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The 2026 Goldman Environmental Prize—often dubbed the "Green Nobel"—has made history by honoring six women grassroots activists from Africa, Asia, Europe, Islands & Island Nations, North America, and South & Central America. Each receives $200,000, underscoring the growing global emphasis on gender‑inclusive climate leadership.Key DevelopmentsIroro Tanshi (Nigeria) protected the endangered short‑tailed roundleaf bat and the Afi Mountain Wildlife Sanctuary from wildfires.Borim Kim (South Korea) secured a landmark Constitutional Court ruling that the government’s climate policy violates the rights of future generations—the first youth‑led climate victory in Asia.Sarah Finch (United Kingdom) leveraged the "Finch ruling" from the Supreme Court to force authorities to assess fossil‑fuel climate impacts before granting extraction permits.Theonila Roka Matbob (Papua New Guinea) compelled Rio Tinto to address the legacy of the Panguna copper mine.Alannah Acaq Hurley (United States, Yup'ik nation) helped block a mega copper‑gold mine threatening Alaska’s Bristol Bay salmon runs.Yuvelis Morales Blanco (Colombia) halted commercial fracking projects after confronting major oil firms and raising the issue in the 2022 national election.Data & Market ImpactTotal prize payout: $1.2 million across six winners.Activism outcomes: at least three legal victories that could set precedents for climate‑related litigation worldwide.Economic ripple: halted or delayed fossil‑fuel and mining projects represent potential savings of billions of dollars in greenhouse‑gas emissions and ecosystem services.Why This MattersGender milestone: the all‑women cohort highlights the critical role of women in frontline environmental defense, encouraging more inclusive funding and policy support.Policy influence: court rulings in South Korea and the UK provide templates for future climate‑rights litigation, potentially accelerating decarbonisation commitments.Community resilience: victories in Nigeria, Colombia, and Alaska protect livelihoods tied to biodiversity and fisheries, reinforcing the link between environmental health and economic stability.Expert InsightAnalysts view the 2026 prize as a signal that grassroots movements are maturing into legally sophisticated actors capable of shaping national policy. The diversity of regions—spanning from the Amazon basin to the Korean peninsula—demonstrates that climate risk is no longer a peripheral issue but a central legal and economic driver. Moreover, the focus on fossil‑fuel litigation aligns with a broader global trend where courts are becoming arenas for climate governance, a shift that could pressure governments and corporations to adopt more aggressive emissions‑reduction pathways.What Happens NextIncreased funding: donor agencies are likely to prioritize women‑led environmental NGOs, expanding the resource pool for similar campaigns.Legal cascade: other jurisdictions may cite the South Korean and UK rulings, prompting a wave of climate‑rights lawsuits.Policy adoption: governments in the prize‑winning regions may integrate the activists’ demands into national climate plans to avoid further legal challenges.Public awareness: media coverage of an all‑women prize cohort is expected to boost global awareness of gender equity in climate action, potentially influencing voter behavior and corporate ESG strategies.

The Economist as Saviour: A Life in the CrossfireLord Robert Skidelsky, who died aged 86, was not merely a historian but a prophet of economic reality. His passing marks the end of an era for British intellectual life, leaving a void where a rigorous challenge to free-market orthodoxy once stood. Skidelsky’s career was defined by his monumental biography of John Maynard Keynes, a project that consumed two decades of his life.The Return of the Master: Keynesianism in the 21st CenturyThe defining moment of Skidelsky’s later career came on 15 September 2008, with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. This event rendered his decades of research suddenly relevant. While the global establishment was caught unawares by the crisis, Skidelsky felt a duty to "return to the fray."2008 Crisis: The plunge of the global financial system forced policymakers to dust down Keynes's General Theory.2009 Publication: Skidelsky released Keynes: The Return of the Master, validating the need for stimulus over austerity.Policy Shift: Governments briefly embraced stimulus, cutting rates and printing money to stave off a second Great Depression.The Austerity Critique: A Lost Decade for the UK EconomySkidelsky’s most significant impact lies in his prescient critique of the 2010-2015 austerity measures imposed by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition. While he was part of an "embattled minority," his warnings proved prophetic.The immediate post-crisis recovery was halted by premature fiscal tightening. Skidelsky argued that the UK economy has yet to fully recover from the events of 2008, largely due to the failure to embrace Keynesian ideas long enough. His criticism of George Osborne and the subsequent Rachel Reeves budget highlights his enduring belief that the UK is shackled by "mistaken academic orthodoxy."A Legacy of Maverick OrthodoxySkidelsky was a political maverick, moving from Labour to the SDP to the Conservatives before becoming a crossbench peer. His career was characterized by swimming against the tide, whether supporting Jeremy Corbyn or advocating for a negotiated peace in Ukraine.His final work, Keynes for Our Times, due for release next month, suggests that his battle is not over. As the world grapples with economic stagnation and geopolitical instability, Skidelsky’s insistence that economics must serve human well-being rather than abstract growth remains a vital, if unheeded, prescription for the future.

