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President Donald Trump declared that the war with Iran is "very close to over," even as Washington maintains a naval blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz. In Washington, D.C., Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors convened for uncommon direct talks, seeking a cease‑fire while Israel pressed for Hezbollah’s disarmament. Trump also hinted at a possible second round of negotiations with Tehran, suggesting talks could resume in Pakistan within days. The United States, however, is set to let a temporary sanctions waiver on stranded Iranian oil expire, tightening economic pressure on Tehran. The International Committee of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies delivered its first shipment of medical supplies and humanitarian aid into Iran since hostilities began, offering a modest lifeline to civilians. Inside Tehran, minor explosions caused limited damage and injuries, underscoring ongoing instability. Iran estimates its war‑related losses at $270 billion and plans to seek reparations. On the diplomatic front, the United Nations' IAEA chief Rafael Grossi noted that the duration of any uranium‑enrichment moratorium would be a political decision, reflecting the delicate balance of future negotiations. In the United States, the Senate is poised to vote as early as Wednesday on a Democratic initiative to restrict the president’s war powers, signaling growing congressional scrutiny of the conflict. Former defence official David Sedney warned that the Hormuz blockade is backfiring, increasing pressure on Washington as global trade routes are disrupted and domestic support wanes. Meanwhile, CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper affirmed that the blockade of Iranian ports is fully operational and that U.S. forces retain maritime superiority in the region. President Trump publicly rebuked Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni for not joining U.S. actions against Iran, describing her stance as lacking courage. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that American forces will intercept Chinese tankers carrying Iranian oil through the Hormuz Strait, effectively cutting off Iran’s oil exports while allowing non‑Iranian cargo to pass. Israel has proposed a long‑term troop presence extending up to 8 km into southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is dismantled, and continues air strikes aimed at encircling the strategic town of Bint Jbeil. Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman highlighted a growing divergence between U.S. and Israeli priorities, noting Israel’s heightened concern over Iran’s ballistic‑missile program. In Lebanon, Israeli raids have resulted in multiple civilian casualties, with reports of villages being razed in a manner likened to Gaza. Hezbollah has rejected the ongoing Israel‑Lebanon talks, while public opinion remains split between hopes for peace and opposition to negotiations. The International Monetary Fund warned that any further escalation could push the global economy toward recession. It cut its 2026 growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa to 1.1 % from 3.9 %, citing disruptions to Gulf oil and gas exports. On the markets, stock indices rose while oil prices slipped, reflecting renewed optimism for a diplomatic resolution and the reopening of the Hormuz Strait.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest World Economic Outlook, warning of a significantly darkened global economic outlook. The report cites the outbreak of war in the Middle East on February 28, 2026, as a major factor in the deteriorating outlook.The IMF's January report was titled “Steady amid Divergent Forces”; whereas the latest outlook is headlined “Global Economy in the Shadow of War”. The IMF now expects the global economy to slow compared to its previous forecast in January.The latest outlook notes that the global outlook has abruptly darkened following the outbreak of war. Far be it for the IMF to gloat, but its suggestion in January that “steady” was not a word to describe the global economy unless you were desperately trying to make the madness of Donald Trump seem normal has aged quite well.The IMF remains unwilling to name Donald Trump, while noting the lingering effects of the persistent rise in energy prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, it only talks about the Middle East conflict as though it sprang out of nowhere.The IMF warns of three possible scenarios: a bad scenario where Trump, Israel and Iran come to an agreement; an adverse scenario where things carry on for the rest of the year and oil stays around US$100 per barrel; and a severe scenario where nothing is resolved, oil prices reach $125 in 2027, gas prices increase by 200% over the same period, and food prices increase by 5% in 2026 and 10% in 2027.Even under the current bad scenario, the global economy is expected to slow compared to what the IMF forecast in January. But under the adverse and severe scenarios the global economy grows by just 2.0% this year and 2.2% next year.For context, over the past 40 years, the global economy has grown slower than 2.2% only three times – 1992 (global recession), 2009 (the GFC) and 2020 (Covid).The IMF has downgraded Australia’s growth by more than most. Even under the most optimistic scenario growth is 0.5% worse than was forecast last October – a bigger downgrade than all G7 nations.The IMF warns against governments doing popular things like energy caps or subsidies, designed to protect households and firms. It worries that such policies will increase inflation because we’ll all suddenly have so much more money to spend.Gas companies exporting LNG from Australia will be cheering on the war as it keeps gas prices – and their profits – ever higher. The senate is investigating changing the way gas is taxed. An ACTU proposal for a 25% tax on exports would raise roughly $17bn a year.

