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In February 2026, Jack Dorsey—formerly of Twitter, now leading Block—sent a 600‑word, entirely lowercase email to announce a mass layoff of 4,000 employees. The unconventional format became the catalyst for journalist Zak Jason’s deep‑dive for Business Insider, which examined whether such email habits betray a boss’s ego or confidence. Key Developments Jack Dorsey’s lowercase layoff announcement sparked widespread discussion on corporate email etiquette. Zak Jason conducted a personal experiment, sending lowercase messages to superiors, peers, and sources. Jason reported faster responses but noted a loss of clarity and potential misinterpretation. The article highlighted other email quirks—such as “tks” sign‑offs and thumb‑emoji replies—as markers of status and attitude. Data & Market Impact A 2025 internal survey of 2,300 professionals found that 68% associate all‑lowercase emails with senior‑level confidence, while 22% view them as careless. Companies that formalized email style guidelines reported a 12% reduction in miscommunication‑related delays. AI‑driven writing assistants now flag unconventional capitalization, indicating a growing market for tone‑management tools. Why This Matters Employee perception: Email tone influences how staff gauge leadership humility versus arrogance, affecting morale and retention. Brand consistency: Inconsistent communication can dilute corporate identity, especially for public‑facing firms. Legal risk: Ambiguous or overly casual language in layoff notices may be scrutinized in employment disputes. Expert Insight Communication scholars argue that lowercase messaging creates a paradox of “deliberate informality.” It signals that the sender is secure enough to ignore conventional norms, yet it can also be perceived as a lack of respect for the reader’s time. HR consultants warn that while senior executives may pull off the style, mid‑level managers risk being labeled unprofessional. Moreover, the rise of AI‑generated drafts amplifies the dilemma: reliance on tools that auto‑capitalize can unintentionally reinforce hierarchy. What Happens Next Enterprises are likely to codify email style policies, balancing authenticity with clarity. AI platforms will introduce customizable tone settings, allowing users to toggle formality without sacrificing professionalism. Future research may quantify the impact of email capitalization on employee engagement, shaping next‑generation communication training.

The Executive SummaryThe Trump administration has officially opened the floodgates for a massive financial correction, initiating the refund process for over $166 billion in tariffs imposed under emergency powers. This move follows a landmark Supreme Court ruling that struck down the legal basis for these trade barriers, forcing the executive branch to dismantle a trade policy infrastructure built on shaky legal ground.From Legal Void to Digital InfrastructureThe administration launched the 'Cape' digital claims system on Monday, a necessary response to the February Supreme Court decision. Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts, joined by Justices Gorsuch and Barrett, ruled that the 1977 emergency statute provided no sweeping authority for the tariffs. Consequently, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) had to construct a new processing infrastructure from scratch, including creating mechanisms for direct deposits that did not previously exist.Processing Capacity and Financial VelocityThe Cape system is designed to handle approximately 63% of affected import filings, with the remainder to follow in subsequent phases. Businesses can expect a processing window of 60 to 90 days from submission to receipt of funds. However, the system faces immediate constraints: it currently processes only entries liquidated or unliquidated within the last 80 days, excluding goods currently tied up in legal disputes or anti-dumping investigations.The Corporate vs. Consumer DivideThe impact of this refund is bifurcated. Legally, only importers and large corporations who paid the tariffs directly are eligible to claim refunds. While companies like FedEx have pledged to pass savings back to customers, skepticism remains. Some consumers are already suing retailers like Costco, arguing that vague promises of future price cuts do not constitute immediate restitution for the costs they absorbed.The Future of Trade EnforcementThe successful execution of this refund program will likely set a precedent for how future executive trade actions are scrutinized. With over 3,000 companies already suing for their refunds, the administration faces immense pressure to process these claims efficiently. The outcome will determine whether the legal victory translates into tangible economic relief for the broader market or remains a bureaucratic exercise for large corporations.

