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The Guardian editorial argues that the UK must treat the plight of NEETs as a national priority, linking rising youth unemployment to inadequate training, housing costs and a fragmented policy framework.Milburn Commission Highlights Over 1 Million UK NEETsThe commission’s report, due in the autumn, shines a bright light on the 1 million young people aged 16‑24 who are not in education, employment or training. It criticises political attacks on welfare and “kids‑these‑days” rhetoric, insisting that the problem is fundamentally a policy failure.The Scale of the Crisis: Over 1 Million Young People Out of Work or Study1 million NEETs – roughly one in eight of the 16‑24 cohort.60 % are economically inactive, meaning they are not actively seeking work.Health‑related universal credit claims have risen in regions with fewer entry‑level jobs.Apprenticeship starts have fallen 35 % over the past decade.Why the UK Is Falling Behind Europe on Youth EmploymentCompared with other wealthy European nations, the UK records one of the highest rates of young people not in work or study. Contributing factors include:Housing inflation limiting independent living for young adults.Restrictive GCSE combinations that disadvantage less academic pupils.Chaotic further‑education reforms and the poorly‑implemented apprenticeship levy.Automation and AI‑driven profit growth that do not translate into entry‑level opportunities.A National Participation System: Pathway to Re‑engaging Young WorkersThe report proposes a new “participation system” that would coordinate work and pensions, health, education and business departments to pull young people into the labour market. While ambitious, the editorial stresses that without a clear, cross‑departmental mission the UK will continue to lose a generation to inactivity.

Anti‑immigrant anger is reaching a new peak in South Africa as municipal officials ordered the removal of makeshift camps that housed thousands of migrants, leaving them exposed on public streets. The move has ignited protests, a surge in xenophobic incidents, and a heated debate over the nation’s immigration policy. Escalating Xenophobic Tensions After Forced Evictions City councils in Johannesburg and surrounding townships issued eviction notices this week, citing health and safety concerns. Residents of the cleared camps report being given less than 24 hours to vacate, with many forced to sleep on sidewalks or in overcrowded shelters. Evictions began on 2026-05-25 across three major informal settlements. Local NGOs estimate that over 5,000 migrants were displaced. Community leaders claim the actions were taken without adequate consultation. Limited Data Highlights a Growing Crisis Official statistics on the displacement are scarce, but available reports point to a sharp rise in xenophobic activity: The South African Police Service logged a noticeable uptick in hate‑crime complaints in the past month. Human‑rights groups note an increase in verbal and physical attacks targeting foreign nationals. Economic analysts warn that prolonged unrest could deter foreign investment. Political Fallout and Social Cohesion at Risk The government’s response has split opinion. While some politicians defend the evictions as necessary for public order, opposition parties and civil‑society groups accuse the administration of stoking xenophobia. President Cyril Ramaphosa called for “orderly migration management” but avoided direct criticism of local authorities. Opposition leader John Steenhuisen demanded an immediate halt to evictions and a review of immigration policy. International bodies, including the UN, have urged South Africa to uphold the rights of migrants. Potential Policy Shifts and International Scrutiny Analysts predict that sustained pressure could force the government to adopt a more coordinated approach: Implementation of a national framework for temporary housing of displaced migrants. Increased funding for community‑integration programs to mitigate xenophobic sentiment. Possible sanctions or aid reductions from foreign partners if human‑rights violations continue. Until concrete measures are taken, the risk of further unrest remains high, and South Africa’s reputation as a regional hub for trade and tourism could suffer.

The Scope of the UK’s Youth Exclusion CrisisAlan Milburn, the Blair-era cabinet minister turned social mobility adviser, has delivered the first part of his government-commissioned report on why increasing numbers of people aged 16 to 24 are not in education, employment or training (Neet). The 217-page document paints a damning picture of a 'record of failure' that is letting down a generation.The report highlights that about 1 million young people across the UK are not in jobs, training or education—roughly one in eight. It notes that the UK’s Neet rate is now worse than all but one EU nation, with only Romania ranking lower. The issue is also becoming more entrenched, with six in 10 Neet young people having never held a single job.Economic Cost and Regional DisparitiesMilburn warns of a 'lost generation' with severe economic consequences. The cumulative cost of this issue is estimated at £125bn. The report also reveals stark geographical divides; for example, 1% of 16- and 17-year-olds in Barnet, north London, are Neet, compared to 21.5% in Dudley, West Midlands. Of the top 10 local authorities with the highest Neet rates, eight are in the north or Midlands.Structural Inequality and the Health CrisisThe analysis identifies structural inequality as a primary driver, linking Neet status to background, geography, and ethnicity. Health issues, particularly mental health, are described as central to the problem. Young people in this state are now more likely to be economically inactive (53%) than unemployed (47%). The report criticizes the NHS for categorizing young people as unable to work rather than helping them return to it, singling out the 'fit note' system as a failure.Systemic Reforms Needed to Break the CycleThe report suggests that the social security system is failing to support reintegration, noting that for every £25 spent on benefits, only £1 goes toward helping young people back into work. Furthermore, the labour market is becoming hostile to young entrants due to AI recruitment filters and a lack of entry-level roles. To prevent a permanent underclass, the government must address the fragmented support system and housing instability.

