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The Lead: Iran's Military Doctrine TransformationTehran, Iran – Iranian authorities have expressed readiness for stronger military confrontation if necessary, after ending an exchange of fire with Israel that raised concerns of a return to all-out war. Iran's armed forces launched an air attack against Israel in response to strikes on the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh in Lebanon, marking a significant shift in their military approach.The Strategic Shift: From Reactive to Proactive Military PostureIn launching operation "Nasr" – which means victory – Iranian authorities demonstrated a willingness to immediately enforce deterrent warnings, rather than reacting to accumulated grievances as with previous instances of attacks against Israel. This emboldened move diverges from a long-standing policy of absorbing hits first and retaliating at a later time and place of their choosing."As we promised, we have acted," Ebrahim Zolfaghari, the spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the unified command of Iran's armed forces, said in a video statement on Monday afternoon, after Iran and Israel exchanged several rounds of fire for several hours.The Military Exchange: Targets and ResponsesAccording to state TV, the Iranian missiles targeted sites in Tiberias and Nahariya that provide military support for troops in southern Lebanon, as well as the Ramat David, Tel Nof and Nevatim military airbases. For their part, Israeli warplanes attacked the capital, Tehran, and other cities.One of the first Israeli targets was Karun, a major petrochemical plant in Mahshahr that produces industrial chemicals used in materials for car seats, mattresses and sofas. The city of Mahshahr also houses several other petrochemical giants, forming the backbone of Iran's non-oil economy, which have been extensively bombed during the war.The Israeli army framed the latest strikes as hitting "infrastructure for producing raw materials for the Iranian terror regime's missile programme" and reported attacks against "strategic defence systems."Economic and Regional ImplicationsThe targeting of Iran's petrochemical infrastructure represents a significant economic threat, as these facilities form the backbone of Iran's non-oil economy. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded by attacking the Bazan oil refinery in Haifa, with an unnamed source warning that other countries in the region could see their energy infrastructure attacked if Iran's facilities are targeted again.State TV also aired live pictures from a fast boat in the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iranian waters, with an IRGC naval commander stating that any "hostile military vessels" are banned from entering and will be "targeted without hesitation."The New Doctrine: Iran's Strategic AnnouncementThe authorities of the Islamic Republic touted the perceived value of the latest strikes against Israel as going beyond a simple military response, with no publicly visible internal strife over the decision to carry out the attacks.Sadegh Amoli Larijani, the head of the influential Expediency Council, described the move as "the official announcement of a strategic doctrine." "Tehran has opened a new chapter in its defence policy; a chapter in which safeguarding regional power is followed not through awaiting threats, but through taking initiative and offensive power," he wrote in a statement on Monday.Army chief Amir Hatami said in reference to Israel that "responsibility for the aggression of the Zionist regime lies with the US", and vowed to fight to the last drop of blood.Future Outlook: Regional Instability and Potential EscalationWith Iran announcing a new proactive military doctrine, the region faces increased instability and potential for further escalation. The exchange of fire between Iran and Israel has raised concerns of a return to all-out war, with both sides demonstrating continued military capabilities despite ongoing conflict.US President Donald Trump argued in a social media post that Israel and Iran "are looking to do an immediate ceasefire", adding that he would keep the blockade of Iran's ports in place. However, the hardened rhetoric from Iranian officials suggests they may be less inclined to de-escalate in the near term.The domestic response in Iran has been mixed, with some citizens continuing daily activities despite renewed bombing, while others express concern about potential internet shutdowns based on vague security considerations. As one Tehran resident noted, "Sadly, in this situation you adapt to a lot of abnormal things much more quickly than you might have imagined."

