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The Bond Market Obsession in British PoliticsA spectre is haunting British politics: the bond markets. Recent political discourse has been dominated by fears of "bond vigilantes" punishing fiscal policies they deem irresponsible, as evidenced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves' warnings following local election results. This obsession has created a situation where democratic mandates for change are being vetoed by investors, leading to what economist Thandika Mkandawire termed "choiceless democracies."The Bank of England's Role in Rising Borrowing CostsThe Bank of England has become a significant factor in Britain's high borrowing costs, often overlooked in political debates. Since 2022, the Bank has sold £134bn in gilts, with its share of UK gilt holdings nearly halved in three years. This year alone, it sold £7.6bn in gilts, with another £12bn planned. Investors calculate that active quantitative tightening has added up to 0.7 percentage points to UK borrowing costs—what might be called the "Bailey premium," recognizing the role of Bank Governor Andrew Bailey in the gilt market.The Financial Impact of Inflation-Linked BondsBritain's unique vulnerability to inflation-linked gilts, or "linkers," has created a significant budgetary challenge. With about a quarter of its bonds inflation-pegged—more than twice as many as Italy or France—the British government has had to pay a staggering £153bn in additional debt service since the 2022 Russia price shocks. This creates an ironic situation: when the Bank misses inflation targets, the government pays bond investors compensation, further straining public finances.Pension Funds and the Future of UK DebtThe UK's pension system, particularly defined contribution schemes where workers bear investment risks, is reshaping the government bond market. These funds prefer high-yielding investments like stocks and private equity rather than government bonds. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that pension funds will halve their gilt holdings over the next decade, eventually resulting in an increase in annual debt interest costs of about £22bn. This represents a political choice that could be reversed through policy interventions.Toward a Democratic Model of Central BankingIf the UK wants transformative change, it needs a new model of central banking that serves the common good rather than being influenced by bond markets. This includes reevaluating the Bank of England's role, phasing out inflation-linked bonds, and redirecting pension fund investments toward public essentials. The recent Pension Schemes Act 2026 provides an opportunity to channel workers' capital into public ownership of essential services such as housing, water, and transport. These are hard political choices, but they exist for those willing to challenge the status quo of managed British decline.

Mauritania has turned to an unconventional counter‑terrorism tool: women trained in Islamic scholarship who work in schools, prisons and community centres to undermine extremist narratives. Since the Ministry of Islamic Affairs launched the mourchidates programme in 2021, the country has avoided the large‑scale attacks that have ravaged its Sahel neighbours. The State‑Backed Religious Guidance Model The mourchidates are certified by the state, receiving formal training in Quranic interpretation, Islamic jurisprudence and social counselling. Their role mirrors Morocco’s programme launched after the 2003 Casablanca bombings, but Mauritania has expanded their deployment to every region of the country. Training includes theological study and community‑engagement techniques. Guides operate under the Ministry of Islamic Affairs, ensuring official backing. They address both extremist ideology and the socio‑economic factors that fuel radicalisation. Prison as a Battleground for Ideas In Mauritanian prisons, mourchidates sit with detainees linked to Sahel armed groups, challenging the theological justifications for violence point‑by‑point. By offering alternative readings of Islamic texts, they create space for detainees to reconsider violent paths. Preventive Outreach in Communities Beyond prisons, the guides travel to schools, youth centres, mosques and markets, delivering lessons on tolerance, charity and accountability. Their presence aims to intercept radicalisation before it takes root, especially among unemployed youth vulnerable to extremist recruitment. Impact on Regional Stability While exact metrics are scarce, Mauritania’s relative calm compared with Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger is widely attributed to this holistic approach. Analysts cite the programme as a case study in combining intelligence, community trust and religious reform to blunt extremist growth. Future Outlook and Replicability Critics note limited resources and question whether the model can be exported to other Sahel states where state‑society trust is weaker. Nonetheless, the success of the mourchidates suggests that investing in credible, female religious leadership could become a cornerstone of non‑military counter‑terrorism strategies across the region.

