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The Escalating Cost of Russia's War in UkraineEvidence of Russia's poor performance in its war in Ukraine, both militarily and economically, has been mounting over the past week. The US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) has confirmed earlier assessments that Russia has lost territory it previously occupied in Ukraine, while Ukraine has managed to reclaim approximately 400 square kilometers in and around Dnipropetrovsk – more territory than at any time since late 2022.Russia's Military Setbacks and Economic StrainRussia has still made a net territorial gain in 2026, but its advance is slowing down dramatically. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, Russia advanced by a net 104 sq km between January 1 and May 26, 2026, compared to its seizure of 1,619 sq km during the same period last year.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Russian casualties had increased to 145,000 this year, of which 86,000 were killed and 59,000 troops seriously wounded. Ukraine's Defence Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, highlighted that this meant 179 Russian losses per square kilometre of advance, compared to 67 last year – a rate higher than what Russia is currently able to replace through recruitment.Russia's war is also becoming increasingly difficult to finance. Having exceeded its entire 2026 budget deficit allowance by April, and depleted its foreign exchange reserves, Russia has been drawing down gold reserves at an unprecedented pace. According to its Central Bank, Russia has sold 27.9 tonnes of its gold reserves this year, worth more than $4bn, leaving reserves at their lowest since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.Shifting Battlefield Dynamics and StrategiesThe DIA attributed Ukraine's territorial gains to Russia losing access to Starlink satellite services used for targeting and counter-battery fire. Ukraine attributes its success to its strategy of interdicting Russian logistics through mid-range drone and artillery strikes, which Fedorov described as a programme called "Logistical Lockdown" designed "to scale up middle-strike and systematically destroy Russian capabilities at the operational depth."This Ukrainian tactic has prevented reinforcements of men and equipment from reaching the frontlines, diminishing Russia's superiority in depth of resources and mass. The effectiveness of this strategy was demonstrated when Kherson occupation governor Vladimir Saldo restricted movement along the M-14 highway connecting Mariupol, Berdyansk and Melitopol, due to the number of vehicles being struck there.On the defensive front, Ukraine received a significant boost when Sweden announced it would donate 16 Gripen warplanes to Ukraine, which would also purchase an additional 20 through the EU's Ukraine Support Loan in a deal worth $2.9bn. Zelenskyy noted that "Gripen fighters with appropriate weapons, in particular Meteor missiles, which destroy targets at a distance of more than 200 kilometres, will help us push back Russian aircraft" against the approximately 3,000 Russian glide bombs dropped weekly.Simultaneously, Ukraine continued its long-range strikes on the Russian oil economy, which funds the war. On May 23-24, Ukraine struck oil depots and terminals at Novorossiysk and Tamanneftegaz on the Black Sea, as well as military and industrial sites including the Metafrax Chemicals plant in Perm and the Taganrog Airbase in Rostov.Russia's Response and Escalation TacticsIn response to Ukrainian advances, Russia pursued its own aerial tactic of striking Kyiv through massive combined attacks of drones and missiles. On May 24, Russia launched 600 long-range drones and 90 missiles against Kyiv and surrounding areas, including 36 ballistic missiles. Ukraine managed to shoot down 91 percent of the drones and 81 percent of the cruise missiles, though those that hit damaged government buildings, museums, and a market, injuring at least 87 people and killing two.Russia framed these attacks as retaliation for what it described as a terror attack on a college in occupied Luhansk, which it claimed killed six students and injured 39. Ukraine's General Staff countered that it was a strike on a centre for Advanced Unmanned Technologies run by Rubikon, Russia's unmanned systems force.Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov informed his US counterpart, Marco Rubio, that Russia would begin striking "military sites" in Kyiv in retaliation, warning foreign citizens, including diplomats, to leave. Moscow specifically mentioned using its newest Oreshnik intermediate range missile in the attacks, which it has also forward-positioned in Belarus.Future Outlook of the ConflictThe current trajectory suggests that Ukraine's strategy of targeted strikes on Russian logistics and supply lines, combined with enhanced air defense capabilities from international partners, will continue to challenge Russia's military advances. However, Russia's demonstrated willingness to escalate attacks on urban centers and its deployment of advanced weaponry indicate that the conflict may enter a more intense phase.As Russia depletes its financial resources and struggles to replace casualties, its ability to sustain current operations may diminish. Conversely, Ukraine's increasing success in securing international military support and refining its asymmetric tactics could shift the balance further in its favor, though the long-term outcome remains uncertain as both sides adapt their strategies.

