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The EU's Stalled Response to Israeli ActionsSpain, Ireland and Slovenia have mounted a renewed push to suspend the European Union's trade and cooperation pact with Israel at a meeting of EU foreign ministers before being shot down by Germany and Italy, which vetoed the move. Despite growing calls to hold the Israeli government accountable for its actions in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, Europe is deeply divided over its approach to Israel."Today, Europe's credibility is at stake," Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares told reporters before Tuesday's meeting in Luxembourg. "I expect every European country to uphold what the International Court of Justice and the UN say on human rights and the defence of international law. Anything different would be a defeat for the European Union."But German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul called Spain's request "inappropriate", saying any issues should instead be discussed in a "critical, constructive dialogue with Israel".The Genocide War and International Law ConcernsThe main factor behind the current disquiet over Israel within Europe is the genocidal war on Gaza, in which more than 72,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 2023 while thousands more are missing and feared dead under the rubble. Israel has destroyed most of Gaza's infrastructure, and a genocide case has been brought against it before the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Meanwhile, there has been an unprecedented expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, which are built on Palestinian land and violate international law.More recently, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition government has succeeded in passing a death penalty law that in practice applies only to Palestinians and is engaged in a legal and political campaign to restrict European funding for Israeli and Palestinian nongovernmental organisations that document human rights abuses.The 42.6 Billion Euro Trade AgreementOne obvious target for those opposed to Israel's actions is the EU-Israel Association Agreement, which came into force in 2000. This is the legal framework for political, economic and cultural relations between the EU and Israel. It grants Israel highly lucrative privileges, including preferential access to the vast European market with low tariffs on industrial and other goods.The pact contains a strict human rights clause, however. Article 2 states that relations must be based on respect for human rights and democratic principles – and this is what has attracted the attention of activists.Hosni Abidi, a professor of international relations at the University of Geneva, noted that civil society is already mobilising around this clause. "More than 1 million signatures from European citizens have reached the European Commission demanding the suspension of the agreement," Abidi told Al Jazeera, adding that Israel is in clear breach of the pact's foundational text.According to EU data, trade in goods between the bloc and Israel amounted to 42.6 billion euros ($45.3bn) in 2024. A partial suspension of the EU-Israel agreement could directly impact about 5.8 billion euros ($6.1bn) worth of Israeli exports.Beyond trade, the pact is also vital to sustaining Israel's technological edge. Mohanad Mustafa, an academic and expert on Israeli affairs, pointed out that Israeli scientific research relies almost entirely on EU funding. "Without European support, scientific research and development in Israel would collapse completely," he told Al Jazeera.Historical Divisions and Political CalculationsThe primary obstacle to suspending this agreement lies in the EU's complex voting mechanisms and the deep internal divisions over Israel that are rooted in different national histories.A full suspension would require a unanimous decision from all 27 member states, which is currently impossible. Suspending only the lucrative commercial arrangements requires a "qualified majority" of at least 15 EU countries, representing 65 percent of the EU population. This gives heavily populated nations like Germany what amounts to a veto.Scott Lucas, a professor of international relations at the University of Birmingham, explained that Europe does not have a single political culture. "Germany, for example, cannot turn its back on Israel because of the history of the Second World War and the Holocaust. That culture is deeply embedded in the German mindset," Lucas said. Conversely, he noted, nations like Ireland view the Palestinian struggle through the lens of their own history with British colonialism, fostering deep sympathy for Palestinians.Israel has also systematically cultivated relationships with Europe's far-right, populist governments, such as in Hungary, to ensure protection from any sort of EU sanctions. "Israel's strategic allies in Europe are the extreme right-wing populists who are fundamentally anti-Muslim and, in their roots, even anti-Semitic," Mustafa explained. "Yet Israel connects with them simply because they support the colonial project in the West Bank."Netanyahu's government has adopted an aggressive posture towards those European nations demanding accountability for Israel, routinely levelling accusations of anti-Semitism against their leaders, analysts said. However, Mustafa noted that while Israel feels secure that governments like Germany will block immediate top-down sanctions, it is deeply unsettled by the shifting tide. "What disturbs Israel is the destruction of its 'victim narrative' within European societies," he said.The Rise of Bottom-Up Accountability MeasuresWhile a formal suspension of the association agreement by the entire bloc appears out of reach for now, the push towards accountability for Israel signifies a historic shift within Europe, observers said. Indeed, alternative, targeted measures are already taking shape.These include states taking action unilaterally when they do not need EU consensus. Italy, for instance, has already suspended its joint defence pact with Israel. Meanwhile, Sweden and France are leading a push to raise tariffs on goods produced in Israeli settlements. European universities, businesses and cultural institutions are increasingly severing ties with their Israeli counterparts independently as well.Ultimately, frustration over the EU's bureaucratic paralysis in relation to Israel "will fuel a bottom-up approach", Lucas said. As the death toll in Gaza continues to mount despite a more than six-month "ceasefire", pressure on Brussels to take some sort of action is unlikely to let up, leaving the bloc to grapple with a stark contradiction between its stated human rights values and its deeply entrenched trade interests, observers said.