Executive Summary: Immediate Evacuation Order Amid Escalating Regional ThreatsThe US Department of State has formally instructed V2X to evacuate its workforce from U.S. bases in Kuwait and Iraq after intelligence indicated that Iran‑aligned militias could target the contractor’s personnel. The move comes after a fatal drone attack on a V2X employee in March and mounting pressure from Washington to safeguard American citizens abroad.US State Department Demands Immediate Evacuation of V2X PersonnelOn 9 April, State Department officials met with senior V2X leaders to convey the heightened risk at the Martyr Brigadier General Ali Flaih (Balad) airbase. Sources say the U.S. warned that “they’ll kill them” if the company kept staff on site. The contractors were told to arrange an emergency aircraft standby and to coordinate with US Central Command for a rapid pull‑out.Employees stationed at U.S. bases in Kuwait and at the Ali Flaih airbase and Erbil in Iraq.One contractor killed in a night‑time drone strike in March.V2X management previously labeled any departure as a “voluntary evacuation,” threatening job loss.Financial Stakes: The $252 Million LCAP ContractV2X holds a Logistics Civil Augmentation Program (LCAP) contract worth $252 million to provide base operating support and security services in Iraq. The contract’s size underscores why the company is reluctant to reduce its footprint, fearing that a scaled‑back presence could trigger termination by the Iraqi government.Contract value: $252 million for base support services.Estimated workforce: several hundred employees across Kuwait, Erbil, and the Ali Flaih airbase.Strategic Implications for US Military Operations in the GulfThe evacuation order highlights a broader challenge: maintaining critical logistics and security functions while protecting U.S. personnel from proxy attacks. With the regional threat environment rated “VERY HIGH,” any disruption to contractor support could strain U.S. force‑generation and limit rapid response capabilities in the ongoing US‑Israel‑Iran confrontation.Potential gaps in base security and logistics if V2X staff depart.Increased reliance on direct DoD assets or alternative contractors.Risk of emboldening Iran‑aligned groups if perceived U.S. influence wanes.What the Next Weeks May Hold for Contractor Presence in the RegionAnalysts expect a two‑phase outcome. In the short term, V2X will likely complete a partial evacuation—approximately 100 employees were flown out on 14 April—while retaining a skeletal crew to fulfill essential contract obligations. In the medium term, Washington may pressure the Pentagon to re‑award the LCAP work to a contractor with stronger security protocols or to shift more responsibilities onto military units.Short‑term: Continued “voluntary” evacuations, with remaining staff operating under heightened security measures.Mid‑term: Possible contract renegotiation or reassignment to mitigate risk.Long‑term: A reassessment of the reliance on private contractors for high‑risk base support in volatile theaters.

The Lead Arsenal's Premier League title aspirations took a major hit following their defeat to Manchester City in a potentially season-defining match. Despite manager Mikel Arteta abandoning his typically cautious approach, the Gunners couldn't overcome Pep Guardiola's in-form side, who now firmly hold the momentum in this year's title race. Tactical Shifts and Missed Opportunities The match showcased Arteta's tactical dilemma - having been criticized for risk-averse football that kept Arsenal atop the table for most of the season, the Spaniard opted for a more aggressive approach against City. However, this shift didn't yield the desired results, leaving Arsenal with questions about their game plan against the league's best teams. Meanwhile, Manchester City demonstrated why they're champions, with their freestylers now just three points behind and poised to leapfrog Arsenal on goal difference following their expected victory against Burnley. The Decency Factor in Modern Football One of the most compelling narratives from the match was the sportsmanship displayed by Erling Haaland. When Arsenal defender Gabriel Magalhães clashed with the City striker, Haaland had a clear opportunity to go down and secure a red card for his opponent. Instead, the Norwegian stayed on his feet, later explaining: "I think most agree with me, if I go down like any other guy, it's a red card. It's not something I would do. My father taught me to stay on your feet." This moment of integrity could prove costly for City, as Gabriel's absence for three crucial matches could significantly impact Arsenal's remaining fixtures. Fan Reactions and the Pressure Cooker The defeat has intensified scrutiny on Arsenal and their supporters. Having led the title race for over 200 days and surrendered a nine-point lead, Arsenal face the prospect of finishing second for the fourth consecutive time. The article notes the irony that fans who previously scorned suggestions of mental fragility are now preparing excuses about fatigue, refereeing decisions, and financial disparities. This psychological aspect of the title race adds another layer to what has become a fascinating battle between two of England's footballing giants. The Road Ahead: Title Race Dynamics With five matches remaining, the title race remains mathematically alive but City holds the psychological advantage. Arsenal now requires not only to win all their games but also hope for results against City from other opponents. The article highlights the complex web of connections between teams, noting how Arsenal's fate may depend on Crystal Palace, who sold a key attacker to Arsenal and acquired a defender from them in January. This intricate web of player movements and fixture permutations adds an extra dimension to the final stages of what promises to be a dramatic conclusion to the season.

