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Ramesh Kumar, a 42‑year‑old wheat farmer in Gurdaspur, Punjab, India, is already recalculating his budget as fertiliser prices climb and deliveries become erratic.He worries that higher input costs could force him to postpone his daughter’s wedding, delay school fees for his children, or even cut back on the amount of fertiliser he applies – a decision that could lower his harvest.While the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran unfolds thousands of kilometres away, its ripple effects are felt in the fields of Punjab, Kashmir, Pakistan’s South Punjab, Bangladesh’s Rangpur and Nepal’s Gulmi district.The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint linking Gulf oil and gas producers to global markets, handles roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments. Disruptions here delay the flow of natural gas used to produce nitrogen‑based fertilisers, inflating freight, insurance and ultimately fertiliser prices.South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, depends heavily on fertiliser‑intensive agriculture. In India, the sector is worth about $400 billion and employs over 46 % of the workforce; in Pakistan, it contributes close to 20 % of GDP; Bangladesh’s agriculture accounts for 12‑13 % of GDP; and Nepal relies on agriculture for roughly 24 % of its economy.Between 30 % and 35 % of India’s fertiliser imports, and up to 25‑30 % of Pakistan’s, Bangladesh’s, and Nepal’s imports, travel through routes that pass the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged blockage could therefore strain supply chains across the region.Governments are attempting to reassure farmers. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced expanded domestic production of urea, DAP and NPK, as well as the rollout of “Made‑in‑India Nano Urea” and solar‑powered irrigation under the PM Kusum scheme.Pakistan’s federal secretary for agriculture highlighted proactive monitoring, increased domestic urea and DAP output, and measures to keep fertiliser affordable.Bangladesh plans to import 500,000 tonnes of urea in the short term and is exploring alternative sources from China and Morocco, while Nepal’s agriculture ministry says supplies for the upcoming rainy season are secured, though it warns of possible shipment delays.On the ground, farmers are already adjusting. In Kashmir, mustard grower Ghulam Rasool says he reduces fertiliser use as soon as price signals rise, even before actual shortages appear. In Pakistan’s South Punjab, wheat farmer Muneer Ahmad fears higher costs will affect the entire community. In Bangladesh, Mohammad Ibrahim notes that fertiliser availability is becoming unpredictable, and in Nepal, Meghnath Aryal worries that delayed deliveries will hurt crop yields.These individual decisions have broader implications. Reduced fertiliser application can lower yields, which in turn pushes up food prices—a critical concern in a region where households allocate a large share of income to food.While no immediate shortage has been declared, the combination of higher global energy prices, logistical bottlenecks and geopolitical risk makes the situation volatile. Authorities in all four countries are urging farmers to supplement chemical inputs with organic alternatives such as manure, compost and green manuring.For Ramesh Kumar and millions of his peers, the distant Gulf crisis is not an abstract geopolitical story; it is a daily calculation of whether they can afford to feed their families and meet essential expenses.

