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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest World Economic Outlook, warning of a significantly darkened global economic outlook. The report cites the outbreak of war in the Middle East on February 28, 2026, as a major factor in the deteriorating outlook.The IMF's January report was titled “Steady amid Divergent Forces”; whereas the latest outlook is headlined “Global Economy in the Shadow of War”. The IMF now expects the global economy to slow compared to its previous forecast in January.The latest outlook notes that the global outlook has abruptly darkened following the outbreak of war. Far be it for the IMF to gloat, but its suggestion in January that “steady” was not a word to describe the global economy unless you were desperately trying to make the madness of Donald Trump seem normal has aged quite well.The IMF remains unwilling to name Donald Trump, while noting the lingering effects of the persistent rise in energy prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, it only talks about the Middle East conflict as though it sprang out of nowhere.The IMF warns of three possible scenarios: a bad scenario where Trump, Israel and Iran come to an agreement; an adverse scenario where things carry on for the rest of the year and oil stays around US$100 per barrel; and a severe scenario where nothing is resolved, oil prices reach $125 in 2027, gas prices increase by 200% over the same period, and food prices increase by 5% in 2026 and 10% in 2027.Even under the current bad scenario, the global economy is expected to slow compared to what the IMF forecast in January. But under the adverse and severe scenarios the global economy grows by just 2.0% this year and 2.2% next year.For context, over the past 40 years, the global economy has grown slower than 2.2% only three times – 1992 (global recession), 2009 (the GFC) and 2020 (Covid).The IMF has downgraded Australia’s growth by more than most. Even under the most optimistic scenario growth is 0.5% worse than was forecast last October – a bigger downgrade than all G7 nations.The IMF warns against governments doing popular things like energy caps or subsidies, designed to protect households and firms. It worries that such policies will increase inflation because we’ll all suddenly have so much more money to spend.Gas companies exporting LNG from Australia will be cheering on the war as it keeps gas prices – and their profits – ever higher. The senate is investigating changing the way gas is taxed. An ACTU proposal for a 25% tax on exports would raise roughly $17bn a year.

As millions of Americans rush to file their taxes on Tax Day, a new report reveals that the average US household spent $4,049 on military-related spending in 2025, up from $3,707 in 2024. This increase comes as Donald Trump pushes for a 40% increase in federal defense spending, despite growing concerns over rising living costs and government expenditure.The report by the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) thinktank found that military-related spending in 2025 includes about $1,870 going to Pentagon contractors, $770 to military personnel, $130 for nuclear weapons, and $57 for aid to foreign militaries. The spending does not account for the cost of the US-Israeli war with Iran, which began in February 2026 and has already exceeded $11.3bn in the first six days alone.The IPS report highlights that these enormous sums for the Pentagon and militarism come with enormous costs to ordinary people – both in terms of the opportunity cost for other programs and the drain on their wallets. The analysis is based on an average 'tax filing unit' with a total taxable income of $104,000.Americans have filed their taxes this year amid growing public concern over cost of living, taxes, and government spending. A recent Fox News poll found that 70% of registered voters surveyed believe their taxes are too high, up 11 points from last year. The same poll also found that 29% of registered voters said they were concerned with 'how the government spends their tax dollars.'Beyond military spending, the report estimates that $2,492 of the average taxpayer's federal income tax went to Medicaid, $2,207 to Medicare, and $31 to substance abuse and mental health programs. The report also found that the average taxpayer paid about $396 for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (Snap) and $607 for the Department of Education.The data has significant implications for the economy, as US inflation surged in March with prices up 0.9% compared with last month and 3.3% over the year, amid the US-Israel war with Iran. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey recorded a 10.7% drop to its lowest level on record.

