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Shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains effectively halted even after Washington and Tehran announced a two‑week ceasefire on Tuesday, dampening expectations of a swift end to one of the most severe energy disruptions in recent memory. According to ship‑tracking data from market‑intelligence firm Kpler, only five vessels crossed the waterway on Wednesday, down from eleven the day before, and seven managed the passage on Thursday. The figure is a stark contrast to the pre‑conflict norm of 120‑140 daily transits that the strait typically handled before the February 28 attacks by the United States and Israel. More than 600 vessels, including 325 tankers, are still stranded in the Gulf, as reported by Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Ana Subasic, Kpler’s trade‑risk analyst, warned that even if the ceasefire holds, safe‑passage capacity is likely to stay limited to 10–15 ships per day, reflecting shipowners’ caution and the absence of any toll‑free guarantee. The strait channels roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supplies. Its continued blockage therefore sustains pressure on global energy markets. After a brief dip, Brent crude rose to $96.39 a barrel at 02:00 GMT on Friday, having slipped below $95 the previous day. U.S. President Donald Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire’s “safe passage” clause, labeling Tehran’s performance “very poor” in a Truth Social post. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, countered that the United States had not honored its commitments, urging Washington to choose between a genuine ceasefire and “continued war” linked to Israel’s actions in Lebanon. Maritime veteran C Uday Bhaskar described the atmosphere in the strait as one of “uncertainty and anxiety,” noting that shipping firms remain fearful, especially after Iranian statements about newly laid mines. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of the UAE’s state‑run oil giant ADNOC, echoed the sentiment, asserting that Iran’s conditional permissions amount to “coercion, not freedom of navigation.” Asian equity markets responded positively to the tentative easing of oil price pressure. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.8 %, South Korea’s KOSPI rose about 2 %, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained roughly 1 % in early Friday trading. While the ceasefire offers a diplomatic window, the reality on the water remains stark: the Strait of Hormuz is far from open, and the global energy system continues to feel the strain of constrained maritime traffic.

Ecuador's government, led by President Daniel Noboa, has imposed 100% tariffs on imports from Colombia, effective May 1. This decision comes as a response to what Ecuador sees as Colombia's inadequate efforts to combat drug trafficking and improve border security.The move is the latest escalation in a months-long feud between the right-wing Noboa and his left-wing counterpart in Colombia, Gustavo Petro. Ecuador's Ministry of Production justified the tariff hike as a necessary measure to confront drug trafficking on the border and protect its citizens and territory.This is not the first tariff imposed by Ecuador on Colombian goods. Previously, Ecuador had slapped 50% tariffs on Colombian exports as of March, which was a spike from a 30% tariff rate announced in January. Colombia has responded by suspending cross-border energy sales and imposing retaliatory tariffs on certain Ecuadorian products.The tensions between Ecuador and Colombia are further complicated by Petro's 'Total Peace' policy, which involves negotiations with rebel groups and criminal networks. This approach has been met with criticism from right-wing leaders like Noboa and US President Donald Trump, who have accused Petro of not doing enough to tackle drug trafficking.The situation has also been influenced by US-Colombia relations, with the Trump administration decertifying Colombia as an ally in its 'war on drugs' and sanctioning Petro and his family. Noboa has echoed Trump's stance on several foreign policy issues, including pressure on left-wing governments in the region.

In the closing weeks of Peru's presidential contest, the candidate who positioned himself as a staunch ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump has experienced a noticeable decline in poll numbers. Once touted as a frontrunner, his campaign now faces dwindling enthusiasm among undecided voters and a resurgence of support for rival contenders.Political analysts attribute the downturn to a combination of factors, including heightened scrutiny of the candidate's policy proposals, concerns over potential alignment with foreign interests, and a broader voter backlash against polarizing rhetoric. The shift underscores the volatility of Peru's electorate as it approaches a decisive electoral moment.Observers note that the candidate's decline could reshape the final electoral calculus, potentially benefiting centrist and left‑leaning opponents who have capitalized on the growing demand for stability and domestic-focused governance.

