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The Rise of AI Financial MarketsThe most important market of the future could be in LLM tokens — and financial groups are rushing to build new infrastructure for them. China's Shanghai Futures Exchange is currently designing a derivatives market for AI tokens, while major derivatives exchanges CME Group and the Intercontinental Exchange (the owner of the NYSE) have separately announced they're working on launching futures contracts for renting GPUs.Building the AI Derivatives InfrastructureGPU markets are still maturing, but given the wide range of companies using, selling, and renting GPUs, there's already a robust market for spot prices on GPU rental, typically charged by the hour. This has prompted major financial players to develop futures contracts that would allow businesses to hedge against fluctuating compute costs.Enterprise plans for major AI companies are commonly denominated in tokens: OpenAI, for example, charges $5 per million input tokens, and $30 per million output tokens if you want to use the API for its latest GPT-5.5 model. Even cloud providers are increasingly offering the opportunity to charge per token, as in Amazon's Bedrock system.The Economics of GPU and Token PricingAccording to data from AI Mining Co., which tracks daily GPU rental pricing across 28 marketplaces and cloud providers, median prices for Nvidia H100 GPUs ranged from $1.40 to $4.27 per hour across 13 marketplaces, while the average price for H200 GPUs were between $2.34 and $5 per hour across 10 marketplaces.Just over the past seven days, average H100 prices ranged from $2.79 to $3.33, showing the volatility that makes futures contracts attractive for risk management.Transforming the AI Investment LandscapeThe effort comes amid an unprecedented buildout of AI infrastructure. Cloud service providers, private equity firms, and infrastructure players alike have poured hundreds of billions into building data centers, anticipating that demand for GPUs and compute will continue to rise.An emerging crop of global neocloud companies is also vying for a piece of this demand. Some of these new entrants are specializing, focusing on inference, while others are competing with cloud giants like Oracle, AWS, and Google Cloud to offer their services to AI companies.The Future of AI Financial InstrumentsBy targeting AI tokens, the Shanghai exchange's derivative product would be tied to how AI companies price their services, giving businesses, investors, and data center operators a way to hedge against the cost of compute. As AI becomes increasingly central to business operations, these financial instruments will likely become essential components of the technology investment ecosystem.

The Shift in Eid TraditionsTraditionally, Eid al-Fitr in Lebanon is a vibrant celebration featuring family gatherings, elaborate feasts, and visits to mosques. However, the current geopolitical climate has forced a drastic pivot. Instead of traditional prayers in open spaces, many worshippers are gathering in underground shelters or makeshift prayer rooms to avoid aerial threats. The customary visits to relatives have been replaced by a focus on immediate family units, often confined to a single room due to the destruction of homes.The Human Cost of CelebrationThe economic and physical toll of the war has stripped the holiday of its festive elements. The traditional "Eid breakfast" or "Eid lunch" has been reduced to rationed meals, with many unable to afford the usual abundance. Furthermore, the displacement of millions has meant that Eid is no longer a time of return to one's roots, but a moment of uncertainty regarding where one will sleep that night. The joy of the holiday is overshadowed by the collective trauma of the population.Resilience Amidst AdversityDespite the grim circumstances, the Lebanese people continue to observe the religious significance of Eid. The spirit of the holiday has shifted from hedonism to solidarity. Communities are finding ways to maintain a sense of normalcy, often through digital connections or small, private acts of charity. The war has not erased the holiday, but it has forced a maturation of the cultural experience, prioritizing spiritual connection over material celebration.

