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The Gulf Cooperation Council is reassessing its security model after the brief but intense US‑Israel campaign against Iran. With American bases on Gulf soil turning the region into a target for Tehran’s missile and drone barrage, Gulf capitals are looking to diversify their defence partners beyond the United States. Iran’s lingering missile arsenal and its demand to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz remain the central security dilemma. The strait channels the bulk of Gulf oil trade, and Tehran’s insistence on keeping a foothold there was a sticking point in the cease‑fire talks scheduled to begin in Islamabad. Gulf air defences boasted a high interception rate, claiming to have neutralised more than 90% of the 2,256 drones and 563 missiles that struck the United Arab Emirates, the hardest‑hit member of the bloc. Nevertheless, the Gulf is split on how to engage Iran moving forward. A hawkish bloc led by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain favours a tougher stance, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others are open to restoring diplomatic ties. In a rare development, Saudi Arabia and Iran held their first official conversation since the conflict began, with foreign ministers discussing measures to lower tensions and restore regional stability. Security scholars such as Bader Mousa Al‑Saif of Kuwait University argue that Gulf states must broaden their security network, forging alliances with regional powers like Turkey and Pakistan rather than relying solely on the United States. He warned that the region needs a model that shields it from a perpetual state of war. Pre‑war trends are now accelerating: Saudi Arabia recently signed a defence pact with Pakistan, the UAE announced a partnership with India, and all three Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar – entered rapid defence agreements with Ukraine to counter Iranian drone threats. Talks of a “Muslim NATO” have largely faded, but a new alignment dubbed “Step”, involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan, is taking shape. The coalition’s purpose remains ambiguous, oscillating between counter‑Iran and counter‑Israel objectives, and internal rivalries complicate cohesion. The United Kingdom, which helped protect Gulf airspace during the hostilities, is also seeking deeper defence‑industrial cooperation with Saudi Arabia, as discussed by Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Jeddah. UAE political scientist Abdulkhaleq Abdulla predicts tighter security ties with the United States and a growing willingness among Gulf states to engage with Israel on military and intelligence fronts. Analysts such as Yasmine Farouk of the International Crisis Group note that Saudi Arabia’s extensive oil infrastructure, Red Sea ports and sheer geographic size give it a strategic advantage in post‑war reconstruction, though the cost of rebuilding could strain its Vision 2030 diversification agenda. Looking ahead, the Gulf is expected to layer additional security partnerships—particularly with European nations—while investing heavily in air and missile defence, hardened ports, desalination facilities, maritime surveillance and alternative export routes. As Andreas Krieg of King’s College London observes, the United States remains the only power with a full‑scale military architecture in the Gulf, but its bases are increasingly viewed as “tripwires” rather than protective shields.

The United Kingdom's Defence Minister, John Healey, announced that British forces had successfully tracked and deterred three Russian submarines in a covert operation within UK waters in the High North maritime region. This area is strategically important due to its proximity to key shipping routes and crucial undersea cables.Healey revealed that the month-long operation, which involved British warships and military aircraft, did not find evidence of Russian vessels damaging undersea infrastructure. However, the decision to publicly disclose the operation was made to 'call out' Russian activity and send a clear message to Russian President Vladimir Putin.“We see you, we see your activity over our cables and pipelines. And you should know that any attempt to damage them will not be tolerated, and will have serious consequences,” Healey stated. The British Defence Ministry identified the submarines as an Akula-class Russian nuclear-powered attack submarine and two specialist submarines from Russia's Main Directorate of Deep Sea Research (GUGI), which defence experts consider one of Moscow's most secret facilities.The Russian embassy in London rejected the British government's claims that its submarines posed a threat to undersea cables. According to Healey, the Russian attack submarine was likely a decoy to distract from the two specialist vessels designed to survey underwater infrastructure during peacetime and sabotage it in conflict. The operation highlights growing concerns about threats to undersea cables, which connect about 99 percent of global internet traffic, with the UK having 60 cables near its waters.

