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In the first three months of 2026, the United States’ six biggest banks collectively generated $47.4 bn in net profit, edging close to the $50 bn mark. The earnings surge reflects a sharp rise in trading activity as market participants scrambled for safety after the US‑Israeli offensive against Iran sparked a wave of volatility. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley led the pack with profit jumps of 17% and 30% respectively, while Goldman Sachs posted a 19% increase. JPMorgan Chase reported a 13% rise to $16.5 bn, Citi posted a striking 42% jump to $5.8 bn, and Wells Fargo added a modest 7% gain to reach $5.3 bn. Chief Executive David Solomon of Goldman Sachs described the results as a “very strong performance … even as market conditions became more volatile,” noting that the shift in client behavior toward cash‑preserving strategies boosted fee‑based trading revenue. Meanwhile, Bank of America’s CEO Brian Moynihan cautioned that the board remains “watchful of evolving risks,” acknowledging the broader uncertainty surrounding the Middle‑East conflict. The conflict has disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing energy prices higher and feeding inflationary pressures. The International Monetary Fund responded by trimming its 2026 US growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3%, warning that a deeper escalation could trigger a global recession, especially for net energy importers and developing economies. Higher borrowing costs and inflation expectations have dampened demand for loans and mortgages, potentially curbing future investment‑banking fees tied to mergers and acquisitions. Yet, the immediate impact on trading desks has been lucrative, prompting banks to return cash to shareholders. JPMorgan set a quarterly record with a $8.3 bn share‑buyback, Bank of America followed with $7.2 bn, Citi spent $6.3 bn—its biggest buyback in two decades—while Goldman, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley allocated $5 bn, $4 bn and $1.8 bn respectively. Analysts view the earnings surge as a short‑term windfall that may not be sustainable if the geopolitical tension persists. Prolonged conflict could suppress corporate earnings, reduce merger activity, and ultimately erode the trading‑driven profit model that has underpinned this quarter’s success.

Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sharply criticized President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for the Federal Reserve to slash borrowing costs, likening the approach to the fiscal tactics of a “banana republic.”Trump has publicly urged the central bank to deliver the lowest interest rate in the world, arguing that cheaper financing would ease the service burden on the United States’ staggering $39 trillion debt.Speaking at an HSBC investor summit in Hong Kong, Yellen asked, “How often does the president of a developed country demand that interest rates be set to reduce debt‑service costs? This is what you hear in a banana republic.” She warned that such political meddling could unleash inflation if the Fed’s independence is compromised.The Fed, under Chair Jerome Powell, last lowered its policy rate in December to a range of 3.5 %–3.75 %. However, policymakers are growing uneasy about inflationary pressures, especially as the ongoing Iran conflict threatens oil supplies.Powell is slated to step down next month, but his successor—Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh—has yet to secure Senate confirmation. Powell has indicated he will remain in his role if a replacement is not confirmed, and he may continue as a Fed governor until a pending Department of Justice investigation concludes.Trump has openly dismissed the idea of Powell staying on, telling Fox Business that he would “have to fire him” if the chair does not leave. Powell, for his part, describes the DOJ probe as a “pretext” aimed at pressuring the Fed to cut rates.Warsh, who argues that potential productivity gains from artificial intelligence could justify lower rates, faces skepticism from Yellen, who doubts he commands the same respect as former Fed chair Alan Greenspan. She noted, “Greenspan was widely respected for his expertise; I don’t think Warsh walks in with that level of credibility.”Trump’s broader effort to reshape the Fed board includes an attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook, who is currently facing a Supreme Court case over alleged mortgage fraud.Meanwhile, finance ministers and central bankers have gathered in Washington for the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that rising oil prices, driven by the Iran conflict, constitute a “major supply shock” that central banks must assess carefully.The IMF has cautioned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global recession, underscoring the interconnected risks of geopolitical tensions, sovereign debt, and monetary policy decisions.

