The Iran war has laid bare the world's reliance on fossil fuels, with oil prices reaching $110 a barrel and potentially rising to $150. This has significant implications for global food security, with food prices expected to leap further due to a fertiliser supply crunch.The UN climate chief, Simon Stiell, noted that fossil fuel dependency is 'ripping away national security and sovereignty and replacing it with subservience and rising costs.' The world's top emitters are divided into two camps: those pursuing a low-carbon future and those determined to exploit their fossil fuel reserves.China, the world's biggest emitter, is leading the charge for an electrified future, with renewables growing at record levels and clean energy driving a third of its GDP growth. India has also set ambitious targets, aiming to generate 60% of its electricity from low-carbon sources by 2035.In contrast, countries like the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are benefiting from high fossil fuel prices, with the US oil and gas sector set for a $60bn windfall. The US under Trump stands out as a paradox, with emissions falling until last year but now facing a potential rollback of climate protections.The war in Iran has also highlighted the need for a global transition to clean energy. As John Kerry noted, 'The future is being able to harness the power of electrons and send them where we need them, and use them where and when we need them.' Reducing methane emissions could cut temperatures by 0.3C by the 2040s, and a mandatory methane agreement may be necessary to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

Pakistan has put forward a two-phase plan to bring an end to the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, and to reopen the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. This initiative has been shared with both Iran and the United States, and is currently being considered by both sides.According to sources, Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesman for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has acknowledged Pakistan's diplomatic efforts. The plan, tentatively referred to as the 'Islamabad Accord', involves an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with 15 to 20 days allocated to finalize a broader settlement.The proposed agreement would include Iranian commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets. However, Tehran has responded by stating that it will not reopen the strait as part of a temporary ceasefire, and has expressed skepticism about the proposal.The US has not yet responded to Pakistan's plan, while Iran has rejected a 15-point plan put forward by the US last month, describing it as 'illogical'. The conflict has resulted in significant human suffering, with over 2,000 people killed in Iran since the war began on February 28.The situation remains volatile, with Trump threatening 'hell' on Tehran if a deal is not reached by the end of Tuesday. The international community is closely watching the developments, as the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical artery for global fuel supplies, with over 20 percent of the world's oil and gas passing through the waterway.

Iran has issued a threat to close the Bab al-Mandeb shipping route, a vital waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, in response to escalating tensions with the US. Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that Iranian allies could shut the route, similar to Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.The Bab al-Mandeb is a crucial passage for global oil trade, with 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products passing through it in 2024, accounting for 5% of the global total. A closure of both the Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz would block 25% of the world's oil and gas supply.The strait is effectively controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis, who have already demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping in the region. During Israel's conflict in Gaza, the Houthis blocked the Bab al-Mandeb for ships associated with Israel or the US.A closure of the Bab al-Mandeb would have significant implications for global trade, particularly for Saudi Arabia's oil exports to Asia and global container shipping from China, India, and other Asian countries to Europe. It could also exacerbate the ongoing global energy supply crisis.Experts warn that a blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb would create a 'nightmare scenario,' disrupting trade toward Europe and potentially leading to a broader conflict in the region.