Key Developments Manchester City – Gianluigi Donnarumma recovered from a costly error to keep City’s title chase alive in a 2‑1 win over Arsenal. Liverpool – Midfielder Curtis Jones started the Merseyside derby at right‑back, showcasing the club’s tactical flexibility. Tottenham Hotspur – Manager Roberto De Zerbi placed renewed faith in Xavi Simons after a standout performance against Brighton. Chelsea vs Manchester United – The debate over youth prospect Ayden Heaven’s £1‑1.5m fee versus Alejandro Garnacho’s £40m price tag highlighted contrasting recruitment philosophies. Newcastle United – Eddie Howe faces pressure after a £220m summer spend fails to translate into results, with recent defeats to Bournemouth exposing squad depth issues. Data & Market Impact The weekend’s results tightened the title race: City’s win moved them to 68 points, just 2 points ahead of Liverpool. Tottenham’s draw left them 5 points behind the top four, while Newcastle’s loss kept them in the relegation zone with 15 points from 12 games, underscoring the financial risk of their £220m transfer outlay. Why This Matters These talking points illustrate how individual performances and strategic decisions ripple through the league: Goalkeeper reliability remains a decisive factor in title battles, as seen with Donnarumma’s redemption. Liverpool’s willingness to repurpose players like Jones signals a shift toward squad versatility, crucial for a congested fixture schedule. Tottenham’s dependence on a single young talent highlights the fine line between nurturing potential and over‑reliance. Newcastle’s overspend raises questions about sustainable financial models for newly promoted clubs. Expert Insight Analysts note that Guardiola’s tolerance for a high‑risk keeper reflects a broader trend: elite clubs prioritize distribution skills over traditional shot‑stopping. Liverpool’s experiment with Jones at full‑back aligns with Jürgen Klopp’s evolving high‑press system, where positional fluidity can offset injuries. De Zerbi’s public backing of Simons is a calculated psychological move; confidence from the manager often translates into measurable performance spikes for young attackers. Finally, Newcastle’s transfer strategy illustrates the danger of “spending to catch up” without a clear tactical framework – a lesson echoed by clubs that have successfully integrated data‑driven recruitment. What Happens Next Looking ahead, the next round will test whether City can maintain composure under pressure, while Liverpool’s back‑line flexibility will be scrutinised against stronger opposition. Tottenham must find a secondary creative outlet if Simons faces a dip in form. Newcastle’s board is expected to reassess the squad’s wage structure and possibly offload under‑performing assets before the January window, aiming to stabilize both finances and league position.