OECD preliminary figures reveal a 23% decline in international development assistance between 2024 and 2025, the steepest annual fall recorded since the organization began tracking aid.The United States was the primary catalyst, with its official development assistance slashing nearly 57% in 2025, a reduction that accounts for roughly three‑quarters of the overall drop.Total aid from the 34 DAC members fell from $214.6 billion to $174.3 billion. American contributions shrank from about $63 billion in 2024 to just under $29 billion the following year, according to the OECD.Other major donors—including Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and France—also trimmed their budgets, and only eight DAC countries managed to meet or exceed their 2024 levels.The cuts arrive at a time of heightened global economic and food‑security uncertainty, exacerbated by the ongoing US‑Israeli conflict with Iran.OECD official Carsten Staur described the plunge as “deeply concerning,” urging donors to reverse the trend as humanitarian needs surge. Oxfam’s Development Finance Lead Didier Jacobs warned that wealthy governments are “turning their backs on millions of lives in the Global South” by cutting life‑saving aid while funding conflict.Academic research links the U.S. reductions to a rise in armed conflict across Africa, with the Center for Global Development estimating that the cuts could have caused between 500,000 and 1,000,000 excess deaths in 2025. A Lancet analysis warns that continuing the downward trajectory may result in **over 9.4 million additional deaths by 2030**.Under President Trump, the United States has dismantled the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and pursued a handful of bilateral agreements with African nations that tie aid to mineral access and health data. Simultaneously, the administration is seeking a historic $1.5 trillion military budget for FY2027** and between **$80 billion and $200 billion** for the Iran‑Israel war effort.Analysts and NGOs are calling on DAC members to restore aid levels and reinforce the global humanitarian system, which they say faces its most serious crisis in decades.

Greenland Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen has urged NATO allies to stand united in defending international law, following US President Donald Trump's recent comments about the Arctic island. Trump's remarks described Greenland as a 'big, poor, poorly run, piece of ice.'Nielsen firmly rejected this characterization, stating, 'We are not some piece of ice. We are a proud population of 57,000 people, working every single day as good global citizens in full respect for all our allies.'The Prime Minister emphasized the importance of maintaining the post-war geopolitical order, including NATO's defence alliance and globally respected international law. 'Those things are being challenged now, and I think all allies should stand together to try to maintain them. I hope that will happen,' he said.NATO allies had been scrambling earlier this year to keep the alliance together after Trump revived his push to seize Greenland from Denmark, a fellow NATO member. The White House in January said Trump was weighing the use of military force in Greenland, prompting Germany, France, and other European nations to send troops to the island in a show of solidarity and deterrence.Trump later backed down after talks with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, stating that 'the framework of a future deal' had been formed and moving the Greenland dispute to a diplomatic track. Diplomatic talks between Greenland, Denmark, and the US are ongoing, with more meetings scheduled.Despite the talks, Nielsen made it clear he did not believe Trump had abandoned his ambitions regarding the island: 'I cannot see that his desire to either take over or control Greenland has been taken off the table,' he said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on Thursday that it would be "dumb" for the United States to permit Israel to jeopardise the newly‑declared regional ceasefire by persisting with its intense bombardment of Lebanon, a campaign that has already claimed hundreds of lives. Araghchi noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trial is set to resume on Sunday, suggesting the prime minister may have ulterior motives for sustaining the fighting. He wrote on social media that a ceasefire encompassing Lebanon would "hasten his jailing," implying that the truce could pressure Netanyahu’s legal woes. Addressing Washington directly, Araghchi said: "If the US wishes to crater its economy by letting Netanyahu kill diplomacy, that would ultimately be its choice. We think that would be dumb but are prepared for it." The statement echoes language used by U.S. Vice President JD Vance the previous day, who warned that Iran would find it "dumb" to let the ceasefire collapse over Lebanon, yet framed it as a choice for Tehran. Since the ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, the dispute over whether it applies to Lebanon has become a central obstacle to sustaining the truce. Iranian officials and media have hinted that Tehran could respond militarily to Israel’s assault on Lebanon or even block the Strait of Hormuz to enforce a Lebanon‑wide ceasefire. President Donald Trump told NBC News that he had spoken with Netanyahu and urged the Israeli government to "scale back" its operations in Lebanon, describing the approach as "low‑key." Vance also reported that Israeli officials had agreed to "check themselves a little bit in Lebanon." Despite these diplomatic overtures, the violence shows no sign of abating. The death toll from recent Israeli strikes in Lebanon has already surpassed 300, marking one of the deadliest days in the country’s recent history. On Thursday, Israel launched several new attacks, including a strike that killed four rescuers in the southern town of Borj Qalaouiye, and issued a displacement order for Beirut’s Jnah district, home to two major hospitals and tens of thousands of residents and displaced persons. The United States has a track record of asserting that Israel will curb its military actions, only to witness continued strikes. In 2024, the Biden administration insisted that Israel’s operation in Rafah was "limited," yet the Israeli military ultimately razed nearly every structure in the city, a tactic now hinted at for southern Lebanon. The Lebanese conflict escalated into full‑scale war in early March after Hezbollah fired rockets in retaliation for Israeli strikes and following the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28. Since a separate November 2024 ceasefire, Israel has maintained near‑daily attacks on Lebanon, targeting civilian infrastructure and deepening the humanitarian crisis.

Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, is preparing to host critical talks between US and Iranian officials this weekend, in a bid to revive a faltering ceasefire and bring an end to the devastating conflict in the Middle East.The negotiations, scheduled to begin on Saturday, will be led by US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, with Pakistani officials facilitating the discussions.The talks are taking place against a backdrop of escalating tensions in the region, with Israel's intensified bombing of Lebanon and Iran's attacks on its Gulf neighbors. A two-week ceasefire was agreed upon by both Washington and Tehran, facilitated by Pakistan, but it is already under strain.Key issues on the agenda include Iran's 10-point proposal for peace, which calls for Iranian oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, the withdrawal of US combat forces from the Middle East, and a halt to military operations against allied armed groups. The US has not formally accepted these terms, but President Trump has described the plan as 'workable'.One of the major obstacles to a lasting settlement is Israel's continued aggression in Lebanon, which has resulted in over 200 deaths. Iran has warned that it may abandon the ceasefire if Israeli strikes continue, while the US has insisted that the ceasefire terms do not cover Lebanon.Despite the challenges, analysts believe that a modicum of agreement between the US and Iran on key issues, such as the nuclear issue and the Strait of Hormuz, may be possible. However, Israel's absence from the talks is seen as a significant structural challenge to a lasting settlement.

The strategic Strait of Hormuz, linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, has become the focal point of the Israel‑U.S. war on Iran that began in February. In peacetime the narrow waterway handled about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments without any tolls, but the conflict has turned it into a contested zone. After a series of Israeli and U.S. strikes, Iran retaliated by targeting merchant vessels it deemed hostile, effectively shutting the passage and triggering one of the most severe energy‑distribution crises in recent memory. While a two‑week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, was declared on Tuesday, Tehran has issued a set of official terms that would govern the strait moving forward. According to Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghi, safe passage will be allowed in coordination with the Iranian armed forces and subject to technical limitations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has even published a new navigation map that pushes traffic farther north, away from the traditional route near Oman’s coast, citing the risk of anti‑ship mines. Central to Tehran’s 10‑point peace proposal is the idea of charging fees for strait usage. Iranian media report that the plan could levy up to $2 million per vessel—a sum to be shared with Oman—or a charge of $1 per barrel of oil shipped. The revenue would allegedly fund reconstruction of military and civilian infrastructure damaged by the U.S.–Israeli campaign. Oman has publicly rejected any toll scheme, with Transport Minister Said Al‑Maawali reminding that the country has already signed all relevant international maritime transport agreements that prohibit such fees. International law adds another layer of complexity. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) prohibits levying charges for mere passage through international straits, allowing fees only for services like navigation assistance or port use. Neither the United States nor Iran have ratified UNCLOS, but the principle remains a benchmark for maritime norms. Analysts suggest a possible workaround: charging for de‑mining and safety services rather than for passage itself, which could be permissible under existing legal frameworks. The proposal has sparked diplomatic pushback. At the United Nations Security Council, Bahrain led a resolution urging coordinated reopening of the strait, backed by Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan. The resolution passed with 11 of 15 votes, but was vetoed by Russia and China, who argued it unfairly targeted Iran and ignored the initial strikes. Beyond the region, the United States is unlikely to accept indefinite tolls. Former President Donald Trump, who announced the ceasefire, warned that U.S. forces would remain in the area and threatened to resume attacks if negotiations faltered. American troops are reportedly “hanging around” to assist with traffic buildup, though the extent of their operational control remains unclear. Maritime analyst C. Uday Bhaskar notes that only three to five ships have traversed the strait since the ceasefire began, underscoring the lingering uncertainty for global shippers. He adds that ship owners facing multi‑million‑dollar losses each day may ultimately acquiesce to Iran’s terms, at least temporarily. Should Iran implement a toll regime, the immediate impact would fall on Gulf oil‑producing nations, but the ripple effects could destabilize global energy markets, already strained by supply shocks. Major powers such as the United Kingdom have been coordinating with a coalition of 40 countries to explore alternative mechanisms for reopening the waterway without conceding to tolls. In sum, Iran’s proposed protocol for the Strait of Hormuz introduces a contentious new variable into an already volatile geopolitical landscape, pitting national security interests against established maritime law and the broader stability of world energy supplies.

