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Oil and gas markets rallied on Thursday as investors grappled with the shaky outlook for the two‑week Iran‑Israel ceasefire. Brent crude rose more than 2% to $96.77 a barrel, while New York light crude climbed nearly 3% to $97.23, still shy of the $100 threshold that many traders watch. The previous session had seen Brent plunge 13.29% to a four‑week low of $94.75. In the gas sector, the UK month‑ahead contract rebounded 1% to 115.35p per therm after a 15% drop the day before. European natural‑gas futures also recovered, edging toward €46/MWh from a five‑week trough of €45.30. The price uptick reflects growing scepticism about the durability of the ceasefire announced a day earlier by the United States and Iran, which included a pledge to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. UAE and Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian drones, and Iran’s parliamentary speaker accused the United States and Israel of breaching several agreement points. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned of a “regret‑inducing response” if Israeli strikes on Lebanon continue. The latest Israeli barrage killed at least 254 people and wounded 837, prompting the Fars news agency to note that oil‑tanker traffic through the strait had been halted. Former President Donald Trump used his Truth Social platform to threaten that U.S. forces would remain in the region until a “real agreement” is fully honoured, warning that any non‑compliance would trigger “stronger than anyone has ever seen before” military action. Asian equity markets reacted negatively: Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.7%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged down 0.4%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 dipped 0.1%, Germany’s DAX fell 0.6%, France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.3%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB slipped 0.2%. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 trimmed 0.1% after a near‑4% rally the day before, while U.S. futures pointed to a lower opening on Wall Street. Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid noted that market stress has eased compared with 24 hours earlier, as the ceasefire news generated renewed optimism and reduced fears of a stagflationary shock. On the diplomatic front, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that Vice‑President JD Vance will lead a delegation to Islamabad, with initial talks slated for Saturday morning. Jefferies chief European economist Mohit Kumar argued that, despite its fragility, the truce is likely to hold because of the “mutually assured destruction” calculus. He added that both sides now see a ceasefire as the lesser‑evil, given the escalating costs of continued conflict and the strategic challenges of securing cheap drone interceptors and a reliable Hormuz passage.

Hours after Iran and the United States announced a two-week ceasefire, several Gulf nations have reported missile and drone attacks on their territories. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) said its air defences were actively engaging incoming missiles and drones from Iran.The UAE’s Defence Ministry stated that the sounds of explosions heard across the country were caused by air defence systems intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles. Kuwait also reported intercepting a wave of Iranian drones launched since 8am (05:00 GMT), with some targeting vital oil facilities, power stations, and water desalination plants, causing serious infrastructure damage.Kuwait’s Defence Ministry said it dealt with a total of 28 drones, while Bahrain’s Ministry of Interior reported alleged Iranian attacks that injured two people and damaged several houses. Explosions were heard in Bahrain’s capital, Manama, with smoke rising from an area on Sitra Island that hosts Bahrain’s principal energy facilities.Iran has not responded to the claims by the Gulf nations. Meanwhile, Iranian state television reported that an oil refinery on the country’s Lavan Island came under attack, with firefighters working to contain the blaze. The US-Iran ceasefire was agreed upon barely an hour before US President Donald Trump’s deadline to obliterate Iran was set to expire.Gulf countries have faced repeated drone and missile barrages from Iran over recent weeks in response to the US and Israeli strikes that began on February 28. Iran targeted fossil fuel infrastructure in the oil-rich Gulf nations while effectively closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz to shipping, through which one-fifth of global oil usually passes.

Iran and the United States announced a two‑week ceasefire that will also guarantee safe navigation through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves.The pause comes as the conflict entered its 40th day, with hopes now fixed on a diplomatic breakthrough during talks scheduled to begin in Pakistan on Friday.President Donald Trump declared that the truce would be activated once Tehran fully reopened the waterway, linking the cessation of hostilities to the restoration of a critical global supply route.Celebrations erupted across Iran, and numerous world leaders publicly welcomed the development, describing it as a step toward broader regional stability.The fighting, which has drawn in virtually the entire Middle East, saw Iran claim to target U.S. assets in several Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, while Gulf nations accused Tehran of striking civilian infrastructure.Hezbollah’s March 2 attacks on Israel pulled Lebanon into the war, and although Israel has signaled support for the ceasefire, it warned that the agreement does not extend to Lebanon.Against this backdrop, Gulf and neighboring states have issued statements outlining their positions on the ceasefire:Saudi Arabia welcomed the truce, urging an immediate end to regional attacks and calling for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, emphasizing that the ceasefire should lead to a “comprehensive sustainable pacification.”Qatar described the ceasefire as an “initial step toward de‑escalation,” stressing the need for rapid implementation, full adherence by Iran, and the protection of maritime security and international trade under international law.United Arab Emirates diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash hailed the outcome as a victory for a war the UAE sought to avoid, claiming the nation now possesses greater leverage and capacity to shape regional affairs.Oman expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s mediation and called for intensified efforts to address the root causes of the conflict, aiming for a permanent end to hostilities.Iraq welcomed the ceasefire but urged the United States and Iran to launch “serious and sustainable dialogue” that tackles underlying disputes and rebuilds mutual trust.Egypt framed the truce as a crucial opportunity for negotiations, diplomacy, and dialogue, insisting that any lasting peace must respect freedom of navigation and consider the legitimate security concerns of Gulf states.Turkey supported the ceasefire and pledged backing for the upcoming Islamabad talks, emphasizing the importance of full ground‑level implementation and strict adherence by all parties.Sudan called the two‑week pause a “positive step toward de‑escalation,” highlighting its potential to foster diplomacy and regional stability.

