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Early signs point to the United States and China moving towards a relationship focused on pragmatic areas of common interest following President Donald Trump's trip to China, according to analysts, setting aside the turmoil that marked 2025. Business‑First Agenda Sets the Tone at the Beijing Summit The three‑day summit in Beijing brought together Donald Trump and Xi Jinping alongside a delegation of top American CEOs, including the heads of Apple, Nvidia, BlackRock and Goldman Sachs. The White House readout highlighted "ways to enhance economic cooperation" and "expanding market access for American businesses into China and increasing Chinese investment into our industries". Notably, the statement omitted any reference to China’s rare‑earth export controls, a strategic lever in the tech and defence sectors. Financial Stakes: $14 bn Taiwan Arms Deal and Market Access Promises $14 bn arms deal for Taiwan reportedly in the works, pending Trump’s sign‑off. Potential expansion of market access for U.S. firms in sectors ranging from semiconductors to finance. Chinese interest in purchasing more American oil to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical Ripple Effects: From Taiwan to the Strait of Hormuz Both leaders sidestepped several flashpoints. While Xi called Taiwan the "most important issue" in the bilateral relationship, neither side mentioned concrete steps on the island or on future arms sales. The summit also touched on the Strait of Hormuz, with both leaders agreeing it must remain open for global energy flows, despite ongoing conflict in the region. What Comes Next: Potential Shifts in Trade, Security and Energy Cooperation Analysts such as William Yang (Crisis Group) and Chucheng Feng (Hutong Research) view the summit as an attempt to lay a "floor" for the relationship, establishing guardrails while leaving item‑by‑item disagreements secondary. The next months will test whether the business‑first rhetoric translates into tangible policy – from the fate of the Taiwan arms package to renewed Chinese investment in U.S. industries and coordinated efforts to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

The high‑profile meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing ended with little evidence of a new diplomatic path to halt the war that has ravaged Iran for over two months. Despite intensive U.S. pressure on China to mediate, the summit produced only parallel statements that reaffirmed existing positions.Summit Talks and Stalled Diplomatic ProgressDuring more than 40 hours of negotiations, the two leaders issued statements that highlighted their shared desire for a ceasefire but offered no concrete mechanisms. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated its four‑point peace plan, emphasizing dialogue, shared security, and development‑driven cooperation, while the White House stressed that the Strait of Hormuz must stay open and that Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon.Both sides agreed on the strategic importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open for global energy flow.China pledged to support ongoing ceasefire efforts mediated by Pakistan.The U.S. reiterated its stance against Iran’s nuclear ambitions without conceding to Chinese proposals.Casualties and Economic Stakes: Numbers Behind the ConflictAccording to Iranian government figures, the war has claimed the lives of more than 3,000 Iranians. The conflict has also strained global supply chains, with the Strait of Hormuz handling roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG shipments before restrictions began in early March.Iran has limited passage through the strait, allowing only vessels from select countries after IRGC negotiations.The U.S. announced a naval blockade in April, further disrupting oil flows.China, a major buyer of Iranian oil, faces heightened exposure to these supply shocks.Regional and Global Repercussions of the StalemateThe lack of a breakthrough deepens uncertainty across the Middle East and global markets. Energy prices remain volatile, and the prolonged conflict threatens regional stability, with Pakistan continuing its mediation role and other powers watching closely.Global economic growth faces pressure from disrupted trade routes and higher energy costs.Both the U.S. and China claim leverage over Iran, yet their diplomatic approaches remain divergent.U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, continue to urge Beijing to play a more active role.What Comes Next for US‑China‑Iran Relations?Analysts anticipate a continued diplomatic tug‑of‑war. While the U.S. maintains that it does not need Chinese assistance, it also acknowledges Beijing’s influence over Tehran. Future negotiations are likely to focus on:Finding a mutually acceptable framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.Balancing U.S. demands for a nuclear‑free Iran with China’s broader peace‑building agenda.Potential escalation or de‑escalation depending on battlefield developments in the coming weeks.Without a clear shift in policy from either side, the war is poised to extend beyond its 77th day, keeping global energy markets and regional security in a precarious balance.

The LeadThe meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has concluded, and for Taiwan, the outcome is being viewed as a positive one. Despite fears that Trump might overturn Washington's longstanding support for the island democracy, he took a muted approach, sidestepping questions on Taiwan during the talks. Trump's Muted Approach on TaiwanTrump hailed his 'great' meeting with Xi Jinping on Thursday but avoided discussing Taiwan, a move that has been welcomed in Taipei. A White House readout of the meeting also omitted mention of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as a breakaway province. The Data AnalysisXi Jinping had taken a firm tone before the meeting, declaring that 'Taiwan independence' and peace in the Taiwan strait were 'incompatible.' He warned Trump that if the Taiwan issue is not handled properly, it could lead to 'clashes and even conflicts' between the US and China. Wen-Ti Sung, a non-resident fellow with the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, noted that Xi's tone was 'surprisingly firm for summit diplomacy,' signaling to Trump that Taiwan remains a sensitive issue for Beijing. The Impact AnalysisTaiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded swiftly to Xi's comments, stating that 'The Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are not subordinate to one another.' Despite this customary sparring, Taipei is believed to be quietly pleased with the meeting's outcome, particularly Trump's silence on Taiwan. Analyst William Yang suggests that Taipei would welcome Taiwan being mentioned as little as possible, as any deviation from longstanding US policy could be seen as a negative development. The PredictionLooking ahead, experts predict that the US will continue to support Taiwan, particularly in terms of arms sales. The Trump administration has previously angered Beijing with a significant weapons package for Taiwan, and there are reports of another package worth around $14bn awaiting Trump's approval. With Taiwan's parliament recently passing a reduced defense budget to finance these purchases, there is added impetus for Trump to move forward with the deal.