The LeadThe United States has escalated its threats against Oman, warning that it would "aggressively" impose sanctions if the Gulf ally helps Iran establish a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz. This intensifies President Donald Trump's recent threats against Oman, including a warning to "blow them up" if they don't comply with US demands regarding the strategic waterway.US Treasury's Aggressive StanceUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Thursday that Washington will "not tolerate" either country imposing fees on commercial ships in the strategic waterway. "Oman, in particular, should know that the US Treasury will aggressively target any actors involved — directly or indirectly — in facilitating tolls for the Strait and any willing partners will be penalized," Bessent said in a social media post."All nations should reject outright any efforts by Iran to disrupt the free flow of commerce. Tehran's days of terrorizing the region and the world are over."Global Energy Security at RiskAbout 20 percent of the world's oil flowed through Hormuz before the conflict, making the Iranian blockade a major strain on global energy supplies. The closure has sent oil prices soaring and threatens economic stability worldwide. The strait's critical importance to global energy markets makes any disruption a matter of international concern.Regional Power Dynamics ShiftThe statement comes less than 24 hours after President Trump threatened to bomb Oman, a key US ally known for its neutrality and mediation efforts in regional crises. This unprecedented threat against a close security and economic partner signals a significant shift in US foreign policy in the Middle East.While Iran has suggested joint Iranian-Omani management of the Hormuz Strait, Oman has not explicitly stated it is seeking control over the waterway, parts of which flow through its territory.Future Outlook for Hormuz StraitThe US and Iran have been indirectly negotiating to reach an agreement for a comprehensive end to the war, with control over the Hormuz Strait emerging as a major point of disagreement. Trump has stressed that the strait must remain a free passageway for international commerce.Ali Bagheri Kani, deputy secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, countered that Tehran will not allow Hormuz to be a source of insecurity for the country, stating that "the powers that have used this passage against Iran's security must be held accountable." The standoff continues as both nations dig in on their positions regarding control of this vital waterway.

The US Strikes on Bandar Abbas The United States has carried out strikes near Bandar Abbas, the second attack in less than a week on Iran’s strategically important port city, escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz despite a fragile ceasefire that has been in place between Washington and Tehran since April 8. Details of the Attack Reuters and The Associated Press, quoting unnamed US officials, reported that US forces shot down four Iranian drones and struck a ground control station for drones on Wednesday in Bandar Abbas. The strikes followed explosions in Bandar Abbas on Tuesday. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Washington of violating the ceasefire through “aggressive acts” in Hormozgan province, where the port city is located. Significance of Bandar Abbas Bandar Abbas, home to key Iranian naval forces, occupies one of the most strategically sensitive positions in the Gulf. Its location on the Strait of Hormuz has made it central to both Iran’s military position and the wider confrontation with the US. Bandar Abbas lies on Iran’s southern coast, on the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway linking the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea. The city had a population of more than 526,000 people at the time of Iran’s 2016 census. Military Significance Bandar Abbas is the headquarters of both Iran’s conventional navy and the naval arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The conventional navy has used it as its base since 1977 when Iran moved much of its fleet from Khorramshahr at the western edge of Iran’s Gulf coastline, to Bandar Abbas, transforming the city into the country’s main southern naval command centre. According to the Middle East Institute, the IRGC navy later relocated its headquarters from Tehran to Bandar Abbas to improve operational control along the Strait of Hormuz. Economic Importance The Strait of Hormuz is not just a military chokepoint but also an economic lifeline. Analysts estimated that more than 90 percent of Iranian crude shipments transit through the strait. That makes Bandar Abbas and nearby Gulf infrastructure critical to government revenues, including the trade networks that help Iran circumvent sanctions, particularly by exporting oil to China. Impact on Peace Negotiations Diplomatic and military operations are unfolding simultaneously as Iran and the US have exchanged a volley of proposals and counterproposals for peace since the ceasefire began. “This is unfolding on parallel tracks. There is a military track and a negotiating track all unfolding at the same time,” said Samir Puri, a visiting lecturer in war studies at King’s College London. “The negotiators can only present the leverage they have from the field of battle.