The UK's Dual Economic Crisis: A Lost Generation and Housing FreezeThe UK economy is currently navigating a precarious convergence of two distinct but equally damaging trends: a looming youth unemployment crisis and a housing market that has become virtually inaccessible to first-time buyers. These issues threaten to create a 'lost generation' of young people, trapping them between economic inactivity and the inability to build the financial foundations necessary for adulthood.The Milburn Review: Systemic Failure vs. Youth InactivityFormer Health Secretary Alan Milburn has released a scathing review of the UK's labour market, pinning the blame for rising youth unemployment squarely on systemic failures rather than individual shortcomings. His analysis warns that unless urgent intervention occurs, one in six young people (1.25 million) could be classified as NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) within five years.Milburn's Argument: He asserts that the current system is 'stuck in the past' and fails to enable youth participation in the labour market, often pushing young people onto benefits instead of jobs.The Decline of Entry-Level Roles: The review highlights the collapse of the 'Saturday job' culture and a significant drop in apprenticeship starts over the last decade.The 'Catch-22' Barrier: Milburn calls for employer incentives to break the cycle where employers demand work experience before offering employment.Housing Affordability: A Crisis Comparable to 2008Simultaneously, the housing market presents a formidable barrier to entry for young adults. David Thomas, the outgoing CEO of Barratt Redrow, has warned that first-time buyers are facing their toughest challenge since the 2008 financial crisis. Thomas attributes this to a 'perfect storm' of rising interest rates, student loan deductions, and stagnant real wages.'Certainly it’s going to be close to where we were [after] the great financial crisis... We’re now facing challenges around affordability with no government support scheme in place.'The Future Outlook: A Risk of Permanent ScarcityIf these trends continue unchecked, the UK risks entrenching a permanent underclass of economically inactive youth. The combination of a welfare state that may be exacerbating inactivity and a housing market devoid of government support schemes suggests a bleak trajectory for the next generation's economic mobility.

Blair's Policy-First Approach to Labour's FutureFormer Prime Minister Tony Blair has continued his critique of the Labour government, emphasizing that the party should prioritize "policy first, politics second" as it faces potential leadership changes. This comes after Blair published a scathing 5,700-word essay warning that Labour's "almost infinite capacity for self-delusion" makes it likely to lose the next election.Leadership Transition and Policy DirectionBlair specifically addressed Keir Starmer and his potential successors, Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting, urging Labour MPs to "force people to say where they stand" before supporting a leadership change. He emphasized that policy direction must be decided before any leadership transition, requiring all candidates to detail their policy positions, assess the government's performance, and outline alternative approaches.Blair's Policy RecommendationsIn his essay, Blair outlined several key policy recommendations for the Labour party:Crack down on welfare spendingAbandon restrictions on oil and gasEmbrace the technology and artificial intelligence revolutionSmooth relations with Donald TrumpHe stressed that the AI revolution represents the 21st-century equivalent of the Industrial Revolution and will change "absolutely everything," yet "it's not even part of the debate" within Labour.Economic Priorities and Political StrategyBlair argued that Labour won the last election primarily as an "acceptable alternative" to the Conservatives, but in current "hard times," the party must prioritize growth and support for the business sector. He warned that the country risks spending more on incapacity disability benefits than on defense, highlighting the need for fiscal restraint.When asked if his proposals aligned with Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch's platform, Blair dismissed traditional left-right categorizations, stating: "I don't really care whether it's left or right in a traditional sense... I'm not tribal in the sense that I think one political party is going to have the exclusive capability of deciding the right answer."Reactions to Blair's InterventionBlair's comments were not universally welcomed within Labour. York Central MP Rachael Maskell described the timing as "incredibly unhelpful" due to three parliamentary by-elections next month, noting that Blair "seems to be continuing the argument from back then rather than looking at the situation today."Treasury minister Dan Tomlinson countered that "things have moved on" since Blair's government, dismissing the New Labour vs Old Labour debate as a 1990s issue. He highlighted current government reforms, such as planning system changes aimed at increasing housing supply, as examples of progress beyond Blair's era.Future of Labour and the Radical CentreLooking ahead, Blair positioned himself as advocating for a "radical centre" that "must be the place of making big change, but it's based on policy first, politics second." This approach, he argued, offers the best path forward for a party seeking to reconnect with voters while addressing significant economic and technological transformations.Blair's intervention comes at a critical moment for Labour as it considers its direction amid challenging economic conditions and rapid technological change. The debate between policy substance and political positioning will likely shape the party's strategy for the upcoming election and beyond.