US Vice President JD Vance has departed for Pakistan to engage in crucial talks with Iran, seeking to bring an end to the ongoing US-Israeli war. Vance expressed optimism about the negotiations, stating that he expects 'positive' results from the discussions.Vance's trip comes at a critical juncture, with the conflict showing no signs of abating. The US and Israel launched a war on Iran on February 28, which has resulted in significant damage to Iran's nuclear sites. President Donald Trump has given Vance clear guidelines for the meeting, emphasizing the need for a peaceful resolution.The talks in Pakistan will involve Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. However, it remains unclear if any representative from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will attend. The format of the negotiations and whether the US and Iranian officials will speak face-to-face or through intermediaries have not been disclosed.Trust issues remain a significant hurdle in the negotiations. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Majid Takht Ravanchi, expressed wariness about the talks, citing concerns that they could be used as a deception to cover renewed escalation in fighting. Iran seeks an agreement with guarantees that it will not be attacked again.The negotiations in Pakistan are seen as a critical step towards resolving the conflict. Both sides appear to be miles apart, with tremendous amounts of mistrust. However, according to Ali Vaez, the Iran project manager at the International Crisis Group, every option possible has been tried, and both sides have ended up in a lose-lose scenario. Vaez emphasized that it is essential for both sides to be practical and realize that concessions at the negotiating table are necessary to avoid further conflict.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Spain will no longer take part in the Gaza ceasefire coordination centre, labeling Madrid’s actions as a diplomatic assault on Israel.In a video posted on X, Netanyahu warned that Israel will not stay silent when faced with what he described as attacks on its legitimacy.Foreign Minister Gideon Saar echoed the prime minister’s sentiment, condemning Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez for allegedly spreading "blood libels" against the Israeli Defence Forces.Saar added on X that Spain’s persistent anti‑Israel stance under Sánchez has rendered it incapable of contributing constructively to the U.S. President’s peace initiative and the operations of the coordination centre.Relations have deteriorated since Israel’s October 2023 offensive in Gaza, after which Spain recognised a Palestinian state and repeatedly criticised Israel’s conduct. Sánchez’s government also opposed the U.S.–Israel campaign against Iran and even closed Spanish airspace to U.S. warplanes involved in that conflict.The Civil‑Military Coordination Centre (CMCC), a U.S.–led facility created under former President Donald Trump’s 20‑point plan, serves to monitor the declared ceasefire and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid to the enclave.Despite the formal ceasefire, Israel continues to conduct near‑daily strikes in Gaza, and significant constraints on aid shipments remain in place.

The United States team landed in Islamabad on Friday, gearing up for Saturday’s planned cease‑fire talks with Iran aimed at pausing the ongoing US‑Israel‑Iran conflict.New friction erupted on Friday when senior officials from both sides exchanged conflicting accounts of a 10‑point Iranian proposal that underpinned Tuesday’s temporary pause in hostilities.Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned on X that two critical measures—a cease‑fire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets—remain unfulfilled, insisting they must be addressed before negotiations can proceed.Ghalibaf, who is slated to attend the summit alongside Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, echoed the Iranian military’s joint command warning that its “fingers are on the trigger” after what it described as repeated “breaches of trust” by the United States and Israel.Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric, telling the New York Post that the U.S. is loading ships with the “best weapons ever made” and will employ them “very effectively” if a deal is not reached. In subsequent Truth Social posts, he dismissed Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as a “short‑term extortion” and claimed the Iranians are “alive today only to negotiate.”The Trump administration credits Tuesday’s cease‑fire agreement with averting a larger U.S. escalation, yet it has not disclosed the exact framework agreed upon, noting it differs from Iran’s published 10‑point plan.Analysts point to substantial gaps between the parties on several fronts: Iran’s future control of the Strait of Hormuz, the status of frozen Iranian assets, the trajectory of Iran’s nuclear program, and Israel’s ongoing offensive in Lebanon.U.S. and Israeli officials assert that a Lebanese cease‑fire was never part of the deal, contradicting Iran and Pakistan’s position. Nonetheless, President Trump told an Israeli reporter that he urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make Israeli operations against Hezbollah “more low‑key” ahead of the talks.Israeli strikes continued, killing at least 300 people nationwide on Wednesday—the deadliest day of the offensive—while Al Jazeera’s correspondent reported no slowdown in southern Lebanon’s fighting. Kuwait also reported intercepting seven drones launched from Iran into its airspace within 24 hours.Despite the heightened rhetoric, U.S. Vice President JD Vance expressed optimism, stating he expects a “positive” outcome from the negotiations and that he has received “pretty clear guidelines” from President Trump. Vance emphasized that the United States is ready to extend an “open hand” to Iran if it negotiates in good faith, but warned that any attempt to “play us” would meet a “non‑receptive” negotiating team.Vance’s leadership reflects a non‑interventionist strand of the Trump administration, stepping in as Iran’s trust in special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son‑in‑law Jared Kushner has eroded. Witkoff and Kushner previously headed two rounds of indirect talks on Iran’s nuclear program, both of which collapsed—first after Israel launched a 12‑day war on Iran in June 2025, and again after the latest war erupted on February 28.