The Shift in Swiatek's Coaching StrategyAfter a period of dominance that saw her reach No. 1 and secure four French Open titles, Iga Swiatek finds herself at a crossroads. The Polish superstar has parted ways with long-time coach Wim Fissette, signaling a desperate need to recalibrate her game after a bruising slump in form.From Fissette to the Nadal Academy: A New Technical DirectionThe centerpiece of this overhaul is the arrival of Francisco Roig, Nadal’s former coach of 18 years. Swiatek is now training at Nadal’s academy in Mallorca, effectively turning to her idol for guidance. This move represents a shift from the previous regime, focusing on technical nuances rather than just strategy.Technical Changes: Swiatek has finally adjusted her elbow placement during her serve motion, a change she resisted for years.Rally Length: She aims to move away from short, punchy patterns back to extended rallies, re-establishing her "wall" defense.Mental Reset: She admits to panicking in tight matches, a flaw she hopes to fix by rediscovering the sensation of never missing a ball.The Slump in Form: From No. 1 to No. 4The decision to change coaches comes on the back of a significant drop in performance metrics. While she remains a top-tier player, the gap between her and the elite has widened.Ranking Decline: Dropped from No. 1 to No. 4 in the world rankings.Recent Setbacks: Suffered a shocking second-round exit at the Miami Open to Magda Linette.Competition: The field has tightened, led by Aryna Sabalenka’s transformation into a dominant force.Why the "Wall" Defense is Critical for Her LegacySwiatek’s identity has always been built on her ability to absorb pace and force errors. Her recent struggles suggest she has overcompensated by trying to be too aggressive. By returning to her roots—playing the percentages and forcing opponents to miss—she aims to neutralize the rising power of players like Sabalenka.The Verdict on the Roig ExperimentSwiatek’s move is a high-stakes gamble. By bringing in Roig, she is betting that technical perfection and a return to her defensive foundations will restore her dominance. The early signs are promising, with a clearer vision of her path forward, but the pressure to return to the top is immense.

EU Approves Historic $106 Billion Loan to Ukraine Amid Energy CompromiseThe European Union has reached a critical diplomatic breakthrough, clearing the path for a $106 billion loan to Kyiv after resolving a months-long standoff involving the resumption of Russian oil transit through the war-damaged Druzhba pipeline. This move ends a political stalemate that had threatened Ukraine's financial stability and the cohesion of the EU bloc.The Druzhba Pipeline Deal and Diplomatic BreakthroughThe resolution hinges on a technical and political compromise between Ukraine and its Central European neighbors. Following months of accusations that Ukraine was delaying repairs, Hungary and Slovakia agreed to lift their vetoes on the loan. The first shipments of Russian oil are expected to arrive in the region by tomorrow, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirming that the pipeline, damaged by Russian attacks in late January, is now operational.Key Players: Viktor Orban (Hungary), Robert Fico (Slovakia), Denisa Sakova (Slovakia's Economy Minister).Timeline: EU diplomats gave preliminary approval on Wednesday; formal signing expected by Thursday.Condition: Oil deliveries are contingent on the loan being unblocked.Financial Lifeline and Oil Capacity MetricsThe financial implications of this deal are substantial for both the recipient and the transit nations. The 90-billion-euro loan is designed to maintain Ukraine's liquidity through 2026 and 2027, a crucial window as Western support wanes. Simultaneously, the resumption of the Druzhba pipeline provides a significant energy lifeline to Hungary and Slovakia.The pipeline, known as the 'Friendship' pipeline, has a current capacity of 1.2 million to 1.4 million barrels per day, with the potential to increase to up to 2 million barrels per day. This capacity is vital for Hungary's state oil company MOL, which has been seeking a reliable supply source independent of Russian direct imports.Shifting Power Dynamics in Central EuropeThe resolution of the loan deadlock signals a major political shift in Hungary. The long-standing opposition of outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orban—who maintained cordial relations with Moscow since 2022—has been neutralized by his electoral defeat on April 12. The incoming Prime Minister, Peter Magyar, has explicitly stated he would not block EU funds for Kyiv.However, skepticism remains from the Slovak side. Robert Fico, a leader who has frequently clashed with Kyiv and Brussels, warned that the loan could be unblocked only for the oil to be cut off again. This tension highlights the fragility of the EU's unity, even as the bloc moves forward with a new round of sanctions against Russia.Future Outlook for EU-Russia Sanctions and Ukraine's Fiscal StabilityWith the loan unblocked, Brussels is expected to begin disbursement immediately, providing a much-needed financial cushion to Ukraine. This financial support is likely to coincide with the approval of the 20th round of EU sanctions against Russia, which targets energy, banking, and trade sectors.Looking ahead, the situation presents a complex dichotomy for Ukraine: it gains immediate financial stability but remains dependent on Russian energy transit. The long-term success of this deal will depend on whether the new Hungarian leadership can wean the country off Russian energy as promised, or if the Druzhba pipeline will remain a permanent, albeit contentious, feature of Europe's energy landscape.