Anti‑immigrant anger is reaching a new peak in South Africa as municipal officials ordered the removal of makeshift camps that housed thousands of migrants, leaving them exposed on public streets. The move has ignited protests, a surge in xenophobic incidents, and a heated debate over the nation’s immigration policy. Escalating Xenophobic Tensions After Forced Evictions City councils in Johannesburg and surrounding townships issued eviction notices this week, citing health and safety concerns. Residents of the cleared camps report being given less than 24 hours to vacate, with many forced to sleep on sidewalks or in overcrowded shelters. Evictions began on 2026-05-25 across three major informal settlements. Local NGOs estimate that over 5,000 migrants were displaced. Community leaders claim the actions were taken without adequate consultation. Limited Data Highlights a Growing Crisis Official statistics on the displacement are scarce, but available reports point to a sharp rise in xenophobic activity: The South African Police Service logged a noticeable uptick in hate‑crime complaints in the past month. Human‑rights groups note an increase in verbal and physical attacks targeting foreign nationals. Economic analysts warn that prolonged unrest could deter foreign investment. Political Fallout and Social Cohesion at Risk The government’s response has split opinion. While some politicians defend the evictions as necessary for public order, opposition parties and civil‑society groups accuse the administration of stoking xenophobia. President Cyril Ramaphosa called for “orderly migration management” but avoided direct criticism of local authorities. Opposition leader John Steenhuisen demanded an immediate halt to evictions and a review of immigration policy. International bodies, including the UN, have urged South Africa to uphold the rights of migrants. Potential Policy Shifts and International Scrutiny Analysts predict that sustained pressure could force the government to adopt a more coordinated approach: Implementation of a national framework for temporary housing of displaced migrants. Increased funding for community‑integration programs to mitigate xenophobic sentiment. Possible sanctions or aid reductions from foreign partners if human‑rights violations continue. Until concrete measures are taken, the risk of further unrest remains high, and South Africa’s reputation as a regional hub for trade and tourism could suffer.

The Champions Final in Budapest As the Champions League final approaches in Budapest, the tournament's format comes under scrutiny. While the host city provides an ideal setting for European football's premier club competition, the event highlights a concerning trend: the Champions League has become a closed shop dominated by clubs from just five nations. Coaching Excellence in the Final The final features two teams whose success is built on exceptional coaching. Luis Enrique has transformed PSG from a collection of individual stars into a cohesive unit, while Mikel Arteta has methodically rebuilt Arsenal into an organized force. Both coaches employ sophisticated tactical systems—ball-oriented zonal marking and defensive choreography that represents the cutting edge of modern football philosophy. Defensive Prowess and Tactical Contrasts Arsenal's remarkable defensive record in this Champions League campaign—conceding only six goals in 14 matches without a single loss—contrasts sharply with Bayern Munich's 20 goals conceded. This defensive solidity, achieved through organization rather than individual brilliance, has been key to Arsenal's resurgence. Meanwhile, PSG's evolution under Enrique demonstrates how tactical discipline can elevate even the most star-studded squads. Budapest: Symbol of Change Budapest serves as more than just a neutral venue for the final; it represents a symbolic shift in European politics and society. Recent events in Hungary have signaled a return to European solidarity and rules-based cooperation. The city's football heritage, including the legendary 7-1 victory over Bayern Munich in 1919, adds historical weight to its role in hosting this prestigious event. The European Football Monopoly Since Porto's triumph in 2004, the Champions League trophy has been monopolized by clubs from Spain, Italy, Germany, France, and England. This five-nation dominance persists despite the global nature of modern football and the existence of talented clubs across the continent. The financial disparity between these top leagues and others creates an insurmountable barrier for clubs from smaller nations. Historical Context and Hungarian Legacy Hungary possesses a rich football tradition that has often been overlooked. The nation reached two World Cup finals (1938 and 1954) and produced legendary coaches who influenced football globally. The Golden Team featuring Ferenc Puskás remains one of football's most celebrated sides, while Hungarian coaches like Béla Guttmann and Pál Csernai introduced tactical innovations that shaped the modern game. The Future of European Competition The Champions League's current structure threatens the diversity that makes football compelling. While financial realities make complete parity unrealistic, measures to increase competitiveness across European football are needed. The tournament should reflect the continent's rich footballing heritage rather than serving as an exclusive club for the wealthiest nations. As Hungary demonstrates, passion and tradition can coexist with modern football—provided the opportunity exists.