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, has stated that a potential downturn in the $3tn private credit market would not pose a significant threat to the stability of major banks. According to Dimon, while there are areas of weakness in the unregulated private credit industry, it does not present a 'systemic' risk to the financial system.Dimon made these comments during an earnings call on Tuesday, where he also noted that the actual credit quality had not deteriorated significantly, with only 'pockets' of weakness. He emphasized that very large losses in private credit would be needed before major banks were affected.The private credit market has faced growing concerns over potentially risky loans arranged by firms that lend to companies using investor money, outside the traditional regulated banking system. This has led to a multibillion-pound surge in withdrawals from some private credit funds, such as Blue Owl, which have had to cap the amount of money clients can withdraw.Despite these concerns, Dimon expressed that he is 'not particularly worried' about the impact on major banks. JP Morgan reported a 13% jump in first-quarter profits to $16.5bn, with revenues rising 10% to $49.8bn.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning that a further escalation in the Iran war could lead to a global recession, spiralling inflation, and a sharp backlash in financial markets. The Washington-based fund cited the economic damage from the Middle East conflict as steadily rising, prompting it to cut its growth forecasts for 2026.In its half-yearly update, the IMF predicted that the UK would suffer the sharpest growth downgrade and joint highest inflation rate in the G7 this year. Even if the fallout from soaring energy costs can be contained by the middle of 2026, the fund warned of a close call for a global recession under a worst-case 'severe scenario'.This severe scenario, involving a drawn-out war and persistently higher energy prices, would see the world face a global recession for only the fifth time since 1980. Oil prices jumped back above $100 (£74) a barrel on Monday amid choppy trading in global markets. The IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that despite a temporary ceasefire, some damage is already done, and downside risks remain elevated.The IMF set out three possible scenarios for the war in its World Economic Outlook (WEO), including a central 'reference forecast' based on the assumption that disruption to the world economy from the war fades by mid-2026. This forecast predicts global growth would fall from 3.4% last year to 3.1% in 2026, a downgrade of 0.1 percentage points.Under the adverse scenario, with the global oil price remaining at $100 this year before falling back to $75 in 2027, growth would fall to 2.5% this year, and inflation would rise to 5.4%. In the severe scenario, with a lengthier, intensive war keeping the oil price above $110 into 2027, global growth would collapse to about 2%, a threshold widely seen as equivalent to a worldwide recession.The IMF urged countries to stage a coordinated response to the economic fallout from the war and called on central banks to remain vigilant. It also advised governments to focus on temporary and targeted measures to support businesses and households.

HSBC’s chief executive, Georges Elhedery, told Bloomberg Television at a conference in Hong Kong that the ongoing Iran war is undermining global economic confidence. He warned that the conflict’s duration could amplify price pressures on commodities such as oil, refined products, fertilisers and metals, extending the impact far beyond the Middle East. Brent crude, which had briefly risen above $100 per barrel, slipped 0.9% to $98.5 per barrel after a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports took effect. Negotiations between the United States and Iran are set to resume in Islamabad, but no agreement was reached in the previous talks. In London, the FTSE 100 edged up 22 points (0.21%) to 10,605, even as Imperial Brands led the losers, citing a “more uncertain geopolitical and macro environment.” The UK recruitment firm PageGroup warned that the Middle East conflict is creating an “increasingly uncertain outlook” for the rest of the year, with salaries lagging behind 2022‑2023 levels across the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. HSBC holds a 31% stake in Saudi Awwal Bank, making it one of the European banks most exposed to the region, which contributes roughly 4% of its pre‑tax profit according to JP Morgan analysts. Nevertheless, Elhedery noted that capital outflows from the Middle East have been “very benign” so far. Since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran on 28 February, some affluent Middle‑Eastern investors have started exploring relocation to financial hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong. HSBC chair Brendan Nelson stressed that a peace settlement is essential to restore global energy flows, warning that prolonged disruption would lift inflation and suppress growth. “The longer the disruption continues, the more the indirect effects from higher energy costs will lift inflation and depress growth,” he said at the HSBC Global Investment Summit. Manufacturers reliant on petroleum‑derived synthetic fabrics, such as sportswear maker Castore, reported cost increases of 10‑15% and warned that continued conflict could push those costs onto consumers. Co‑founder Tom Beahon described price volatility as “very difficult to plan,” with daily swings of up to 40%. Logistics are also strained: airlines have reduced flights and vessels remain stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, complicating product shipments. Castore hopes that a resolution in the coming weeks will limit the impact on customers. Virgin Atlantic chief executive Corneel Koster told the Financial Times that jet‑fuel prices have more than doubled since the war began, adding that “some of this disruption to global energy prices will be here to stay.” UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, speaking at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, called for coordinated economic action, stating that the Iran conflict must become “a line in the sand” for how the world handles crises and instability.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers released an analysis estimating that the United States faces a shortage of roughly 10 million homes. The report argues that easing regulatory burdens could unlock a construction surge, stabilise home prices, expand home‑ownership and accelerate overall economic growth. President Donald Trump signed two executive orders in March directing federal agencies to reduce housing‑regulation costs and to facilitate mortgage lending by smaller banks. Yet, critics note that the administration has been slow to prioritize high housing costs amid falling approval ratings tied to tariffs, the US‑Israel conflict with Iran, and unmet inflation‑reduction promises. Mortgage rates have risen from just under 6 % to 6.37 % for a 30‑year loan, further inflating the cost of home purchase. Trump has publicly defended higher home prices to protect existing owners, stating, “I don’t want to drive housing prices down… I want to drive housing prices up for people that own their homes.” The housing chapter of the annual Economic Report of the President, obtained by the Associated Press, outlines a blueprint showing how increased homebuilding could benefit the middle class and the broader economy, providing a potential political narrative for the president. According to the report, if homebuilding had continued at its pre‑2008 pace, the nation would have **10 million more houses** today. The 2008 crisis, driven by risky lending and a housing bubble, still casts a long shadow. Home prices have surged **82 % since 2000**, while median incomes have risen only **12 %**, a disparity previously softened by historically low mortgage rates. The post‑COVID inflation spike and higher rates have made affordability a top concern for voters under 40. Regulatory costs—dubbed the “bureaucrat tax”—are estimated to add **over $100,000 per new home** through updated building codes, compliance fees and zoning approvals. The report projects that trimming these costs could enable the construction of **up to 13.2 million homes**, potentially delivering an **average 1.3 percentage‑point boost to annual GDP** over the next decade and supporting **two million manufacturing and construction jobs**. One administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, suggested that federal funding to states could be tied to regulatory reductions, creating a financial incentive for local governments. The analysis also criticises the green‑energy housing standards introduced under former President Joe Biden, which mandate more efficient HVAC systems and water‑heater requirements. Citing a 2021 National Association of Home Builders study, the report claims these standards could add **up to $31,000** to a new home’s price, with a **payback period of up to 90 years** for homeowners via lower utility bills. While rolling back such standards might lower upfront costs, the report acknowledges potential long‑term utility‑bill increases for owners. Legal challenges further complicate the picture: a Texas federal judge recently sided with 15 Republican‑led states, deeming the Biden‑era standards for federally backed housing **unlawful**. Overall, the White House’s proposal positions regulatory reform as a lever to address the housing deficit, stimulate economic growth, and generate jobs, while navigating the political and environmental trade‑offs inherent in the debate.

