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The Failed Dealmaker: Trump's Iran Dilemma For weeks, Donald Trump has tried to find a way to end the war he started with Iran – a deal that would allow him to declare victory and move past the conflict before it causes severe damage to the global economy and sinks Republican chances in the US midterm elections. But the self-proclaimed master dealmaker can't seem to stop sabotaging his own negotiations or to acknowledge that Iran is now in a better position to demand concessions than it was before the war. Strategic Missteps: From Military Action to Negotiation Deadlock Over the Memorial Day holiday, Trump skipped his eldest son's wedding in the Bahamas and canceled plans to spend the weekend at his New Jersey golf club. The last-minute changes heightened speculation that Trump was ready to unveil a deal to end the war. Trump then announced that he would hold a cabinet meeting at Camp David, the presidential compound in Maryland that has been the site of historic diplomatic summits. But that meeting was moved back to the White House, as it became clear that Trump had not been able to close a deal he could announce with great fanfare. The Art of the Deal: Trump's Negotiation Paradox Why has an agreement eluded the business titan who wrote the bestselling 1987 book The Art of the Deal? Trump admires strongman leaders and is loth to project any sign of weakness – and he's afraid of reaching a deal with Iran that makes him look weak. The president is also sensitive to criticism that any agreement he negotiates will be worse for the US than the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, which was brokered by Barack Obama's administration. Leverage Reversed: How Iran Gained the Upper Hand Trump's main problem is that Iran has more leverage than he does – and Iranian leaders are well aware of that advantage. On 28 February, Trump launched a joint US-Israeli war against Iran, killing the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other top military and political officials. But Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes against US military bases across the Middle East, and it targeted the energy infrastructure of its Gulf neighbors. Iran also deployed its most effective economic weapon: it closed the strait of Hormuz, through which more than a fifth of the world's oil supply passed each day. Economic Fallout: Global Disruption and Rising Oil Prices The closure of the Strait of Hormuz – along with Iranian attacks on pipelines and gas fields in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – disrupted the global economy and increased oil prices. In the US, average gas prices have jumped by 50%, up to nearly $4.50 per gallon, since Trump launched the war. Trump and his ally, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, could not topple the Islamic regime that rose to power after Iran's 1979 revolution. Instead, they ended up strengthening it – by allowing Tehran to deploy its geographic control of the strait of Hormuz into a weapon that could instigate a global energy crisis and a worldwide recession. The Emerging Deal: Limited Concessions and Unresolved Issues The emerging deal is focused on solving a problem that didn't exist before Trump started this war: fully reopening the strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping so that oil prices can stabilize. Under a draft agreement being circulated to US allies, Washington would also lift its blockade of Iranian ports and allow Tehran to access about $12bn in frozen assets. Once again, Trump seems to be aiming for a limited deal with Iran that defers the most difficult questions to future talks, which could drag out for months or even years. Iran's Resilience: Military Strength Preserved In some ways, Iran has emerged stronger after a war intended to decimate its military capabilities. A CIA report sent to Trump earlier this month found that Tehran had managed to retain a significant part of its missile capabilities. The analysis said Iran preserved about 70% of its prewar stockpile of missiles and about 75% of its mobile launchers. The report also concluded that Iran was more resilient than US officials had claimed, and it could survive a naval blockade for months. Political Calculations: Midterm Elections and Trump's Dilemma At his cabinet meeting, Trump said he didn't care about the midterm elections and wasn't in a rush to reach a deal. "It's got to be perfect," Trump told reporters, adding: "I didn't do this to get a crummy agreement." Despite his weak position, Trump insists that he will strike a better deal with Iran than the one negotiated by the Obama administration in 2015. That agreement provided Tehran with relief from international sanctions in exchange for limits on its nuclear enrichment. The Unintended Consequences: Strengthening the Adversary Trump could have avoided starting a regime-change war that failed, leaving the world to deal with its consequences. Instead, the master negotiator handed Iran a new economic weapon – and more leverage to extract a favorable deal. The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you're dead. Trump wrote in his famous book. The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you can have.