For Konstantin, a 53‑year‑old resident of St Petersburg, the war in Ukraine has become a literal scent in the air. Over the past fortnight he has repeatedly detected the acrid odor of burning crude, fuel and chemicals drifting from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s two largest Baltic oil terminals. The facilities at Ust‑Luga and Primorsk together handle about 40% of Moscow’s seaborne oil exports and roughly 2% of global oil supply, according to the International Energy Agency. Both ports lie within 150 km of St Petersburg, making the smoke visible – and smelt – to locals. Ukrainian drones have flown more than 1,000 km from the front lines to strike storage tanks and loading infrastructure, igniting fires that have burned for days. The smell, described by Konstantin as a mix of diesel exhaust, burning plastic and rotten eggs, first appeared in late March. These attacks are a key element of Kyiv’s strategy to erode Russia’s “unexpected windfall” from oil exports, a revenue stream that has surged as the US‑Israel campaign against Iran pushed global oil prices higher. Satellite imagery shows extensive damage at both terminals, with Ust‑Luga’s sprawling processing complex blackened by fire. As a result, both ports are currently unable to dispatch cargo, forcing traders to reroute oil to smaller Baltic and Black Sea ports that lack the capacity to absorb the displaced volume. Financial analysts estimate that the disruption has already cost Moscow roughly $1 billion in lost export earnings, according to Bloomberg data released on March 31. Moreover, every $10 rise in global oil prices translates into about $1.6 billion of additional monthly income for the Kremlin. Russian officials have blamed European nations for allegedly facilitating the drone overflights, but Ukrainian experts dispute this claim. Andrey Pronin, a pioneer of Ukraine’s drone warfare, emphasized that the strikes are meticulously planned to stay within Russian airspace, bypassing air‑defence systems. Since the campaign began, Ukrainian forces have targeted 13 oil sites, seriously damaging at least eight refineries from the Baltic coast to the Volga region. The attacks are timed to coincide with the heightened profitability Russia enjoys from the Iran‑related oil price surge, according to researcher Nikolay Mitrokhin of Bremen University. Beyond the immediate economic impact, Kyiv views the strikes as leverage in negotiations with Moscow. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has floated the idea of a temporary moratorium on attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in exchange for concessions, though the strategy also inadvertently benefits Iran by sustaining higher oil prices. On the tactical side, Ukraine now relies heavily on FP‑1 drones produced by the domestic Firepoint company. These unmanned aircraft can carry up to 120 kg of explosives and travel roughly 1,500 km, enabling strikes deep inside Russian territory. For civilians living near the conflict zones, the nightly “fireworks” of explosions have become a grim routine. Abdulla, a Tatar resident of Crimea, described the constant shelling as a new normal, while analysts note that President Vladimir Putin remains resolute, using the ongoing talks with the White House as a diplomatic façade. Overall, the Ukrainian drone campaign illustrates how modern warfare increasingly intertwines kinetic attacks with strategic economic disruption, reshaping the dynamics of the Russia‑Ukraine war and its broader geopolitical reverberations.

Ukraine's military has launched a significant drone strike on Russian energy infrastructure in the Black Sea, targeting the port of Novorossiysk. According to Ukrainian drone forces commander Robert Brovdi, the overnight attack hit the Admiral Makarov missile carrier in the port, which serves as Russia's largest oil exporting outlet on the Black Sea.The attack is part of Ukraine's broader strategy to disrupt Russian energy exports and reduce Moscow's revenues. Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in recent weeks, aiming to halt Russian oil exports and impact the Russian economy.Russian authorities reported that at least eight people, including two children, were injured in Novorossiysk. Videos posted on Telegram showed a fire at one of the oil port's docks. Novorossiysk Mayor Andrei Kravchenko stated that debris from drones had fallen on two locations in the city, including a residential area.Russia's military claimed that air defense units had downed 148 Ukrainian drones over a three-hour period. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal, located in the Novorossiysk port area, exports oil from Kazakhstan and has major US oil companies, such as Chevron and ExxonMobil, as shareholders.The attack on Novorossiysk comes amid a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. On the previous day, Ukrainian drones struck Russia's Baltic Sea port of Primorsk and the NORSI oil refinery in Nizhny Novgorod. These attacks are part of Ukraine's efforts to reduce Moscow's revenues from oil sales, which are crucial for the Russian economy.In response to the attacks, Russia's Ministry of Defence accused Ukraine of deliberately targeting the CPC terminal to inflict economic damage on its largest shareholders, including US and Kazakh energy companies.

