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The US-Israel war on Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for materials used in the production of various everyday products. As the conflict enters its fifth week, global oil shortages are forcing countries to take severe measures to conserve their reserves. While US gas prices have surged to their highest level in years, the impact of rising oil prices extends far beyond drivers. Oil is a crucial component in the supply chain, powering machines that manufacture goods and fueling trucks that transport them to stores. The price increases come at a time when many Americans are already strained by rising housing costs, grocery bills, and electricity statements. A recent Gallup poll found that a third of Americans have had to skip meals and forego other needs to afford their healthcare. Oil and Gas The average cost of gas in the US has jumped about 30% over the last month, with the national average hitting $3.97, the highest since 2023. Diesel, which fuels many trucks transporting goods, has increased by about 50%, or $1.69 more than it did a year ago. Higher diesel costs could soon affect transportation costs and grocery prices, as roughly 85% of agricultural goods are transported by trucks. The impact of oil and gas shortages on the supply chain can be categorized as first-order effects, such as higher prices at the gas pump, and second-order effects, including potential price increases for crops, semiconductor chips, and medical devices. Fertilizer Farmers are struggling as the spring growing season approaches, facing higher fertilizer costs and falling commodity prices. A third of global urea trade, a solid nitrogen fertilizer, passes through the Middle East region, with about 20% of imported fertilizer to the US coming from Qatar. Nitrogen fertilizer is critical to grow corn, which is cultivated by about 500,000 farmers in the US. The White House has promised to minimize disruptions to the US economy, with alternative sources of fertilizer being sought from around the world. Helium The conflict has disrupted the global helium supply after Iranian attacks in Qatar, the second-largest producer of helium after the United States. Helium is a key import used in aerospace, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and semiconductor chips that power AI. Jet Fuel Increases in oil prices could result in higher airfare and shipping costs. The price of jet fuel has doubled since the start of the war, according to the International Air Transport Association. United Airlines announced last Friday that it would have to cut flights due to the surging cost of fuel. < h2>Mortgage Rates Just as US mortgages were starting to fall in February, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked up to its highest level in months, reaching 6.22%. Mortgage rates are closely tied to the overall state of the economy, and the US Federal Reserve's decision to leave rates unchanged last week cited uncertainty in the economy, particularly with conflict in the Middle East.

The ongoing conflict between Iran and the US-Israel alliance has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for about a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies and a third of global fertilisers necessary for food production.Before the conflict, an average of 138 ships a day transited the strait. However, following the escalation, 100 vessels have exited the Gulf and only 40 have entered in the past month, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.Despite over 20 reported attacks on ships in the region, including near-misses and damage to vessels, some ships are still attempting to cross, with Iran permitting 'non-hostile vessels' to use a 'safe corridor' in its territorial waters. This route allows Iranian authorities to visually verify vessels and potentially demand payment for safe passage.The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has raised concerns about the 20,000 seafarers stranded in stressful conditions with dwindling supplies. Over 30 countries have agreed to work together to safeguard the strait, with the UK offering to host an international security summit to devise a plan to reopen it.