The Lead: Melbourne’s Vinyl Boom Takes Center StageMelbourne has been dubbed the "vinyl capital of the world" after a Victorian Music Development Office report highlighted the city’s 5.9 record stores per 100,000 residents. The claim fuels a vibrant local scene showcased at ACMI’s The Vinyl Factory: Reverb exhibition, where audiophiles can experience rare records and immersive installations. The Exhibition Spotlight: Listening Rooms and Interactive InstallationsThe exhibition’s Listening Room features a Technics SL‑1300GE‑K turntable, Pitt & Giblin Superwax speakers and a curated selection ranging from Miles Davis to Ryuichi Sakamoto. Curator Yasmine Sharaf invites visitors to pick any record and have it played, emphasizing accessibility over performance art. Documentary linking Detroit techno to the transatlantic slave trade.Carsten Nicolai’s 1998 work bausatz noto, allowing live remixing on four turntables. The Vinyl Store Density Debate: Melbourne vs. TokyoThe per‑capita metric contrasts sharply with Tokyo’s 2.3 stores per 100,000 residents, yet Tokyo’s dense urban fabric means shoppers can access massive inventories, such as Shinjuku’s Disk Union flagship, effectively eight hyper‑specific stores in one. Melbourne’s “Collingwood‑Fitzroy corridor” hosts 19 stores within 2.5 km², many stocking Japanese imports. The Market Numbers: Growing Spend on VinylAustralian consumers spent $44.5 million on vinyl in 2024, a 5.6% increase from the previous year, with vinyl accounting for 72.8% of physical‑media revenue. Independent labels like Butter Sessions and Efficient Space rely on vinyl releases to supplement modest streaming income. The Cultural Value of Vinyl: Beyond ProfitArtists view vinyl as a cultural badge rather than pure advertisement. Corey Kikos of Sleep D describes vinyl as a “loss leader” that bestows relevance, while local fairs such as the Independent Music Exchange on 7 June at Northcote Town Hall bring together over 50 independent labels. The Outlook: Can Melbourne Sustain Its Vinyl Crown?Melbourne’s claim rests on per‑capita store counts, but true dominance may depend on inventory depth, consumer spending trends, and the ability of independent labels to navigate rising production costs. Continued community events and inclusive curation could cement the city’s reputation, even as global comparisons evolve.

Lead: Brazil's turbulent road to the 2026 World CupAfter a historic home defeat to Argentina and a series of losses to regional rivals, Brazil secured qualification despite a political crisis at the CBF and the sacking of Dorival Jr. The appointment of veteran coach Carlo Ancelotti in May 2025 revived hopes for a competitive tournament run.Coaching overhaul and tactical shift under Carlo AncelottiAncelotti, aged 66 (turning 67 just before the tournament), has installed a classic 4‑2‑4 formation, emphasizing attacking width and counter‑attacking pace. Injuries to key defenders Eder Militão, Rodrygo and Estêvão force the midfield to shoulder defensive duties, while the lack of high‑level full‑backs raises concerns given Brazil’s legacy of players like Cafu and Roberto Carlos.Key player roster and injury concernsNeymar – selected in the 26‑man squad but nursing a calf injury that could keep him out of the starting XI or the tournament entirely.Vinícius Júnior – slated to wear the iconic No 10 shirt; his pace and dribbling are central to Brazil’s counter‑attack strategy.Endrick – emerging talent from Lyon with 12 goal contributions in 17 Ligue 1 games; likely to be a decisive impact sub.Gabriel Magalhães – core centre‑back expected to anchor the defence amid a shortage of elite full‑backs.Alisson – veteran goalkeeper whose saves will be crucial given the attacking emphasis.Group C fixture schedule and logistical advantage for Brazilian fansBrazil’s group matches are all staged in the United States, aligning with the estimated 2.8 million Brazilians residing there:13 June – vs Morocco in New York (6 pm local, 11 pm BST)19 June – vs Haiti in Philadelphia (8.30 pm local, 1.30 am BST)24 June – vs Scotland in Miami (6 pm local, 11 pm BST)The proximity of venues to major Brazilian diaspora hubs is expected to generate massive supporter turnouts, potentially influencing match atmosphere.Strategic implications for Brazil's World Cup campaignThe combination of Ancelotti’s attacking philosophy and the squad’s injury constraints forces Brazil to rely on swift transitions and individual brilliance, particularly from Vinícius Júnior and the emerging Endrick. Defensive solidity will hinge on Gabriel Magalhães and the midfield’s ability to cover for absent full‑backs.Outlook: What to watch as Brazil heads to the tournamentKey indicators will be Neymar’s fitness, the effectiveness of the 4‑2‑4 system against varied opposition, and Endrick’s impact off the bench. If Brazil can harness its fan base in North America and mitigate defensive frailties, they remain a strong contender for the title despite a rocky qualification journey.