President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum demanding that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. Eastern Time on April 7 (midnight GMT on April 8) or face the destruction of national power plants and major bridges.This demand mirrors a March 21 warning in which Trump threatened to strike Iran’s power plants – “the biggest one first” – if the waterway was not fully reopened within 48 hours.Since then, the deadline has been extended several times, with the White House citing progress in secret negotiations aimed at ending the ongoing conflict, a claim Iran publicly denies.While Trump has repeatedly declared that Iran would “lose every power plant and every other plant they have in the whole country,” he has not identified specific facilities as targets.The president has also threatened to demolish Iran’s bridges; a recent U.S.–Israeli strike damaged the B1 bridge in Karaj, a high‑profile structure slated for inauguration, underscoring the tangible risk to civilian infrastructure.Legal analysts warn that such attacks could constitute “collective punishment,” a practice prohibited under international humanitarian law.Iran’s electricity network comprises hundreds of power stations that together form one of the Middle East’s largest grids, supplying power to approximately 92 million people. Most facilities cluster around major population centres—Tehran, Mashhad, and Isfahan—where demand is highest.The generation mix is dominated by natural‑gas‑fired plants, supplemented by coal, oil, hydro, and a single nuclear facility. In the north and centre of the country, dense clusters of gas‑fired stations serve Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan and Mashhad.Along the Gulf coast, a second concentration of plants benefits from proximity to vast gas fields and ports, enabling large thermal stations to operate on abundant natural gas. This coastal belt also hosts the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, Iran’s only nuclear reactor with a capacity of 1,000 MW, a site that has been repeatedly targeted by U.S. and Israeli forces, raising concerns about potential radioactive fallout.Hydropower generation is centred on a series of dams along the Karun River, the country’s primary source of hydroelectric power.All electricity is transmitted through a national grid managed by the Iran Grid Management Company, delivering power to cities, industry and households.A map of Iranian power stations with capacities of 100 MW or more shows that a single 100 MW plant can typically supply electricity to 75,000–100,000 homes, depending on consumption patterns.The nation’s largest facility is the Damavand Power Plant in Pakdasht, about 50 km southeast of Tehran, boasting a capacity of 2,868 MW—enough to energise more than two million homes.Key high‑capacity plants include:Damavand (Pakdasht) – Natural‑gas combined‑cycle, 2,868 MW.Shahid Salimi – Neka, Caspian Sea coast, natural gas, 2,215 MW.Shahid Rajaee – Near Qazvin, natural gas, 2,043 MW.Karun‑3 Dam – Khuzestan Province, hydropower, 2,000 MW.Kerman – Natural gas, 1,912 MW.Other strategically important stations are the Ramin Power Plant (1,903 MW, gas), the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant (1,000 MW, nuclear), and the Bandar Abbas Power Plant (1,330 MW, oil) near the Strait of Hormuz.Iran’s electricity generation is heavily fossil‑fuel dependent: in 2025, 86 % of power came from natural gas, 7 % from oil‑fired plants, about 5 % from hydropower, 2 % from nuclear, and less than 1 % from solar and wind. This makes Iran one of the world’s most gas‑reliant power systems.Targeting the grid would therefore cripple energy supply for millions, disrupt industrial output, and could trigger a humanitarian crisis, while also escalating geopolitical tensions in an already volatile region.

Parts of Asia are already feeling the strain of the Iran war, with fuel supplies tightening and prices rising. Some countries are warning that their stocks may run out, revealing just how fragile the global energy system is.The impact of the war is being felt far from the battlefield, with the threat to oil flows causing immediate concern. This has raised questions about the resilience of the global energy system and its ability to withstand geopolitical tensions.Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of Research and Strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, provides insight into the situation.

The global oil trade is facing a chokepoint crisis, with Libya's oil disputes mirroring the situation in the Hormuz Strait. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil transportation, was briefly closed after US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, causing Brent crude oil prices to soar to nearly $120 a barrel.Libya, with its strategically located oil terminals on the northeastern coast, has become a crucial player in the global oil trade. The country's light, sweet grades of oil are particularly valuable to European refiners. However, Libya's political instability and factional oil deals are threatening to disrupt oil supplies, with Europe's energy security hanging in the balance.The Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Khalifa Haftar, controls the territory where Libya's oil is located, while the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli signs oil contracts. This has led to a situation where Tripoli may sign oil contracts, but Haftar decides whether oil actually flows. The Arkenu agreement, a private oil company linked to the Haftar family, was recently terminated due to corruption allegations, leaving the future of Libya's oil supplies uncertain.The US is attempting to broker new talks between Tripoli and Haftar's camp, but a deal is not yet certain. Meanwhile, European energy security is at risk, with the Mediterranean Sea becoming a battleground for proxy wars between Russia and Ukraine. The sabotage of oil infrastructure and attacks on tankers are exacerbating the situation, highlighting the need for a stable and secure oil supply to Europe.

Recent developments have positioned Asia as the central arena of the global oil crisis, a shift driven by a confluence of rising consumption, supply-chain bottlenecks, and heightened geopolitical friction across the region.Demand for petroleum products in major Asian economies continues to outpace the limited output from traditional exporters, intensifying competition for scarce barrels. At the same time, regional disputes—particularly those affecting key maritime routes and production hubs—have compounded the supply shortfall, prompting governments and industry leaders to reassess energy strategies.Analysts warn that the crisis could ripple through global markets, inflating transport costs, squeezing manufacturing margins, and accelerating the push toward alternative energy sources. Policymakers are now under pressure to balance short‑term relief measures with longer‑term diversification plans to mitigate future vulnerabilities.While the situation remains fluid, the emergence of Asia as the crisis’s hotspot underscores the interconnected nature of modern energy systems and the urgent need for coordinated international responses.