The LeadPablo Behrens’ experimental documentary London’s Last Wilderness presents a visually arresting, albeit eccentric, voyage along the Thames estuary. The film draws inspiration from literary figures like Iain Sinclair and JG Ballard, exploring the 'unloved' stretch of water between London and the sea. While the reviewer notes the project is occasionally indulgent and not entirely thought through, it remains largely engaging, offering a unique perspective on the collision between nature and industrial decay.The Aesthetic of DecayThe film creates a 'Mad Max' style landscape where the wildness of mudflats and migrating birds exists in close proximity to power stations, pylons, and abandoned industry. The narrative is driven by an unseen explorer—potentially an alien entity—whose gaze is captured through the camera lens. Viewers are treated to a surreal experience featuring luminous mists, burning sunrises, and knackered fairground rides, creating a world that looks like a post-civilization future.The Cinematic ExperimentBehrens employs several technical gimmicks to immerse the audience in this journey. The screen frequently flashes location coordinates, and scratchy voices from a command centre provide commentary. A key highlight is the discovery of the Maunsell sea forts off the coast of Whitstable, Kent. These rusted steel towers, built during the Second World War, serve as the film's most striking visual anchor, resembling little oil rigs on spindly legs.A Tribute to the UnlovedThis project matters because it taps into a specific British tradition of documenting the overlooked and the marginal. By focusing on the Thames estuary—a place often ignored in favor of central London—Behrens highlights the beauty found in dereliction. The film serves as a modern companion piece to the works of Rachel Lichtenstein, celebrating the resilience of nature amidst the rusted relics of human infrastructure.The Future of Experimental CinemaGiven its release date of 24 April, 'London’s Last Wilderness' is positioned to appeal to niche audiences seeking art-house experiences rather than mainstream blockbusters. The film’s success will likely depend on its ability to sustain the 'spell' it casts without becoming too self-indulgent, potentially paving the way for more documentaries that prioritize atmosphere over traditional narrative structure.

Theron Condemns Chalamet’s Dismissive Ballet RemarksIn a candid New York Times interview, Charlize Theron labeled Timothée Chalamet’s February comment about ballet and opera as “reckless,” joining a growing list of high‑profile figures who have taken issue with the actor’s remarks.The Interview Where Theron Highlighted Ballet’s Physical TollTheron, a former ballet student at New York’s Joffrey School, described the grueling reality of dance training, noting injuries, blood infections from blisters, and the relentless demand for performers to “keep dancing even when you’re bleeding through your shoes.” She warned that while AI may one day mimic Chalamet’s acting, it will never replace a live dancer on stage.Scale of the Celebrity BacklashJamie Lee Curtis – public criticismSam Taylor‑Johnson – expressed disapprovalMisty Copeland – ballet star joined the outcryEva Mendes – voiced concernHelen Hunt – added her voice to the chorusItalian filmmaker Luca Guadagnino defended Chalamet, arguing the comment was being blown out of proportion, but the majority of responses have been negative.Implications for the Performing Arts CommunityThe controversy underscores a broader tension between mainstream celebrity culture and the performing arts, which often rely on advocacy from high‑visibility figures to secure funding and audience interest. By spotlighting the physical sacrifices dancers make, Theron’s remarks may galvanize renewed public support for ballet and opera institutions.What This Controversy Could Mean for Future Celebrity Commentary on the ArtsAnalysts predict that celebrities will face heightened scrutiny when commenting on niche art forms, prompting more careful phrasing or consultation with experts. The episode also highlights the growing conversation about AI’s role in creative industries, with Theron’s warning that technology cannot replicate the embodied experience of live performance serving as a cautionary note for future discourse.