The Prediction Platform's Meteoric Rise Polymarket, the online prediction platform that hosts bets on events such as the Iran war, is in talks to raise $400m (£296m) at a valuation of up to $15bn. This latest fundraising round would represent a significant two-thirds increase on the company's previous valuation, underscoring the rapid growth and increasing influence of prediction markets in the financial landscape. Geopolitical Betting Drives Platform Growth The company has gained notoriety in recent months over wagers placed on the Middle East conflict, including on the timing of US-Israel strikes against Iran, and on a US-Iran ceasefire, some of which appeared to bear signs of insider trading. During this period, Polymarket has experienced a massive increase in volume, with more than $1bn a week now traded on its platform. The platform operates on a commission-based fee structure, though geopolitical and world events markets are "fee-free." Financial Trajectory and Strategic Investments Polymarket's valuation has been increasing rapidly, having achieved a $1bn price tag in June last year after Peter Thiel's Founders Fund led a $200m round. This was followed months later by the owner of the New York stock exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, pledging $1bn at a valuation of $9bn. The NYSE's owner has since invested a further $600m in Polymarket, with plans to become a "global distributor" of the platform's data, using bets to provide "sentiment analysis" to investors. Datafeeds Reshaping Financial Markets Datafeeds from Polymarket and other online prediction markets have increasingly been shaping trades, including in oil markets. The platform's forecasts are being used by more traditional financial institutions to inform their strategies, creating a new intersection between prediction markets and conventional finance. This integration has raised questions about the potential for prediction markets to influence larger financial systems and whether they might create distortions in market behavior. Controversies and Regulatory Challenges Despite its growth, Polymarket has faced significant scrutiny. Numerous bets placed by anonymous accounts have given rise to speculation that people are taking advantage of insider information. The Israeli authorities earlier this year arrested several people and charged two on suspicion of using classified information to make Polymarket bets. A Guardian investigation found that thousands of people in online communities are strategizing on how to profit from conflict through betting, with some attempting to pressure institutions to change their reporting to align with their wagers. The Future of Prediction Markets As prediction markets continue to gain mainstream acceptance, Polymarket's latest funding round signals growing confidence in the sector's potential. However, the platform faces ongoing challenges regarding regulatory oversight, market manipulation, and the ethical implications of monetizing predictions on sensitive geopolitical events. The increasing integration of Polymarket data into financial decision-making processes suggests that prediction markets are evolving from niche gambling platforms to influential data sources that could shape market behavior in increasingly significant ways.