In a stark assessment of the ongoing regional confrontation, Iranian officials acknowledge that the country has endured significant casualties, yet they assert that Tehran is gaining a strategic advantage over the combined forces of the United States and Israel. The narrative, presented by Al Jazeera on April 9, 2026, emphasizes that despite being "bloodied," Iran perceives its actions as a victory against the US‑Israel axis. This framing signals Tehran’s intent to portray resilience and influence, even as the human and material costs rise. Analysts note that such rhetoric serves multiple purposes: it bolsters domestic morale, signals to regional allies that Iran remains a formidable player, and attempts to undermine the cohesion of the US‑Israel partnership. By positioning itself as a winner in a conflict where the costs are visible, Iran aims to reshape the discourse around its regional role. While the article does not provide specific casualty figures or detailed military outcomes, the emphasis on a perceived strategic win suggests a broader shift in Tehran’s diplomatic messaging. The statement may also foreshadow Iran’s next steps in leveraging its position to negotiate from a place of perceived strength. Observers will watch closely how this narrative influences both Tehran’s internal politics and its external engagements with neighboring states, as well as how the United States and Israel respond to a claim of Iranian ascendancy despite evident hardships.

The Al‑Aqsa Mosque compound in occupied East Jerusalem reopened after a 40‑day closure imposed by Israeli authorities.Verified video footage released by Al Jazeera shows crowds streaming through the gates early Thursday, with approximately 3,000 worshippers attending the morning prayers.The ban had been total—or limited to a few dozen faithful—at Christian, Jewish and Muslim sites since the US‑Israeli war on Iran began on February 28. Israel frequently imposes restrictions, especially on Palestinian worshippers.The Islamic Waqf Department in occupied Jerusalem confirmed that the doors of Al‑Aqsa would be opened to all worshippers from dawn; the Jordanian‑affiliated authority managing the site offered no further details.Volunteers and caretakers were seen preparing courtyards and prayer areas to receive the faithful, while Israeli officials announced the simultaneous opening of the Church of the Holy Sepulchre on Wednesday evening.Israeli police attributed the decision to “updated instructions from the Israeli Home Front Command” and highlighted a massive security deployment, with hundreds of police officers and border guards stationed throughout the Old City and surrounding roads to “secure visitors.”Jerusalem’s holy sites have endured strict security measures and repeated closures during the six‑week regional war, curtailing celebrations of Lent, Passover, Ramadan and, for the first time since Israel’s 1967 occupation, Eid al‑Fitr prayers at Al‑Aqsa.The lifting of the ban arrives just in time for Orthodox Christians, who observe Easter on Sunday, a week after Catholic and Protestant celebrations.Continued Raids in the Occupied West BankIsraeli forces continued operations across the occupied West Bank. In Nablus, a woman was detained and a man assaulted during an early‑morning raid, according to the Palestinian news agency Wafa.The Ramallah‑based Palestinian Health Ministry reported that Israeli forces fatally shot 28‑year‑old Alaa Khaled Mohammed Sbeih near the village of Tayasir on Wednesday night; the Israeli military said an off‑duty soldier fired at a stone‑thrower.Wafa added that six young men were detained in Tayasir, while troops stormed homes in Ya’bad, south of Jenin, destroying the contents of three houses. Additional raids hit the villages of Qusra and Awarta, though no arrests were reported there.The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates that more than 1,100 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces and settlers in the West Bank since 2023, with at least 10,000 people forcibly displaced.