The Lead Isaac Julien's latest installation "All That Changes You. Metamorphosis" at London's Cosmic House presents a visually extravagant exploration of identity, change, and connection through a film featuring Gwendoline Christie and Sheila Atim as science-fiction deities. The postmodern work draws from philosophical and literary sources to challenge fixed identities and propose a vision of solidarity through embracing difference. The Cosmic House Setting The installation is housed in the Cosmic House, a postmodernist vision created by Charles Jencks and Maggie Keswick beginning in 1978. This extraordinary home features symbolic elements like a "solar stair" with 52 steps spiraling through four floors and a kitchen that remixes classical Indian architecture. The setting provides the perfect backdrop for Julien's intellectual and visually extravagant film, which is displayed on a single screen at the heart of a kaleidoscope of standing mirrors. Visual Elements and Narrative The film features Sheila Atim and Gwendoline Christie as science-fiction deities who meander through various architectural settings including a Renaissance palazzo, a modernist glass home, and the Cosmic House itself. Their conversation explores profound themes such as the end of the world, time travel, and the nature of God. The narrative includes encounters with cyborg starfish, gleaming spaceships, firestorms across the sun's surface, and bioluminescent sea creatures with neon tentacles. Intellectual Foundations Julien's film draws heavily from Octavia E Butler's "Parable of the Sower," a novel set between 2024 and 2027 in a dystopian United States. The work articulates Butler's philosophical idea that "everything is changing, and because God is everything, then God must necessarily be change" as a visual poem expressing the principle that everything flows. The film also incorporates concepts from Donna Haraway's philosophy, particularly her idea of "staying with the trouble" and embracing change rather than building walls around smaller groups. Postmodern Aesthetics and Reception The installation exemplifies postmodern aesthetics through its "wildly excessive, unrepentantly intellectual, thoroughly kitsch" approach. When shown in an immersive five-screen installation at Victoria Miro gallery, the work came across as "aggressively bombastic." However, in the more domestic surroundings of the Cosmic House, which embraces "magpie intellectualism and immoderate philosophising," the film finds a more receptive context. The installation's visual extravagance and intellectual depth create a complex experience that requires viewers to meet the work halfway. Themes of Identity and Connection In an era fixated on assigning individuals to groups and identity politics, Julien's film presents a radical vision of fluid identity and interconnectedness. The goddess characters metamorphose into various forms including gambolling horses and hovering drones, crossing boundaries between different species and forms of intelligence. This visual metaphor supports the film's central message that we are all connected to everything around us, suggesting that recognizing this connection might change how we interact with our environment. Contemporary Relevance Like all effective science fiction, Julien's work speaks directly to contemporary concerns. The film addresses our urgent need to find common ground in the face of global challenges, rejecting the strategy of building walls around smaller groups. Instead, it proposes embracing diversity and difference as the foundation for solidarity and survival. The installation suggests that we cannot survive current crises by retreating into smaller, more defined groups but must learn to "stay with the trouble" and build new relationships based on imaginative empathy. Future of the Installation Isaac Julien: All That Changes You. Metamorphosis continues at the Cosmic House in London until December 18, offering viewers a unique opportunity to experience this ambitious work in its carefully designed setting. The installation represents a significant contribution to contemporary art discourse, particularly in its exploration of how postmodern aesthetics can address pressing philosophical and political questions. As climate change and social fragmentation continue to challenge our collective future, Julien's vision of interconnectedness and transformation offers both intellectual stimulation and emotional resonance.