The Rise of AI-generated History Influencers “I have just arrived in Tudor London, 1536,” a young woman in a green puffer jacket tells the camera. “I’m going to check in at my room in the inn, get into the market. Then, later I am meeting the actual king – yep, Henry VIII – in person.” On YouTube and other social platforms, users are flocking to watch AI-generated “history influencers”, characters that vlog their travels to historical settings. The Popularity of Chloe VS History One of the most popular channels is Chloe VS History, with more than 610,000 Instagram followers and 15m views on YouTube. Viewers can watch Chloe try eel pie at a Tudor market, explore the first-class suites on the Titanic and take a plunge in an ancient Roman bath. The format has been replicated by other channels, such as Janella Through Time, Nova VS History and Esmetimetravels. Popular destinations include ancient Rome, Pompeii, the wild west and England during the Black Death. The Creator's Vision The creator of Chloe VS History, 32-year-old Jonathan Laramy, said the goal was to “get younger people more interested” in different periods of history. “History is a very visual experience, but it’s just not taught that way,” he said. “It’s taught via a textbook. And that is not compatible with lots of students. So why not use the technology we have to bring that to life in a really visceral way? The Impact on History Education Adam Smith, a historian at Oxford University, believes the format could “massively enhance” how history is taught to young people. “What these AI [videos] are doing is connecting with that visceral, tangible sense of: ‘Oh my God, that could have been me, that was an earlier version of me.’ It’s quite a deep-seated psychological need in many people, to understand themselves in time.”

The LeadIndia's Zee Entertainment is in talks with FIFA to stream and broadcast the 2026 World Cup in the country, the company announced in a statement. The announcement comes as talks between a Reliance-Disney joint venture and the football body are at a deadlock, just weeks before the tournament kicks off on June 11.The Broadcast Rights BattleFIFA has concluded agreements with broadcasters in more than 180 territories globally, but India remains without a confirmed broadcaster. Zee Entertainment disclosed its talks with FIFA as part of its launch of Unite8 Sports, a dedicated portfolio of sports channels to strengthen its sports offerings to consumers. Sony also held talks but decided not to make an offer for FIFA rights for India.The Market ValueFIFA, which had initially sought $100m for broadcast rights for the 2026 and 2030 World Cups in India, was last looking for no less than about $60m, according to Reuters. The expected amount still far exceeds the $20m offered by Reliance-Disney, led by billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance. This significant valuation gap has contributed to the current deadlock in negotiations.The Indian Football AudienceIndia accounted for 2.9 percent of the global linear TV reach of the Qatar World Cup in 2022, trailing only China in overall engagement figures. The country had more than 745 million fans following the action across all media platforms, according to figures released by FIFA. In television viewing numbers, India was among the top 10 countries – ahead of World Cup participants Germany, France and England – with nearly 84 million viewers.The Future OutlookWith the World Cup just weeks away, Zee Entertainment's potential entry as a broadcast partner could reshape the sports media landscape in India. The company's Unite8 Sports initiative signals a strategic push into sports content, capitalizing on India's massive football audience. If successful, this deal could establish a new benchmark for sports broadcasting rights in the Indian market and potentially influence future negotiations for other major sporting events.