The LeadBritain is experiencing a profound political-economic churn as Andy Burnham's potential rise to power challenges the established economic order. The recent market reaction to Burnham's fiscal rule proposals reveals how deeply entrenched Britain's economic settlement has become and the formidable barriers facing any attempt to transform it.The Political-Economic Churn ExplainedBritain is currently experiencing two simultaneous churns. The first is electoral, evidenced by May's local elections where Labour lost roughly 1,100 councillors, Reform won 1,257 seats and 10 councils, and the Greens won Hackney and Lewisham. This fragmentation of the progressive vote has visibly weakened the container for transformative politics.The second churn is deeper, touching Britain's fundamental political economy. As Burnham noted, Britain has been 'on the wrong course for 40 years' – referring to the financialisation, privatisation, hollowed-out public services and wealth transfer that have characterized the late 1970s to present economic settlement.The Fiscal Rules BattleBurnham's potential project requires a state capable of funding major social-democratic initiatives: council homes, clean energy, public transport, water, skills and resilience. These ambitions collide with Rachel Reeves's fiscal rules – self-imposed borrowing limits that are political choices, not laws of nature.Three weeks ago, Burnham tested these boundaries by proposing a 'defence carve-out' allowing extra borrowing for defense outside fiscal rules, similar to Germany's approach. The subsequent market reaction – pound pressure, rising gilt yields, warnings against public ownership of Thames Water – forced a retreat. Burnham's team subsequently announced he would make no changes to Reeves's fiscal rules if he became prime minister.Market Discipline and PowerThe retreat reveals how power operates in Britain's economic architecture. It's not merely 'the markets' but Treasury rules, Bank of England decisions, pension fund structures and investor expectations that combine to discipline any politics threatening the established settlement.Chancellors have always rewritten fiscal rules when convenient – Gordon Brown had his golden rule, George Osborne his surplus target, Philip Hammond and Rishi Sunak revised frameworks, Jeremy Hunt and Reeves changed them again. The crucial question is who gets to change them and for what purpose.The Three Progressive FightsProgressives now face three critical battles. First, fiscal: democracy must regain power to invest based on national need rather than market nerves. This requires a Bank of England mandate recognizing that inflation stems from both excessive demand and insufficient capacity.Second, ownership: public goods should be built and owned in the public interest. Thames Water entering special administration offers a starting point, with regional public housing corporations potentially building at scale on public land.Third, constitutional: proportional representation for Westminster, an elected second chamber and deeper devolution are not procedural details but essential conditions for progressive power in a fragmented country. PR could allow a broad progressive majority to govern together against established forces.Burnham was right: Britain has been on the wrong course for 40 years. But last week demonstrated the harder truth – the old settlement will not politely bow out. It will price risk, police boundaries and demand reassurance before the argument even begins. The churn is far from over.