The Rise of Heated Rivalry: From Canadian TV to NYC StageWalking into the Culture Club in West Chelsea, New York, for a performance of Heated Rivalry: The Unauthorized Musical Parody last week, I was met by three ghosts left over from when the space was called the McKittrick hotel and it hosted the immersive spookfest, Sleep No More. The first was the phantom of clever detail: cans of Athletic IPAs for sale, a cute, non-alcoholic nod to the mega-popular series' hockey setting. The second was of unnerving fright, as I realized there would be no booze at this singing satire. Would I be able to make it through 90 minutes of jokes about an overexposed Canadian gay sports romance, with zero quality guarantee and an even lower blood alcohol concentration? At least at the downtown premiere of the popular parody Titanique, long before it proved itself worthy of a handful of Tony nominations, you could stand up and order a bucket of White Claws.But then the third specter materialized, the ghost of immersion and surrender, as this very funny production completely won me over. (I've since learned that a liquor license is forthcoming.) Heated Rivalry, for the uninitiated, is a television show adapted from a series of gay romance novels by Rachel Reid, a straight woman who unwittingly launched a thousand discussions about who gets to be horny over whom, how and when. Fans of the books petitioned for a wider release of the show produced for the Canadian streamer Crave, last November and, some six months later, its formerly unknown stars Connor Storrie and Hudson Williams are in easy contention for the most photographed people alive. Heated Rivalry: The Unauthorized Musical Parody is the latest addition to New York City's musical parody cottage industry, which has led me to a theater lobby where a woman in a branded hockey jersey is telling the stranger next to her that she's seen the series "probably not as many times as you think, but still a lot".The Unauthorized Musical: A Masterclass in ParodyThere was a communal giddiness as everyone filed into the unassuming performance space, where less than 200 folding chairs were arranged around a small stage. Super-fans were giddy that their dreams were coming true, and the more reserved types, perhaps blushing at what they deemed beneath them, were still clearly enjoying themselves. I liked the TV show just fine, a bit underwhelmed at what was broadly discussed as "softcore smut" but felt more in line with the twee "naughtiness" of the romance world. I had worried a musical parody put together in a few months would be a cash-grab; plain fan service for those who can't get enough of those six novels or episodes, not jabbing at the culture so much as stroking its ego. Impressively, as written by Dylan MarcAurele and directed by Alan Kliffer, it satisfies all three camps.Framing is everything, and this romp begins with a faux earnest number, à la Waitress, where three suburban Susans detail their newfound pastime: putting their husbands to bed with some iPad time, knocking back an "Ambien margarita" and reveling in their favorite televised "boy aquarium". From there, "Main Susan" (Ryann Redmond, glorious) recaps the years-long flirtation between the feuding players, innocent Japanese-Canadian "Shane Hollander" (Jimin Moon) and brusque Russian "Ilya Rozanov" (Jay Armstrong Johnson).The obligatory double entendres (a song titled Shane Hollander, Slap that Stick! or a line, by Shane's mom, about the "heavy load" her obviously gay son carries) are expertly delivered right between earnestness and tongue-in-cheek, but it's MarcAurele's ability to mock the story's sillier elements that clinched it for me. Shane, whose thumb-twiddling submissiveness often grated me in the TV show, is played by Moon as a dopey bottom with a hopeless romantic complex. What the series plays out as a forbidden romance writ epic across timelines and borders, MarcAurele presents as Shane's borderline delusion in dealing with an uncaring dom for years on end. "I keep replaying things he said," Shane beams after a hookup, "like, 'Ass up, little whore.'" The score's best number, certainly the one best primed for cabaret nights anywhere, is Liza Minnelli's Maybe This Time send-up where Shane croons, "This fuck felt different from the last fuck. This fuck, he asked if I would stay."If reading that inspires eyerolls – totally – Moon (and the rest of the cast, which includes Cherry Torres and Ryan Duncan) are so winning in their deliveries, so in on the joke without reducing their project into one, that it's impossible to resist. As the icy-hot Ilya, Johnson has the less showy role and plays it mostly straight, which makes his song about an outcast childhood made tragic by his impossibly "big ass, cold heart" that much funnier. And, well, let's face it: Johnson and Moon are sexy as hell, and charming to boot. Kliffer's inventive staging, with choreography by Brooke and Tiffany Engen on a resourceful set by Sully Ross, goes long on bunny-hopping glee.The Off-Broadway Parody Boom: A New RenaissanceThe Canadian Kliffer, previously artistic director of famed improv spots like Second City and Asylum NYC, where he helped launch Titanique's improbable boom, later told me that these parodies rarely come together with such speed, let alone quality. He'd loved MarcAurele's Pop Off, Michelangelo! in London and M3gan spoof stateside, and