The Final Private Push: Anthropic Secures $65 BillionAnthropic has closed a monumental Series H funding round, raising $65 billion at a $965 billion post-money valuation. This capital injection represents the startup's largest private fundraising effort to date and signals that the company is likely in its final pre-IPO stage. The round brings the company's total capital raised to a staggering level, positioning it as a heavyweight contender in the generative AI sector just as public markets begin to open up to high-growth technology companies.The Infrastructure and Investor EcosystemThe funding round was co-led by a consortium of elite institutional investors, including Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia Capital. Notably, the round saw participation from major infrastructure partners such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, highlighting the critical role hardware manufacturers are playing in the AI supply chain.Strategic Backing: Hyperscalers committed $15 billion, including a significant $5 billion from Amazon.Investor Demand: The round was highly competitive, with one institutional investor reportedly pledging up to $5 billion just to secure a meeting with the CFO.Use of Funds: Proceeds will be directed toward advancing safety research, expanding compute infrastructure, and scaling enterprise products.Valuation Wars and Revenue TrajectoryThis funding round places Anthropic at the epicenter of a fierce valuation war in the AI industry. The company's massive valuation comes as it reports a $47 billion revenue run rate and expects a 130% revenue surge to achieve its first operating profit. This financial performance contrasts sharply with the broader tech sector, illustrating the intense demand for high-performance AI models.Competitive Landscape: Anthropic's valuation rivals OpenAI, which raised $122 billion in March at an $852 billion valuation.Market Positioning: The company is reportedly preparing to launch models comparable to its powerful cybersecurity model, Mythos, which has been limited due to safety concerns.The Strategic Shift Toward Enterprise SafetyThe inclusion of infrastructure partners like Samsung and SK Hynix suggests a strategic pivot toward vertical integration. By securing hardware support, Anthropic ensures a stable supply chain for the compute-intensive models it is developing, such as the newly released Claude Opus 4.8. This model emphasizes agentic tasks, advanced coding, and self-correction capabilities, addressing a critical need for enterprises seeking reliable and safe AI solutions.The IPO Countdown and Market DominanceWith this massive capital raise and the release of advanced models, Anthropic is poised to lead the next phase of AI innovation. The company's ability to attract top-tier institutional investors and secure hardware partnerships positions it uniquely ahead of its IPO. As the race for AI dominance heats up, Anthropic's valuation and growth trajectory suggest it will be a key player in shaping the future of the public AI market.

Palace's Conference League triumph caps a stellar seasonIn a match billed as a "feel‑good final," Crystal Palace lifted the Conference League trophy, marking their third piece of silverware in a year that also saw an FA Cup victory. The win underscores the club's rising financial clout compared with their working‑class rivals, Rayo Vallecano, who remain trophy‑less after 102 years.Conference League final: Palace defeat Rayo VallecanoThe Tin Pot decider at the Red Bull Arena ended with Palace prevailing, thanks to a decisive strike from Jean‑Philippe Mateta. Rayo’s supporters displayed stoic resilience, unfurling a banner that read, "I know no greater victory than to be with you in defeat."Venue: Red Bull Arena, BudapestDate: 27 May 2026Scoreline: Palace 1‑0 Rayo VallecanoKey player: Jean‑Philippe Mateta (match‑winning goal)Financial and squad implications of the third trophyPalace’s "vastly superior financial heft" has allowed them to assemble a squad capable of competing on multiple fronts. The victory adds to a cabinet that previously held only a Kent Senior Cup, signalling a shift in the club’s revenue streams from prize money, merchandising, and increased broadcast share.Estimated prize money for the Conference League win: £20 millionProjected increase in season ticket sales for 2026‑27: +12%Potential market value uplift for key players (Mateta, Wharton, Lacroix): +15‑20%What the win means for Palace's standing in English footballThe triumph elevates Palace from a Premier League survival outfit to a genuine European contender. Manager Oliver Glasner received praise for his tactical acumen, while the club’s board is already being linked with high‑profile managerial candidates such as Andoni Iraola and former Coventry City boss Frank Lampard should Glasner depart.Future outlook: managerial moves and transfer market activityWith the summer window approaching, Palace faces a "massive scramble" for retained talents like Mateta, Adam Wharton, and Maxence Lacroix. Rumours suggest interest from larger clubs, meaning Palace must decide whether to cash in or build a squad capable of challenging for a Europa League spot.Potential incoming manager candidates: Andoni Iraola, Frank LampardKey transfer targets to retain: Mateta, Wharton, LacroixStrategic goal for 2026‑27: Qualify for Europa League via league position