Senator Bernie Sanders, a proud Jewish American, has spoken out against the inhumane actions of Israel and its leader, Benjamin Netanyahu. He emphasizes that criticizing Israel's actions is not antisemitic, but rather a necessary stance against violations of international law.Sanders highlights the devastating impact of Israel's actions in Gaza, where over 72,000 Palestinians have been killed and over 170,000 wounded, mostly women, children, and the elderly. He also notes the destruction of almost all of Gaza's infrastructure, including water and sewer systems, and the demolition of every university and hundreds of schools.In the West Bank, Israeli soldiers and settlers have killed 1,071 Palestinians, including 233 children, and demolished over 6,000 Palestinian homes. Sanders argues that these actions are not just extremist settler behavior, but government policy, with Netanyahu's security cabinet approving sweeping changes to the West Bank's legal status.Sanders announces that he will force a Senate vote on two Joint Resolutions of Disapproval to block arms sales to Israel, including $151.8m in 1,000-pound bombs and $295m in bulldozers used for demolishing homes. He hopes his colleagues will join him in supporting these resolutions, citing plummeting support for Israel among Americans, especially young people.

President Donald Trump announced on Fox Business that he will dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if the central‑bank chief does not vacate the post by the statutory end of his term on May 15. “I’ll have to fire him, OK, if he’s not leaving on time,” Trump said, adding that he had previously held back the decision to avoid controversy. Powell, who has just over a month left in his tenure, has repeatedly been criticized by Trump for what the president calls a “bad job” and for refusing to lower interest rates despite Trump’s repeated demands since his return to the White House in January 2025. In January, Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Powell. Warsh, known for his criticism of the Fed’s relatively high rates, is expected to align more closely with Trump’s push for rate cuts. His confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee is slated for April 21, but the outcome remains uncertain. Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, a member of the banking committee, has signaled he will block Warsh’s nomination until the Department of Justice concludes its criminal investigation into alleged misconduct surrounding the Fed’s headquarters renovation in Washington, D.C. Tillis described the probe as “reaching the point of absurd,” yet insists the investigation must be resolved before moving forward. The probe appears active: prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the construction site this week, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, underscoring the seriousness of the inquiry. During the same interview, Trump dismissed the investigation’s relevance, claiming the project was “probably corrupt, but what it really is is incompetence,” and questioned whether a $25 million renovation could balloon to a $4 billion expense. Powell responded in January with a rare public rebuke, labeling the investigation a “pretext” aimed at pressuring the Fed to lower rates. He warned that political intimidation could jeopardize the Fed’s ability to set monetary policy based on economic evidence. The legal backdrop adds another layer of uncertainty. The Supreme Court has yet to rule on Trump’s authority to fire a Fed board member without cause—a question that resurfaced after the president’s attempted removal of Fed governor Lisa Cook last summer. Justices appeared skeptical of such unilateral action during oral arguments in January. With the Fed’s independence at stake, the coming weeks will determine whether Trump’s threat translates into action, whether Warsh can secure Senate confirmation, and how the renovation investigation will influence the broader debate over political interference in U.S. monetary policy.

Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sharply criticized President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for the Federal Reserve to slash borrowing costs, likening the approach to the fiscal tactics of a “banana republic.”Trump has publicly urged the central bank to deliver the lowest interest rate in the world, arguing that cheaper financing would ease the service burden on the United States’ staggering $39 trillion debt.Speaking at an HSBC investor summit in Hong Kong, Yellen asked, “How often does the president of a developed country demand that interest rates be set to reduce debt‑service costs? This is what you hear in a banana republic.” She warned that such political meddling could unleash inflation if the Fed’s independence is compromised.The Fed, under Chair Jerome Powell, last lowered its policy rate in December to a range of 3.5 %–3.75 %. However, policymakers are growing uneasy about inflationary pressures, especially as the ongoing Iran conflict threatens oil supplies.Powell is slated to step down next month, but his successor—Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh—has yet to secure Senate confirmation. Powell has indicated he will remain in his role if a replacement is not confirmed, and he may continue as a Fed governor until a pending Department of Justice investigation concludes.Trump has openly dismissed the idea of Powell staying on, telling Fox Business that he would “have to fire him” if the chair does not leave. Powell, for his part, describes the DOJ probe as a “pretext” aimed at pressuring the Fed to cut rates.Warsh, who argues that potential productivity gains from artificial intelligence could justify lower rates, faces skepticism from Yellen, who doubts he commands the same respect as former Fed chair Alan Greenspan. She noted, “Greenspan was widely respected for his expertise; I don’t think Warsh walks in with that level of credibility.”Trump’s broader effort to reshape the Fed board includes an attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook, who is currently facing a Supreme Court case over alleged mortgage fraud.Meanwhile, finance ministers and central bankers have gathered in Washington for the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that rising oil prices, driven by the Iran conflict, constitute a “major supply shock” that central banks must assess carefully.The IMF has cautioned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global recession, underscoring the interconnected risks of geopolitical tensions, sovereign debt, and monetary policy decisions.

Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor nominated by President Donald Trump to replace Jerome Powell, has filed ethics disclosures showing personal assets well above $100 million. If confirmed, he would become the wealthiest central‑bank leader in U.S. history. The 69‑page filing, released on Tuesday, lists two private‑fund investments each valued at over $50 million in the Juggernaut Fund LP, plus $10.2 million in consulting fees from the investment office of Wall Street titan Stanley Druckenmiller. Many holdings are described only in broad categories because “pre‑existing confidentiality agreements” prevent full disclosure; Warsh has pledged to divest these assets should his nomination be approved. Federal Reserve ethics rules, tightened in 2022, prohibit officials and their families from owning bank stocks, crypto‑related assets, and impose strict limits on buying and selling securities. The Fed’s own standards, set by the Federal Open Market Committee, are stricter than those governing other federal employees. Beyond the large private‑fund stakes, Warsh’s disclosures reveal a portfolio concentrated in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency. Notable entries include the robotic‑coffee‑bar platform Cafe X, wearable‑tech firm Cionic, an Ethereum layer‑two project dubbed “Blast,” and a reversible male‑contraceptive solution called Contraline. Details for many of these positions are omitted, again citing confidentiality. The filing also enumerates assets held by Warsh’s spouse, Jane Lauder—a member of the Estee Lauder family with an estimated net worth of $1.9 billion. Her holdings feature municipal bonds listed simply as “over $1 million.” Liabilities appear modest in comparison: a 2015 mortgage of up to $5 million with JPMorgan Chase at a 2.75% rate, a revolving credit line of up to $5 million from PNC Bank at roughly 6%, and a $1.95 million capital commitment to THSDFS LLC, an interest Warsh has also pledged to divest. Ethics analyst Heather Jones of the Office of Government Ethics confirmed that Warsh’s divestiture promises would bring him into compliance with the Ethics in Government Act. Nonetheless, the breadth of undisclosed holdings is likely to dominate his upcoming confirmation hearing, scheduled for April 21. Political dynamics add further uncertainty. A key Republican senator has signaled intent to block Warsh’s confirmation until a Department of Justice investigation into Powell’s oversight of Fed‑headquarters renovations concludes. Although a federal judge recently dismissed two subpoenas targeting Powell—citing a perceived attempt to pressure him on interest‑rate policy—the Justice Department plans to appeal, potentially delaying any Senate vote. Powell has indicated he will remain “pro tem” if Warsh is not confirmed by the end of his term on May 15, and he could retain his governor seat until 2028 if he chooses.

President Donald Trump asserted that a diplomatic path remains open for Tehran, even as the United States enforces a naval blockade of Iranian ports and Israel deepens its ground offensive in southern Lebanon. Iran’s leadership denounced the blockade as "piracy" and thousands gathered in Tehran to demonstrate against the restriction on maritime traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The Associated Press reported that diplomatic channels are still active; Pakistan has volunteered to host a second round of negotiations in Islamabad later this week. US blockade and protests: The enforcement of the maritime restrictions has provoked Iranian accusations of illegal action and sparked street protests in the capital. Tehran’s legal stance: Iran’s armed forces labeled the blockade unlawful, warning that targeting its ports could jeopardize broader Gulf shipping. IRGC warning: A Revolutionary Guard spokesperson hinted that Iran retains "unused capabilities" and may adopt new tactics if the confrontation escalates. Parliamentary support for the Pope: Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Pope Leo XIV’s condemnation of the war, describing it as courageous. Russian nuclear staff pull‑out: Moscow has withdrawn most of its personnel from Iran’s sole nuclear power plant, a project built with Russian assistance. Qatar’s mediation call: Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani urged both Washington and Tehran to engage constructively in mediation. Pakistan’s ceasefire assessment: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the US‑Iran truce is holding, even as weekend talks failed to produce a breakthrough. Shipping disruption: A UN spokesperson warned that there is no military solution and noted that roughly 20,000 vessels are stranded, straining global supply chains, especially for fertiliser. UK push for Lebanese inclusion: London advocated adding Lebanon to the US‑Iran ceasefire framework, which currently omits Hezbollah‑related fighting. US‑Lebanon diplomatic talks: Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors are slated to meet in Washington to discuss halting hostilities. Hezbollah’s rejection: Leader Naim Qassem urged Lebanon to cancel the planned Washington meeting, reaffirming the group’s opposition to any direct dialogue with Israel. Russia’s uranium offer: The Kremlin reiterated its willingness to accept Iran’s enriched uranium as part of a broader US‑Iran settlement, echoing President Vladimir Putin’s statements. Trump on Iranian outreach: The former president claimed Iranian officials have expressed a strong desire to negotiate, though he did not identify the interlocutors. Trump’s stance on the Pope: He dismissed criticism of Pope Leo XIV as unwarranted, labeling the pontiff "weak" on key issues, including Iran. Threat to Iranian vessels: Trump warned that U.S. forces will neutralise any Iranian fast‑attack ships that approach the blockade zone. Domestic political pressure: Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, are pushing for a new vote to limit the president’s war‑making powers, citing rising U.S. fuel prices. Protester arrests in New York: Approximately 90 demonstrators, including whistleblower Chelsea Manning and actor Hari Nef, were detained during a Manhattan traffic‑stop protest against the war and U.S. arms sales to Israel. Israel’s buffer‑zone push: Israeli forces continue ground and air operations in southern Lebanon, razing structures in border towns such as Naqoura to create a security buffer. Hezbollah retaliation: The group has intensified rocket and drone attacks on Israeli positions in locations like Bint Jbeil and Biyyada. Accusations of a "Greater Israel": Hezbollah chief Hassan Qassem accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of pursuing an expansionist agenda backed by the United States. Diplomatic tension with Italy: Israel summoned the Italian ambassador after Italy’s foreign minister condemned Israeli attacks on Beirut as "unacceptable". Casualties in Lebanon: Israeli operations have raised the death toll in southern Lebanon since March 2 to at least 2,089, including a recent drone strike that killed two civilians near Nabatieh. Public opinion in Lebanon: Lebanese citizens are divided, with some weary of the conflict and hopeful for diplomacy, while others distrust Israel’s intentions. Canadian casualty: Canada’s foreign minister confirmed that a Canadian national died in southern Lebanon, though details remain scarce. Energy implications: Reuters reported that a Chinese‑owned tanker, sanctioned by the United States, successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, underscoring the challenges of enforcement. Oil market outlook: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned that oil prices could keep climbing until "meaningful ship traffic" resumes through the strait.