The biggest public backer of World Liberty Financial, the crypto venture co‑founded by the Trump family, has publicly accused the firm of embedding a covert "backdoor blacklisting" feature that allows it to freeze token holdings at will. On Sunday, blockchain entrepreneur Justin Sun posted on X, alleging that World Liberty’s smart contracts for the WLFI token contain a tool that can unilaterally freeze, restrict, or confiscate any user’s assets without cause or recourse. Sun did not provide evidence, but said his own wallet was locked in September, making him the "first and single largest victim" of the alleged mechanism. World Liberty responded on X, stating, "We have the contracts. We have the evidence. We have the truth. See you in court, pal," and directed observers to its own posts for clarification. The company’s official risk disclosures do note that it may block or freeze addresses deemed linked to illegal activity or terms violations – a practice also employed by other crypto issuers such as Tether. Sun, who invested tens of millions of dollars in WLFI and later increased his stake to at least $75 million according to his 2025 posts, has not shared the purported blockchain records that supposedly show his wallet being blacklisted by a single administrative account. World Liberty, launched in 2024, claimed it would empower small investors through a decentralized‑finance app that has yet to launch. Reuters analysis indicated the venture generated **more than $460 million** for the Trump family in the first half of 2025. In March, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission settled a 2023 lawsuit against Sun for $10 million, alleging fraud and the sale of unregistered crypto securities. Sun made no admission of wrongdoing. The dispute highlights the murky regulatory environment for crypto in the United States, where the SEC has limited jurisdiction and has declined to comment on the legality of token‑freezing practices.

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran are expected to resume in Islamabad within days, placing President Donald Trump under intense pressure to deliver an Iran accord that can be credibly billed as superior to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) brokered by former President Barack Obama. Two tests dominate the diplomatic calculus: the deal must demonstrably exceed the Obama agreement, and it must ensure that Iran derives no lasting strategic advantage, particularly over the vital Strait of Hormuz. While direct comparisons with the 159‑page JCPOA are imperfect—given the evolution of Iran’s nuclear program and the emergence of non‑nuclear concerns—the Trump team is framing its objectives around four pivotal issues. 1. Enrichment suspension: In Geneva on 26 February, the U.S. demanded a 10‑year freeze on all domestic uranium enrichment, a figure Iran’s foreign minister deemed unrealistic beyond three years. In Islamabad, the U.S. escalated the ask to a 20‑year suspension, yet Trump publicly dismissed even that, insisting on a permanent ban. The practical timeline for Iran to restart enrichment after the damage to its facilities remains uncertain. 2. Highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile: The original JCPOA capped uranium enrichment at 3.65% and limited the stockpile to 300 kg. Iran now holds 440.9 kg of 60%‑enriched uranium—a material that can be rapidly converted to weapons‑grade (90%)—mostly stored as UF₆ gas in scuba‑tank‑sized canisters. Tehran offered to down‑blend this stockpile to 3.67% in an irreversible process, mirroring the 2015 deal’s provisions. The U.S., however, is pressing for the entire stockpile to be removed from Iran under American supervision, a stance that raises questions about the relative merits of in‑country down‑blending versus export. 3. Sanctions relief: The JCPOA promised the release of roughly $100 billion in frozen Iranian assets and the lifting of oil trade restrictions, while retaining sanctions on terrorism, human rights, and missile proliferation. In the Geneva framework, over 80% of sanctions would be lifted, leaving only human‑rights‑related measures. Trump’s administration, wary of political backlash, seeks to attach conditions on how Iran can spend the relief, a demand Tehran rejects, insisting on a permanent, irreversible lifting of sanctions. 4. Non‑nuclear issues: Trump has repeatedly criticized the JCPOA for isolating Iran’s nuclear program from its broader regional behavior. The current negotiations must grapple with Iran’s ballistic‑missile program, support for proxy forces, and the strategic future of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials are divided: one camp favors leveraging the strait for immediate revenue and national pride, while another views it as a diplomatic lever to secure a lasting ceasefire and security guarantees. The confluence of these challenges creates a “marshmallow test” for both sides—whether they can forgo short‑term temptations in favor of a durable, long‑term settlement. As the Trump presidency approaches its final year, the ability to craft a deal that convincingly outperforms the Obama era while addressing the expanded nuclear and geopolitical landscape will determine the legacy of U.S. policy on Iran and its impact on regional stability.