The Countdown to Trump’s Final Determination on a US‑Iran DealPresident Donald Trump signalled on May 30, 2026 that he would make a “final determination” on a potential agreement to end the Iran‑U.S. conflict, while Iranian chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned Tehran would only act after Washington takes concrete steps.Financial Stakes: $1.5 Trillion Defence Investment and 3.5 % GDP TargetsUS Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a $1.5 trillion defence spending boost, urging allies to allocate at least 3.5 % of GDP to defence.The pledge underscores the economic dimension of the Iran negotiations, linking security commitments to massive fiscal outlays.Regional Flashpoints: Israeli Advances in Lebanon and Ongoing Air AlertsIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed troops have crossed the Litani River, expanding operations northward in southern Lebanon.The Israeli military reported intercepting projectiles from Lebanon and a near‑miss in northern Israel, though no casualties were reported.US Central Command (CENTCOM) displayed an F‑16 patrol over the Middle East, signalling continued US presence.Strategic Implications for US‑Iran Relations and Middle‑East StabilityThe divergent statements from Washington and Tehran highlight a stalemate: the US demands concrete Iranian concessions, while Iran insists on reciprocal US actions. Simultaneously, heightened Israeli‑Lebanese hostilities risk drawing additional regional actors into the conflict.What Comes Next: Scenarios for the Next 30 DaysBest‑case: A limited agreement is reached, easing naval restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz and reducing immediate combat operations.Mid‑case: Negotiations stall, leading to a continuation of proxy clashes and increased US defence spending.Worst‑case: Escalation in Lebanon triggers broader regional involvement, potentially expanding the war beyond current borders.

The LeadIga Swiatek has called for the French Open to make changes to the layout of their courts after multiple players were forced to withdraw this week having been injured when tripping over obstacles at the back of the Roland Garros courts. The world number one player expressed concern that the current setup is not safe for competitors.The Court Safety CrisisThe most recent incident occurred on Friday when Turkish player Zeynep Sonmez ran into one of the Lacoste advertising boards placed at the back of the court and fell to the floor. After a medical time out, Sonmez, alongside her partner Tatjana Maria, was forced to retire from her second round doubles match while trailing 2-0.Earlier in the week, Belgian player Alexander Blockx was forced to withdraw after injuring himself on the rain covers at the back of a practice court. In a statement on Instagram, Blockx revealed: "Unfortunately during today's practice I heard a snap in my ankle while I sprained it thanks to the 'really necessary' covers at the back of the court at Roland Garros, which is why I had to withdraw from tomorrow's match."Great Britain's Katie Boulter also had a near miss, saying the boards need to be removed after she tripped on one during her second-round match. "THESE THINGS HAVE TO GO. Got lucky last night but next time I might not be…" she wrote on social media.Historical ContextThis is far from a new issue at Roland Garros, which uses these panels towards the back of the court to advertise their sponsors. In 2017, David Goffin was forced to retire from his third round match due to a similar incident. No other grand slam tournament places their rain covers behind the baseline, making the French Open unique in this aspect.The issue is particularly problematic on clay courts due to the tendency for players to move and defend from deeper positions on the surface. This increases the likelihood of players running into the obstacles at the back of the court during extended rallies.Tournament UniquenessThe French Open is the only big tournament that still uses line judges, with the tournament placing their boards next to lines people in the court. Arthur Ashe Stadium at the US Open is the only other grand slam court with advertising hoardings on the court, but those boards are pressed directly to the back wall, not placed in the playing area.This design choice has been a point of contention for years, with players consistently raising concerns about the safety implications of having obstacles in the playing area. Despite these concerns, the tournament has maintained this setup, citing tradition and sponsorship requirements.Player Reactions"I didn't see the incidents, but I heard about them," said Swiatek. "Obviously if these things happen, there needs to be a reaction, because there are other ways for us to be visible for sure, you know? It's a shame, and it shouldn't – I hope they're going to put them in a different place or just put the advertising in a different way there, because it's not safe for sure."After her straight sets win over Viktorija Golubic, Marta Kostyuk expressed skepticism that the tournament would make changes: "Honestly, I feel like there are some rules that no matter what happens, they just cannot be changed, and no matter how much you speak about it or how much you fight over it, it's just the rules. I don't know."Swiatek's Path ForwardDespite the concerns about court safety, Swiatek continues to build confidence and momentum in her first major tournament alongside her new coach, Francisco Roig. After projected tough opponents like Jelena Ostapenko and Elena Rybakina were eliminated in round two, Swiatek now faces a different challenge in the form of Marta Kostyuk.Kostyuk is on a 15-match winning streak and has not lost on clay this year after winning titles in Rouen and Madrid. "I definitely have a different feeling going into this match, because I feel like last time that I played her in Cincinnati, I lost this match way before it even started, and I don't feel the same this time," said Kostyuk.