had just bought into Heated Rivalry, courtesy of its amorously optimistic fifth episode, when the writer texted him with the idea. The resulting work fits attractively between the out-and-out bawdiness of the Titanic send-up and the relentless Millennial nostalgia of Ginger Twinsies, which parodied the 90s Parent Trap remake last summer, and Kliffer notes that this very queer, very funny moment downtown – which also includes Cole Escola's Oh, Mary! – points to "a little bit of an Off-Broadway renaissance."This particular renaissance seems to be defined by parodies that are loving but not saccharine, willing to mock their source material while still celebrating what made it appealing in the first place. The success of these shows suggests a hunger for theater that doesn't take itself too seriously but still delivers genuine theatrical craft. In a city where Broadway ticket prices can be prohibitive, these intimate, affordable productions offer a different kind of theatrical experience – one that feels more accessible and immediate.Cultural Impact: Beyond the ParodyHeated Rivalry exists at the intersection of several cultural conversations. The original series, based on novels by Rachel Reid, sparked discussions about who gets to tell LGBTQ+ stories and how those stories should be represented. The parody doesn't shy away from these questions but instead uses humor to explore them. By exaggerating certain elements of the original series, the musical actually highlights what made it compelling in the first place.The show also represents the growing visibility of LGBTQ+ stories in mainstream entertainment. What began as niche content has become a cultural phenomenon, with the original series gaining international attention and its stars becoming unlikely celebrities. The musical parody capitalizes on this popularity while simultaneously commenting on it, creating a meta-narrative that appeals to both fans and newcomers.Moreover, the success of Heated Rivalry reflects a broader trend in entertainment where audiences are increasingly drawn to content that acknowledges and plays with its own artificiality. In an era of heightened awareness about media consumption, audiences seem to appreciate works that don't pretend to be anything other than what they are – crafted, performed, and enjoyed.The Future of Parody Theater: What's Next?As the Off-Broadway scene continues to evolve with these clever parodies, we can expect to see more adaptations of popular TV shows and movies hitting the small stage. The success of Heated Rivalry, following in the footsteps of Titanique and other parody hits, suggests that there's a sustainable market for this type of entertainment.What's particularly interesting is how these parodies are pushing the boundaries of traditional musical theater. They're more immediate, more self-aware, and more willing to break the fourth wall than many conventional productions. This approach seems to resonate with younger audiences who are accustomed to interactive media and meta-commentary.Looking ahead, we might see parodies of other recent cultural phenomena – perhaps streaming hits, viral social media trends, or even political events. The key to success, as demonstrated by Heated Rivalry, will be balancing genuine affection for the source material with sharp, intelligent humor that offers something new to the conversation.

The Lead: A Midlife Comedy Triumph Middle age is a brutal time of life, perfectly suited for mining laughs that are bound up with tears, crisis, and death. Tina Fey's The Four Seasons returns for a second season that is even more perspicacious, poignant and hilarious than the first, proving once again why Fey remains one of comedy's most insightful voices. The Event Details: Season Two's Narrative Structure The second season continues with four fancy holidays split across the seasons, each given two gag-packed episodes. This rigid but neat structural device allows big moments to happen off-screen while we experience the aftermath soundtracked by an avalanche of Vivaldi and bracing jokes about sad lonely donkeys, secret vapes mistaken for thumb drives, and the tragicomedy of being an angry, unravelling fiftysomething man. The three couples have been reconfigured after the death of Nick (Steve Carell) at the end of season one. We follow Kate (played by Fey) and Jack as they workshop their marriage, Danny and Claude as gay, unbearably chic, forever bickering couple, and Nick's ex-wife Anne and the much younger woman for whom he left her, Ginny – now heavily pregnant with his baby. By summer, Anne and Ginny have moved in together with the baby, creating an unconventional but loving family unit. The Critical Analysis: Why This Season Excels The Four Seasons season two delivers moments so hilarious they rival Fey's previous masterpiece, 30 Rock. The show's strength lies in its ability to balance absurd humor with genuine emotional depth. The conversations between Danny and Claude are particularly funny, moving, and sensitively wrought, while Kate and Jack's "freeballing" – their decision to "grow apart on purpose" – evolves into a beautiful meditation on the endurance test of long-term relationships. This season belongs to Anne, who makes a joyous transition from lonely, fearful ex-wife to contented (enough) single woman willing to dress up as a folkloric old witch at an Italian Christmas pageant. She