Iran has warned that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could become new targets if the United States proceeds with attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure, according to a statement cited by the Tasnim news agency. The warning came late on Tuesday, as U.S. President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 00:00 GMT (3:30 a.m. Tehran time) on Wednesday, threatening to "destroy a whole civilisation" if the demand is not met. Closing the strategic waterway would further destabilise the global oil market, already rattled by the ongoing blockade of Gulf oil exports. In response, Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref affirmed the country’s readiness for any scenario, stating on X that national security and infrastructure sustainability have been meticulously calculated and that “no threat is beyond our preparedness and intelligence.” Meanwhile, U.S. forces intensified strikes on Iranian targets, hitting railway and road bridges, an airport, a petrochemical plant, and the Kharg Island oil export terminal. Gulf states on high alert Regional authorities have taken precautionary measures: Bahrain’s Khalifa Bin Salman Port announced a temporary suspension of operations from early April 8, and the U.S. State Department issued a shelter‑in‑place order for American citizens in Bahrain, alongside travel advisories for the Hajj pilgrimage and for Riyadh. Kuwait’s Ministry of Interior imposed a curfew from 12 a.m. to 6 a.m. (GMT 21:00–03:00) as a precaution, while the King Fahd Causeway linking Saudi Arabia and Bahrain was closed twice on Tuesday due to alerts in Saudi Arabia’s eastern region. Israel warned its citizens of a likely surge in attacks as the deadline approaches, citing the Karish and Tanin offshore gas fields as potential targets. Explosions and rocket fire were reported across the region, including near a U.S. diplomatic facility in Baghdad, in the Iraqi capital, and over Bahrain and the UAE. The UAE’s Ministry of Defence confirmed that its air defences are currently engaging missile and drone attacks from Iran, and Qatar’s Ministry of Defence reported intercepting a missile aimed at its territory. These developments underscore a rapidly escalating security environment in the Middle East, with the potential to impact global energy supplies and international trade.

A recent investigation by The Sentry has uncovered that Libyan businessman Ahmed Gadalla facilitated hundreds of millions of dollars in loans to support Khalifa Haftar's failed 2019-2020 assault on Tripoli. The report alleges that Gadalla, a key enabler for Haftar family members, secured $300m in loans from a minor bank based in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE), ahead of the offensive. The months-long campaign by forces loyal to Haftar to seize the Libyan capital from the United Nations-recognised government resulted in hundreds of deaths and displaced hundreds of thousands of people. The cost of the campaign was significant, with an estimated $700 million effort mobilised upfront. The investigation suggests that the money likely helped finance operations, including payments to Russia's mercenary Wagner Group, which supported Haftar's offensive. After Haftar's offensive collapsed, the loans remained largely unpaid, leaving the Libyan public to bear the financial burden. Gadalla has faced no accountability, and the report warns that he has since expanded his influence across eastern Libya's financial system, exerting control over key banks and facilitating large-scale letter-of-credit fraud and laundering illicit profits. The Sentry's report also links Gadalla to efforts to procure and transfer military equipment to Sudan, in violation of a UN arms embargo. The group has called on Western governments to impose targeted sanctions on Gadalla and his network, warning that without concerted international action, Libya faces the continued erosion of its economic foundations.