British Chancellor Rachel Reeves has stepped up her criticism of Donald Trump's war on Iran, describing it as a 'mistake' that has destabilized the global economy and damaged living standards around the world.In a marked fraying of the transatlantic relationship, Reeves said Trump's decision to break off from diplomatic talks with Iran and launch airstrikes seemed to have left the president in a worse place than he started.“I think it was a mistake to end those [talks with Iran] and to enter into conflict, because I'm not convinced that we are safer today than we were a few weeks ago,” she told an event in Washington.Reeves' comments added to blunt criticism of Trump she made just before flying out on Tuesday, when she expressed frustration at the 'folly' of his decision to go to war without a clear exit plan.The criticism adds to an increasingly tense atmosphere between Downing Street and the White House, with Trump's attacks on Prime Minister Keir Starmer becoming increasingly personal.The IMF warned on Tuesday that a further escalation in the Iran war could trigger a global recession that would affect the UK more than any of the other G7 nations.Reeves called for the urgent reopening of the strait of Hormuz to calm global energy prices, saying the lack of clear US targets in negotiations with Iran had worsened the situation.“We had the waterway open a few weeks ago. So, if now the objective is to reopen the strait of Hormuz? Well it was open at the beginning of this conflict,” Reeves added.Reeves said she had come to the IMF meetings to “deliver that fair message” that the conflict in the Middle East was hitting living standards worldwide and required urgent de-escalation.

President Donald Trump announced on Fox Business that he will dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if the central‑bank chief does not vacate the post by the statutory end of his term on May 15. “I’ll have to fire him, OK, if he’s not leaving on time,” Trump said, adding that he had previously held back the decision to avoid controversy. Powell, who has just over a month left in his tenure, has repeatedly been criticized by Trump for what the president calls a “bad job” and for refusing to lower interest rates despite Trump’s repeated demands since his return to the White House in January 2025. In January, Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Powell. Warsh, known for his criticism of the Fed’s relatively high rates, is expected to align more closely with Trump’s push for rate cuts. His confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee is slated for April 21, but the outcome remains uncertain. Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, a member of the banking committee, has signaled he will block Warsh’s nomination until the Department of Justice concludes its criminal investigation into alleged misconduct surrounding the Fed’s headquarters renovation in Washington, D.C. Tillis described the probe as “reaching the point of absurd,” yet insists the investigation must be resolved before moving forward. The probe appears active: prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the construction site this week, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, underscoring the seriousness of the inquiry. During the same interview, Trump dismissed the investigation’s relevance, claiming the project was “probably corrupt, but what it really is is incompetence,” and questioned whether a $25 million renovation could balloon to a $4 billion expense. Powell responded in January with a rare public rebuke, labeling the investigation a “pretext” aimed at pressuring the Fed to lower rates. He warned that political intimidation could jeopardize the Fed’s ability to set monetary policy based on economic evidence. The legal backdrop adds another layer of uncertainty. The Supreme Court has yet to rule on Trump’s authority to fire a Fed board member without cause—a question that resurfaced after the president’s attempted removal of Fed governor Lisa Cook last summer. Justices appeared skeptical of such unilateral action during oral arguments in January. With the Fed’s independence at stake, the coming weeks will determine whether Trump’s threat translates into action, whether Warsh can secure Senate confirmation, and how the renovation investigation will influence the broader debate over political interference in U.S. monetary policy.

The BBC has confirmed plans to eliminate as many as 2,000 positions, equating to about 10% of its 21,500‑strong workforce. The announcement was made at an all‑staff meeting on Wednesday, marking the broadcaster’s most extensive downsizing since 2011.Interim director general Rhodri Talfan Davies led the briefing and will steer the corporation until Matt Brittin, a former senior Google executive, takes over on 18 May.The job reductions are part of a broader £600 million cost‑cutting plan unveiled in February, which aims to trim 10% of the BBC’s roughly £6 billion annual cost base over the next three years.Outgoing director general Tim Davie departed on 2 April after resigning in November amid controversy over coverage of high‑profile issues such as Donald Trump, Gaza and trans‑rights.Union leader Philippa Childs of Bectu warned that “cuts of this magnitude will be devastating for the workforce and to the BBC as a whole,” adding that recent redundancy rounds have already placed staff under significant pressure.Financial pressures are compounded by a modest licence‑fee increase on 1 April, which rose from £174.50 to £180 per household. Last year the BBC collected £3.8 billion from the licence fee across 23.8 million households, supplemented by £2 billion from commercial activities and grants.However, the number of licence‑fee‑paying households fell by 300,000 year‑on‑year, driven by rising evasion and a shift toward rival streaming platforms such as Netflix and Disney.The corporation is currently negotiating a renewal of its royal charter, which expires at the end of next year, and is seeking to secure a more stable, long‑term funding pathway.Regulator Ofcom has warned that public‑service television in the UK is becoming an “endangered species” in the streaming era, a concern echoed by the BBC’s own strategy to expand its iPlayer service and forge a new content partnership with YouTube.In a recent statement the BBC highlighted that it has already delivered “more than half a billion pounds’ worth of savings” over the past three years, reinvesting much of those efficiencies back into its output to ensure value for money for audiences now and in the future.