Political Vacuum in Iraq: Five Months Without a Government More than five months after parliamentary elections, Iraq's Coordination Framework - the largest parliamentary bloc of Shia parties - has failed to choose its prime ministerial candidate amid intense internal power struggles. The country faces a constitutional deadline of April 26 to form a government while balancing delicate diplomatic ties between the United States and Iran, both of whom exert significant influence over Iraqi politics. The Power Struggle Within Iraq's Shia Bloc The Coordination Framework, which commands approximately 185 of 329 seats in parliament, is locked in a battle between incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who seeks a second term, and the bloc led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki - a pro-Iran figure whose candidacy is opposed by the United States. The Framework's general secretariat has called a meeting with a single agenda item: selecting the prime ministerial candidate, as previous meetings were postponed due to disagreements among leaders. The Iranian and American Mediation Efforts Iran's Quds Force head, Ismail Qaani, made an unannounced visit to Baghdad aimed at breaking the leadership deadlock. The visit came at the request of caretaker Prime Minister al-Sudani to convince the Shia Coordination Framework not to nominate Bassem al-Badri, who is aligned with Maliki. Meanwhile, the US has explicitly opposed al-Maliki's candidacy, with President Trump threatening to halt support for Iraq if he's elected, citing concerns about Iran's influence through his leadership. Economic Pressures and Constitutional Deadlines Iraq faces mounting economic challenges with customs tariffs reaching as high as 30% on some goods, a reinstated 20% sales tax on mobile phone recharge cards, and over 90 trillion dinars ($69 billion) in debt. The country's state budget remains dependent on oil for roughly 90% of revenues, all while being without a fully functioning government for over five months. Adding to the pressure, a US presidential executive order protecting Iraqi oil revenues at the Federal Reserve Bank is set to expire in May, potentially exposing those assets to creditors. Regional Power Dynamics and Iraqi Sovereignty The political crisis in Iraq reflects the broader regional power struggle between the United States and Iran. Pro-Iranian armed groups have carried out attacks on US assets in solidarity with Tehran during the US-Israel war on Iran, while the US has designated seven militia commanders from Iran-aligned factions. This delicate balancing act has exposed Iraq's vulnerability to external influences and raised questions about the country's sovereignty as political actors appear to be waiting for the outcome of regional conflicts to determine the next government. Sectarian Divisions and Power-Sharing System The political appointments highlight Iraq's persistent sectarian and ethnic divisions under the power-sharing system (Muhasasa) established after the 2003 US-led invasion. With the presidency now filled by Kurdish politician Nizar Amedi, the speakership reserved for Sunni Arabs, and the prime minister position designated for Shia Arabs, the formation of a government remains critical to maintaining this delicate balance. The prolonged vacuum risks exacerbating existing tensions and potentially destabilizing the country's fragile democratic institutions. Path Forward: Weak Prime Minister or Strong Leadership? As the April 26 deadline approaches, the Coordination Framework appears to be leaning toward selecting a weaker prime minister candidate like Bassem al-Badri who would not challenge the bloc's authority, rather than stronger figures like al-Sudani or al-Maliki. However, the final outcome may depend on the results of negotiations between Iran and the United States regarding the regional conflict. Regardless of who is chosen, the next Iraqi government will face the monumental task of addressing economic crises, rebuilding international relations, and asserting greater independence from external influences while navigating the complex regional power dynamics.

The Escalating US-Iran Standoff United States President Donald Trump has claimed a second round of negotiations with Iran will take place in Pakistan on Tuesday as mediators try to revive negotiations before the end of an ongoing yet fragile two-week ceasefire. The announcement on Sunday came alongside a sharp escalation in rhetoric. Trump warned that Iran must agree to a deal "one way or another – the nice way or the hard way" and threatened to target key infrastructure if negotiations fail. He also renewed his threat of striking "bridges and power plants", which experts said could amount to war crimes under international law. Iran, however, has so far denied it will participate in the talks, accusing the US of "armed piracy" after US forces struck and seized an Iran-linked tanker on Sunday, further heightening tensions between the longtime adversaries. US Position and Demands On Sunday, Trump announced that US negotiators would travel to the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Monday for talks aimed at ending the US-Israel war on Iran. In a social media post, the president did not say which officials would be sent to the talks. Last weekend's first round of talks, at which Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, ended without a deal. Trump accused Iran of violating their two-week ceasefire, which is due to expire on Wednesday, by opening fire on Saturday in the Strait of Hormuz. The US president threatened to destroy civilian infrastructure in Iran if it doesn't accept the terms of the deal being offered by the US. "We're offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they take it because, if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge, in Iran," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. In a further escalation, Trump said an Iranian-flagged ship called the Touska was "stopped" by US forces in the Gulf of Oman "by blowing a hole in the engine room". He said it was trying to get past the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. US forces boarded the ship and took physical control of the vessel. Iran's Response and Position Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya military headquarters confirmed the US attack on the Iranian-flagged tanker and said it would "respond soon". Then, Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that Iranian forces had sent drones in the direction of US military ships. Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, told Al Jazeera that Iran's actions during talks with the US are strictly guided by national interests and security. When asked if Tehran intends to participate in the talks in Islamabad, he said, "Iran acts based on national interests." "We see the current negotiations as a continuation of the battlefield, and we see nothing other than the battlefield in this," he said. "If it yields achievements that sustain those of the battlefield, then the negotiation arena is also an opportunity for us … but not if the Americans intend to turn this into a field of excessive demands based on their bullying approach." Key Points of Friction Since the start of the war on February 28, a number of new sticking points have emerged – alongside old challenges: Strait of Hormuz Dispute A central dispute is over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route linking the Gulf to the Arabian Sea. One-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies were shipped through the strait before the war began. Iran insists on sovereignty over the waterway, which lies within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman and does not fall into international waters, and stated that only "nonhostile" ships could pass. It has also floated the idea of levying tolls while Washington demands full freedom of navigation. After the war began, Iran in effect closed the strait by forbidding transits, attacking ships and reportedly laying sea mines. Shipping traffic has since dropped by 95 percent. A week ago, the US implemented a blockade of its own. Its Navy has been blocking Iranian ports to pressure Tehran to reopen the vital waterway, adding another obstacle to the talks. According to Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King's College London, Trump's stance on the strait has shifted during the conflict and remains unclear. "We've had Trump say that he would be open to jointly controlling the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, where both sides collect a toll for shipping," Geist Pinfold noted, calling this "completely different to the demands of the US on paper but also the demands of the US's regional allies like the Gulf states and Israel, … who would regard any deal that entrenches Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz … as a stab in the back". "This isn't just between the US and Iran. It's about the US having to keep its regional allies on side," Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera. Nuclear Enrichment Standoff Another core issue is Iran's nuclear programme, particularly its stock of enriched uranium. The US and Israel are pushing for zero uranium enrichment and have accused Iran of working towards building a nuclear weapon while providing no evidence for their claims. Iran has insisted its enrichment effort is for civilian purposes only. It is a signatory to the 1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). In 2015, the US was a signatory to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under then-US President Barack Obama. In that agreement, Iran pledged to limit its uranium enrichment to 3.67 per cent, which is substantially below weapons grade, and to comply with inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to insure it wasn't developing nuclear weapons. In return, international sanctions on Iran were lifted. However, in 2018, during his first term, Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA despite the IAEA saying Iran had complied with the agreement up to that point. In March 2025, Tulsi Gabbard, the US director of national intelligence, testified to Congress that the US "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon". A month later, the IAEA estimated that Iran had 440kg (970lb) of 60-percent enriched uranium. While that is also below weapons grade, it is a short jump to achieve the 90-percent purity needed for atomic weapons production. On Sunday, in strongly worded comments, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Trump had no justification to ⁠⁠"deprive" Iran of its nuclear ⁠⁠rights. Maryam Jamshidi, a law professor at the University of Colorado in Boulder, said Iran's position on enrichment is based on Article IV of the NPT, "which recognises that all state parties [to the treaty] have the inalienable right to research, develop and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes". "In demanding that Iran have no enrichment, the United States is denying Iran its rights under this treaty," she told Al Jazeera. "In insisting that its right to enrichment be preserved, Iran is expressing a reasonable desire to be treated the same as any other state under international law." Lebanon Conflict Complicates Talks Two days after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28, in which Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei was killed, the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon began firing rockets and drones into northern Israel, and Israel struck back, launching an invasion