The Tragic Incident Fahd Abu Haikal, 41, is still in shock at the sudden death of his seven-month-old son, who was shot dead by an Israeli soldier as he travelled through the occupied West Bank city of Hebron on Friday. Sam was in the backseat of a car with his mother Dania Salameh, 28, and his brother Kinan, 11, as the father drove his mother, Ferial, 61, back to her home in Hebron, following a brief stay with the family in Bethlehem. The Shooting Details As they approached Tel Rumeida, a Hebron neighbourhood containing a large Israeli settlement where Ferial lives, a group of soldiers appeared out of the darkness. Fahd stopped the car and raised his hands, but despite all attempts to make it clear they were not a threat, a soldier took aim and fired at the vehicle. A bullet pierced the windshield, went through Fahd’s hand, and hit Sam, who sat behind him, in the face. It killed him instantly. The Aftermath The same bullet that killed Sam then travelled through his mother’s jaw, leaving a fragment lodged in Dania’s body, close to her heart. Doctors decided not to remove the shrapnel, fearing an operation so close to a major artery would endanger her life. Fahd called an ambulance, but with blood pouring from his wife’s and son’s bodies, he could wait no longer, so he flagged down a passing car and headed to the hospital. Due to Dania’s critical condition, he waited a day before telling her that their son was dead. The Family's Grief “After seeing the injuries, the soldiers withdrew from the scene without offering any assistance or doing anything about it,” Fahd told Al Jazeera. “We were shot with intent to kill; the soldier who shot us was on the front left side [of the vehicle].” Fahd intends to file a case against the soldier who fired the fatal shot, but he has little hope of accountability, particularly after the steps taken by the army at the scene of the boy’s death. Troubled Neighbourhood Hebron is one of the most oppressive environments in the West Bank for Palestinians, due in part to the presence of Israeli settlers in and around the city. Israeli forces have tightened their grip over Hebron since October 7, 2023, particularly the area around the Ibrahimi Mosque and Kiryat Arba settlement, where Tel Rumeida is situated. A thousand Palestinian families there are now effectively confined to an open-air prison.

The Lead Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has declared victory in the country's parliamentary elections, positioning himself for another term as leader of the South Caucasus nation. The announcement comes as votes are still being counted in the closely watched election that has drawn international attention due to Armenia's complex geopolitical position between Russia and the West. The Election Outcome Pashinyan's Civil Contract party appears to have secured a strong mandate according to preliminary results, though official confirmation from the Central Election Commission is still pending. The election follows months of political tension and public demonstrations, with Pashinyan facing criticism over his handling of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and subsequent relations with both traditional ally Russia and neighboring Azerbaijan. Regional Implications The election results carry significant weight for the stability of the South Caucasus region. Armenia has been navigating a delicate balance between maintaining ties with Russia while seeking closer relations with the European Union and United States. Pashinyan's continued leadership could further reshape Armenia's foreign policy orientation, potentially accelerating the country's pivot away from Moscow's influence amid Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine. Future Outlook With Pashinyan's apparent victory, Armenia is likely to continue pursuing its independent foreign policy course while addressing domestic challenges including economic development and the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh issue. The international community, particularly Western nations, may view this election as an opportunity to deepen partnerships with Armenia as a counterbalance to Russian influence in the region. However, the government will also need to address domestic concerns about economic inequality and the aftermath of the 2020 conflict.