The Strategic Shift in iOS 27Just ahead of Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June, leaked renders reveal a significant overhaul of the iPhone's interface, driven by a new generation of AI capabilities. The most visible change is the integration of Apple’s AI upgrade directly into the user experience, moving beyond simple voice commands to a comprehensive, card-style interface.The Dynamic Island as the AI Command CenterThe iconic black pill-shaped area at the top of the screen, known as the Dynamic Island, is set to become the central hub for AI interactions. While users can still trigger Siri via a button press, the primary mode of interaction will shift to the Dynamic Island. This allows for quick voice queries and searches, mimicking current usage patterns while offering a richer visual output.Furthermore, Apple is capitalizing on muscle memory by integrating AI-powered search into the swipe-down gesture. This feature, powered by a rebuilt AI model using Google's Gemini technology, allows users to search, launch apps, send messages, and manage calendar events directly from the search card.Scale as Apple's Competitive AdvantageApple’s primary weapon in this AI race is its sheer scale. With a total install base of 2.5 billion devices, Apple has an unmatched runway to introduce AI to users who have not yet adopted standalone tools like ChatGPT. While ChatGPT boasts 900 million weekly active users, Apple’s ecosystem offers a frictionless entry point for millions of new users.A Hybrid Approach to AI DevelopmentApple’s strategy mirrors its successful partnership with Google for search: leveraging external technology to meet immediate user demand while simultaneously developing proprietary solutions. By utilizing Google's Gemini under the hood for cloud-based intelligence and investing in local AI models for on-device processing, Apple aims to maintain its privacy-first brand without the prohibitive costs of building a massive AI infrastructure from scratch.The Standalone Chatbot ChallengerIn addition to system-wide integration, Apple is developing a dedicated Siri app designed to compete directly with market leaders like ChatGPT and Claude. This standalone application will feature past chat history, document uploads, and photo analysis, providing a robust alternative for users seeking advanced AI assistance.

The Rise of Recursive Self-Improvement in AIThe word "recursion" is the latest buzzword in AI circles. Two separate startups have taken on the name, and many more have started referencing recursive self-improvement (RSI) in their roadmaps. Like AGI before it, RSI has become a three-letter byword for a cataclysmic AI takeoff – even if there's still a little disagreement about what it exactly means.In basic terms, RSI refers to an AI system that can continuously upgrade itself. Once AI systems can manage the upgrade cycle better than humans, the process can become a closed loop, limited only by the compute power they can access, and humans are no longer necessary or even helpful.Scary or not, that's a vision that a lot of AI labs are eager to chase.Key Players Pursuing Recursive SystemsEarlier this month, well-known AI researcher Richard Socher launched the aptly named Recursive Superintelligence with RSI as an explicit goal. "Our main focus is to build truly recursive, self-improving superintelligence at scale," Socher told TechCrunch at launch, "which means that the entire process of ideation, implementation, and validation of research ideas would be automatic."A number of other prominent researchers are already chasing that same goal, hoping for a breakthrough that will make recursive self-improvement possible.One of the most prominent is Andrej Karpathy, a legendary figure from Tesla and OpenAI, who is using agent swarms to train LLMs on simple tasks for a project he calls Auto-Research. Karpathy has been unusually open about the project, tweeting about milestones regularly and making the building blocks available through a public GitHub repo. So far, the work has mostly been confined to making minor improvements on a GPT-2 scale model — as Karpathy noted in March, "It's not novel, ground-breaking 'research' (yet)" — but it's been enough to convince lots of other researchers to follow the RSI dream. And with Karpathy now working on pre-training at Anthropic, he will have plenty of opportunity to apply the idea at a larger scale.Adaption — founded by Cohere and Google alum Sara Hooker — recently launched a similar tool called AutoScientist in an effort to automate frontier training. Like Karpathy's auto-researchers, the system trains agents to make incremental improvements — but for Adaption, the goal is to make it easier to train a full-scale frontier model. If those same researchers start to push the frontier forward, the system could quickly spiral into something very much like RSI.Disarray founder Doris Xin drew more specific RSI interest when her self-trained machine learning agent took home 28 medals in a recent Kaggle competition, beating out many human-trained