The US Court of International Trade is hearing oral arguments in a case aimed at overturning President Donald Trump's global import tariffs. The tariffs, which were imposed in February, have been met with opposition from several US states and small businesses.The plaintiffs, including 24 mostly Democratic-led states and two small businesses, argue that the 10% global import tax sidesteps a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated most of Trump's previous tariffs. They claim that the tariffs are based on archaic authority meant to protect the US dollar from sudden depreciation in the 1970s, not to address routine trade deficits.Oregon's lawyer, Brian Marshall, told the judges that they should block the tariffs rather than let them expire on the normal 150-day timeline, to prevent Trump from invoking laws to keep them indefinitely. "[If] we have a successive series where there's always tariffs in place, that's a problem," Marshall said.The Trump administration has argued that the global tariffs are a legal and appropriate response to a persistent trade deficit caused by the fact that the US imports more goods than it exports. "President Trump is lawfully using the executive powers granted to him by Congress to address our country's balance of payments crisis," White House spokesperson Kush Desai said.The case is significant as it challenges Trump's use of Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which authorises duties of up to 15% for up to 150 days on imports during "large and serious United States balance-of-payments deficits" or to prevent imminent depreciation of the dollar.

JD Vance, the United States vice‑president, issued a stark warning to Tehran as he boarded Air Force Two for Pakistan: Iran must not attempt to "play" the United States at the peace talks scheduled for Saturday in Islamabad. The talks, mediated by Pakistan, could determine whether the fragile ceasefire in the region holds or if hostilities resume, with significant repercussions for the global economy, especially oil markets. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and foreign minister Abbas Araghchi have conditioned their participation on two unmet measures: a full ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets. Ghalibaf posted on X that "Two of the measures mutually agreed upon between the parties have yet to be implemented." Uncertainty lingered on Friday night about whether the Iranian delegation would even travel to Islamabad. Earlier reports indicated that Israel had removed the Iranian officials from its bombing target list at Washington’s request. Meanwhile, Donald Trump amplified the tension, telling the New York Post that U.S. forces were "loading up the ships with the best ammunition" and would use them if negotiations failed. He later posted that Iran "has no cards" except short‑term extortion of international waterways. The backdrop to the talks is a worsening Lebanon‑Israel confrontation. More than 300 Lebanese civilians have been killed since the ceasefire began, and 13 Lebanese security personnel died in an Israeli strike on a government building in Nabatieh. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dispute whether the April 7 ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran includes Lebanon, and Israel continues bombing Hezbollah‑linked targets despite Netanyahu’s earlier statements about opening negotiations with the Lebanese government. Oil markets have felt the shock. The February 28 U.S.–Israeli strike on Iran and Tehran’s subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz—shutting off roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas—triggered a sharp price spike, adding political pressure ahead of the November U.S. congressional elections. Vance, however, expressed optimism as he departed for Islamabad: "We’re looking forward to the negotiation. I think it’s going to be positive. If the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we’re certainly willing to extend the open hand." He added, "If they’re going to try and play us, then they’ll find the negotiating team is not that receptive." The U.S. delegation also includes senior adviser Steve Witkoff and former senior adviser Jared Kushner, both of whom participated in earlier talks on Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes before the February attack. Negotiations are expected to focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the future of Iran’s nuclear program, potential sanctions relief, reparations for war damage, and the release of Americans detained in Iran, according to the Washington Post. Advance teams from the United States and Iran have already taken up rooms at Islamabad’s five‑star Serena hotel, with Pakistani officials acting as intermediaries. Security forces have established a two‑mile perimeter around the hotel, declared a public holiday, and locked down the city centre to ensure a safe environment for the high‑stakes mediation. Hezbollah, while not commenting directly on the Lebanese‑Israeli negotiations, issued a statement urging the Lebanese government to stop "making gratuitous concessions" and vowed to continue fighting to "expel the occupier." The Lebanese army has reinforced its presence in Beirut following an Israeli strike that killed at least 303 people. Fighting persists in southern Lebanon, with Hezbollah claiming to have struck Israeli soldiers near Bint Jbeil—a town symbolic of resistance from the 2006 war—and launching rockets into Israel throughout Friday. Israel’s airstrikes across Lebanon have intensified, culminating in the Nabatieh attack that killed the highest number of Lebanese security forces to date.