The Israeli Plan to Extend Control in Gaza The German government has expressed concern over Israeli plans to extend its military control of Gaza. A spokesperson for the German Foreign Office said on Friday that Berlin opposes any permanent division of Gaza. Netanyahu's Order to Increase Control The comment came in response to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's order to the Israeli military to increase control in the enclave to 70 percent. This move raises questions over the durability of the nominal ceasefire brokered by the United States and regional countries, including Qatar and Turkiye, in October. The Impact on Gaza's Population An expansion of Israeli control would also worsen conditions for Gaza's 2.3 million people already squeezed into about 35 percent of the small enclave. The steady expansion of Israeli control since the ceasefire has raised Palestinian fears that Israel aims to permanently annex large parts of the enclave. Fears of Annexation Speaking on Thursday, Netanyahu suggested Israel might even seize more than 70 percent of Gaza. Critics argue that the term 'voluntary' is a euphemism, following nearly three years of genocide when most of Gaza's infrastructure has been destroyed, leaving the territory uninhabitable. The International Response Germany is one of Israel's closest allies and its second-largest weapons supplier after the US. However, in recent months Berlin has begun criticising some Israeli actions, including its annexation of more territory in the occupied West Bank, and the implementation of the death penalty solely for Palestinians.

French Prosecutors Launch Investigation into Flotilla Abuse AllegationsFrench public prosecutors have been instructed by Foreign Minister Jean‑Noël Barrot to examine claims that Israeli forces committed sexual violence, beatings and humiliation against French nationals during the May 19 raid on the Global Sumud Flotilla bound for Gaza.Details of the May 19 Interception and Alleged ViolationsThe Israeli navy intercepted more than 50 boats carrying activists from about 40 countries in international waters off Cyprus. Thirty‑seven French citizens reported “extremely violent”, “humiliating” and “dehumanising” treatment, including alleged groping, stun‑weapon torture and forced exposure to cold.Numbers Highlight Scope of the IncidentOver 400 people arrested in the raid.37 French nationals among the detainees.At least 15 documented cases of sexual abuse reported by the Global Sumud Flotilla.More than 50 boats from 40 countries set sail.Political Repercussions for France, Israel and International RelationsThe probe adds to mounting criticism from Western allies, with France summoning the Israeli ambassador and banning National Security Minister Itamar Ben‑Gvir from entering the country. Israeli officials deny any misconduct, but the allegations could strain diplomatic ties and fuel calls for broader accountability mechanisms.Potential Legal Outcomes and Future Diplomatic TensionsIf the investigation finds evidence of criminal offences, French prosecutors could pursue charges for torture or sexual violence, potentially leading to international legal actions or sanctions. The case may also prompt other nations to reassess their diplomatic posture toward Israel’s enforcement of the Gaza blockade.

The Lead-Up to Ethiopia's Elections Ethiopia will head to the polls on June 1 for its first nationwide elections since the formal end of the Tigray war, a devastating two-year conflict from 2020 to 2022 that concluded with a peace agreement between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Ethiopia at a Glance Ethiopia is a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa, covering an area of 1,104,300sq km (426,400sq miles) and bordered by Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti. The country has sustained notable economic growth over the past two decades, with the IMF projecting a 9.2 percent expansion in 2026, the highest on the continent. Yet persistent challenges remain, including high inflation (11.7 percent as of April 2026), foreign exchange shortages, and the costly burden of post-war reconstruction. Ethiopia's Ethnic Groups The East African country is one of the most ethnically diverse countries in the world, with more than 80 distinct groups. The Oromo are the largest, making up about 35 percent of the population, concentrated largely in the south and central regions. The Amhara are the second-largest, about 24 percent, and have historically been the politically dominant group. Other significant groups include the Somali (7 percent), in the east; the Tigrayan (6 percent), concentrated in the northern Tigray region; and the Sidama (4 percent), in the southern highlands. Armed Violence Across the Country Ethiopia has been in near-continuous conflict since 2020, across several fronts: Tigray (2020-22): Ethiopian forces (ENDF) and their allies, including Eritrean forces, fought the Tigray defence forces (TDF). Oromia (2019-present): Conflict between Oromia regional forces, the ENDF, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has killed thousands of civilians. Amhara (2023-present): Amhara militias fought alongside federal troops in the Tigray war, but that alliance collapsed when the federal government reached a peace deal with the TPLF. According to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), an independent conflict monitor, between January 1, 2022 and May 15, 2026, more than 7,400 attacks have been recorded across the country.