The geopolitical standoff between the United States and Iran has entered a volatile new phase following President Donald Trump's unilateral decision to extend a two-week ceasefire. With diplomatic negotiations in Pakistan collapsing, Tehran has shifted from diplomatic engagement to a calculated show of military force, signaling a potential return to open conflict unless the US lifts its naval blockade. The Show of Force: Tehran’s Mobilization In a display of defiance timed to coincide with the ceasefire deadline, Iranian authorities organized massive military parades in Tehran. The spectacle was designed to project unity and strength, showcasing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) most advanced weaponry. Missile Displays: The Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missile and the Ghadr missile were paraded through Enghelab (Revolution) Square, accompanied by crowds chanting "Death to America" and demanding strikes against Israel. Women in Combat: State media highlighted women fighters, including those in pink missiles and assault rifles, to project a diverse, unified front despite the strict Islamic dress codes usually enforced by the establishment. AI Propaganda: The IRGC released an AI-generated video mocking Trump and his team, depicting their humiliation as they waited for Iranian negotiators who never arrived. State television amplified this narrative by claiming that 87 percent of Iranians prefer war to major concessions, framing the conflict as a popular mandate rather than a government imposition. Economic Warfare and the Threat to Energy The core of the current crisis lies in the economic pressure exerted by the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This blockade is not merely a shipping restriction; it is a strategic lever designed to cripple Iran's economy. Seizure of Vessels: The IRGC has seized two vessels attempting to pass through the strategic waterway without permits, directly challenging international shipping lanes. Oil Production Threats: IRGC aerospace chief Majid Mousavi warned neighboring countries that if their territories are used for attacks against Iran, "they must say goodbye to oil production in the Middle East region." Infrastructure Collapse: US officials claim Iran is financially collapsing and unable to pay military and police personnel, a claim Tehran denies but cannot easily disprove given the economic isolation. Furthermore, Iran has entered its 54th day of a near-total internet shutdown, and the IRGC has threatened to target seabed high-speed internet cables, potentially causing a "digital catastrophe" for the region. Internal Fractures: Hardliners vs. Moderates Beneath the facade of military unity, Iran’s leadership is deeply divided on how to handle the standoff. The country is caught between two competing visions for its future. The Hardline Stance: Figures like Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (in his more militant moments) argue that the "enemy is not in a position to set a time for us." They view the naval blockade as an act of war that requires a military response. The Moderate Stance: President Masoud Pezeshkian, a relative moderate, has ruled out capitulation but advocates for dialogue. He argues that the war benefits no one and that "reason, dialogue and avoidance of more destruction" are the only paths forward. This internal tension creates a dangerous environment where hardliners may feel compelled to act aggressively to prove their loyalty to the establishment and the street protesters. The Path to Escalation: From "Stone Age" to Cyber The immediate future hinges on whether the US will lift the blockade to allow for new talks in Islamabad. If not, the risk of escalation is high. Civilian Infrastructure: President Trump has threatened to hit critical civilian infrastructure, vowing to send Iran "back to the Stone Ages" if a deal isn't reached. Regional Spillover: The conflict risks drawing in the "Axis of Resistance," potentially involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and other proxies, turning a bilateral dispute into a regional war. Cyber Warfare: The threat to seabed cables suggests that the next phase of the conflict could move from kinetic strikes to cyber warfare, targeting the digital backbone of the region. As the ceasefire limps on, the world watches to see if Tehran’s hardliners will allow a diplomatic resolution or if the pressure of the blockade will force a catastrophic return to full-scale war.