The Birth of an Anthem in a Time of ChangeThe Levellers' iconic track "What a Beautiful Day" was born out of a specific historical moment. Written in late 1996 by frontman Mark Chadwick, the song emerged during a period of palpable political optimism, just before the end of the Tory government and the rise of Tony Blair. Chadwick describes the era as a time when the cold war had ended and Apartheid was collapsing, creating a sense that the world was moving toward improvement.Despite its cheerful title, the song is rooted in subversive themes. Chadwick wrote it in just five minutes, intending it to be a double-layered composition—one surface layer about a "lovely day," and a deeper layer about revolution and bringing down the government. The lyrics were heavily influenced by Bonfire Night traditions in Lewes and Chadwick's love for old movies and a trip to Cuba, which introduced the Che Guevara reference. From Five-Minute Inspiration to Live EnergyThe recording process was designed to capture the raw energy of the band. Chadwick initially doubted the song, feeling it was "too easy" and "too obvious," but a colleague in the office immediately recognized its hit potential. The band decided to record it live in the studio to maintain the "one noise together" dynamic, resulting in a performance that is even faster live today. Writing Speed: Lyrics and music composed in approximately five minutes. Recording Style: Live in the room to capture band chemistry. Instrumentation: Features a 70s stomp-style beat and a walking bassline. Chart Trajectory and the Radio BanThe release of the song was initially well-timed, coinciding with the departure of the Tories. It climbed the charts, reaching No. 13, when a tragic event halted its momentum. Following the death of Princess Diana in August 1997, radio stations across the UK pulled "What a Beautiful Day" and other upbeat tracks, deeming them inappropriate for the national mood. This sudden removal from rotation illustrates the volatile nature of the music industry during times of national crisis. The song, which Chadwick jokingly wanted to title "The King of All Time," became a casualty of grief, though it remains a staple of the band's live set. Subversive Lyrics vs. National MourningThe irony of the song's reception highlights a shift in cultural interpretation. Originally written as a reaction against "horrible things" and a call to arms, the song was recontextualized by the public as a life-affirming anthem. Jeremy Cunningham, the band's bassist, noted that while many Levellers songs are angry reactions, this one was "full of positivity." The band members reflect on how their youthful "stoned paranoia" about the government has proven true in modern times, yet they maintain that the song's core message remains relevant. They argue that the true revolution today is simply "being a bit nicer to each other." Legacy and the Evolution of the RevolutionDespite the initial radio ban, "What a Beautiful Day" has endured as a defining track for the Levellers. The band has even named their annual festival after the song, a testament to its lasting impact. Looking forward, the band continues to celebrate 35 years of their career, proving that a song written in a moment of political hope can resonate even when the world feels dark.

The Lead Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman has accused the United States of violating a ceasefire agreement through the seizure of a shipment, escalating tensions between the two nations amid ongoing diplomatic negotiations. The Diplomatic Accusation The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman made the formal accusation during a press conference on April 20, 2026, claiming that the US seizure of a shipment constituted a direct violation of the recently established ceasefire terms between the two countries. The spokesman emphasized that the action undermines fragile diplomatic efforts and could potentially derail ongoing negotiations. International Response The accusation comes at a critical juncture in US-Iran relations, with international observers closely monitoring developments. Regional powers and global diplomatic bodies have yet to issue official statements, though some analysts suggest this incident could strain already fragile diplomatic channels. Geopolitical Implications This development occurs against a backdrop of heightened tensions in the Middle East, with both nations navigating complex regional dynamics. The seizure of the shipment and subsequent accusation could potentially affect maritime security in the region and influence other nations' foreign policy decisions regarding both Iran and the United States. Future Outlook Diplomatic experts suggest that this incident may prompt Iran to reconsider its engagement with the US in multilateral forums. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this accusation leads to further escalation or if diplomatic channels can be preserved to address underlying concerns.