The Drone Incident in RomaniaRomania and its NATO allies have reacted angrily after a Russian drone crashed into an apartment building in eastern Romania, injuring two people. The foreign ministry in Bucharest on Friday labelled the crash of the drone, part of an overnight attack aimed at Ukraine, a serious violation of international law and called on NATO to accelerate the transfer of anti-drone capabilities.The incident is just the latest incursion along the alliance's eastern flank, raising concern that the risk of an open confrontation between Russia and NATO states is rising.Technical Details of the CrashRomania said the overnight drone was tracked by radar in its airspace before crashing onto the roof of a residential building in the city of Galati. Two F-16 fighter jets and a helicopter were scrambled, as authorities issued emergency alerts to residents. Two people suffered minor injuries and several residents were evacuated after a fire was triggered by the crash.Geopolitical RamificationsThe incident is just the latest of several, as the war in Ukraine has spilled over into neighbouring NATO countries, raising fears of potential escalation. Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, as well as Finland have all reported repeated incursions into their airspace in recent months. Drone incursions sparked a government collapse in Latvia earlier this month.Shortly after the crash, Bucharest called for NATO to speed up the transfer of anti-drone capabilities. Outgoing Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan also said that Romania would, within hours, sign a contract which will give it anti-drone defences under the EU's SAFE programme.Diplomatic ResponsesOn Friday morning, Romania summoned the Russia ambassador. "We will officially communicate the consequences that this lack of responsibility on the part of the Russian Federation will have for the diplomatic relations between our countries, as well as the next steps at the European level regarding sanctions packages," Foreign Minister Oana Toiu wrote on social media.President Nicusor Dan stated that Romania will not accept that the war of aggression waged by Russia against Ukraine be transferred to its citizens, and added that he had asked the foreign ministry to present without delay a series of measures regarding the country's relationship with Russia, "proportionate to this very serious situation."International CondemnationNATO allies and others joined the chorus of anger. French Minister for European Affairs Benjamin Haddad said the incident highlighted the threat Russia poses to European security, noting that French troops are stationed in Romania."Regardless of whether it was on purpose or the result of ineptitude, Russia is still dangerous and we must defend ourselves against it," Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told the Reuters news agency. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the incident showed that "Russia's war of aggression has crossed yet another line".A NATO spokesperson also condemned "Russia's recklessness" on social media. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha pledged "Ukraine stands firmly by Romania" as he branded Russia a threat to the Black Sea region and the wider European continent.Escalation ConcernsUnited Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the escalating attacks risk spiralling "out of control", with "unknown and unintended consequences". He said more civilians had been killed in the first four months of this year than during the same period in the previous three years, and called for diplomacy, immediate de-escalation and "a full and unconditional ceasefire".Concern that the war is threatening to spillover is building as Russia escalates hostilities in a bid to ward off rising political and economic pressure at home. Ukrainian forces reported that they shot down 217 drones overnight on Friday. Russia attacked with 232 drones and one ballistic missile. Hits were recorded in 14 areas, the air force said.Russia's Strategic PosturingMoscow has said it plans "systematic strikes" on Kyiv and has issued a barrage of threats at Ukraine's European allies, listing facilities in Europe that it said are involved in manufacturing drones and components for Ukraine. Moscow's Foreign Intelligence Service recently warned the Baltic nations that their NATO membership won't protect them from retaliation should they allow Ukraine to launch attacks from their territory, with analysts warning that the risk of an open confrontation between Russia and NATO states is rising.Article 5 Under ScrutinyThat heightens concern regarding NATO's Article 5 collective defence clause, which President Donald Trump has hinted the United States may not honour in some cases. However, the alliance's Secretary General Mark Rutte insisted on Friday that NATO will defend all of its territory."Russia's reckless behaviour is a danger to us all," he wrote on social media. "Last night showed yet again that the implications of their illegal war of aggression don't stop at the border." "We will continue to strengthen our deterrence and defence at home and continue our support for Ukraine as they defend against Russia's aggression," he added.