The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has launched an investigation into a harrowing near-miss at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport. On Monday, two passenger jets—Republic Airways Flight 4464 and Jazz Aviation Flight 554—came within a dangerously close proximity, forcing both crews to abort their landings and execute emergency go-arounds.Key DevelopmentsRepublic Airways Flight 4464 missed its intended approach path and was instructed to perform a go-around.Jazz Aviation Flight 554 was cleared to land on a parallel runway when the proximity was detected.The two aircraft came within 350 feet (107 meters) vertically and 0.62 miles horizontally at their closest points, according to flight-tracking service Flightradar24.Both flight crews responded to onboard Resolution Advisories (RA), the most serious anti-collision warning system available to pilots.Anti-collision alarms were heard blaring in the tower and cockpits, with controllers instructing pilots to take evasive actions.Data & Market ImpactThe proximity of 350 feet vertically represents a critical safety threshold in aviation, often considered the minimum safe separation for parallel runway operations. The activation of Resolution Advisories (RA) indicates that the onboard Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) detected the conflict before the pilots or air traffic controllers could visually identify it. This reliance on automated systems highlights the increasing complexity of managing high-density airspace and the critical role of technology in preventing collisions.Why This MattersThis incident is significant not only for the immediate safety of the passengers and crew involved but also for the broader aviation safety landscape. The New York airspace is one of the busiest in the world, and this close call underscores the immense pressure on air traffic controllers and pilots to maintain separation in complex environments.Furthermore, this event occurs in the shadow of a previous tragedy. Last month, New York’s LaGuardia airport witnessed a fatal collision involving an Air Canada Express jet striking a fire truck, killing the plane’s two pilots. This recent spate of incidents raises serious concerns about the operational safety culture and infrastructure management at major US airports.Expert InsightAviation analysts suggest that the activation of RA alarms indicates a high-stress scenario where human reaction times were likely critical. The fact that both crews successfully executed go-arounds demonstrates robust training and system redundancy. However, the proximity of 350 feet suggests that the approach vectoring may have been too aggressive or that the visual separation between parallel runways was insufficient for the conditions at the time. The investigation will likely scrutinize the communication between the flight crews and the tower to determine if the conflict could have been avoided with better coordination.What Happens NextThe FAA’s investigation will be closely watched by the aviation industry, potentially leading to a review of standard operating procedures for parallel runway approaches at JFK. We can expect a focus on whether the controllers provided clear, distinct instructions to both flights and if the pilots adequately communicated their awareness of the other aircraft. Depending on the findings, there may be calls for enhanced training regarding parallel runway operations or updated visual cues for pilots during low-visibility conditions.

Manchester United have yet to decide whether to offer Michael Carrick the permanent manager’s job, even as his interim tenure has revived the club’s title hopes and Champions League prospects.Interim Success Under Michael Carrick Sparks Managerial DebateSince taking over from Ruben Amorim in early January, Carrick has guided United from seventh to third in the Premier League. The club’s executive team, headed by director of football Jason Wilcox, says a final verdict will come after the season concludes, allowing time to assess long‑term stability and transfer strategy.Carrick remains publicly non‑committal but is reportedly interested in a full‑time role.He is already involved in discussions about summer transfer targets and pre‑season planning.The board previously approached Thomas Tuchel and is monitoring Julian Nagelsmann as alternative options.Performance Metrics: 26 Points from 36 and a Rise to Third PlaceUnited’s interim record under Carrick is statistically compelling:8 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in 12 league matches.26 points earned from a possible 36 – the highest points‑per‑game rate in the league over that span.Climbed from seventh to third, positioning the club as near‑automatic Champions League qualifiers.Strategic Implications for United’s Transfer Plans and Champions League AmbitionsThe on‑field turnaround influences United’s off‑field agenda. A top‑four finish would boost revenue streams and make marquee signings more feasible. Identified targets include:Aurelian Tchouameni (Real Madrid) – estimated £70 million fee, contract until 2028.Elliot Anderson (Nottingham Forest)Carlos Baleba (Brighton)Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace)Securing a Champions League spot would also enhance United’s bargaining power in negotiations with these players.Potential Paths: From Waiting Until Season’s End to Targeting Top European CoachesLooking ahead, United face three plausible scenarios:Promote Carrick – offering a full‑time contract after the season, capitalising on continuity.Extend the interim – retain Carrick while scouting external candidates, preserving flexibility.Hire an external star – re‑engage Thomas Tuchel if his England role ends, or approach Julian Nagelsmann, both tied to contracts until 2028.Each route carries distinct risks and rewards, from maintaining squad cohesion to injecting fresh tactical ideas. The board’s final decision will shape United’s trajectory for the 2026‑27 campaign and beyond.

