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The Iraqi armed group Kataib Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, has announced that it will release Shelly Kittleson, a journalist from the United States. Kittleson was abducted in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad on March 31, prompting calls for her release from press freedom groups.The group said on Tuesday that Kittleson would be freed on the condition that she leave Iraq immediately. An anonymous Iraqi official confirmed her release to The Associated Press on Tuesday afternoon.Kittleson, a 49-year-old freelance reporter, had been kept in detention in Baghdad. Her release comes at a moment of heightened tension in Iraq, where Iran-backed groups have carried out attacks on US forces amid the US-Israel war on Iran.The decision to release Kittleson was reportedly made in response to 'the national stances of the outgoing prime minister' of Iraq, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. Abu Mujahid al-Assaf, a security official with the group, warned that the 'exceptional gesture' would not be repeated again.The Associated Press reported that Kittleson was released in exchange for several imprisoned Kataib Hezbollah members, citing anonymous members of the militia. During her detention, publications Kittleson had worked for, including Al-Monitor, praised her for her commitment to covering conflicts in the Middle East.

The United States and China have settled into a stable economic situation, with the US able to access Chinese rare earth minerals and maintain substantial tariffs on Chinese goods. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that the goal of the upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is to maintain this stability.Greer emphasized that the US is not seeking massive confrontation with China, but rather a stable relationship that allows for continued access to critical minerals. The two countries have been discussing issues related to rare earths, including minerals that pass through third countries before reaching the US.The Trump-Xi summit, postponed from March to mid-May due to the US-Israel war on Iran, will also address the formation of a board of trade mechanism to determine sustainable trade between the two countries. Additionally, there have been discussions about a possible board of investment to address discrete issues related to investments.The US is also working on plurilateral agreements to boost alternative supplies of critical minerals, but these need price floor mechanisms to protect production from potential future predatory price cuts by China. Greer noted that the US and China are working to resolve the rare earths issue at the ministerial and staff levels, hoping to avoid bringing it up at the leaders' meeting.

Pakistan has put forward a two-phase plan to bring an end to the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, and to reopen the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. This initiative has been shared with both Iran and the United States, and is currently being considered by both sides.According to sources, Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesman for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has acknowledged Pakistan's diplomatic efforts. The plan, tentatively referred to as the 'Islamabad Accord', involves an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with 15 to 20 days allocated to finalize a broader settlement.The proposed agreement would include Iranian commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets. However, Tehran has responded by stating that it will not reopen the strait as part of a temporary ceasefire, and has expressed skepticism about the proposal.The US has not yet responded to Pakistan's plan, while Iran has rejected a 15-point plan put forward by the US last month, describing it as 'illogical'. The conflict has resulted in significant human suffering, with over 2,000 people killed in Iran since the war began on February 28.The situation remains volatile, with Trump threatening 'hell' on Tehran if a deal is not reached by the end of Tuesday. The international community is closely watching the developments, as the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical artery for global fuel supplies, with over 20 percent of the world's oil and gas passing through the waterway.

Hamas's armed wing has rejected calls for disarmament, stating that discussing the issue before Israel fully implements the first phase of the US-brokered ceasefire in Gaza amounts to an attempt to continue the genocide against Palestinians.In a televised statement, Hamas spokesman Abu Obeida said that raising the issue of weapons 'in a crude manner' would not be accepted. He emphasized that the disarmament demands are an overt attempt to continue the genocide against Palestinians, something Hamas will not accept under any circumstances.The issue of Hamas relinquishing its weapons is a major obstacle in talks to implement US President Donald Trump's 20-point plan for Gaza, aimed at ending Israel's war on the besieged territory. Since the US- and Qatar-brokered ceasefire took effect in October, more than 705 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks, according to the Palestinian news agency Wafa.Hamas has told mediators it will not discuss disarmament without guarantees that Israel will completely withdraw from Gaza. Abu Obeida urged mediators to pressure Israel to fulfil its commitments under the first phase of the Trump plan before any discussion of the second phase can take place.Israel's war on Gaza, which began after Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel in October 2023, has killed more than 72,000 Palestinians and injured at least 172,000 others. Abu Obeida also addressed Israel's role in the US-Israel war on Iran, condemning it for launching strikes on Iran 'in the midst of the deception of negotiations, with full collusion and conspiracy with the United States'.

Iranian drones have launched a series of attacks on Kuwait's oil infrastructure, resulting in severe material damage and posing a significant threat to oil supplies that are already strained due to the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran.The drone strikes, which took place on Sunday, happened just hours before members of the Opec+ group of major global oil suppliers convened to discuss strategies for increasing output, despite Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz shipping route.The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran claimed responsibility for the attacks, stating that they had targeted petrochemical plants in Kuwait, as well as in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The Kuwait Petroleum Corporation reported damage and fires at its subsidiaries, including at the Shuwaikh oil sector complex, which houses the oil ministry and KPC headquarters.The attacks on Kuwait's oil infrastructure are part of a broader escalation of tensions in the Middle East, with Iranian drones also reportedly striking an office complex for Kuwaiti government ministries and two power and water desalination plants.The conflict has led to the largest disruption to oil supplies in history, with the price of Brent crude surging more than 50% since the start of the year to a peak of $119.50 a barrel in March. It is currently trading at about $109 a barrel.The disruptions have had a significant impact on energy costs for consumers, with the average price of a litre of unleaded petrol in the UK reaching 154.45p on Sunday, and the average US fuel price passing $4 a gallon for the first time in four years.Opec+ members have agreed in principle to raise output by 206,000 barrels a day in May, but the agreement remains largely symbolic while Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade artery through which about 20% of the world's total crude oil passes.

