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An international conference in Berlin has yielded pledges of over £1 billion to support Sudan, a country devastated by three years of conflict. The funding, which exceeds the initial target of $1 billion (£740 million) set by German ministers, aims to alleviate the world's largest humanitarian crisis.The financial commitments will help address a chronic humanitarian funding shortfall in Sudan, where two-thirds of the population, or 34 million people, require assistance. The crisis has been exacerbated by ongoing conflict between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the army.UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged international delegates to take action, highlighting 'credible allegations of the gravest international crimes' and the need for an immediate cessation of hostilities. He emphasized that 'funding alone cannot substitute for peace.'The UK Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper, called for a concerted international effort to stop the flow of arms into Sudan, while the US emphasized its commitment to a humanitarian truce that would allow aid to reach those in need.Despite the funding pledges, the prospect of peace remains distant, with scant progress reported on ceasefire talks and neither of Sudan's warring parties attending the conference.

A recent set of studies has brought to light a concerning issue in social science research: up to half of all results published in reputable journals cannot be replicated by independent analysis. This problem is part of a broader challenge affecting various research fields, most notably social sciences and psychology, though concerns have also been raised in areas of biomedical research. The latest work, part of a seven-year project called Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence (Score), analyzed 3,900 social science papers. It found that newer papers and those published in journals requiring extensive sharing of underlying data were more likely to be reproduced. Additionally, medical research faces its own set of constraints, such as differing patient caseloads and limited sample sizes, which can make it resemble social sciences more than laboratory physics. Policymakers should be cautious of claims that don’t have a wide and robust base of evidence. The issue of reproducibility is crucial, as it looks at whether results can be recreated from the same data and methods, while replication tests whether the finding holds for new data in different contexts. However, politicians have increasingly looked to turn uncertainty into denial and recast normal scientific uncertainty as evidence of failure. Large-scale verification projects, like those undertaken by Score, are few and far between. Most academic researchers prioritize work that is more likely to enhance their careers. AI may help in deciding what to test, but it can’t reduce the costs and time involved in duplicating a piece of research. Not every failed replication signals a crisis; some findings don’t matter much, and replication studies can themselves be flawed. Greater transparency makes outright fraud more difficult and allows errors to be identified. Some argue that research “ultimately autocorrects,” but the long-term solution — shifting incentives so existing results are tested — would increase confidence. This requires restructuring of research culture and funding. For now, it remains largely notional. These studies should strengthen the case for change and serve as a warning. Social science is a powerful tool for understanding the world – and that trust will be built by acknowledging uncertainty, not repudiating it.

Sir Keir Starmer cannot be blamed for the economic consequences of a war he did not start, but he needs to have a plan in place for a severe and prolonged crisis. The public needs to see that the government is proactive and prepared to address the challenges ahead.

Lagos, one of Africa's most dynamic cities, is facing a severe housing crisis. The city's population of approximately 22 million people is putting immense pressure on its housing market, leading to soaring rents and a shortage of affordable accommodation.Oluwatobi Ogundipe, a 32-year-old product manager, commutes four hours daily from his small flat in Sango Ota to his office on Lagos Island. Despite working in one of Nigeria's growing technology sectors, he cannot afford to live closer to his office, highlighting the affordability crisis in the city.Rents across Lagos have surged beyond wage growth, with prices increasing by as much as 400% in some areas. On the mainland, flats that rented for ₦500,000 two years ago now cost up to ₦2.5m a year. On the island, rents have tripled, making it even more challenging for residents to find affordable housing.The city's deputy governor, Obafemi Hamzat, attributes the crisis to persistent migration pressure, with about 6,000 new inhabitants arriving and 3,000 leaving each day. This has led to a shortage of over 3.4 million housing units, according to Prof. Taibat Lawanson, a professor of urban management and governance at the University of Lagos.The shortage of affordable homes is exacerbated by developers prioritizing high-end projects over affordable housing, driven by high construction costs, soaring urban land prices, and limited housing finance. This has led to a proliferation of luxury flats, even as people struggle to secure basic accommodation.The crisis has also fueled the popularity of short-term rentals, with many landlords converting their homes into short-let properties, further reducing the availability of long-term rentals and driving prices higher.For now, Lagos's residents adapt, making long commutes through the city's infamous traffic. As Ogundipe says, "We all come to Lagos chasing something, but these days, it feels like the city is slowly pushing us away."