Israel Deploys ‘Yellow Line’ Buffer Zone in Southern Lebanon On 20 April 2026, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) declared the establishment of a clearly marked "yellow line" along the southern Lebanese border. The line is intended to serve as a visual and operational barrier to prevent stray fire and infiltration by militant groups operating near the frontier. Scope and Resources Behind the New Demarcation Length: approximately 12 kilometres of marked boundary stretching from the town of Marjayoun to the outskirts of Tyre. Personnel: 300 Israeli soldiers assigned to monitor and enforce the line, supported by 2 UAV units for aerial surveillance. Equipment: portable radar stations, night‑vision cameras, and rapid‑response teams positioned at five key checkpoints. Timeline: construction began on 15 April 2026 and was completed within five days. Strategic Calculus: Why the ‘Yellow Line’ Matters The move follows a spike in cross‑border incidents during the past month, including three rocket launches from Lebanese territory that landed in northern Israel. By creating a visible, enforceable boundary, Israel aims to: Reduce civilian casualties on both sides. Provide a legal and tactical justification for rapid interdiction. Signal to the Lebanese government and Hezbollah that Israel will take proactive defensive steps. Regional Repercussions and Domestic Fallout Lebanese officials have condemned the unilateral action, calling it a violation of sovereignty. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has expressed concern over potential escalation. Analysts predict: Increased diplomatic friction between Israel and Lebanon, possibly prompting emergency talks at the UN. Heightened security alerts in southern Lebanese towns, with local militias likely to test the line’s robustness. Potential ripple effects on Israel’s broader border strategy with Syria and the Gaza Strip. Looking Ahead: Scenarios for the ‘Yellow Line’ Experts outline three plausible trajectories: Stabilisation: The line deters incursions, leading to a de‑escalation and possible joint monitoring with UNIFIL. Escalation: Militants attempt to breach the line, prompting Israeli retaliatory strikes and a cycle of violence. Diplomatic Resolution: The visible barrier becomes a bargaining chip in broader Israel‑Lebanon negotiations, potentially resulting in a formal demilitarised zone. For now, the "yellow line" stands as a tangible reminder of the fragile security balance in the Middle East, and its evolution will be a key barometer of regional stability in the months ahead.

Washington Hosts the Next Chapter in Lebanon-Israel RelationsThe United States State Department is set to host a second round of direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel on Thursday, marking a pivotal moment in the region's fragile post-conflict landscape. This meeting follows the first direct talks in decades, held on April 14, which were attended by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and led by Lebanese Ambassador Nada Hamadeh and her Israeli counterpart Yechiel Leiter.The talks are taking place against the backdrop of a fragile ceasefire announced by Donald Trump on April 16. The US Department of State has emphasized its commitment to facilitating "good-faith discussions," though the path forward remains fraught with tension.The Strategic Stakes of Direct DiplomacyThe core of the current diplomatic effort is the divergent vision of security held by the two nations. While the Lebanese government, led by President Joseph Aoun, seeks a full Israeli withdrawal, Israel is actively pursuing a "forward defence" line.Lebanon's Position: Aoun has vowed to negotiate without sacrificing any part of the country's territory, framing the talks not as a weakness but as a decision rooted in the strength to protect the nation.Israel's Position: Israeli officials have openly stated their intent to replicate the destruction of entire towns in Gaza in southern Lebanon, creating an "annihilated area" as a security buffer.The Human Cost: The negotiations follow a massive Israeli wave of air strikes across Lebanon in early April that killed more than 300 people, including medics, women, and children.Hezbollah's Resistance vs. Aoun's Diplomatic PushA significant fracture exists between the Lebanese government and the powerful militant group Hezbollah. While Aoun argues that the negotiations are necessary to protect the country, Hezbollah has described them as "losing concessions" and futile.Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's chief, has rejected the talks, insisting that no one has the right to steer Lebanon toward Israel without internal consensus. This internal division is further complicated by Iran, which has stressed that Lebanon must be included in broader truce discussions, creating a complex web of regional alliances that the US must navigate.Navigating the Gap Between Ceasefire and RealityThe most immediate threat to the success of Thursday's talks is the continued military activity on the ground. Despite the ceasefire announcement, Israel has continued to blow up neighbourhoods in border villages and struck targets in Bint Jbeil and Deir Siriane on Monday.While President Trump has publicly "prohibited" Israel from attacking Lebanon, the discrepancy between diplomatic proclamations and military actions suggests a deep mistrust. The upcoming talks face the challenge of addressing the ongoing ground offensive, which undermines the credibility of the ceasefire and complicates any potential diplomatic resolution.