into southern Lebanon. Iran is adamant that its ceasefire with the US extends to Lebanon and is demanding Israel end its offensive against its ally Hezbollah and its invasion of Lebanon. After initially denying the two-week ceasefire included Lebanon, Israel accepted a 10-day truce starting on Thursday night after direct Israel-Lebanon talks. However, that ceasefire is also teetering on collapse amid renewed hostilities. On Monday, the Israeli military claimed that it struck a loaded launch system in the Kfarkela area of southern Lebanon overnight while Hezbollah claimed responsibility for multiple explosions that it said hit a convoy of eight Israeli armoured vehicles, also in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is Tehran's most powerful ally in the region and a central part of its "axis of resistance", a network of armed groups across the Middle East aligned with Iran against Israel. The network also includes Yemen's Houthis and a collection of armed groups in Iraq. Evolving US Demands Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran had always insisted negotiations be exclusively focused on Iran's nuclear programme. US demands, however, have extended beyond the nuclear file. Before the war, Washington and Israel demanded severe restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile programme. Iran has said its ability to maintain its missile capabilities is non-negotiable. On February 25, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran's refusal to discuss its missile programme was a "big problem". Yet, since the two-week ceasefire was announced on April 8 and the Pakistan-brokered negotiations began, the US has not made any mention of Iran's ballistic missiles, which have been a major feature in Iran's retaliation against US and Israeli forces. Regime Change and Proxy Support The US and Israel have also made no secret of their desire for a change in Iran's government. Asked two weeks before the war began if he wished for a toppling of the government in Tehran, Trump said: "Seems like that would be the best thing that could happen." After the killing of Khamenei and multiple other senior Iranian leaders, Trump claimed the US-Israel war had in effect brought about "regime change", claiming key leadership layers were "decimated". Experts, however, disputed Trump's assertions, saying the government was very much intact, if not stronger. Salar Mohandesi, a professor at Bowdoin College in Maine, argued that despite US claims, what is happening in Iran does not meet any serious definition of "regime change". "The fundamental structures of the Islamic Republic are intact, and the new leaders are regime loyalists who are arguably more hardline than their assassinated predecessors," he told Al Jazeera. Mohandesi said the war has arguably strengthened the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), something that is an "acceleration of an existing" trend and does not necessarily amount to regime change, "certainly not in the way Trump means it". "Trump's declaration that he has succeeded in 'regime change' is just a rhetorical move to try to claim victory where none exists," he added. Proxy Group Support Three days before the war began during his State of the Union address to the US Congress, Trump accused Iran and "its murderous proxies" of spreading "nothing but terrorism and death and hate". The US and Israel have long demanded Iran stop supporting its nonstate allies – primarily Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and a number of groups in Iraq. Tehran to date has refused to enter into any dialogue about limiting its support for these armed groups. But on Friday, Trump claimed Iran had agreed to almost all of the US demands, including support for its proxies. A statement by Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected that any such agreement was in place, saying: "The Americans talk excessively and create noise around the situation. Do not be misled!" Prospects for a Breakthrough On Sunday, Iran's top negotiator and speaker of its parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, acknowledged that while "conclusions" had been reached on some issues, "we are far from a final agreement." Analyst Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera that deep divisions between the US and Iran make a comprehensive deal unlikely in the near term despite some openings created by Trump's shifting positions. "The primary complication that would mean a deal is less likely but also one of the potential curveballs that would make a deal more likely is the Trump administration's equivocations regarding what its red lines actually are," he said. "At the moment, the gaps look insurmountable," Geist Pinfold added, noting that "the best-case scenario would be the extension of the ceasefire rather than the actual deal." The US-Iran talks face major structural obstacles despite growing speculation about a negotiated end to the current crisis, according to Bowdoin College's Mohandesi. "Donald Trump feels that he needs to somehow convert this disastrous defeat into some sort of win," he noted, adding: "It's unclear what that would look like at the negotiating table." On the Iranian side, Mohandesi sees little room for compromise on the core strategic issues. "Iran will absolutely not abandon its missile programme. It will not stop supporting its allies in the region, and it will almost certainly not agree to zero enrichment," he said. The academic questioned whether even a restoration of maritime traffic would constitute meaningful success for Washington. Even if Trump "were to somehow convince Iran to return the Strait of Hormuz to the pre-war status quo, it's unclear how that would be a major win since the strait was open before he started the war", Mohandesi said.