The Grim Reality of a Heatwave-Prone Britain If you think the temperature is uncomfortable today, let me take you to the last day of July 2052, where the rays of the climbing sun reveal a city still sweltering in the residual heat of the day before. From the air, London resembles a colossal refugee camp. Streets, gardens and parks are teeming with tents and cobbled-together shelters, within which the city’s residents have spent another uncomfortable night away from the heat traps that their houses and flats have become. After six days when the temperature peaked at about 40C, another scorcher is on the way. The Consequences of Inaction Half-hearted attempts to upgrade insulation across the country’s housing stock ran out of steam and cash decades earlier, and most homes still have few barriers to the infiltrating heat. Almost all the country’s electricity is now from renewables, which has brought the cost down, but the relentless onslaught of extreme weather has driven an ever-deepening economic depression across the world. Many now have air conditioning, but can’t afford to run it. The Data Analysis: A Future of Water Rationing and Food Shortages Water rationing across the south-east of England due to a succession of dry winters and a spring drought. Failed harvests at home in the previous two years, and massively reduced food imports, leading to the rationing of bread and other staples. Every hospital is overwhelmed as the incessant heat and humidity take their toll on vulnerable people, the old and the very young. The Impact Analysis: A Nation Unprepared The UK Climate Change Committee flagged last week in its latest report to the government that our country is not built to handle such heat and its all-pervasive ramifications. More than nine in 10 homes are not well insulated enough to keep out the heat, while by 2050 there is forecast to be a daily shortfall in water supply of 5bn litres. The Prediction: A Future of Increased Hardship Bearing in mind that we continue to pump out CO2 equivalent to the weight of 800,000 Titanics every year, and fossil fuel corporations are actively planning to expand operations, it is practically impossible for emissions reductions to happen fast enough to reduce the rate at which our world is heating. Consequently, 40C-plus mid-century heat in the UK is now baked in. We need, then, to face the fact that life in the 2050s is going to be very different from today, and act now.

The Looming Family Crisis in the UK The UK is facing a family crisis that politicians do not discuss enough. Birth rates are at an all-time low, and many young people are delaying or choosing not to have children due to the high cost of raising them. The cost of raising a child to 18 is over £250,000, and childcare costs have risen faster than wages. Government Investment in Childcare The government is investing a record £9.5bn in childcare this year, with over 80% of childcare spending funded by the government. The expansion of 30 hours funded childcare in England has saved eligible families an average of £8,000 per year per child, benefiting over 530,000 families. The Financial Burden of Childcare Despite this investment, many parents still struggle with hidden charges, restricted hours, and excessive deposits. The number of nurseries backed by private equity firms has doubled, with profits of over £1 for every £5 spent, raising concerns about the prioritization of profits over children's needs. Government Action and Future Plans The government has asked the Competition and Markets Authority to investigate whether the childcare market is working fairly for parents. A new service on the Best Start in Life website will help parents access childcare support, estimate costs, and find providers in their area. The government aims to enable people to live the lives they want, including having a family, by addressing the challenges of affordable childcare, housing, and workplace flexibility. The Road Ahead The decision to start or grow a family is influenced by various pressures, including the cost of living crisis, housing insecurity, and work-life balance. The government is taking a comprehensive approach to support families, including building more homes, strengthening renters' rights, and making workplaces more family-friendly. Affordable childcare is essential for children's well-being, parents' employment, and families' confidence in their future.

Executive Summary: Political Fault Lines Threaten Global FinanceThe article warns that the United States, burdened by a debt level exceeding 120% of GDP and a politically‑driven policy environment, is steering the world toward a financial crisis that could eclipse the 2007 housing collapse.Political Gridlock and Debt Accumulation Push US Toward Financial ShockCurrent US politics, described as “practically guarantee[d] misguided policy responses,” are dominated by Donald Trump and a Congress aligned with his agenda. Former IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld is quoted saying “the political fundamentals are really bad.” The article outlines several plausible pathways, including a sharp correction in AI‑driven equity valuations and a sudden sell‑off of Treasury bonds.Debt‑to‑GDP Surpasses 120% and Bond Market Volatility Signals StressFederal debt now stands at over 120% of GDP, a near‑unprecedented figure.Recent market turbulence pushed Treasury yields higher after geopolitical worries (Iran war) and inflation concerns.Historical reference: on 3 April 2025, Trump‑imposed tariffs caused a brief “tailspin” in Treasury prices.Global Ripple Effects: China’s Capital Flows and European VulnerabilitiesThe US’s need for foreign capital is met by China’s surplus‑driven investments, creating a feedback loop where Chinese earnings are reinvested in US Treasury securities while American dollars fund Chinese imports. The article also flags similar political‑driven fiscal risks in France, where a budget crisis and upcoming elections could amplify the global shock.Possible Scenarios and the Likelihood of Policy MisstepsInvestor panic leads to a mass sell‑off of Treasuries, spiking rates and forcing the Fed to purchase debt, which could reignite inflation.Trump leverages control over the Federal Reserve to keep rates artificially low, undermining monetary credibility.Absence of fiscal reform in Congress, as suggested by Obstfeld, leaves the debt trajectory unchecked.In each scenario, the combination of high debt, politicised monetary policy, and strained international cooperation could produce a crisis “unlike anything the world has seen.”