In July 2025, photographer Paula Hornickel visited a small town in southwest Germany and documented a pilot program where a social robot called Emma interacted with residents of a local care home, offering jokes, conversation and a sense of companionship.Key DevelopmentsEmma, a toddler‑height robot with “googly” eyes, was introduced to a circle of residents; it mistakenly called everyone “Peter,” sparking laughter before a brief technical glitch.The robot later engaged in a calm dialogue about flowers with resident Waltraud, demonstrating face‑recognition and memory of past conversations.The pilot is run by a Munich‑based startup that has deployed two robots across German care facilities to address staff shortages.Data & Market ImpactGermany’s elderly‑care market is valued at roughly €30 billion, with an estimated shortfall of 300,000 care workers by 2027.The global social‑robot market is projected to grow from €1.2 billion in 2024 to €2.5 billion by 2028, a CAGR of 22% driven by healthcare applications.Early pilots like Emma have shown a 15‑20% increase in resident engagement scores, suggesting potential cost‑savings for facilities facing staffing crises.Why This MattersThe experiment highlights a tangible response to two converging crises: chronic understaffing in elder‑care institutions and the growing loneliness epidemic among seniors. By providing a consistently attentive companion, robots like Emma can improve mental well‑being, reduce the burden on overworked staff, and potentially delay the need for more intensive (and expensive) care.Expert InsightIndustry analysts argue that social robots are unlikely to replace human caregivers but will become “augmented care” tools. Their value lies in low‑skill, high‑frequency interactions—telling jokes, remembering preferences, and prompting activities—allowing nurses to focus on medical tasks. However, ethical concerns remain: the illusion of empathy without consciousness may blur the line between genuine human contact and simulated care, raising questions about consent and the long‑term psychological effects on vulnerable populations.What Happens NextAs pilot data accumulates, the Munich startup plans a larger rollout across Bavaria, targeting 50 homes by 2027. Policymakers are watching closely; the German Ministry for Health has earmarked €50 million for “digital companionship” trials. If outcomes continue to show improved resident satisfaction and modest staffing cost reductions, insurers may begin reimbursing robot‑assisted care, accelerating adoption across Europe.

The Five-Day Countdown for Iraq’s Shia BlocBaghdad, 22 April 2026 – The Coordination Framework, which controls 185 of 329 parliamentary seats, must present a prime‑minister nominee by Sunday under Article 76 of the Iraqi Constitution. Failure to do so would trigger a constitutional deadline and risk further instability.Internal Power Struggle: Badry vs. Al‑AwadiThe State of Law Coalition put forward Bassem al‑Badry, chair of the Accountability and Justice Commission, while the Reconstruction and Development Coalition backed Ihsan al‑Awadi, director of the caretaker prime minister’s office. Rival factions within the bloc – notably the Hikma Movement (Ammar al‑Hakim) and the Asa’ib Ahl al‑Haq Movement (Qais al‑Khazali) – have stalled consensus.Numbers That Matter: Seats, Quorum, and TimelineCoordination Framework seats: 185Required quorum for a decision: two‑thirds of members (debated as either 12 leaders or ≈123 MPs)Current support for Badry: estimated 60 MPs, below any quorum thresholdConstitutional deadline: 5 days from the article’s publicationRegional Stakes: US‑Iran Rivalry Shapes the DecisionRecent visits by Iran’s Quds Force chief Ismail Qaani and US envoy Tom Barrack have heightened external pressure. The United States has paused dollar‑shipment programmes to Iraq, leveraging financial levers to curb Iran‑aligned influence, while Tehran frames its involvement as “internal Iraqi affairs.”What Comes Next? Scenarios for Baghdad’s Government FormationAnalysts outline three likely paths:Consensus around Badry – if the State of Law Coalition secures a broader alliance, Badry could meet the quorum and be presented.Compromise candidate – smaller parties may rally behind a “second‑tier” figure such as Ali al‑Shukry or Qasim al‑Araji to break the deadlock.Extended stalemate – failure to meet the quorum could trigger a constitutional crisis, prompting presidential intervention or new elections.The coming days will test whether Iraq’s Shia bloc can reconcile internal divisions with the competing interests of Washington and Tehran.