The Frontline ParadoxMichael Watkins, a 50-year-old recovery advocate in Dallas, represents the human cost of the evolving opioid crisis. His work involves 'uninvited interventions'—door-knocking strangers within 72 hours of an overdose to offer Narcan and resources. Despite these grassroots efforts, the broader national strategy faces a critical juncture. While Dallas County saw fentanyl deaths drop from 280 in 2023 to 203 last year, a nationwide trend of decline has been complicated by a sudden shift in federal policy and the global supply chain of the drug.The Migration of Fentanyl PrecursorsA critical technical breakthrough in the supply chain has shifted the epicenter of fentanyl production. For years, the focus was on China, where companies like Yuancheng supplied precursor chemicals. However, a new paper in the journal Science suggests that China's crackdown on these companies led to a drop in overdose deaths. Now, the supply chain has migrated to India.The New Route: Precursor chemicals are now largely sourced from India's large, less-regulated pharmaceutical industry.The Destination: These chemicals are exported to Mexico, where they are used to manufacture the lethal drug before it crosses the US-Mexico border.The Blind Spot: Experts like Ben Westhoff argue that the US is 'behind the eight ball' because India is not currently on the radar of policymakers, despite the strong diplomatic relationship between the two nations.Funding Cuts and Data DisruptionThe progress made in reducing overdose deaths is now at risk due to severe federal budget cuts. The Trump administration has declared fentanyl a 'weapon of mass destruction,' yet simultaneously slashed hundreds of millions of dollars in addiction services.Massive Reductions: At least $1.7bn in block grants for state health departments and $350m in addiction prevention funding were cut.Staffing Crisis: The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) has reduced its staff by half.DOGE Impact: Elon Musk's DOGE team fired a team that rigorously tracked Americans' drug use for decades, creating a data vacuum that hampers response efforts.The Cost of Political RhetoricThe administration's militaristic approach, including military strikes on Venezuela (which does not produce fentanyl) and labeling cartels as 'terrorist organisations,' has drawn criticism from public health experts. Jonathan Caulkins of Carnegie Mellon University argues that labeling fentanyl a 'weapon of mass destruction' is a political move that hijacks a specific term and ignores the reality that cigarettes kill more Americans annually.Experts warn that this rhetoric further stigmatizes addiction, discouraging users from seeking help. While military tactics are necessary for interdiction, the consensus is that healthcare and local support services are equally critical for saving lives.Future Outlook: The India Blind SpotThe future of the fentanyl crisis in the US depends on addressing the new supply chain reality. As the precursor trade moves to India, the US must pivot its focus from China to the Indian subcontinent. Without increased funding for community organizations like the Recovery Resource Council and a strategic focus on Indian chemical regulation, the recent decline in overdose deaths could be short-lived. The 'uninvited interventions' of advocates like Michael Watkins will be vital, but they cannot replace the systemic support that federal funding provides.

The Escalating US-Iran Standoff United States President Donald Trump has claimed a second round of negotiations with Iran will take place in Pakistan on Tuesday as mediators try to revive negotiations before the end of an ongoing yet fragile two-week ceasefire. The announcement on Sunday came alongside a sharp escalation in rhetoric. Trump warned that Iran must agree to a deal "one way or another – the nice way or the hard way" and threatened to target key infrastructure if negotiations fail. He also renewed his threat of striking "bridges and power plants", which experts said could amount to war crimes under international law. Iran, however, has so far denied it will participate in the talks, accusing the US of "armed piracy" after US forces struck and seized an Iran-linked tanker on Sunday, further heightening tensions between the longtime adversaries. US Position and Demands On Sunday, Trump announced that US negotiators would travel to the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Monday for talks aimed at ending the US-Israel war on Iran. In a social media post, the president did not say which officials would be sent to the talks. Last weekend's first round of talks, at which Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, ended without a deal. Trump accused Iran of violating their two-week ceasefire, which is due to expire on Wednesday, by opening fire on Saturday in the Strait of Hormuz. The US president threatened to destroy civilian infrastructure in Iran if it doesn't accept the terms of the deal being offered by the US. "We're offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they take it because, if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge, in Iran," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. In a further escalation, Trump said an Iranian-flagged ship called the Touska was "stopped" by US forces in the Gulf of Oman "by blowing a hole in the engine room". He said it was trying to get past the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. US forces boarded the ship and took physical control of the vessel. Iran's Response and Position Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya military headquarters confirmed the US attack on the Iranian-flagged tanker and said it would "respond soon". Then, Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that Iranian forces had sent drones in the direction of US military ships. Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, told Al Jazeera that Iran's actions during talks with the US are strictly guided by national interests and security. When asked if Tehran intends to participate in the talks in Islamabad, he said, "Iran acts based on national interests." "We see the current negotiations as a continuation of the battlefield, and we see nothing other than the battlefield in this," he said. "If it yields achievements that sustain those of the battlefield, then the negotiation arena is also an opportunity for us … but not if the Americans intend to turn this into a field of excessive demands based on their bullying approach." Key Points of Friction Since the start of the war on February 28, a number of new sticking points have emerged – alongside old challenges: Strait of Hormuz Dispute A central dispute is over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route linking the Gulf to the Arabian Sea. One-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies were shipped through the strait before the war began. Iran insists on sovereignty over the waterway, which lies within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman and does not fall into international waters, and stated that only "nonhostile" ships could pass. It has also floated the idea of levying tolls while Washington demands full freedom of navigation. After the war began, Iran in effect closed the strait by forbidding transits, attacking ships and reportedly laying sea mines. Shipping traffic has since dropped by 95 percent. A week ago, the US implemented a blockade of its own. Its Navy has been blocking Iranian ports to pressure Tehran to reopen the vital waterway, adding another obstacle to the talks. According to Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King's College London, Trump's stance on the strait has shifted during the conflict and remains unclear. "We've had Trump say that he would be open to jointly controlling the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, where both sides collect a toll for shipping," Geist Pinfold noted, calling this "completely different to the demands of the US on paper but also the demands of the US's regional allies like the Gulf states and Israel, … who would regard any deal that entrenches Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz … as a stab in the back". "This isn't just between the US and Iran. It's about the US having to keep its regional allies on side," Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera. Nuclear Enrichment Standoff Another core issue is Iran's nuclear programme, particularly its stock of enriched uranium. The US and Israel are pushing for zero uranium enrichment and have accused Iran of working towards building a nuclear weapon while providing no evidence for their claims. Iran has insisted its enrichment effort is for civilian purposes only. It is a signatory to the 1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). In 2015, the US was a signatory to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under then-US President Barack Obama. In that agreement, Iran pledged to limit its uranium enrichment to 3.67 per cent, which is substantially below weapons grade, and to comply with inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to insure it wasn't developing nuclear weapons. In return, international sanctions on Iran were lifted. However, in 2018, during his first term, Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA despite the IAEA saying Iran had complied with the agreement up to that point. In March 2025, Tulsi Gabbard, the US director of national intelligence, testified to Congress that the US "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon". A month later, the IAEA estimated that Iran had 440kg (970lb) of 60-percent enriched uranium. While that is also below weapons grade, it is a short jump to achieve the 90-percent purity needed for atomic weapons production. On Sunday, in strongly worded comments, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Trump had no justification to ⁠⁠"deprive" Iran of its nuclear ⁠⁠rights. Maryam Jamshidi, a law professor at the University of Colorado in Boulder, said Iran's position on enrichment is based on Article IV of the NPT, "which recognises that all state parties [to the treaty] have the inalienable right to research, develop and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes". "In demanding that Iran have no enrichment, the United States is denying Iran its rights under this treaty," she told Al Jazeera. "In insisting that its right to enrichment be preserved, Iran is expressing a reasonable desire to be treated the same as any other state under international law." Lebanon Conflict Complicates Talks Two days after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28, in which Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei was killed, the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon began firing rockets and drones into northern Israel, and Israel struck back, launching an invasion into southern Lebanon. Iran is adamant that its ceasefire with the US extends to Lebanon and is demanding Israel end its offensive against its ally Hezbollah and its invasion of Lebanon. After initially denying the two-week ceasefire