Ministers are rewriting planning rules to make it easier to approve intensive livestock farms, despite ongoing concerns about water pollution, air quality and local opposition.Freedom of Information documents obtained by the Guardian reveal that proposed changes to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) have been discussed in response to lobbying by the country’s leading chicken producers for at least two years.The British Poultry Council (BPC) told farming minister Angela Eagle last autumn that “access to more growing space is the number one priority for the poultry meat sector.”In a submission to the government’s farm profitability review, the BPC argued that the need for a solution—whether through planning reform or land‑use policy—“dwarfs all other issues currently facing us.”Ahead of a January round‑table with Eagle, the BPC urged the government to “develop national planning direction and oversight for food production … to safeguard the UK’s long‑term food security.”Eagle responded that the government has “announced proposals to reform the planning system to more quickly unlock food and farming infrastructure,” emphasizing that “planning should enable ambition, not stifle it.”Her briefing notes directly linked the proposed changes to industry lobbying, describing planning reform as one of the sector’s “biggest asks” and noting that the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs and the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government are working to “find solutions to planning barriers to poultry sheds and other infrastructure necessary for food production.”The draft NPPF includes several measures that could ease approval of new intensive livestock developments: a higher threshold for refusing applications on environmental grounds, reduced scope for local authorities to adopt tougher rules, greater weight given to “domestic food production,” and a new emphasis on “better accommodation for livestock.”The industry says it needs extra space to house chickens because of voluntary commitments to lower stocking density. Critics point out that these welfare commitments are not legally binding and that planning conditions do not guarantee long‑term compliance. Recent withdrawals by restaurant chains from the Better Chicken Commitment underscore the controversy.Richard Griffiths, chief executive of the BPC, said the reforms are needed to accommodate welfare improvements rather than to expand production, noting a voluntary reduction in stocking density from 38 kg to 30 kg per square metre.Griffiths warned that failing to support domestic production could increase imports, and the BPC has called for food production to be classified as “critical national infrastructure.”Prof. Paul Behrens of the University of Oxford countered that the food‑security case for intensive poultry is “illusory” because the sector depends on imported feed and vitamins and is vulnerable to disease outbreaks such as avian flu.Opposition to poultry megafarms is organised, with local residents raising concerns over water pollution, air quality and the climate crisis. The Environment Agency estimates agriculture accounts for roughly 70 % of nitrate and 25‑30 % of phosphorus pollution in UK waterways, and runoff from intensive poultry units contributes to that burden.Last year, Norfolk councillors rejected Cranswick’s plan for a 900,000‑bird chicken farm after the company failed to demonstrate that the development would not cause “significant adverse effects on protected sites.”The BPC has also urged early intervention by the Planning Inspectorate to minimise delays, arguing that centralised oversight would bring objectivity to a system where “naysayers, particularly via social media, have a disproportionate sway in the decision‑making process.”Campaign group Communities Against Factory Farming warned that the proposed regime “risks embedding decades of industrial livestock land use in rural and green‑belt locations without adequate scrutiny,” giving “substantial weight” to the economic benefits of intensification.A government spokesperson rejected claims that the NPPF proposals are driven by lobbying, stating that they have been carefully considered to balance sector support with broader priorities such as food security and environmental protection.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will lead to higher prices and slower global growth, affecting countries worldwide. The Washington-based organisation emphasised that a rise in energy and food costs will harm economic growth this year and could leave lasting scars on the global economy.The IMF's analysis, published in a blogpost by its main department heads, including chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that governments with high levels of borrowing will have limited access to funds to cushion the worst effects of the crisis. The organisation warned that all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth should the conflict continue to disrupt the supply of oil, gas, and fertiliser from the Gulf.While some countries, such as the US, may gain from higher fossil fuel prices as net exporters of oil and gas, the rise in bills for petrol, diesel, and food will harm living standards. Businesses are also forecast to come under pressure to raise prices, possibly forcing central banks to raise interest rates to combat inflation.The IMF highlighted that about a third of fertiliser production travels through the strait of Hormuz, which could push up prices. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation projects that global prices could average 15% to 20% higher in the first half of 2026 if the crisis persists. Natural gas prices have more than doubled in the UK since last December to about £140 a therm, while a barrel of Brent crude that cost about $60 before the conflict hit more than $116 on Monday before falling back to $112.The IMF added that forecasts for sharp rises in the cost of gas and electricity in Europe next winter are forcing governments to consider higher subsidies and welfare payments to the worst-affected households. The organisation noted that countries such as Italy and the UK are especially exposed by their reliance on gas-fired power, while France and Spain are relatively protected by their greater nuclear and renewables capacity.

The reliance on oil revenue has significant implications for countries like Iran and Nigeria, as well as the broader African continent. Economic diversification remains a crucial goal for these nations to mitigate the risks associated with fluctuating oil prices and global energy trends.Africa, in particular, faces a complex situation, as many countries on the continent are heavily reliant on oil exports to drive economic growth. This oil dependency can make these nations vulnerable to external economic shocks and limit their ability to invest in long-term sustainable development.Iran and Nigeria, as two of Africa's largest oil producers, are working to diversify their economies and reduce their dependence on oil revenue. This process involves investing in alternative sectors, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and renewable energy, to create a more resilient and sustainable economic foundation.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced a temporary waiver allowing the sale of a higher-ethanol fuel blend, known as E15, in an effort to alleviate soaring gas prices that have been exacerbated by the ongoing Iran war.E15, which contains a higher percentage of ethanol than standard gasoline, has been prohibited during warm weather months due to concerns over its potential to worsen smog. However, the EPA's decision, supported by the US agriculture secretary, Brooke Rollins, aims to provide relief to consumers at the pump.“President Trump is unleashing American Energy Dominance, and today’s action will directly lower prices at the pump and gives a clear demand signal to our domestic biofuels producers,” Rollins stated.The summer waiver for E15 has become a recurring measure in recent years, with both Republicans and Democrats advocating for its permanent implementation to reduce fuel costs. Currently, E15 is already permitted in several states, including Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Missouri, Wisconsin, and most of South Dakota.However, not all experts are convinced that the move will significantly lower gas prices. Kenneth Gillingham, a professor at the Yale School of the Environment, pointed out that E15 is not widely available in all states, and some areas lack the necessary infrastructure or sufficient ethanol supply to support increased use.Gillingham also highlighted potential risks associated with E15, particularly for older vehicles, boats, and all-terrain vehicles, due to its higher corrosive ethanol content. Additionally, increased corn usage for ethanol production could lead to higher costs for animal feed and, subsequently, grocery prices.“I think it’s difficult to see when the ledger’s settled how this is a benefit for US consumers,” said Jason Hill, a professor at the University of Minnesota.The decision has also drawn criticism over its potential environmental impacts, with concerns about increased ozone issues, respiratory problems, and even premature deaths.While the oil industry has generally opposed the expansion of E15, citing costly biofuel blending and potential price increases, the American Petroleum Institute has expressed support for the temporary waiver, emphasizing its role in ensuring affordable and reliable energy for American consumers.