For the first time, thousands of cancer patients from Black and minority ethnic backgrounds will benefit from an enhanced genetic test offered by the NHS. The new screening expands the panel of DPYD gene variants from four to five, directly addressing a long‑standing bias that left non‑white patients vulnerable to dangerous chemotherapy side‑effects. In England, patients slated for chemotherapy undergo a genetic check that can guide dose adjustments and mitigate adverse reactions such as mouth sores, hair loss, nausea, fatigue, and, in severe cases, death. Up to 40% of the 38,000 individuals receiving fluoropyrimidine‑based chemotherapy each year experience a harmful drug reaction. Previously, the test only targeted four DPYD variants common in people of European descent, meaning many Black patients received inaccurate “all‑clear” results. The addition of a fifth variant—more prevalent among African, Caribbean and other minority groups—means clinicians can now identify patients at risk who were previously missed. Since its rollout at Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust last September, three minority‑ethnic patients have had their initial chemotherapy doses adjusted, lowering their chance of a potentially fatal reaction. Dr Veline L’Esperance, senior clinical adviser at the NHS Race and Health Observatory, called the change “tangible results for patients who have historically been left behind.” She emphasized that the update shifts the discussion on ethnic health inequality from rhetoric to actionable care. Prof Habib Naqvi, chief executive of the NHS Race and Health Observatory, described the development as a “groundbreaking outcome” for chemotherapy safety, while noting that ethnic minorities remain under‑represented in genomic research and biobanks. He warned that broader inclusion is essential for the promised benefits of precision medicine to reach all communities. Prof Dame Sue Hill, chief scientific officer for NHS England, highlighted the significance of discovering the fifth variant: “Personalising chemotherapy based on genetics can save lives and reduce harmful side‑effects, especially for patients of African ancestry.” She added that the North West NHS Genomic Medicine Service has already demonstrated the practical impact of this approach. These steps come amid broader evidence that minority patients in the UK face longer diagnostic waits, more GP visits before a cancer diagnosis, and lower perceived support during treatment. The expanded DPYD test represents a concrete effort to close those gaps and ensure equitable, science‑driven care for all cancer patients.

Goldman Sachs's chief executive, David Solomon, has expressed heightened awareness of the capabilities of Anthropic's Mythos AI model and is collaborating closely with the tech firm following warnings about the cybersecurity risk it poses.The US bank has been closely monitoring the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, including large language models (LLMs), as part of broader efforts to protect itself from hackers.“Obviously the LLMs are making rapid progress and we’re hyper-aware of the enhanced capabilities of these new models with the help of the US government and the model publishers,” Solomon told analysts on an earnings call on Monday.Anthropic, the company behind the Claude family of AI tools, claimed last week that its latest model, Mythos, posed an unprecedented risk due to its ability to expose flaws in IT systems. The company warned that AI models have reached a level of coding capability where they can surpass all but the most skilled humans at finding and exploiting software vulnerabilities.Solomon emphasized that Goldman Sachs is working closely with Anthropic and all of its security vendors to harness frontier capabilities. “We are very focused on supplementing our cyber and infrastructure resilience. And this is part of our ongoing capabilities that we have been investing in, and are accelerating our investment in.”The news comes after the US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, summoned Solomon and other big American bankers to Washington to discuss the Mythos model last week. The meeting focused on heads of so-called systemically important banks, where regulators believe that a major disruption to their operations, or their potential collapse, would put financial stability at risk.On Monday, the UK government’s AI Security Institute (AISI) warned that Mythos was a “step up” over previous models in terms of the cyber threat it posed. AISI said Mythos could carry out attacks that required multiple actions and discover weaknesses in IT systems without human intervention.

Acclaimed director Ken Loach revisits his 2016 film I, Daniel Blake, a poignant portrayal of poverty and the struggles faced by those in need. The film, which sparked controversy upon its release, shed light on the cruel realities of a system that vilifies the vulnerable.Loach reveals that the film was born out of a time of 'mean-spiritedness,' where those who needed support were met with punishment. The story follows Daniel Blake, a character who desperately wants to work but is thwarted by a system designed to fail him.The film's screenwriter, Paul Laverty, conducted extensive research, including a visit to a Glasgow food bank, where he encountered a young man who had not eaten in two to three days. This harrowing experience inspired a pivotal scene in the film, where Katie, played by Hayley Squires, is forced to eat cold baked beans from a tin.Loach notes that at the time of the film's release, the notion of food banks as an institution was unimaginable. However, food banks are now a normalized part of society, with many people relying on them to survive. The film's portrayal of poverty and hunger was met with resistance from some, including Damian Green, who claimed it was a work of fiction. Loach counters that while the characters are fictional, the stories are rooted in truth.Hayley Squires, who played Katie, shares her experience working on the film. She was drawn to the project after meeting Loach and was impressed by his authenticity and warmth. The film's shooting process was unique, with Squires and her co-star Dave Johns working chronologically and improvising scenes.Squires also recounts her preparation for the food bank scene, which included visiting a real food bank and cutting back on food to better understand the experience of hunger. The scene was shot only once, with Loach and the cinematographer Robbie Ryan working to create a sense of empathy and realism.