Israel’s armed forces posted a stark warning on X, urging Iranians to refrain from using trains or approaching railway lines until 21:00 Iran time (17:30 GMT). The message, issued on the military’s Persian‑language account, framed the advisory as a safety measure, hinting at imminent strikes on civilian rail infrastructure before U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz lapses. Trump has publicly threatened to bomb Iran’s bridges and power plants if the strategic waterway remains closed, setting a deadline of Tuesday 8 p.m. EST (01:00 GMT Wednesday). In response, Tehran has pledged “devastating” retaliation against any attacks on its civilian targets. Recent Israeli air operations have intensified. New strikes hit Tehran’s residential districts and a nearby synagogue, and a petrochemical facility on Iran’s side of the South Pars gasfield—shared with Qatar—was also targeted. According to Iran’s Ministry of Health, the conflict, which began on 28 February, has claimed at least 2,076 Iranian lives over more than five weeks. Amid the escalating rhetoric, the King Fahd Causeway linking Saudi Arabia and Bahrain was suspended as a precaution against potential Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province. The 25 km (16 mi) bridge is the sole road link for Bahrain, which hosts the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet. Gulf states report heightened alert levels: alarms sounded in Bahrain and the UAE, and the Saudi Ministry of Defense said it intercepted seven ballistic missiles in its eastern sector. Al Jazeera’s correspondent noted that the Gulf region has borne the brunt of the conflict. On the diplomatic front, the UN Security Council is slated to vote on a watered‑down resolution aimed at unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. The draft, seen by AFP, omits any language authorising force, but Russia and China retain the power to veto. Iran’s blockade has already rattled global energy markets, driving oil and gas prices to record highs and forcing nations to adopt austerity measures. Analysts such as Trita Parsi, vice‑president of the Quincy Institute, argue that President Trump retains the flexibility to extend the deadline without losing credibility, given his historically limited diplomatic leverage. As the deadline looms, the convergence of military warnings, infrastructure closures, and diplomatic maneuvering highlights the fragile balance between coercive pressure and the risk of broader regional escalation.

Karim Baksh of Dasht, a remote Balochistan village, once relied on a diesel‑powered pump to irrigate his watermelon fields. After the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war drove diesel prices sky‑high, he could no longer afford the fuel, forcing him to cut back his cultivated area. In 2023 he took a gamble: borrowing 300,000 Pakistani rupees (≈ $1,075) from relatives and installing a modest row of solar panels. Three years later, the panels run his pump without diesel, letting him water his crops even as global oil markets tumble amid the US‑Israel war on Iran and the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of world oil and gas normally flows. Baksh’s experience reflects a broader national shift. Pakistan imports about 80% of its oil via the Hormuz chokepoint and sources 99% of its LNG from Qatar and the UAE. A Council on Foreign Relations report warns that a prolonged closure could trigger severe power shortages, factory shutdowns, and transport disruptions. Yet a quiet solar revolution is building resilience. Since 2018, rooftop solar installations have saved Pakistan over $12 billion in fuel imports, and at current prices the sector is projected to save another $6.3 billion this year alone. According to the independent think‑tank EMBER, solar’s share of the national energy mix surged from 2.9% in 2020 to 32.3% in 2025. This growth is not the result of a single government plan but of millions of individual decisions—farmers swapping diesel pumps, businesses installing panels, and households seeking reliable electricity. In urban centres such as Lahore and Karachi, solar rooftops are commonplace. Homeowners typically recoup installation costs within a few years, enjoy free electricity thereafter, and can even sell surplus power back to the grid through net‑metering. By 2025, 25% of Pakistani households use solar in some form, up from 15% in 2023, with over 280,000 consumers now participating in net‑metering schemes. However, the benefits are uneven. The upfront cost of a 3 kW system—about 450,000 rupees ($1,610)—and larger commercial setups costing up to 2.2 million rupees ($7,874) remain out of reach for many low‑income families. Analysts warn that non‑solar users, largely poorer households, are subsidising the grid usage of solar owners. Net‑metering has already shifted an estimated 159 billion rupees (≈ $570 million) of costs onto other consumers, raising concerns about a two‑tier energy system. The rapid expansion is powered largely by imports from China, which controls roughly 80% of the global solar supply chain. Chinese lithium‑ion batteries, now 20% cheaper than in 2024, enable storage for nighttime use, further reducing reliance on the national grid. Solar panel prices have plummeted: from 100‑120 rupees per watt in the early 2010s to about 30 rupees per watt today. This price collapse, combined with electricity shortages and rising tariffs after the 2022 oil price spike, made solar an attractive alternative for those able to invest. Government policy has been mixed. A 2015 net‑metering scheme encouraged adoption by offering roughly 25 rupees ($0.090) per kilowatt‑hour for exported power and by reducing import taxes on panels. More recently, concerns over the financial strain on the power sector led to a cut in the buy‑back rate to about 10 rupees ($0.036) per kilowatt‑hour. For Baksh, the policy shifts matter little. His solar‑powered pump guarantees water for his watermelons regardless of diesel price swings or geopolitical turmoil. He plans to expand his solar array, increase production, and ship his harvest to larger markets in Quetta and Karachi. In a region where temperatures can soar to 51 °C (124 °F), the sun has become a reliable ally—ensuring that, for farmers like Baksh, “the water keeps flowing no matter what.”