Kevin Warsh, the former Federal Reserve governor chosen by Donald Trump to lead the central bank, has submitted financial disclosures indicating he holds assets worth well over $100m. This disclosure is a required step for his nomination to advance through the Senate.The document, filed with the US Office of Government Ethics, reveals that Warsh has significant investments, including two worth more than $50m each in the Juggernaut Fund LP and $10.2m in consulting fees from Stanley Druckenmiller's investment office. He has also pledged to divest certain assets if confirmed.Warsh's holdings include around two dozen investments in THSDFS LLC, some valued as high as $5m, as well as assets in artificial intelligence and crypto sectors. His spouse, Jane Lauder, whose family has interests in the Estée Lauder cosmetics company, also had holdings disclosed.The filing is a key step in Warsh's expected confirmation to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, though the timing remains uncertain. A Senate banking committee hearing has yet to be scheduled, and Republican lawmakers have vowed to block his confirmation until a Department of Justice investigation into Powell is concluded.

Senator Bernie Sanders declared on Monday that he will force a vote later this week on a resolution designed to stop the sale of nearly $500 million in bombs and bulldozers to the Israeli military. The procedural maneuver bypasses the Senate majority leader, signaling a direct challenge to the administration’s policy of unconditional support for Israel.Sanders framed the measure as a response to what he described as the "extremist Netanyahu government" responsible for alleged genocide in Gaza, arguing that American taxpayers should not fund further military operations that exacerbate civilian suffering.While the Republican‑controlled Senate is unlikely to approve the resolution, the vote will serve as a barometer of Democratic sentiment toward Israel, especially as anger over the U.S.–Israel war on Iran and ongoing atrocities in Gaza and the West Bank intensifies.Last year, Sanders introduced a comparable bill that was defeated 27‑70. At that time, a majority of Senate Democrats had supported the effort, reflecting an erosion of the once‑solid bipartisan consensus backing Israel.Public opinion data underscores this shift: a February Gallup poll found that only 46 % of Americans hold favourable views of Israel, and a mere 17 % of Democratic respondents say they sympathise more with Israelis than Palestinians.Since the conflict began, the United States has provided Israel with over $21 billion in military assistance during the first two years of the Gaza war, a figure that critics argue fuels continued violence.Adding pressure from the advocacy side, liberal Zionist organization J Street issued its first call to phase out U.S. aid to the Israeli military, citing the combined impact of the Gaza war, rising extremist activity in the West Bank, and the U.S.–Israel confrontation with Iran.J Street urged Washington to consistently apply existing legal restrictions—such as the Leahy Law—that prohibit security assistance to countries implicated in human‑rights abuses, a standard it says has been routinely overlooked in Israel’s case.The upcoming Senate vote, therefore, not only tests the durability of the U.S.–Israel security partnership but also reflects a broader reevaluation of American foreign‑policy priorities amid a volatile Middle‑East landscape.