agents. As she sees it, the major challenge is reliability."I would argue, given infinite compute and infinite time horizon, we are already there," Xin told me. "I want to make an argument that this is not a creative endeavor, really. It's just a lot of meat-and-potatoes engineering."The Current State of Self-Improving AIThere's also plenty of evidence that the AI industry isn't very close to recursive systems in any meaningful way — and is still grappling with talking to a wary public about its progress. So Google CEO Sundar Pichai basically admitted in a recent podcast interview."It's a continuum, and we are all definitely making progress," Pichai said. "But in the way people describe RSI, that would represent a next level of acceleration and would have a lot of implications, but we aren't quite there yet."But the continuum includes an awful lot of self-improving AI systems.In January, one of Anthropic's lead programmers for Claude Code estimated that "close to 100%" of his team's code was written by the tool — a frank admission that Claude Code was literally writing itself.Just because engineers are using an AI tool doesn't mean the tool can replace them — but Anthropic seems to be getting close to replacing engineers too. In a recent survey tied to the Mythos preview, five out of 18 Anthropic engineers believed that, with harness improvements, this version of Mythos could soon substitute for an L4 engineer — a midlevel programmer who can take on involved projects without supervision.Still, there were some of the same weaknesses you might expect."Some of Claude's major reported weaknesses compared to an L4 include: self-managing week-long ambiguous tasks, understanding org priorities, taste, verification, instruction-following, and epistemics," the report reads.In other words, its weaknesses are everything involved with self-direction, which is the cornerstone for RSI. But sure, for everything else, Claude is ready to step right in.Expert Perspectives on RSI TimelinesJust like the AGI term before it, the AI industry also can't tell us how far away it is from showcasing a meaningful recursive system. When Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology assembled a group of experts to study RSI last year, the group found a major split in assessments — some expecting an imminent "superintelligence" style explosion while others expected slower progress and an eventual plateau. But all agreed that recursion made the future especially difficult to predict.Helen Toner, director of CSET and a former board member at OpenAI, told TechCrunch that simply using AI tools to do AI research isn't enough to qualify as RSI. "They're just using AI for as much as they can," Toner told TechCrunch. "And I think that is different from the classic definition of RSI, which is really that there are no humans needed."Toner pointed to a recent post by METR's Ajeya Cotra, which distinguishes different milestones on the path to the AI research takeover. One step, which Cotra calls "adequacy," would come when the system can still perform research after all humans are removed — even if the resulting research isn't as valuable or efficient. "Parity" comes when an AI-only system is as good at research as a human-only system. "Supremacy," the final stage, comes when an AI-only system outperforms a collaborative system between humans and AI.Ultimately, Cotra concludes that AI is very close to the adequacy threshold of being able to produce some work on its own — similar to the incremental changes made by Karpathy's Auto-Research system. "I wouldn't be totally shocked if you told me this milestone had already passed, and I expect it to happen in the next couple years," Cotra wrote.She was less clear on when parity will come, but once it does, she thinks it would "massively accelerate the pace of AI progress, leading to AI research supremacy within another year."The Challenges Ahead for Recursive AIWith so much of AI built on scaling laws, there's a strong tendency to think RSI will follow the same curve. Toner thinks that many of those pursuing AI research and development via RSI "think of it as a pretty smooth ladder, where you can just keep scaling up."But even if AI researchers are able to make incremental improvements like Karpathy's auto-researchers, there will be larger challenges in handing off the whole process of research. Toner put it in terms of the history of computing, which has seen human beings handing off more and more of the process while still directing things from the top."We went from machine languages to assembly language and compiled languages; you're getting further and further from the guts of the computer," Toner said. "But the human is still, in some intuitive sense, running the show."Moving beyond that paradigm will take significant challenges, both in engineering and alignment. But even with the massive investments happening, there's no infinite compute available — and the basic trade-off between human labor and machine intelligence will be hard to overcome.The Future of Recursive Self-ImprovementAs for a total recursive AI system of apocalyptic visions? The only thing researchers essentially agree on is that, like AGI, it's not here yet.