delivers many of the best lines and sports the most fabulous wardrobe, proving that middle-aged women can be both hilarious and fashionable. The Impact Analysis: Redefining Midlife Comedy The Four Seasons stands out in today's television landscape by tackling middle age with honesty and humor. Unlike the aspirational settings of Nancy Meyers movies that the show lovingly mocks, The Four Seasons presents a more realistic – though still beautiful – vision of midlife. The lush lakeside lawns and lobster rolls serve as a lure to reel viewers into the murky depths of actual midlife experience, where good men smash up vintage snack shacks, regrets must be lived with, and people who love each other want completely different things. Fey's special power lies in creating jokes so specific they feel personally tailored to the middle-aged experience. The show's ability to make viewers laugh while simultaneously acknowledging the existential dread that comes with this life stage represents a significant contribution to the comedy genre. The Prediction: The Future of The Four Seasons Given the critical acclaim and the rich narrative possibilities still available, The Four Seasons seems poised for additional seasons. The show has established itself as a worthy successor to Fey's 30 Rock, with the potential to become a modern classic of television comedy. Its unique blend of high-concept settings and low-stakes domestic problems, combined with Fey's signature wit and emotional intelligence, suggests the series will continue to resonate with audiences navigating the complexities of middle age. As streaming platforms increasingly compete for quality content, The Four Seasons represents the kind of smart, character-driven comedy that awards seasons and cultural conversations are built around. If the show maintains this level of quality, it may not only extend its own run but also inspire more television creators to tackle middle age with the same honesty, humor, and heart.

The LeadNature groups have pleaded with swimmers to give wildlife a wide berth after dozens of people swam in a nature pond on Hampstead Heath among nests of baby birds during record-breaking temperatures in London.The Wildlife Disturbance IncidentSwans and their 12-day-old cygnets were disturbed by hordes of splashing revellers in the north London park on Monday as London reached record 35C temperatures. In one video, a swan was seen poking an unhatched egg with its beak after it fell into the water during the chaos.Conservationists responded with dismay after a video was shared on social media of the scenes, which the City of London called "utterly appalling". Coots, moorhens and swans were seen guarding their eggs and young as people obliviously splashed around them.There are large signs around the pond urging people not to swim as it is a wildlife conservation area. The unseasonably hot weather has meant that people have been going into water sources en masse to cool off, coinciding with the nesting season for water birds.Conservation ConcernsThe RSPB said it was "a crucial time of year for breeding birds which just want to nest and care for their young in peace". The bird charity urged people to swim in authorised, lifeguarded spaces rather than nature reserves."Along with the dangers of swimming in unauthorised places, there is a significant risk of disturbing wildlife. Many species are already under huge pressure and disturbance can make a parent abandon their nest, putting eggs and chicks at risk. Everyone has a part to play in protecting nature so we'd urge people to be responsible and give birds and other wildlife plenty of space when outdoors this summer," it said.Swans of Hampstead Heath, the Instagram account that raised the alarm about the birds, posted: "We are currently in peak nesting season. There are still eggs waiting to hatch, ducklings and chicks only days/weeks old, and for the first time in years, swans have successfully nested on this pond, with cygnets now just 13 days old. Restricting these birds to a small section at the back of the pond makes it incredibly difficult for them to access the natural food they need to survive."When nests are disturbed, the adult birds often flee, leaving their young to be eaten by predators or die of starvation.Official Response and EnforcementThe chair of the City of London Corporation's Hampstead Heath, Highgate Wood and Queen's Park committee, alderman Gregory Jones KC, said: "The recent conduct of some visitors swimming in non-lifeguarded ponds is utterly appalling. Entering other non-lifeguarded water bodies is extremely dangerous, against our bylaws, and causes significant harm to wildlife habitats.""We always seek to engage with visitors first, but the constabulary will take enforcement action where necessary, including issuing fines or making arrests."Broader Environmental ContextThe nature campaigner and barrister Paul Powesland said: "I am not defending the people in the video, but scenes like this are an almost inevitable consequence of the destruction of outdoor lidos and the poisoning of rivers across London. It's madness for a city the size of London to have only one set of wild swimming ponds; conveniently located in one of the wealthiest areas."There have, however, been warnings of cold water shock and drownings as lakes, rivers and the sea are much colder than the air temperatures at present.