The Deportation Process Israel has begun deporting the hundreds of activists abducted by Israeli forces who stormed a Gaza aid flotilla earlier this week, according to the Legal Center for Arab Minority Rights in Israel, Adalah. The rights group told Al Jazeera on Thursday that most of the roughly 430 abducted activists were being transported to Ramon Airport in southern Israel, from where they would be deported. The rest will be deported from Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv. Global Condemnation The abductions have been widely condemned, with the foreign ministers of 10 countries, including Spain, Brazil and India, slamming Israeli forces’ actions as “blatant violations of international law and international humanitarian law”. Israel’s treatment of the activists has since been condemned by more countries, including several key allies, after far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted a video on X on Wednesday of him taunting activists who were kneeling on the floor with their hands tied behind their backs. International Repercussions In response, several countries, including France, Canada, Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands, summoned the Israeli ambassadors to their capitals to express their outrage. Meanwhile, European Council President Antonio Costa said he was “appalled” by Ben-Gvir’s behaviour, calling it “completely unacceptable”. “It really goes to show how much Israeli authorities wanted to make a show out of [this] and how it’s very much an extension of the Israeli treatment towards Palestinians, which obviously gets a lot less of a public outcry,” Miriam Azem, the international advocacy coordinator at Adalah, told Al Jazeera. The Future Outlook Earlier, Turkiye announced it was sending chartered flights to Israel to repatriate some of its citizens and those of third countries, including Spanish nationals. Jordan has confirmed that two of its nationals have returned home via the southern crossing with Israel. Reporting from Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, Al Jazeera’s Nida Ibrahim said the ongoing deportations were the fastest Israel has ever carried out, as it scrambles to contain the public relations damage caused by Ben-Gvir’s video. Ibrahim added that many Palestinians believe the incident has gained more international attention because those mistreated were from foreign countries.

The latest S&P; Global purchasing managers' index shows UK services activity slipping to a 48.5 reading in May, marking the steepest drop in a decade and signalling a broader economic slowdown.Sharp Drop in UK Services PMI Marks Decade‑Worst DeclineIndex fell to 48.5 in May, down from 52.6 in April.Lowest reading since January 2021 and the lowest since July 2016 when Covid data are excluded.Services sector accounts for roughly 80% of UK GDP.PMI Numbers Reveal Contraction Below Growth ThresholdThe composite output index, which blends manufacturing and services data, dropped below the critical 50‑point mark, indicating contraction. Economists had forecast a reading of 51.6, making the actual figure notably worse.Payrolls fell for the 20th consecutive month, echoing ONS data that showed a loss of 100,000 payrolled employees in April.Manufacturing showed a modest rebound, hitting a three‑month high as firms front‑loaded orders.Broader Economic Implications for GDP and Monetary PolicyAndrew Wishart of Berenberg warned that a sustained PMI slump could push quarterly GDP growth from 0.6% in Q1 to -0.2% in Q2. Meanwhile, the Bank of England may keep its policy rate at 3.75% after recent inflation data showed a slowdown to 2.8% in April and wage growth easing to 3.4%.Outlook: Potential Further Slowdown Amid Geopolitical TensionsAnalysts attribute the downturn primarily to the ongoing Iran war and heightened uncertainty around Keir Starmer's leadership. If these pressures persist, the services sector could see continued job cuts and reduced spending, while manufacturers may face tighter order books, as noted by the CBI.Overall, the flash PMI suggests a cautious near‑term outlook for the UK economy, with policymakers likely to adopt a wait‑and‑see stance on interest‑rate adjustments.