The literary world was recently abuzz with the news that critically acclaimed author Helen DeWitt had declined a $175,000 Windham-Campbell prize due to its onerous promotional requirements. The prize, which aims to give recipients the financial freedom to focus on their work, came with obligations that DeWitt found unsustainable, including six to eight hours of filming.This decision has ignited a fierce debate about the pressures of self-promotion in the publishing industry and the challenges faced by authors who are unable to meet these demands due to disability, chronic illness, or other personal circumstances. DeWitt's stance has been praised by some as a principled refusal to play the self-promotion game, while others have criticized her as entitled or spoiled.The Windham-Campbell prize is one of the most prestigious literary awards, recognizing eight writers each year for their life's work. This year's winners include Gwendoline Riley, an author known for her nuanced explorations of family relationships. Riley's win is a testament to the prize's ability to shine a light on talented writers who may have been overlooked.The controversy surrounding DeWitt's decision highlights the precarious nature of a literary career. With average author earnings plummeting and the industry becoming increasingly professionalized, many writers are finding it difficult to make a living from their work. The emphasis on self-promotion can be particularly challenging for authors who are neurodivergent or have disabilities, as it can exacerbate existing difficulties.DeWitt's experience has sparked a wider conversation about the need for greater inclusivity and support in the publishing industry. As one author noted, the art world is ahead of publishing in terms of facilitating access and assistance for artists with disabilities. The industry must adapt to accommodate writers with diverse needs and ensure that opportunities are accessible to all, regardless of their abilities.In a surprising twist, DeWitt has since announced that she has received a $175,000 grant from a conservative university thinktank with no strings attached. This development has raised questions about the role of philanthropy in supporting literary talent and the complexities of author promotion in the modern publishing landscape.

The Brexit debate has taken a significant turn, with Keir Starmer's government now openly acknowledging the need for closer ties with the EU. This shift in approach comes as the UK faces increasing global uncertainty, including Vladimir Putin's territorial aggression, Donald Trump's geopolitical vandalism, and China's emergence as a superpower.In opposition, Starmer had pushed Brexit to the margin of debate. However, in government, he has learned that Europe is central to Britain's interests, whether discussed or not. The avoidance of painful arguments from the past has turned out to be a handicap when making plans for the future.Labour's 2024 general election manifesto had pretended that Brexit was a historical event, something Boris Johnson got 'done' in 2020. However, the relationship with the EU cannot be settled due to its evolving nature and the UK's position as an ex-member on its border.The options are now more Brexit or less, never a steady state. Johnson's Brexit deal was structured to accelerate separation over time, with the theory that divergence from EU rules would give Britain a competitive advantage. However, this Eurosceptic fantasy has been exposed as wrong, with the UK now seeking to put Johnson's divergence ratchet into reverse.Downing Street's acceptance of this logic has been flagged by a gradual change in rhetoric, with the prime minister now listing Brexit as an affliction in the same category as the Covid pandemic. The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, identifies closer integration with Europe as 'the biggest prize' in a dash for growth.To facilitate a more intimate relationship, the government proposes legislation that will give ministers open-ended powers to adopt EU standards for various sectors of the economy. This 'dynamic alignment' is supposed to make it easier for businesses to move goods into the single market and make Britain a more attractive destination for investment.However, the Conservatives and Reform UK are appalled, objecting to the circumvention of future legislative scrutiny by the use of so-called Henry VIII powers. The real grievance is the old ideological one, equating any application of single market rules to colonisation by Brussels.As Starmer tries to go in this direction, he will collide with familiar Brexit obstacles. The European Commission will insist there can be no 'cherrypicking' from the single market; that non-member states wanting to enjoy the benefits of a European club can expect to pay subscription fees into European budgets.Opinion polls routinely show a clear majority of voters think Brexit has gone badly. The logic of pooling resources with continental neighbours can only grow in the light of wildfires started by Trump along the international horizon.Starmer knows these conditions permit a more assertive agenda of EU integration. However, it is hard to take bolder strides within red lines – no free movement; no single market membership; no customs union – drawn when Labour's Europe policy was defined by the preference to change the subject.