The Lead: Russia's Allegation Against Western Intelligence In late May 2026, Alexander Bortnikov, head of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), claimed that Western intelligence services are attempting to utilize ex-fighters of the ISIL (ISIS) armed group as proxy forces against Iran. This allegation, made during a meeting of intelligence officials from eight ex-Soviet nations, represents the latest in a series of controversial claims by Russian security officials regarding Western activities in the Middle East. The Event Details: Bortnikov's Unsubstantiated Claims Bortnikov, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin and former KGB officer, stated that "Western intelligence services don't give up on their attempts to utilise militant terrorists from Syria as proxy forces in the war against Iran." However, he provided no concrete evidence to support these allegations, such as intercepted communications or photographic documentation. The timing of these claims coincides with the transfer of thousands of imprisoned ISIL fighters from detention centers in northeastern Syria to Iraq, a process that began in February 2026 following Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa's decision to join the anti-ISIL coalition. The Analysis: Historical Context and Credibility Issues The FSB, as the main successor to the Soviet KGB, has a history of making unsubstantiated claims about Western activities. Notably, the White House has previously accused the FSB of misinforming Putin, particularly regarding developments in Ukraine. Experts question the credibility of Bortnikov's assertions, with former KGB officer Gennady Gudkov stating that "these are just words, without any proof, not even an attempt to back them with details or facts." Gudkov suggests that the lack of oversight over Russian security agencies has enabled them to make unfounded claims without accountability. The Impact Analysis: Geopolitical Ramifications Bortnikov's allegations carry significant geopolitical implications, particularly for Russia's relationships with former Soviet republics in Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus. By suggesting that Western intelligence is recruiting ex-ISIL fighters to destabilize Iran and potentially influence neighboring countries, Bortnikov may be attempting to position Russia as the protector of these nations against Western interference. This rhetoric serves to reinforce Russia's influence in the region while countering growing Western alliances, particularly as Azerbaijan and Armenia—countries that border Iran and were historically part of it—seek to navigate complex geopolitical relationships. The Prediction: Future Information Warfare Dynamics Given the pattern of Russian intelligence operations, it's likely that similar claims will continue to emerge as Russia seeks to maintain its geopolitical positioning in the Middle East and former Soviet territories. The absence of public support from other ex-Soviet security officials and limited coverage in Russian media beyond state-controlled outlets suggests these claims may be more about messaging than factual reporting. As Russia faces increasing isolation and challenges in its traditional sphere of influence, information operations targeting Western credibility and promoting alternative narratives will likely intensify, with Iran remaining a key partner in countering Western influence in the region.

The Election Results Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract party has won Armenia's parliamentary election, with preliminary results showing 49.81% of the vote. The country's Central Election Commission (CEC) announced the results on Monday. The Opposition Parties The main opposition party, Strong Armenia, led by Samvel Karapetyan, came in second with 23.29% of the vote. Karapetyan rejected the results, calling the election 'shameful' and alleging violations and repression. The Implications Pashinyan's victory is seen as a mandate to continue his efforts to reorient Armenia's geopolitics towards the West and distance itself from Russia. He has pledged to 'continue the course of rapprochement with the West' while also developing Armenia's relations with Russia. The Future Outlook Pashinyan's party did not secure a two-thirds majority in parliament, which is necessary to call a constitutional referendum demanded as part of a peace deal with Azerbaijan. The final distribution of parliamentary seats is not yet clear. The International Reaction EU chief Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Pashinyan on the victory, hailing 'a democratic Armenia that is drawing ever closer to Europe.' French President Emmanuel Macron said the result would shift Armenia's 'momentum toward closer ties with Europe.'

Israel and Iran exchanged missile attacks on Monday, jeopardising a cease‑fire that has been holding since April. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck the Nevatim and Tel Nof airbases, while Israel reported a fresh barrage of missiles launched from Iran. The escalation also saw Yemen’s Houthi rebels fire a salvo at Israel and announce a ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea.Coordinated Strikes on Israeli Airbases and Iranian RetaliationThe IRGC announced early Monday that it had launched attacks on Israel’s Nevatim and Tel Nof airbases in response to Israeli air strikes on Iranian radar sites. Israel’s army confirmed detection of a new missile barrage from Iran and later reported strikes on a petrochemical complex in Mahshahr and other military targets inside Iran. Iranian media said explosions were heard in Tehran, Tabriz and Isfahan. In parallel, the Iran‑aligned Houthis claimed they fired a salvo at Israel and threatened to block Israeli ships in the Red Sea.Market Reaction: Brent Crude Surges Past $97 per BarrelFollowing the exchange of fire, the benchmark Brent crude price jumped above $97 a barrel. The rise reflects investor anxiety over potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil shipments that has been under pressure since Iran blocked the waterway after joint US‑Israel actions in February.Regional Stability at Risk: Implications for the Ceasefire and Energy RoutesCeasefire talks between Washington and Tehran aim to extend the truce and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.The latest hostilities undermine confidence in the agreement, raising the spectre of a broader conflict involving Lebanon, where Israel has also targeted Hezbollah positions.U.S. officials, including former President Donald Trump, have urged restraint, with Trump reportedly telling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to retaliate.Both sides have signalled a willingness to continue military operations while diplomatic channels remain open, creating a volatile mix of pressure and negotiation.Potential Trajectories: Diplomatic Talks and Military Posturing AheadIf the current pattern persists, Washington and Tehran will likely intensify diplomatic outreach to prevent a full‑scale war and to secure the energy corridor. A renewed security cabinet meeting in Israel, scheduled for 11 am local time (08:00 GMT), could shape the next round of military decisions. Conversely, continued missile exchanges could compel regional actors, including the Houthis and Hezbollah, to expand their involvement, further destabilising the Middle East.