The Lead: International Outrage Over Ben-Gvir's Video Israel's far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has posted a video of himself taunting foreign activists abducted from a Gaza-bound aid flotilla at a makeshift holding pen in Israel's city of Ashdod. The activists, abducted by Israeli forces in international waters, are seen cable-tied and kneeling while Israel's national anthem blares in the video, which was released on Wednesday. Several countries, including Italy and France, have summoned Israeli ambassadors to explain the stunt. As well as a global backlash, the video has even been met with sharp rebukes from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and staunch ally, United States ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee. Who is Ben-Gvir: The Far-Right Minister at the Center of Controversy The 50-year-old lawyer and politician has led the far-right Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit) party in Israel since 2019. He was sworn into the cabinet after the 2022 elections and was later appointed as national security minister and given control of Israel's Border Police division in the occupied West Bank. A settler in Kiryat Arba, one of the most radical settlements on Palestinian land in the occupied West Bank – all of which are illegal under international law – Ben-Gvir has convictions for incitement to racism, destroying property, possessing a "terror" organisation's propaganda material and supporting a "terror" organisation – Meir Kahane's outlawed Kach group, whose founder advocated for expelling non-Jews from Israel and which Ben-Gvir joined when he was 16. He frequently carries out anti-Palestinian acts, including regularly storming the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in occupied East Jerusalem's Old City, Islam's third holiest site, alongside Israeli settlers and under the protection of Israeli forces. The Flotilla Activists: International Aid Efforts to Gaza This refers primarily to the Gaza aid flotillas – groups of boats carrying activists from different countries which have set out across the Mediterranean in an attempt to deliver aid and raise awareness at various times since October 2023, when Israel launched its brutal assault on the Gaza Strip, which has killed more than 72,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians. The modern flotilla movement emerged in 2006 during Israel's war on Lebanon and expanded after Israel imposed its blockade on Gaza in 2007. Since then, hundreds of vessels organised by international solidarity groups have attempted to reach the territory, carrying humanitarian aid and activists. In 2008, two boats from the Free Gaza Movement became the first to successfully reach Gaza by sea despite the blockade. But since 2010, Israeli forces have intercepted nearly every flotilla in international waters. On Tuesday, at least 430 activists from more than 46 countries were abducted during Israeli interceptions of the latest flotilla. The Video: Ben-Gvir's Taunting of Detained Activists In the video released on Wednesday, a woman approaches the minister and says in English, "Free Palestine!" before masked security officers put their hands on her head as they snap it down and push her away. "Good job," Ben-Gvir says to the officers, before stating, "Welcome to Israel. We are the landowners here; that is how it should be." Activists are then seen on their knees with their heads on the ground and arms tied behind their backs in "stress positions" as the figures of armed Israeli security officers look down on them from atop shipping containers. Ben-Gvir, waving an Israeli flag and heavily protected by security personnel, can be seen weaving in between the activists, appearing to relish the moment as he taunts them. International Response: Global Condemnation of Israel's Actions Several countries, including Italy, France, the Netherlands and Canada, have summoned Israeli ambassadors to their capitals to express their "indignation" over Israel's treatment of the abducted Gaza flotilla activists and to demand the release of their citizens. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot also denounced Ben-Gvir's actions as "unacceptable", calling for the release of French citizens "as soon as possible". Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand called the incident "deeply troubling". United Kingdom Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said the video showed "totally disgraceful scenes". "The images of Israeli Minister Ben Gvir are unacceptable. It is unacceptable that these protesters, including many Italian citizens, are subjected to this treatment that violates their human dignity," Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said in a statement on X. Previous Treatment of Activists: A Pattern of Controversy In May 2010, when Israeli commandos stormed the Turkish ship Mavi Marmara, 10 activists were killed and dozens were wounded. Allegations of mistreatment by activists who have been brought to Israel after naval interceptions have been common, and organisers say they fear sanctions and accusations of Hamas links are being used to justify further crackdowns. The concerns come amid previous allegations by activists of abuse, including sexual abuse, during past interceptions by Israeli officials. Organisers have also accused Israeli naval forces of firing "rubber bullets" at activists during the latest interception, which occurred in international waters. Many activists who have previously been detained have been eager to point out that the focus should be on Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails who are subjected to torture and do not have the option to be deported. In 2025, high-profile activist Greta Thunberg, who was on board a previous flotilla, told Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet that activists had been beaten, kicked and threatened with being gassed in cages. Palestinian Prisoners: The Broader Context of Detention Nearly 10,000 Palestinians are currently being held in Israeli prisons in Israel and in the occupied territory, according to the prisoners' rights group Addameer. Some 3,532 of them are administrative detainees – people held without charge or trial – while 342 are children. Israel is the only country in the world that tries children in military courts, often denying them their basic rights. Palestinians detained in Israeli prisons suffer near-constant dehumanising treatment by guards and soldiers. Under a new law passed this year and spearheaded by Ben-Gvir, military courts are now able to impose the death penalty on Palestinians convicted of killing Israelis in acts of "terror". This law will not impose the same penalty on Jewish Israelis convicted of killing Palestinians, which reinforces the legal inequalities that grant privileges to Jewish citizens while targeting Palestinians.