The deadly conflict in Iran has precipitated what the International Energy Agency describes as the worst oil crisis in history, creating a complex situation for global clean energy efforts. While climate advocates are calling for accelerated transition away from fossil fuels, the war simultaneously presents both opportunities and significant challenges for renewable energy development.US-Israeli strikes on Iran have critically disrupted supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime channel through which 20% of global oil flows. The conflict has also seen direct attacks on fossil fuel infrastructure by all parties involved, creating additional market shocks and uncertainty.Interestingly, reduced reliance on oil and gas is proving beneficial for some regions navigating the ongoing fuel crisis. As Jan Rosenow, a professor of energy at Oxford University, explains: Electricity generated from wind and solar is largely insulated from fossil fuel price volatility – once built, the fuel is free.Countries with substantial renewable energy investments are demonstrating greater resilience. Spain and Portugal have witnessed electricity prices decline in recent weeks, while Pakistan has experienced a surge in rooftop solar installations over the past five years, helping the nation weather oil and gas market disruptions.The electric vehicle revolution is also providing some economies with protection against gasoline price increases. In China, more than 50% of all new cars sold are electric, while in Nepal, that figure reaches an impressive 70%.However, the war is creating near-term challenges that could impede clean energy growth. The conflict has disrupted transport routes for metals essential in solar panel construction, particularly aluminum. The Middle East accounts for approximately 9% of global aluminum production, and regional producers have begun scaling back operations amid the hostilities.Furthermore, the inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict pose significant hurdles for renewable energy projects, which require substantial upfront investment for construction, equipment, and installation.Paradoxically, the war and resulting energy shocks have provided a short-term boon for fossil fuels, including coal. Many Asian countries heavily reliant on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) are burning more coal to meet energy demand as LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz become constrained.The conflict has also incentivized increased oil and gas drilling and exploration, as countries scramble to replace disrupted LNG supplies and higher prices make previously unviable projects economically viable. US company Venture Global recently announced a new five-year contract to supply LNG, while Canadian energy company TC Energy indicated that Iran war disruptions are increasing the likelihood of expanding a massive LNG export facility.The Trump administration has further incentivized oil expansion, recently announcing plans to pay a French company $1 billion to abandon offshore wind farm projects in favor of fossil fuel initiatives.Experts propose various policy responses to encourage the green transition during this crisis. Rosenow advocates for tax reform to reduce the disproportionate burden on electricity compared to gas. Professor Gregor Semieniuk suggests imposing windfall taxes on oil and gas companies during the war, while Lauren Pagel of Earthworks calls for ending fossil fuel subsidies and making polluters pay for their environmental impact.Despite the current challenges, Kingsmill Bond, a strategist for the energy thinktank Ember, maintains that this crisis could ultimately accelerate the clean energy transition: This is the first oil shock in history where oil faces a superior alternative. Solar, wind and EV are cheaper, local, faster to deploy, and huge.

Google has issued a warning that quantum computers could potentially break most existing encryption systems by 2029, posing a significant threat to current cryptographic standards. The tech giant is urging banks, governments, and technology providers to prepare for this emerging threat.In a blog post, Google stated that the encryption currently used to keep information confidential and secure could easily be broken by a large-scale quantum computer in the coming years. The company, owned by Alphabet, emphasized the need for post-quantum cryptography migration to protect sensitive data.While quantum computers are still a nascent technology, Google, Microsoft, and universities across the UK and the US are actively building systems that harness the physics of quantum mechanics to perform extremely sophisticated mathematical calculations. However, constructing a powerful quantum computer with hundreds of thousands or even millions of stable qubits remains a significant technological challenge.Leonie Mueck, formerly the chief product officer of Riverlane, a Cambridge-based quantum startup, noted that Google's statement does not necessarily mean a working quantum computer capable of breaking encryption will definitely exist by 2029. Most timelines for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer range from the 2030s to the 2050s.Despite this, governments and organizations are already preparing for the eventuality that data stored to today's encryption standards would be exposed when the technology sufficiently advances. The UK's cybersecurity agency, the National Cyber Security Centre, has urged organizations to guard their systems against quantum hackers by 2035.Google's timeline suggests that engineering teams across the technology industry should consider measures to protect sensitive data by migrating to more advanced encryption systems now. Certain kinds of attacks predicated on the future availability of quantum decryption – “store now, decrypt later” – may currently be being deployed across the field.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has issued a dire warning about a health crisis unfolding in real time across the Middle East, emphasizing the urgent need for a complete cessation of hostilities to mitigate the humanitarian catastrophe.Dr. Hanan Balkhy, the WHO's regional director for the Eastern Mediterranean, stressed that hospitals and healthcare facilities must be treated as safe havens to protect patients and healthcare workers. The region, encompassing 22 countries and territories including Iran, Gulf states, Gaza, Sudan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, is facing severe disruptions in healthcare services due to the ongoing conflicts.The violence has resulted in significant loss of life and displacement, with over 1,000 people killed in Lebanon, 1,500 in Iran, and 16 in Israel, alongside reports of numerous deaths in the West Bank and Gulf Arab states. Moreover, 3.2 million people have been displaced in Iran and over 1 million in Lebanon within a month, exacerbating the crisis.Balkhy expressed deep concern about the long-term impacts on maternal mortality, mental health, and the plight of orphaned children left without education. The WHO has verified dozens of attacks on healthcare facilities in Lebanon, Iran, and Israel since the conflict began, including a recent attack on a hospital in Sudan that killed at least 70 people.The organization is also preparing for potential attacks on nuclear sites and water desalination plants, which could have catastrophic health repercussions. Balkhy urged for a significant de-escalation or a permanent pause in hostilities to prevent further humanitarian disaster.

