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At the start of 2026 Pakistan was sitting on a surplus of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). Three consecutive years of falling demand – from a peak of 8.2 million tonnes in 2021 to 6.1 million tonnes by late 2025 – were driven by cheap solar panels and reduced industrial activity. The government responded by quietly selling excess cargoes abroad and shutting down domestic wells to avoid over‑pressurising pipelines. Any gas that could not be diverted would have been pushed into household networks at a loss, adding billions to the sector’s crippling debt. Everything changed on 28 February when the United States and Israel launched the "Epic Fury" operation against Iran. The strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted missile sites, air defences and military infrastructure. Iran retaliated with hundreds of missiles and drones, choking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint for roughly 20 % of global oil and gas. As part of its retaliation, Iranian drones hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City on 2 March, the world’s largest LNG export hub. Qatar, the second‑largest LNG exporter after the United States, declared force majeure and halted all production, releasing it from contractual delivery obligations. The fallout was immediate. Qatar’s forced shutdown cut its LNG output by 17 % and disrupted the supply chain that fuels Pakistan, which sources almost all of its imported gas from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Pakistan’s LNG arrivals plummeted from 12 shipments in January to just two in March. Monthly cargo data from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) show that the country received between eight and twelve shipments a month through 2025, but only two arrived after the conflict began. Price pressure followed. On 13 February state‑owned Pakistan State Oil and Pakistan LNG Limited bought eight cargoes at an average of $10.47 per MMBtu (totaling $257.1 million). By 12 March the two cargoes that did arrive cost $12.49 per MMBtu – a 19 % increase in just one month. Long‑term contracts have left Pakistan with little flexibility. Two government‑to‑government agreements with Qatar, spanning 15 and 10 years, commit the country to nine shipments a month. Even as domestic demand fell – LNG’s share of Asian markets dropped from ~30 % in 2020 to ~18 % in 2025 – the contracts remained binding. Solarisation has been a double‑edged sword. By 2025 Pakistan installed 34 GW of solar capacity, with about 25 GW feeding the national grid, driving an 11 % decline in overall electricity demand between 2022 and 2025. Gas‑fired power plants built for imported LNG are now under‑utilised, especially during daylight hours. Analysts warn that the surplus was predictable. “Pakistan’s energy planning has been locked into long‑term contracts with little room for adjustment,” says Haneea Isaad of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). The resulting circular debt now stands at 3.3 trillion rupees (≈ $11 billion), and the government is negotiating to off‑load 177 unwanted shipments worth $5.6 billion through 2031. With Qatar’s LNG shipments effectively halted, the country faces a potential shortfall of more than 21 % of its power generation capacity. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority confirmed that LNG supplies are under force majeure, while coal imports from South Africa and Indonesia continue. To mitigate the gap, Pakistan is reviving domestic gas production that had been throttled during the surplus period. Roughly 350–400 million cubic feet per day of domestic gas were previously held back for LNG imports, now being released to the grid. Nevertheless, analysts caution that even with restored domestic gas, imported coal and hydropower, “the energy shortage may persist, especially during the peak summer months.” Summer pressure is already building. The State of Industry Report 2025 recorded peak electricity demand of over 33,000 MW last summer, while winter demand sits around 15,000 MW, helped by solar generation of 9,000–10,000 MW daily. Furnace oil, the primary backup fuel, now costs 35 rupees per unit (≈ $0.12), more than double since the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Consumers with grid electricity face higher bills and possible outages; industrial users reliant on gas risk production cuts; those equipped with rooftop solar and battery storage are best insulated. “Returning to the spot market is unlikely given Pakistan’s dire financial position, and competing with wealthier nations would price the country out,” Isaad warns. “The realistic outcome may be planned load‑shedding of two to three hours daily.”

Former Labour adviser Polly Billington – who served under Gordon Brown – has urged Prime Minister Keir Starmer to organise a global energy summit of the scale and urgency that marked the UK’s 2008 financial‑crisis intervention. She argues that the fallout from the US‑Israeli war on Iran is creating an energy shock “as big as the financial crash”, demanding a response of equal magnitude. Billington warned that the economic pain from soaring energy prices is “hurtling down the tracks”, threatening living standards and providing fertile ground for extremist politics. She stresses that the price surge will be neither temporary nor confined to a single region. While she praised the government’s initiative to bring together 35 nations to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Billington insists that a broader, coordinated effort is required to stabilise energy markets, protect supply chains, and accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. “We could be bringing together allies to agree emergency cooperation to stabilise energy markets, protect supply chains, coordinate strategic reserves, and accelerate the global transition away from fossil fuels,” she told The Guardian. “Energy security is inseparable from global security; otherwise we face a ‘Hunger Games’ world of resource conflict, scarcity and coercion.” Her call comes amid growing unease among Labour MPs who fear the government is under‑reacting to the domestic impact of the war. Rising petrol prices, higher energy bills and inflation are already prompting concerns about electoral repercussions. At a recent press conference, the Prime Minister announced that the Treasury is drafting targeted support for households most affected by energy costs, should the conflict persist. Yet opposition parties are pushing divergent solutions: Reform UK and the Conservatives advocate increased domestic drilling, the Liberal Democrats propose a 10p fuel‑duty cut and VAT relief for electric‑vehicle charging, while the Greens call for universal energy‑bill support. The Scottish National Party demanded an emergency parliamentary recall, accusing the government of “sleepwalking into a crisis”. Billington argues that a true “war‑footing” approach must focus on reducing Britain’s reliance on fossil fuels. She praises the Treasury’s decision to avoid a blanket bailout, suggesting instead that households install plug‑in solar panels on balconies and gardens – likening them to Anderson shelters in the Second World War – to bolster collective resilience and lower bills. She adds that no policy option should be dismissed as “too radical”, urging the government to consider all measures that could cut exposure to gas and oil. Another Labour MP echoed the sentiment, stating that merely highlighting bill reductions is insufficient when headlines indicate that prices are set to rise sharply due to the Iran conflict. “I want to hear a concrete Labour plan,” he said. On Thursday, Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey branded the rising fuel costs a “Trump‑Farage‑Badenoch tax”, calling for immediate action to mitigate the economic fallout of the war and keep Britain moving.

Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.

Italy’s World Cup hopes were extinguished on March 31, 2026, when Bosnia and Herzegovina won the playoff final on penalties, marking the Azzurri’s third successive failure to qualify for the tournament. The defeat follows two recent setbacks – a surprise loss to North Macedonia in 2022 and a two‑legged defeat by Sweden in 2021 – underscoring a growing crisis for a nation that once celebrated four World Cup triumphs. In a dramatic encounter in Sarajevo, Moise Kean opened the scoring in the 60th minute, giving Italy an early lead. However, the advantage was short‑lived; a red card for Alessandro Bastoni just before halftime reduced Italy to ten men, and Haris Tabaković equalised in the 79th minute. The match proceeded to extra time, where both sides failed to find a winner, setting the stage for a penalty shootout. During the shootout, Bosnia displayed composure, converting four of four penalties. Italy faltered, with Francesco Esposito blasting over the bar and Bryan Cristante striking the cross‑bar, handing the hosts a 4‑2 shootout victory and a place at this summer’s World Cup. Post‑match, Italy manager Gennaro Gattuso described the result as “difficult to digest” and issued a personal apology, acknowledging that the Azzurri are now “the only former champion not to qualify for this edition.” Beyond the scoreline, the game highlighted Italy’s tactical vulnerabilities: early nervousness, a loss of midfield control after Bastoni’s dismissal, and an inability to capitalize on chances despite a dominant possession spell. Bosnia, meanwhile, showed resilience, maintaining pressure throughout and ultimately rewarding it in the decisive shootout. The outcome reshapes the European qualification landscape. Bosnia and Herzegovina secure their first World Cup appearance since 2014, while Italy faces renewed scrutiny over its footballing direction, with calls for structural reforms echoing the fallout from their 2018 “apocalypse” miss.

The United States and Israel have launched a war against Iran that many observers label a monumental breach of international law, echoing the illegal aggression that began with Israel’s campaign in Gaza.According to recent reports, the Pentagon is ready to commit thousands of ground troops to the region, signaling a potential escalation that could last for weeks.Analysts warn that the conflict is poorly planned, especially given Iran’s capacity to disrupt shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The resulting choke‑choke on energy and essential commodities is already pushing the global economy toward a precarious edge, with Asian and African nations bearing the brunt of the fallout.History offers a stark warning. In 2003, the United States invaded Iraq on the premise of a swift campaign, a promise later proved hollow. The war extended for nearly nine years, costing $1.92 trillion in U.S. taxpayer money, claiming over 4,500 American lives, and contributing to more than half a million Iraqi deaths by 2006.Back then, the coalition assembled roughly 250,000 troops—including 150,000 from the United States and 46,000 from the United Kingdom—to invade a country far smaller than Iran. Today, the U.S. maintains about 50,000 troops in the Middle East, a modest increase of 10,000 over its usual presence, yet the objectives being discussed—occupying Iranian territory, seizing uranium stockpiles, and controlling key islands—appear overly ambitious.Israel’s role is also intensifying. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced an expansion of Israel’s security buffer in southern Lebanon, a region Israel occupied from 1982 to 2000. Since the 2024 cease‑fire with Hezbollah, Israel has reportedly violated the agreement around 10,000 times in its first year, suggesting that a weakened Iran could serve as a strategic boon for Israeli ambitions in Lebanon.For the United States, the war risks becoming a “Venezuela‑style” takeover that is far more complex than anticipated. As the conflict drags on and the prospect of U.S. ground combat looms, public support—already low—could erode further, potentially jeopardizing the political standing of President Trump ahead of the mid‑term elections.Critics argue that repeating the Iraq‑war playbook may not only fail to achieve its stated goals but could also hand strategic advantage to rival powers such as Russia or China, reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East.