The humanitarian situation in Darfur has dramatically deteriorated over the past three years, as Sudan's civil war continues to wreak havoc on the region. Residents face severe challenges, including widespread hunger, corruption through bribery, and infrastructure ruin. The crisis has left deep scars on the local population and infrastructure.The situation underscores the urgent need for international intervention and humanitarian aid to alleviate the suffering and support recovery efforts in Darfur.

The IMF has cautioned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel, poses a substantial risk to global economic stability. The fund's half-yearly fiscal monitor report highlights that global debt levels are on track to increase due to the war's impact on energy and food prices, higher government borrowing costs, and slower economic growth.Against this volatile backdrop, the IMF has warned that governments may be forced to choose between cushioning the cost of living shock and maintaining sound public finances. The fund's report notes that global debt levels have already risen to almost 94% of GDP and are projected to reach 100% by 2029, a level not seen since the aftermath of World War II.The IMF emphasizes that any energy support schemes to shield households and businesses from the impact of higher energy prices should be targeted and temporary, focusing on those most exposed and least able to absorb price increases. The fund also cautions against using further borrowing to cushion the blow, suggesting that governments should instead reallocate spending within existing limits and prioritize crisis-related spending.The report highlights the risks associated with higher debt and interest costs, which could eventually force governments to make tougher choices or destabilize debt markets. The IMF points to the UK's experience with Liz Truss's 2022 mini-budget as an example of how market confidence can be lost when fiscal policies are perceived as unsustainable.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a warning that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a major energy crisis. The strait, located between Iran and Oman, is a critical passage for global oil shipments, making it a vital artery for the world's energy supplies.A disruption in this region could have significant implications for the global economy, potentially leading to higher oil prices and increased volatility in energy markets. The IMF's warning underscores the importance of maintaining stability in this critical region.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to revise the trade deal between the US and UK, signed last year, citing the 'sad state' of their relations. The deal, which cut some US tariffs on cars, aluminium, and steel, was described by Trump as 'better than I had to' and 'can always be changed'.The strained relations between the two countries are largely due to sharp differences over the US approach to the Middle East, particularly the conflict with Iran. UK ministers have expressed frustration and anger over the economic fallout of the US decision to go to war with Iran, which could trigger a global recession.UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has voiced her frustration, stating that the US launched strikes without a clear idea of its objectives. Keir Starmer, the UK leader, has also expressed his concerns, saying he is 'fed up' with Trump's actions causing energy bills to rise.Trump, in an interview with Sky News, accused Britain of not being supportive during the Iran conflict, saying 'they were not there when we needed them'. He also suggested that a permanent ceasefire with Tehran could be struck before King Charles's state visit to the US later in April.The IMF's spring meetings will focus on the crisis in the Gulf, with the organisation cutting Britain's economic growth forecast due to the conflict. The Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, has stated that the UK is better placed to deal with the fallout due to its resilient banking system.

The British foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, will urge Sudan's warring parties to 'cease bloodshed' during a major conference on Wednesday, which analysts believe is unlikely to deliver a significant step towards peace.The talks in Berlin – held on the third anniversary of the start of Sudan's ruinous war – are expected to help address a catastrophic funding shortfall that is compounding the world's worst humanitarian crisis.Overall, just 16% of the humanitarian funding needed for Sudan this year has been provided by the international community as the crisis in Iran continues to dominate diplomatic channels.Britain is among the countries attending the conference that are set to announce new funding for Sudan. Cooper will unveil a doubling of UK aid to £15m for Sudanese frontline responders such as the grassroots volunteer network known as Emergency Response Rooms.With the war now entering its fourth year, and with no sign of hostilities abating between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese army, latest assessments indicate more than 19 million people face acute hunger as a result of the fighting, while some areas are at risk of famine.The latest assessment from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) found 'emergency' levels of hunger across much of North Kordofan, West Kordofan, South Kordofan and North Darfur, while levels in some communities remained 'catastrophic'.It added that emergency levels of hunger were expected to spread over the coming months and that the number of people needing humanitarian aid was expected to reach 22-23 million.Despite the scale of the suffering, Cooper hopes that an end to the fighting is achievable. 'Today, in Berlin, I will call for the international community to join in a shared resolve: to secure a ceasefire and a diplomatic solution, to stop the suffering, and allow the people of Sudan to determine their own peaceful future,' she said.