The Escalation: Missile Exchanges Between Iran and IsraelIran and Israel were on Monday locked in tit-for-tat missile attacks, as the fragile ceasefire that has held in place since April 8 appeared closer to collapse than at any point in the past seven weeks. These escalating hostilities between Iran and Israel come as the United States-Israel war on Iran enters its 101st day on Monday.Iran's Response: Explosions and Strategic TargetsExplosions heard in Iran: Iran's IRNA news agency reported that at least "two powerful explosions" were heard in Tehran and at least three in the city of Isfahan. The broadcaster also reported that explosions were heard in Tabriz. The Israeli military had said it "attacked military targets" in western and central Iran.Power plant in Mahshahr attacked: A security officer in the southwestern Khuzestan governorate told the Fars news agency that Israeli forces have attacked the Karun Petrochemical Company in the city of Mahshahr. The Israeli army confirmed striking the petrochemical plant. The Mahshahr Petrochemical Special Economic Zone announced that its workers have evacuated the site following the Israeli strike.Iran denies attacking base in Saudi Arabia: Responding to reports of an explosion at the Al-Kharj airbase in Saudi Arabia, Iran's IRIB broadcaster cited a military official as saying that "Iran has not fired any shots."Red Crescent on standby: The Iranian Red Crescent says it is standing by to respond to any fallout from Israel's attacks across the country this morning.Israel's Position: Security Measures and Military ActionsSecurity cabinet meeting: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will convene a security cabinet meeting at 11am local time (08:00 GMT) amid escalating hostilities with Iran, according to multiple Israeli media reports.The Israeli military issued a series of alerts starting Sunday over waves of missiles launched from Iran towards Israeli territory.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Monday that they launched attacks against Israel's Nevatim and Tel Nof airbases as a response to attacks on radar sites within Iran, the Fars news agency reported.Israel's Channel 12 broadcaster and Ynet News said a missile fired from Yemen was intercepted.US Involvement: Diplomatic Maneuvers and Political ImplicationsThe US State Department issued a security alert for citizens in Jordan over reports of projectiles in the country's airspace – presumably missiles fired by Israel towards Iran, or by Iran towards Israel.Democratic Senator Chris Murphy said Israel's latest attack on Iran "compounds" the "humiliation" for US President Donald Trump, as it comes after the US president reportedly told Netanyahu not to retaliate to Iran's missiles fired at northern Israel.Lebanon: Cross-Border Tensions and Rocket InterceptionsExplosions were heard in the Lebanese capital Beirut early on Monday, but these were likely rocket interceptions, Al Jazeera's Zeina Khodr reported from Beirut.On Sunday, Israel had hit the suburbs of Beirut, in attacks that Iran described as crossing a red line in terms of violating a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel. Iran then said its decision to hit northern Israel was in response to these attacks near Beirut.International Diplomacy: Regional Powers Attempt MediationIsrael defends attacks on Iran: The Israeli ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, defended the attacks on Iran, saying "no self-respecting country" would tolerate Iran's missile launches against Israel.Canada expresses concern: Canada's Foreign Ministry has expressed concern about the resumption of conflict between Iran and Israel, saying it jeopardises the ongoing negotiations and "the prospects for peace".Saudi-Qatari foreign ministers speak: Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud spoke by phone with his Qatari counterpart, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, the Saudi Foreign Ministry said.Qatari-Iranian foreign ministers speak: The Qatari foreign minister, who is also the country's prime minister, spoke by phone with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi about mediation efforts between Iran and the US, as well as the latest developments in Lebanon, according to a Qatari statement.Regional Outlook: Ceasefire in JeopardyThe escalating military exchanges between Iran and Israel have put the fragile ceasefire established in early April at serious risk. With regional powers including Saudi Arabia and Qatar attempting to mediate, and the United States involved through both military support for Israel and diplomatic channels, the coming days will be critical in determining whether the conflict can be de-escalated or if it will expand further across the Middle East.