Kano’s bustling Sabon Gari Market has turned into a frontline for Nigeria’s growing e‑waste dilemma. Residents like Marian Shammah, a 34‑year‑old cleaner, purchase second‑hand refrigerators for as little as 50,000 naira (≈ $36), only to see them fail within weeks, forcing them back to the market for another replacement. For many Nigerians, imported used appliances are perceived as more durable than locally produced models, despite the fact that a substantial portion arrives already defective. UN data indicate that roughly 60,000 tonnes of used electronics reach Nigeria each year, with at least 15,700 tonnes damaged on arrival. A 2015‑2016 UN tracking study found that over 85 % of these imports originated from Germany, the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, China, the United States and Ireland. These shipments frequently breach the Basel Convention, the international treaty that restricts the export of hazardous e‑waste to countries with weaker environmental safeguards. Yet, exporters exploit loopholes—labeling cargo as “personal effects” or “for repair”—to evade thorough inspections. Health experts warn that the fallout is severe. E‑waste contains substances such as mercury, lead, and banned refrigerants (R‑12, R‑22) that persist in the environment for decades. Informal recyclers in Kano dismantle appliances without protective gear, inhaling toxic fumes and handling heavy metals, which leads to chronic respiratory problems, skin irritation, and even reproductive issues. A recent study by the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health linked these symptoms to long‑term toxic exposure among workers and nearby residents. Local medical professionals echo these concerns. Dr. Ushakuma Michael Anenga of the Benue State Teaching Hospital highlighted that heavy‑metal contamination and refrigerant gases jeopardize both respiratory and renal health, especially for children and pregnant women. Economically, the trade offers a false bargain. While a second‑hand fridge may cost half the price of a new unit, failures within months impose hidden costs—spoiled food, repeated purchases, and lost income for small business owners. Vendors such as Umar Hussaini admit that many items are sold “as is,” without warranties or functional testing, and that a significant share of imports arrive with faults. Nigeria’s regulatory body, the National Environmental Standards and Regulations Enforcement Agency (NESREA), asserts that imports are permitted only when they meet strict functionality criteria. In practice, however, traders often declare goods as household items to bypass scrutiny, and enforcement remains uneven. Industry observers argue that the profit margins for exporters and local brokers—who capitalize on the price differential between costly recycling in Europe and high demand for affordable “tokunbo” goods in Nigeria—are driving the continued influx. Ibrahim Adamu of the NGO Ecobarter calls for reinforced border inspections and extended producer responsibility schemes to shift the financial burden of safe disposal back onto manufacturers. With estimates that up to three‑quarters of imported electronics may be essentially junk, the situation underscores a broader systemic issue: wealthy nations offload hazardous waste while developing economies bear the environmental and health consequences. Until comprehensive enforcement and international accountability mechanisms are established, Nigerian consumers like Shammah will remain caught between the need for affordable appliances and the risk of repeated loss.

Europe has achieved staggering progress in clean power production, but its efforts are being undermined by a slow transition away from fuel-burning machines. According to Adrian Hiel, director of the Electrification Alliance, the EU has radically transformed its power supply but now needs to focus on increasing the use of electricity in everyday applications.The sluggish pace of electrification has left households exposed to higher bills as the Iran war has driven oil and gas prices to soar. The International Energy Agency has called for a faster shift to electric cars and heat pumps to complement its fuel-saving action plan.Hiel emphasized that high taxes on electricity are a major barrier to the green transition, suggesting that electricity should be taxed like a fresh apple, not like alcohol and tobacco. EU leaders, including Ursula von der Leyen, have acknowledged the need to adjust energy taxes to promote clean air and secure energy.The Electrification Alliance, which includes industry associations like SolarPower Europe and the International Copper Association Europe, is pushing for a faster switch to a decarbonized economy. Hiel noted that the falling cost of clean technology has made it easier for people to ditch fossil fuels, citing his own experience of insulating his home and installing a heat pump and solar panels.Looking ahead, Hiel warned that gas prices are likely to remain high for several years, putting pressure on governments to help households pay their bills and potentially hindering efforts to promote home electrification.

The global energy crisis caused by the war in Iran and the fallout from the Ukraine conflict is equivalent to the combined force of the twin oil shocks of the 1970s, according to the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA).Fatih Birol, the IEA's executive director, warned that the growing fallout could be seriously compounded by interruptions to the 'vital arteries of the global economy', including petrochemicals, fertilisers, sulphur, and helium.The crisis, which started with bombings against the regime in Tehran on 28 February, already represents the loss of 11m barrels of oil per day and about 140 bcm of gas. This is comparable to the losses seen in the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, which saw a loss of about 5m barrels of oil per day each, and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which removed about 75bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas from international markets.Birol said that at least 40 energy assets in the Gulf region had been severely or very severely damaged, so even an end to the conflict would not immediately restore energy supply. He also noted that the Asia Pacific region had been badly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil supply is transported.The IEA has taken emergency measures, including the release of 400m barrels of oil from strategic reserves, the largest emergency measure in its history. Birol said he is consulting world leaders about another possible release of emergency oil supply, noting that the initial move was only 20% of overall stocks.