The Gran Chaco forest in Argentina, spanning across parts of Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Brazil, is facing a critical threat from deforestation. Small farmers, enticed by the promise of quick money from selling timber, often contribute to this environmental degradation. However, a collaborative effort between conservationists, NGOs, and international organizations is underway to support small-scale landowners and Indigenous communities in establishing alternative income sources. This initiative aims to enable them to resist the pressures of agribusiness and the timber market. Jorge Luna, a 55-year-old farmer, has taken a significant step towards preserving his 40-hectare land in Chaco province. He rejected an offer to cut down the trees and instead embarked on a second career as a forest tourist guide with Fundación Rewilding Argentina, a non-profit organization working to restore parts of the Gran Chaco forest. Luna now rents out a small campsite to visitors and takes tourists on kayak tours along the Bermejito River. "At first, you didn’t give the plants value. It was a lack of knowledge of what they meant. Now, every leaf that sprouts has an added value," he says. Created in 2010 by Tompkins Conservation, Rewilding aims to protect vast tracts of territory and create economic opportunities for local communities while preserving the biosphere. The organization worked with 15 other organizations to convince the government of Chaco province to turn 128,000 hectares into the El Impenetrable national park, officially designated in 2014. Since then, Rewilding has established a network to support a budding tourism industry. It offers riverside glamping stays while promoting local and ancestral knowledge as possible sources of income. Women have returned to weaving and artisanal production, as well as providing home-cooked meals for visitors. According to Greenpeace, Argentina lost nearly 7 million hectares of native forest between 1998 and 2024, with most of it in the Gran Chaco. An estimated almost 120,000 hectares of forest were lost in northern Argentina in 2024, a 10% increase from the previous year. The primary causes of forest loss are the expansion of agriculture, mainly for intensive cattle ranching and genetically modified soya, and forest fires. The Gran Chaco forest also feeds the timber industry, particularly with the quebracho tree, which produces a tannin used in leather products, and carob trees. Environmental lawyers warn that the Gran Chaco could disappear within two decades if deforestation continues at its current pace. "The Chaco does not receive the same attention as the Amazon – few people even know it exists," says Enrique Viale, an Argentine environmental lawyer and activist. For conservation efforts to succeed, projects must be co-designed with the community, ensuring their long-term objectives are considered. Community empowerment, equal distribution of benefits, and capacity building are crucial factors. Mabel Figueroa, a local weaver, has resumed her craft since the national park opened, selling scarves, blankets, and ponchos to tourists. She raises sheep and dyes their wool with tree bark and forest plants, reviving an ancestral tradition.

Denmark is holding parliamentary elections today, with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen seeking a third term after her defiant stance against US President Donald Trump's push to take over Greenland.About 4.3 million Danes are registered to vote, with polls open from 8am to 8pm local time. The first results are expected in the evening.Frederiksen's firm rejection of Trump's bid boosted her approval ratings, helping to stabilise her government after a period of declining support. Her main challenger is centre-right Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen of the Venstre party.The vote comes amid months of heightened tensions over Trump's push to take control of Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory. However, the campaign has focused on domestic issues such as food and fuel prices, the future of agriculture, clean drinking water, and welfare standards at pig farms.Right-wing populists have also sought to gain support with calls for tougher immigration policies. Polls suggest Frederiksen's centre-left Social Democrats could remain the largest party in the 179-seat parliament, although they risk their weakest result in more than a century amid voter discontent.

Cuba has extended an invitation to Cuban Americans and other exiles living abroad to invest in and own businesses on the island, effectively opening its doors to a community that has traditionally agitated for harsh economic sanctions against the Communist government. The move is part of a broader effort to revive Cuba's collapsed economy, which has been exacerbated by a US-imposed oil blockade and sanctions leading to extended blackouts and shortages of fuel, food, and medicine. Cuban Deputy Prime Minister Oscar Perez-Oliva Fraga stated that there are no limitations for Cubans living abroad to participate in the country's development, including investing in larger projects, particularly in agriculture. This policy shift comes as Cuba has begun talks with the US, and US officials have indicated a desire for an economic opening as part of any bilateral agreement. The issue of allowing emigrants to invest in island businesses is sensitive, given the often-hostile stance of some exile communities towards the Cuban government. Economist Paolo Spadoni described the policy shift as 'pragmatic' but noted that Cuba should have initiated it years ago. He added that this change could be a catalyst for deeper US-Cuba economic ties, creating significant opportunities for US companies. With over 1 million Cubans having emigrated since 2021, this move represents a potential source of investment still largely untapped. The policy change occurs against the backdrop of strained US-Cuba relations, with US President Donald Trump having cut off Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba and threatening tariffs on countries selling oil to Cuba.