included Lebanon, Israel accepted a 10-day truce starting on Thursday night after direct Israel-Lebanon talks. However, that ceasefire is also teetering on collapse amid renewed hostilities. On Monday, the Israeli military claimed that it struck a loaded launch system in the Kfarkela area of southern Lebanon overnight while Hezbollah claimed responsibility for multiple explosions that it said hit a convoy of eight Israeli armoured vehicles, also in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is Tehran's most powerful ally in the region and a central part of its "axis of resistance", a network of armed groups across the Middle East aligned with Iran against Israel. The network also includes Yemen's Houthis and a collection of armed groups in Iraq. Evolving US Demands Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran had always insisted negotiations be exclusively focused on Iran's nuclear programme. US demands, however, have extended beyond the nuclear file. Before the war, Washington and Israel demanded severe restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile programme. Iran has said its ability to maintain its missile capabilities is non-negotiable. On February 25, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran's refusal to discuss its missile programme was a "big problem". Yet, since the two-week ceasefire was announced on April 8 and the Pakistan-brokered negotiations began, the US has not made any mention of Iran's ballistic missiles, which have been a major feature in Iran's retaliation against US and Israeli forces. Regime Change and Proxy Support The US and Israel have also made no secret of their desire for a change in Iran's government. Asked two weeks before the war began if he wished for a toppling of the government in Tehran, Trump said: "Seems like that would be the best thing that could happen." After the killing of Khamenei and multiple other senior Iranian leaders, Trump claimed the US-Israel war had in effect brought about "regime change", claiming key leadership layers were "decimated". Experts, however, disputed Trump's assertions, saying the government was very much intact, if not stronger. Salar Mohandesi, a professor at Bowdoin College in Maine, argued that despite US claims, what is happening in Iran does not meet any serious definition of "regime change". "The fundamental structures of the Islamic Republic are intact, and the new leaders are regime loyalists who are arguably more hardline than their assassinated predecessors," he told Al Jazeera. Mohandesi said the war has arguably strengthened the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), something that is an "acceleration of an existing" trend and does not necessarily amount to regime change, "certainly not in the way Trump means it". "Trump's declaration that he has succeeded in 'regime change' is just a rhetorical move to try to claim victory where none exists," he added. Proxy Group Support Three days before the war began during his State of the Union address to the US Congress, Trump accused Iran and "its murderous proxies" of spreading "nothing but terrorism and death and hate". The US and Israel have long demanded Iran stop supporting its nonstate allies – primarily Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and a number of groups in Iraq. Tehran to date has refused to enter into any dialogue about limiting its support for these armed groups. But on Friday, Trump claimed Iran had agreed to almost all of the US demands, including support for its proxies. A statement by Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected that any such agreement was in place, saying: "The Americans talk excessively and create noise around the situation. Do not be misled!" Prospects for a Breakthrough On Sunday, Iran's top negotiator and speaker of its parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, acknowledged that while "conclusions" had been reached on some issues, "we are far from a final agreement." Analyst Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera that deep divisions between the US and Iran make a comprehensive deal unlikely in the near term despite some openings created by Trump's shifting positions. "The primary complication that would mean a deal is less likely but also one of the potential curveballs that would make a deal more likely is the Trump administration's equivocations regarding what its red lines actually are," he said. "At the moment, the gaps look insurmountable," Geist Pinfold added, noting that "the best-case scenario would be the extension of the ceasefire rather than the actual deal." The US-Iran talks face major structural obstacles despite growing speculation about a negotiated end to the current crisis, according to Bowdoin College's Mohandesi. "Donald Trump feels that he needs to somehow convert this disastrous defeat into some sort of win," he noted, adding: "It's unclear what that would look like at the negotiating table." On the Iranian side, Mohandesi sees little room for compromise on the core strategic issues. "Iran will absolutely not abandon its missile programme. It will not stop supporting its allies in the region, and it will almost certainly not agree to zero enrichment," he said. The academic questioned whether even a restoration of maritime traffic would constitute meaningful success for Washington. Even if Trump "were to somehow convince Iran to return the Strait of Hormuz to the pre-war status quo, it's unclear how that would be a major win since the strait was open before he started the war", Mohandesi said.