The LeadChinese and Iranian companies are increasingly establishing economic footholds in Russian-occupied Ukrainian regions, particularly in Donetsk and Luhansk, despite international sanctions and Ukraine's territorial integrity concerns. This growing economic integration, described by analysts as "shadow integration," involves Chinese firms supplying construction equipment and telecommunications infrastructure while Iran integrates the occupied territories into its logistical chains.Chinese Companies Establish Economic PresenceIn November 2023, representatives of two Chinese companies signed a deal to supply stone-crushing machinery for construction projects in what they called the "People's Republic of Donetsk," a Russia-backed separatist statelet in southeastern Ukraine. The companies, identified as Zhongxin Heavy Industrial Machinery and Amma Construction Machinery, supplied equipment to the Karansky quarry in the southern Donetsk region, with the crushed stone being used for construction projects in Russia-occupied areas.According to the Eastern Human Rights Group (EHRG), a Ukraine-based think tank, at least 17 Chinese companies operate in the occupied areas, with almost 6,000 Chinese-made relay stations for cellphone connections installed there. Chinese firms are involved in mining, construction, telecommunications equipment supply, and financial services."As Russia integrates its power in the occupied areas and transfers politicians to occupation administrations, Chinese companies carry out another replacement, but in the economy," said Maksym Butchenko from the EHRG.The Economic Transformation of Occupied RegionsThe occupied regions' economy has undergone significant changes since 2014. Out of 94 coal mines that operated in Donetsk and Luhansk (collectively known as the Donbas) before the conflict, only five remain open. The remaining mines "completely reoriented towards working with China and Russia," according to Butchenko.Furthermore, the occupied regions' economy is "totally yuanised" as local businesses use Chinese electronic payment systems through Telegram channels that offer currency exchange and transfers. The yuan is now sold in 79 banks in the occupied areas, creating a financial ecosystem increasingly dependent on China."This is a threatening precedent from the viewpoint of international politics and law because this violates international agreements," Butchenko stated, calling China's approach "shadow integration."Iran's Strategic Economic PartnershipsMoscow reportedly encourages the occupied regions to develop ties with Iran, creating another layer of economic integration beyond China. Tehran buys grain and coal from the occupied territories and "integrates the economy of occupied Donbas into its own logistical chains created after decades of isolation," according to the EHRG.Donskiye Ugli, a Russian coal mining company operating "nationalized" mines in Donetsk and Luhansk, ships the fossil fuel to Iran, according to separatist official Andrey Chertkov. Additionally, local food producers in the occupied territories have begun supplying casein, a milk protein, to Iran."The Kremlin not only gives permission to Iranian companies to enter the occupied areas' market but also encourages them," Butchenko explained, highlighting Russia's active role in facilitating these economic partnerships.International Response and Future ImplicationsBeijing maintains its official position of supporting Ukraine's territorial integrity while calling the Russia-Ukraine war a "crisis." However, unofficially, Chinese companies have "almost captured the entire market in the occupied areas," according to Butchenko.Kyiv has sanctioned Chinese companies operating in the occupied regions, including Alibaba and the China National Petroleum Corporation, and urges Western nations to follow suit. Despite these sanctions, Chinese companies continue to operate, often offering lower prices and technical expertise that is difficult to replace."China is here for good," a business owner in Donetsk told Al Jazeera. "All new equipment here is Chinese from machine tools to ventilators." This growing economic presence, combined with Iran's increasing involvement, suggests that the economic integration of these occupied territories with China and Iran will continue to deepen, potentially creating long-term challenges for Ukraine's territorial integrity and for international efforts to isolate Russia economically.