The LeadThe western Syrian city of Homs is only a husk of its former self. Previously a major industrial centre, the region became a key battleground between 2011 and 2014, for Bashar al-Assad's army and rebel forces. Amid the immense bloodshed, hundreds of thousands of civilians were either displaced or trapped inside their own homes.The Documentary's Visual TestamentFilmed in the summer of 2023, this deeply moving documentary from Palestinian-born and Syria-based film-maker Anas Zawahri maps out the collective trauma and sorrow that continue to linger, even after the shooting has stopped. Unfolding in languorous, largely static shots of bombed rubble, hollowed-out buildings, and deserted streets, the film lays bare the startling extent of wartime brutality.Human Stories Amidst RuinsA sense of stillness and stagnancy hangs in the air, and almost every wall is riddled with bullet holes, urban scars that mirror the psychological wounds borne by the survivors. Their heart-wrenching testimony is laid over these images of destruction, lending a human dimension to the ruins. One resident ruminates over how Homs changed from a city of laughter to one of agony and grief. With bitter irony, another considers himself lucky to be blind, and thus does not have to suffer the mental shock of seeing his beloved home town razed.The Resilience of YouthPunctuated by songs of lamentation, the film is elegiac in tone, a visual hymn for what Homs once was. While bearing witness to the pain left behind, Zawahri also makes space for the resilience of the living, with a special focus on children and adolescents. The war's impact on their lives is enormous – many are working as adults instead of going to school, though we see them engage in spirited play, even when surrounded by ruins. With peace more fragile than ever, their innocence and joy strike a bittersweet chord.

Heat Haze Over Westmorland: A 1951 Summer SnapshotWestmorland in early June 1951 was caught in a lingering summer heat that turned the fells into a drowsy, hazy tableau. The Guardian’s Country Diary captures the atmosphere: brown grass, bright bracken, and still waters that betray a season arriving “perhaps too soon.”Dry Conditions and Declining Lake LevelsThe diary notes that lake levels were “lower than they have been for months,” with virtually no ripples and an absence of fish activity. Rock climbers felt the heat “rebound from the great rocks like sound from a gong,” while mosses, usually sodden for most of the year, had become “brittle as tinder.”Quantifying the Agricultural ShortfallHay harvest projected to be later than any previous year.Prospects for winter fodder described as “grim,” threatening livestock nutrition.Livestock—dairy cows and sheep—were observed seeking shade or wading in the drying lakes, indicating stress.Although exact figures are absent, the narrative signals a significant reduction in usable pasture and a likely shortfall in stored feed for the upcoming winter months.Implications for Rural Livelihoods in Post‑War BritainThe entry underscores the vulnerability of post‑war British agriculture to weather extremes. With farms already operating under tight margins, a delayed hay cut and insufficient fodder could exacerbate economic pressures on farmers, potentially leading to reduced milk output and higher feed costs.What a Similar Drought Could Mean TodayModern climate models warn that heatwaves of this intensity may become more frequent. If a comparable event struck today, advanced irrigation and forecasting could mitigate some impacts, yet the fundamental challenge—ensuring adequate feed for livestock during prolonged dry spells—remains. The 1951 diary serves as a historical reminder of the tight link between weather, water resources, and agricultural resilience.