Sir Paul Marshall, the co-owner of GB News and a self-described 'committed' Christian, has been criticized by a group of 100 church leaders over the TV channel's attacks on climate science and action. The leaders, including former Archbishop of Canterbury Rowan Williams, argue that Marshall's statements on climate change are misleading and that his hedge fund's £1.8bn investments in fossil fuels present a conflict of interest.Marshall has stated that the UK has been infected by 'climate derangement syndrome' and that efforts to cut planet-heating emissions are 'impoverishing people.' In response, the church leaders emphasized that 100% of global heating since 1950 has been caused by human emissions and activities, according to the world's climate scientists. They also noted that decarbonization is a huge growth opportunity that will save trillions of dollars in the long term.The leaders, in an open letter, urged Marshall to be transparent about any personal conflicts of interest and to declare his financial interests in fossil fuels. They cited research that found GB News broadcast 953 attacks on climate science and climate action in the period immediately before and after the 2024 general election.Marshall responded that 'the Gospel entreats us to look after the vulnerable' but argued that pursuing an 'ideological' net zero policy was 'a path of unilateral economic disarmament and self-harm.' He also stated that he was not involved in the editorial decisions of GB News, which has lost £131m since its launch in 2021.The Christian leaders' criticism of Marshall and GB News highlights the ongoing debate over climate change and the role of media outlets in shaping public discourse on the issue. As more than 100 countries have net zero policies and the UK's net zero economy grew by 10% in 2024, the pressure on media outlets to provide accurate and responsible reporting on climate issues continues to grow.

US President Donald Trump has reiterated claims that negotiations are underway with Iran, contradicting Tehran's assertion that such claims are 'fake news'. This development comes amid heightened tensions between the US and Iran.In a recent escalation of hostilities, at least 12 people were killed and 28 wounded in an airstrike targeting southern Tehran. The incident is part of a series of US and Israeli attacks on Iranian territory.The situation underscores the fragile state of US-Iran relations, with both sides engaging in a war of words and actions. Trump's claims of ongoing talks with Iran have not been substantiated, adding to the uncertainty and heightened tensions in the region.

QatarEnergy has invoked force majeure on certain long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply contracts, impacting customers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China. This decision comes as the company faces production and supply disruptions due to the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran.The force majeure clause, commonly included in contracts, allows a party to be excused from its obligations under unforeseen circumstances. This is not an isolated incident, as petroleum companies in Kuwait and Bahrain have also recently invoked force majeure.The global energy market has been significantly affected since the US and Israel began their attacks on Iran on February 28. Iranian missile and drone strikes across the Middle East, particularly in the Gulf region, have targeted crucial oil and gas facilities. These actions have led to international condemnation and have essentially closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG supplies pass.QatarEnergy's CEO, Saad al-Kaabi, recently reported that an Iranian attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan gas facility resulted in the loss of about 17 percent of the country's LNG export capacity. This damage is expected to cause an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatens supplies to Europe and Asia. The repairs are anticipated to sideline 12.8 million tonnes of LNG production per year for three to five years.The conflict escalated after the Israeli military targeted Iran's offshore South Pars gasfield, prompting Qatar and other Gulf countries to condemn the attacks on energy infrastructure. These actions are viewed as threats to global energy security and violate international law and the United Nations Charter.

US President Donald Trump has asserted that negotiations to end the war on Iran are ongoing, claiming Tehran is eager to make a deal. Speaking at the White House, Trump stated the US is talking to 'the right people' about a potential agreement, mentioning a 'very big present' related to 'oil and gas' allegedly gifted by Tehran. Trump's claims come as fighting continues, with Iran launching attacks on Israel and a strike near Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant. Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, had previously dismissed Trump's claims as 'fake news.' Media reports suggest Washington has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, which includes ending Iran's nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 61% of Americans disapprove of the attacks on Iran, while 35% approve. Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs acknowledged receiving messages from 'friendly countries' indicating a US request for negotiations. Negar Mortazavi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, stated Iran would seek to end the war on its 'own terms,' including establishing deterrence and economic gains. Despite Trump's diplomatic efforts, Israeli military spokesman Effie Defrin said Israel's war plan remains 'unchanged,' aiming to 'deepen the damage and remove existential threats.' The US is reportedly preparing to send thousands of soldiers to the Middle East, fueling fears of a longer conflict.