As of 21 May 2026, the United States and Iran remain locked in a dangerous confrontation that threatens regional stability. With diplomatic channels frayed and military posturing intensifying, both sides are weighing a shrinking set of options to avoid a broader war.Escalating Diplomatic Stalemate Between Washington and TehranWashington has renewed secondary sanctions targeting Iran's oil export infrastructure, aiming to choke revenue streams.Tehran responded with a series of missile tests and a public vow to resume uranium enrichment beyond the limits of the 2015 nuclear agreement.Back‑channel talks mediated by the European Union stalled after the U.S. demanded a complete freeze on Iran's ballistic program.Economic Levers and Military Costs: The Numbers Behind the ConflictU.S. sanctions are projected to cut Iranian oil earnings by 30%, reducing annual revenue by roughly $15 billion.Iran's defense budget for 2026 is estimated at $12 billion, a 5% increase over the previous year.U.S. Central Command reports a forward deployment of 5,000 troops in the Gulf region, adding an operational cost of about $1.2 billion per month.Regional Ripple Effects: How the Standoff Shapes the Middle EastOil prices have hovered around $85 per barrel, up 7% since the sanctions round‑up, pressuring economies from Saudi Arabia to Egypt.Neighboring Iraq and Syria face heightened security risks as proxy militias receive increased funding from Tehran.Humanitarian agencies warn of a potential surge in refugee flows if hostilities expand into the Strait of Hormuz.Paths Forward: Scenarios for De‑escalation and Their LikelihoodRenewed Multilateral Negotiations: A EU‑led framework could restore the nuclear deal if Iran halts enrichment, but U.S. domestic politics make concessions uncertain (30% likelihood).Targeted Economic Incentives: Offering limited sanctions relief in exchange for verifiable freeze on missile production could create a narrow win‑win (45% likelihood).Escalation to Limited Military Strikes: Both sides retain the option of calibrated strikes, which would raise the risk of a broader regional war (25% likelihood).

The Philippine justice secretary ordered law‑enforcement agencies on Thursday to apprehend Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, a senator wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity, following a Supreme Court decision rejecting his bid to block the arrest.Justice Secretary Fredderick Vida Issues Nationwide Arrest DirectiveJustice Secretary Fredderick Vida announced that any individual assisting the fugitive senator would "face consequences." He emphasized that the pursuit aims to ensure "the ends of justice may be achieved." The Philippine National Police chief, Jose Melencio Nartatez, confirmed the police will act within legal bounds but stopped short of confirming an immediate arrest.Human Toll of the Duterte Drug Campaign Cited by the ICCThe ICC estimates that between 12,000 to 30,000 people were killed during the 2016‑2019 period of President Rodrigo Duterte's "war on drugs," a campaign in which Ronald Dela Rosa served as the top enforcer.Six months of hiding ended when Dela Rosa briefly sought refuge in the Senate.He fled the Senate in the early hours of May 14 after a night of chaos and gunfire.The ICC indictment also targets former President Duterte, who remains in custody in The Hague since March 2025.Political Repercussions for the Philippines' International StandingThe arrest order intensifies diplomatic pressure on Manila, highlighting tensions between domestic political maneuvers and international accountability mechanisms. It underscores the Philippines' challenge in balancing sovereign legal processes with obligations to the ICC, potentially affecting foreign aid, trade negotiations, and its reputation in multilateral forums.What the Next Steps Could Mean for Philippine GovernanceIf authorities locate and detain Ronald Dela Rosa, the case could set a precedent for ICC cooperation and signal a shift toward greater adherence to international legal norms. Conversely, prolonged evasion may embolden other officials facing ICC scrutiny and deepen internal political divisions ahead of upcoming elections.

The Sharp Decline in UK Net Migration Net migration to the UK fell by nearly 50% to 171,000 last year, according to official figures released on Thursday, in what will be seen as a boost for Keir Starmer's government. Key Figures and Trends The data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the difference between the number of people moving to the UK and the number of people leaving was at its lowest level since 2021. The figure was down 48% year on year from 331,000 in 2024. It extends a sharp decline from a record peak of 944,000 in 2023. The Impact on Government Policy The figures will encourage government ministers who have promised to drive down the number of people moving to the UK. Migration has become a key political battleground against the rise of Nigel Farage's Reform UK. The Data Analysis The number of nationals from outside the EU arriving for work-related reasons fell by 47% in 2025, which was the main cause of the continued fall in net migration. Over the same period, overall emigration fell slightly. An estimated 813,000 people immigrated to the UK. 642,000 emigrated. The Public Perception Many people mistakenly believe net migration is rising in Britain despite figures dropping to their lowest level in years. Research from British Future revealed a chasm between reality and public perception of net migration, with a substantial portion of the public believing it had increased. The Future Outlook The Home Office is publishing its own figures on Thursday related to the 12-month period to March 2026. The continued fall in net migration is being driven by fewer people from outside the EU arriving in the UK for work, the ONS said.