Jonathan Freedland contends that the record of Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent wartime conduct is one of stark failure, despite the spotlight it has received alongside former U.S. President Donald Trump.While Trump has dominated headlines with his rhetoric on Iran and a self‑announced cease‑fire, Netanyahu has quietly overseen a continuation of hostilities across the region. Israel’s air campaign on Lebanon—the most lethal single strike in recent memory—targeted roughly 100 sites in a ten‑minute window, leaving at least 303 dead and more than 1,150 injured, many of them civilians.Israel maintains that the U.S.‑brokered deal with Tehran does not extend to Lebanon, a claim disputed by Iran and Pakistani mediators. Netanyahu, meanwhile, has pledged to sustain “full‑force” attacks on what Israel labels Hezbollah launch positions, even as he publicly agrees to diplomatic talks with Beirut.Internationally, Netanyahu is already wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes in Gaza, and his reputation abroad is that of a war‑time villain. Domestically, his supporters still view him as a security hawk, a perception that matters most as Israel faces elections no later than 27 October.Freedland highlights that the October 7, 2023 Hamas onslaught—Israel’s deadliest terrorist attack—occurred under Netanyahu’s watch, a fact that would have toppled most leaders in comparable democracies. Yet the prime minister promised “total victory” over Hamas, a promise that remains unfulfilled after a two‑year bombardment that has claimed roughly 70,000 lives in Gaza while leaving Hamas in control of the enclave’s unoccupied areas.Claims of having neutralised Hezbollah have also proved hollow. Although Israel announced the death of the group’s leader, Hezbollah continues to rebuild its arsenal and resumed rocket fire, undermining the narrative of a decisive Israeli triumph.Similarly, the 12‑day 2025‑2026 confrontation with Iran—branded by Trump as an obliteration of Tehran’s nuclear programme and by Netanyahu as a historic victory—has not diminished Iran’s strategic capabilities. The nation still possesses enriched uranium, a robust missile stockpile, and the ability to threaten global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively holding a lever over the world economy.Freedland argues that Netanyahu’s doctrine of perpetual military pressure yields only temporary relief, likening it to repeatedly cutting off a snake’s head only for it to regrow. Former Israeli general‑turned‑politician Yair Golan is quoted as saying that Netanyahu “does not know how to translate battlefield successes into lasting political security.”The human cost of this approach is evident not only in the casualties of Gaza, the Bekaa Valley and Israeli cities, but also in Israel’s deteriorating diplomatic standing. Recent legislation in the Knesset—pushed by far‑right minister Itamar Ben‑Gvir and supported by Netanyahu—introduces a death‑penalty provision for Palestinians convicted of terrorism, a move condemned internationally as discriminatory.As Israelis endure nightly bomb‑shelter drills and semi‑lockdown conditions, the electorate faces a stark choice. Polls suggest that even if Netanyahu is ousted, his successor may continue a similar hard‑line stance, albeit with different execution. Freedland concludes that Israel’s long‑term security cannot rely solely on force; a negotiated accommodation with neighbours, especially the Palestinians, may finally become politically viable after the exposure of Netanyahu’s repeated strategic failures.