The Lead: Asian Markets React to Diplomatic DevelopmentsAsian stocks are rising today amid hopes of a US-Iran peace deal and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that has been impacted by regional tensions. The positive market sentiment comes as US President Donald Trump has circulated a draft peace agreement among allies, including Israel, which could significantly alter the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.The Event Details: US-Iran Peace Proposal TermsPresident Trump has shared a draft peace agreement for the war with Iran, similar to proposals circulating throughout the Middle East. The key provisions include:Opening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shippingLifting the US blockade of Iranian portsProviding Iran with access to up to $12 billion (£9 billion) in frozen assetsTargeting the return of commercial shipping in the strait to pre-war levels within 30 daysAnticipating negotiations lasting up to 60 days on Iran's nuclear programThe Data Analysis: Market Performance and Oil ImpactAsian markets are showing strong gains across the board:Japanese Nikkei: +2.65%Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.9%South Korean Kospi: +3.6%TSMC (chip maker): +2.6%Samsung Electronics: +6%SK Hynix: +0.6%Concurrently, oil prices have declined, with Brent crude falling approximately 1% to $93.02 per barrel. The price drop reflects investor calculations about the potential impact of the Strait of Hormuz reopening on global oil supplies.The Impact Analysis: Regional and Global Economic ImplicationsThe potential peace deal between the US and Iran could have far-reaching implications for global markets and regional stability. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil trade passes, could significantly impact energy markets and shipping routes. Additionally, the lifting of port blockades and access to frozen assets could stimulate Iran's economy and create new trade opportunities in the region.The rally in Asian tech stocks, particularly semiconductor manufacturers, suggests that while geopolitical tensions are easing, enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and related technologies continues to drive market sentiment in the region.The Prediction: Market Trajectory and Upcoming Economic IndicatorsAs diplomatic negotiations progress, markets will likely continue to react to developments in the US-Iran peace process. The coming weeks will be critical as the 60-day negotiation period on Iran's nuclear program unfolds. Investors should also monitor upcoming economic indicators that could influence market sentiment:French inflation report (7.45am BST)Spanish inflation report (8am BST)Andrew Bailey speech at the Reykjavik 2026 economic conference (9.20am BST)Germany inflation report (1pm BST)Canadian Q1 2026 GDP (1.30pm BST)The interplay between geopolitical developments and economic data will likely shape market direction in the coming weeks.

Ethiopia's Contested Election LandscapeAddis Ababa, Ethiopia – Ethiopia will hold general elections on June 1, 2026, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's governing Prosperity Party (PP) widely expected to secure a decisive victory. A fragmented opposition and violence in parts of the country could keep millions from voting, raising questions about the legitimacy of the electoral process.In the capital, Addis Ababa, the ruling party has closed major roads, including Meskel Square in the city centre, to stage large rallies for supporters, while opposition parties say they have been barred from holding comparable gatherings.Election Dynamics and Government Campaign StrategyThe electoral board claims more than 50 million people have registered to vote out of a population of at least 130 million, though critics dispute these figures, pointing to large parts of the country affected by conflicts in regions including Amhara and Oromia, as well as lingering instability following the Tigray conflict.Several of the country's most populous regions, including Amhara, Oromia, Gambella and Tigray, remain unstable after a civil war that ended in 2022, killing an estimated 600,000 people and displacing millions.Regional Conflicts and Electoral Legitimacy"The polls are primarily a symbolic exercise intended to confer legitimacy on the incumbent," Kjetil Tronvoll, professor at Oslo New University College and an expert on Ethiopia, told Al Jazeera. "Multiparty elections in Ethiopia have never been a genuine contest with the real possibility of changing government, neither under the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) nor under the PP.""With the exclusion of Tigray, the challenge is far bigger than it appears on the surface," Tronvoll said, adding that it reflects Ethiopia's political and territorial crisis. "It is a consequence of the federal government's lack of territorial control and the erosion of federal authority over political institutions in the region."Suppression of Opposition and Media ControlMany opposition voices have been pushed out of formal political space, with armed movements active across Amhara, Oromia and other regions. Tigray has been excluded entirely from the election, as the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a banned but influential political actor in the region, consolidates its authority.Opposition leader Mistresilasie Tamerat, 23, who heads the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Party (EPRP), says she has been repeatedly denied permits and venues to organize rallies, an issue also highlighted by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC), a government-established human rights body.Press Freedom Under SiegeMuch of Ethiopia's media and journalists have been warned against critical coverage of the upcoming election, while the media regulatory authority has come under scrutiny for its actions against the press, including the reported deportation of journalists and restrictions affecting outlets such as The Economist and The Africa Report.Ethiopia now ranks 145th out of 180 countries in Reporters Without Borders' 2025 Press Freedom Index, alongside Eritrea, North Korea and Iran near the bottom of the ranking. Addis Standard, a leading critical online publication, has had its licence withdrawn, while The Reporter newspaper, the country's largest-circulation paper, has been warned to align its reporting with government narratives.Diminished Public Engagement and Future OutlookDays before the vote, the mood in Addis Ababa is subdued. There are few campaign signs beyond those of the governing party and little visible political activity, reflecting a mood shaped by double-digit inflation and an influx of displaced people fleeing insecurity elsewhere in the country.Even music perceived as critical of the government, including songs by popular artist Teddy Afro, is increasingly absent from public spaces and radio broadcasts, residents say. For many Ethiopians, the election represents a continuation of the status quo rather than a genuine opportunity for political change, with the government's control over institutions and public space ensuring its anticipated victory.