Amid growing international focus on the Iran‑Israel conflict, Israel is pressing ahead with a systematic annexation of the West Bank, centred on the contentious E1 settlement project. The plan envisions the construction of 3,400 new homes on Palestinian land, a move designed to split the territory and undermine the viability of a future Palestinian state. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has publicly condemned the annexation drive, labeling the E1 scheme illegal. Although the war in Iran and Israel’s military actions in southern Lebanon have delayed the release of construction tenders, officials confirm that the tenders will be issued on 1 June. Criticism from the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy has so far failed to deter the Israeli government, which appears accustomed to rhetorical rebukes without concrete repercussions. As former EU officials note, the Union has yet to leverage its economic and diplomatic weight to stop the settlement expansion. The British Prime Minister has reaffirmed the stance of the International Court of Justice, declaring the 1967 occupation of Gaza, East Jerusalem and the West Bank unlawful. This follows the United Kingdom’s formal recognition of the State of Palestine last year, alongside France, Canada and Australia. Given its historic ties and recent diplomatic recognitions, the UK is uniquely positioned to galvanise European and Commonwealth partners. Experts propose a three‑pronged approach: first, issue a clear warning that any contractor involved in designing, building or financing the E1 settlement jeopardises its commercial interests with the UK; second, impose a comprehensive ban on UK trade in goods, services and investment linked to the settlements; and third, suspend the trade concessions granted under the UK‑Israel trade and partnership agreement for breaching its human‑rights provisions. New Prime Minister Keir Starmer is urged to embed these measures within a broader strategy to strengthen European cooperation, champion equal rights, and secure mutual security for Israelis and Palestinians. Without enforceable consequences, the illegal settlement programme is likely to expand, heightening the risk of further violence. Vincent Fean – former consul‑general in JerusalemDavid Hannay – former UN ambassadorAnn Grant – former high commissioner to South AfricaEmyr Jones Parry – former UN ambassadorDavid Manning – former US ambassadorDavid Richmond – former FCO director generalPeter Westmacott – former US ambassadorJeremy Greenstock – former UN ambassadorFrances Guy – former Lebanon ambassadorPeter Millett – former Jordan ambassadorDerek Plumbly – former Egypt ambassadorEdward Clay – former Kenya high commissionerTony Brenton – former Russia ambassadorWilliam Patey – former Afghanistan ambassadorColin Budd – former Netherlands ambassadorAnthony Cary – former Canada high commissionerAlan Charlton – former Brazil ambassadorEdward Chaplin – former Iraq and Jordan ambassadorPeter Collecott – former Brazil ambassadorRichard Dalton – former Iran ambassadorMichael Hone – former Iceland ambassadorNicholas Hopton – former Iran ambassadorPeter Jenkins – former UN (Vienna) ambassadorRupert Joy – former EU ambassador to MoroccoRobin Kealy – former Tunisia ambassadorRobin Lamb – former Bahrain ambassadorAnthony Layden – former Morocco ambassadorRichard Makepeace – former UAE ambassadorMark Matthews – former Chad ambassadorRichard Northern – former Libya ambassadorChristopher Segar – former Iraq ambassadorAdrian Sindall – former Syria ambassador

Tadej Pogacar, the winner of the Tour of Flanders for a record-equalling third time, is among the riders under investigation for allegedly running a red light at a railway crossing during the race on Sunday. The incident occurred when Pogacar, along with a group of riders, proceeded through the crossing without stopping, while most of the peloton behind them had to halt before the railway. Belgian officials have confirmed that an investigation is underway into the riders who allegedly ran the red light. Although no further details were provided immediately, local media reports suggest that the riders could face fines ranging from €320 to €4,000 (£279 to £3487) and a driving ban of eight days if found guilty. Pogacar, who rides for UAE Team Emirates-XRG, explained after the race that the signal to stop came too late for them. He described the situation, saying, “Suddenly three guys jump on the middle of the road and start waving to stop. How can you stop in one second? I think they could prevent this by stopping us before, no? Not 10 metres before the crossing. I was thinking: ‘Maybe it’s like some protesters or something crazy is going on.’” The Belgian newspaper Het Laatste Nieuws reported that the East Flanders public prosecutor’s office intends to prosecute the riders. Riders could face significant penalties, including fines and a driving ban, if convicted. Race officials ordered the riders who went through the red light to slow down so the rest of the peloton could catch up. The Tour of Flanders, also known as De Ronde (the Tour), is one of cycling’s most challenging one-day races and a “monument” of the sport. This year’s 278km route featured 16 short but punishing climbs and several cobblestone sections. Pogacar’s victory was notable, but the incident has overshadowed his achievement.