The US labor market demonstrated unexpected strength in March, with employers adding 178,000 jobs, significantly exceeding economists' predictions of around 70,000. This growth comes after a revised report showed that the economy lost 133,000 jobs in February, a worse figure than initially stated. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%, according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The job figures for January were revised upward from 126,000 to 160,000. With these revisions, total employment in January and February is 7,000 lower than previously reported. Despite the positive March numbers, the overall trend in the US jobs market has been sluggish since last year. In 2025, only 116,000 jobs were added to the economy for the entire year, which is roughly the same number added per month in previous years. The slowdown in hiring is attributed to caution among employers, particularly due to consumer inflation experiencing fluctuations over the last year. US inflation dipped to 2.3% in April 2025 before rising to 3% in September. Since the start of this year, price increases have remained steady at 2.4%. The ongoing US-Israel war with Iran is expected to drive inflation higher if the situation escalates. The labor market's uncertainty is also reflected in the 'quits rate,' which fell to 1.9%, the lowest since 2020. This suggests that workers are choosing to stay in their current jobs due to uncertainty in the labor market. Adding to the economic pressure, US average gas prices recently surpassed $4 a gallon, and experts warn that every $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil can lead to a 0.2% climb in inflation, reminiscent of the price shocks seen in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The global oil market is being significantly influenced by online prediction platforms such as Polymarket, with energy traders using data from these platforms to inform their multimillion-dollar trades. Market experts have noted that Polymarket's datafeeds are being used to create algorithms that impact trading in the global Brent crude futures market. The growing reliance on Polymarket has raised concerns that anonymous account holders may be using insider knowledge to place bets, potentially influencing pricing in the global oil market. One energy trader noted that Polymarket had become the best predictor of the oil market's direction since the US-Israel war with Iran triggered a global oil crisis. Ajay Parmar, head of oil trading at ICIS, stated that betting markets have a long history of strong prediction accuracy, and traders are increasingly turning to Polymarket for market indicators. Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at Energy Aspects, also confirmed the adoption of prediction markets as a trading tool, noting that any data with alpha is considered in modern markets. The US investment bank Goldman Sachs has included analysis of prediction-market data in its oil market research, and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has launched a trading tool providing a data feed of Polymarket's prediction markets to help traders make informed decisions. However, not all commodity traders are convinced by Polymarket's track record in predicting market-moving events. One trading analyst noted that Polymarket has made bad calls during the crisis, and that hedge funds may be more interested in the platform than traditional traders.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, specifically the US-Israel war on Iran, has sent shockwaves through the global economy, with the Bank of England predicting that over 1.3 million more UK households could face increased mortgage payments. Financial markets have reacted swiftly, with banks pulling around 1,500 mortgage products and raising interest rates on their remaining 7,000 home loan products in recent weeks, according to the Bank's financial policy committee (FPC). The FPC warns that approximately 5.2 million borrowers, or roughly 58% of borrowers across the country, could face higher mortgage payments by the end of 2028, up from 3.9 million before the conflict began. The data provider Moneyfacts reported that the average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate has risen to 5.84%, up from 4.83% at the start of March. Caitlyn Eastell, a personal finance analyst at Moneyfacts, noted that the impact on borrowers has been almost immediate, with borrowing costs sharply rising. The FPC emphasized that a prolonged war increases the possibility of large, frequent and possibly overlapping shocks that could put global financial stability at risk. The UK's economic outlook has deteriorated, increasing pressure on households and businesses, with the FPC adding that a prolonged conflict could amplify risks that were already present before the conflict began. The Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, cautioned that markets may be getting ahead of themselves by pricing in interest rate hikes in response to the Iran war, stating that the Bank's remit is to cause the least damage to the economy and jobs.

The Israeli military has confirmed that four soldiers were killed in combat in southern Lebanon, where its forces are engaged in clashes with Hezbollah fighters following a ground invasion.In a statement, the army named three soldiers from the same battalion who 'fell during combat'. A separate statement confirmed another soldier's death in the same incident, with two others wounded.This brings the total number of Israeli soldiers reported killed since fighting began on March 2 to ten, following a US-Israeli joint attack on Iran. The Lebanese Ministry of Public Health reports that over 1,200 people have been killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon, with more than a million displaced.The escalation comes after the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) reported that two peacekeepers were killed in an explosion near the southern Lebanese village of Bani Haiyyan. Another peacekeeper was killed by a projectile on Sunday.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the military to expand its invasion in southern Lebanon, aiming to extend a 'buffer zone' to the Litani River. Israel's far-right ministers have urged Netanyahu to annex southern Lebanon, as the military destroys infrastructure to isolate the area.Al Jazeera's Lebanon correspondent, Zeina Khodr, reported that Monday night marked a new escalation as Israel opened a new front in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, targeting strategic supply lines for Hezbollah. Khodr noted that Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem acknowledged the imbalance of power but vowed to make the war 'costly' for Israel.The conflict in Lebanon is part of the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran, which has resulted in over 1,340 deaths since February 28. Netanyahu has reportedly told US officials that any future agreement between the US and Tehran will not stop Israel's actions in Lebanon.