The Lead: Summit Concludes Without Iran Breakthrough Donald Trump has claimed that the US and China "feel very similar" about ending the war in Iran but offered no details about a possible breakthrough during the final day of his summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing. The Diplomatic Stance: Shared Goals but No Clear Path "We did discuss Iran," Trump said. "We feel very similar about [how] we want it to end. We don't want them to have a nuclear weapon. We want the straits open." He added: "We want them [Iran] to get it ended because it's a crazy thing there, a little bit crazy. And it's no good, it can't happen." The Strategic Pressure: China's Role in Iran Crisis There is much speculation about how much pressure the US is putting on China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, to use its leverage with Iran to encourage the country to reopen the strait of Hormuz. US trade representative Jamieson Greer said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Friday that the Chinese "don't want to be on the wrong side" on the Iran issue. "It's really important for China to have the strait of Hormuz open," Greer said. The Economic Calculus: China's Energy Security Concerns About half of China's crude oil passes through the waterway, but the bigger threat for the Chinese economy is if the conflict in the Middle East causes a global recession that dents demand for its exports. However, many in Beijing feel that the crisis in Iran is not China's responsibility. The Public Statements: Contradictory Messages US Secretary of State Marco Rubio initially said the US hoped "to convince [China] to play a more active role in getting Iran to walk away from what they're doing now and trying to do now in the Persian Gulf." But later he downplayed the idea that the US was seeking support from Beijing. "We're not asking for China's help. We don't need their help," Rubio said. The Chinese Response: Cautious Diplomacy China's foreign ministry on Friday again called for a ceasefire in Iran and said the strait of Hormuz should be opened "as soon as possible." Zhou Bo, a retired senior army colonel and a senior fellow in the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, said: "On Iran, China definitely wants to help but I read what Rubio said: he actually seems to shift the burden to the Chinese side. In China, we have a saying: it is like, 'Why should I clean your shit?'" The Official Readouts: Diplomatic Language The White House readout of the more than two hours of talks between Trump and Xi on Thursday said the leaders "agreed that the strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy" and that "President Xi also made clear China's opposition to the militarisation of the strait." The Chinese readout of the meeting just made a brief reference to the "situation in the Middle East." The Controversial Remark: Trump's PR Comment Trump raised eyebrows during a TV interview when he suggested that finding Iran's enriched uranium was primarily for show after Israel demanded it as a goal. "I just feel better if I got it, actually, but it's – I think, it's more for public relations than it is for anything else," the US president told Fox News host Sean Hannity. The Trade Deals: Symbolic Gestures Trump told Fox News that China agreed to buy US oil, soybeans and 200 Boeing planes. But on key issues including Taiwan, there seems to have been little by way of concrete agreement. Trump was heard saying on his way into the tea room at the Zhongnanhai garden that Xi was giving him roses for the Rose Garden, according to a White House pool report. The Strategic Balance: Shifting Power Dynamics Julian Gewirtz, a former director for China on the national security council during the Biden administration, said the new Chinese formulation about US-China relations was about "locking in this current phase of strategic stalemate for the remainder of Trump's term and ideally beyond." Wu Xinbo, a professor of international studies at Fudan University and a Chinese government adviser, said the balance of power between the US and China was "shifting towards greater parity." "In the past, it always seemed as though the United States held the upper hand, constantly exerting pressure on China and taking the offensive. Now, however, it's fair to say that the two countries have reached a new point of equilibrium," Wu said.

The Trump‑Xi Beijing Summit on Hormuz Amid Iran’s WarDuring a high‑profile meeting in Beijing on May 15, 2026, President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping discussed the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz. The White House reported that Xi agreed the waterway “must remain open to support the free flow of energy,” a statement aimed at tempering market anxiety as the Iran‑Israel‑US conflict drags on.Trump emphasized that China would help keep Hormuz open but pledged not to supply military equipment to Iran.Xi reiterated China’s interest in stable energy routes, positioning Beijing as a neutral facilitator.Numbers Shaping the Conflict: Ship Transits and Market RipplesIranian media disclosed that more than 30 ships, including vessels linked to Chinese firms, were permitted to pass through Hormuz overnight, signalling Tehran’s willingness to showcase a “open to all commercial ships” policy.30+ ships transited Hormuz, a notable increase amid heightened tensions.Global energy markets reacted with modest volatility, reflecting investor concern over supply security.Geopolitical Shockwaves: BRICS Alignment and Regional TensionsAt a BRICS+ summit in New Delhi, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called on member states to condemn the US‑Israel war, accusing the United Arab Emirates of direct involvement in aggression against Iran. Simultaneously, third‑round talks between Lebanese and Israeli negotiators continued in Washington, while Israel prepared a lawsuit against the New York Times over a controversial article.Iran urged BRICS to oppose “Western hegemony.”UAE was accused of active participation in the war.Lebanon‑Israel ceasefire talks remain fragile, with security guarantees and Hezbollah disarmament at stake.What Comes Next: Scenarios for Hormuz, BRICS, and the Iran WarAnalysts see three likely trajectories:Optimistic path: Continued China‑US cooperation keeps Hormuz open, BRICS adopts a neutral stance, and diplomatic pressure forces a ceasefire within weeks.Stalemate path: Hormuz remains technically open but faces intermittent closures, BRICS stays divided, and the conflict drags on, further destabilising energy markets.Escalation path: Any breach of Hormuz triggers a broader naval confrontation, drawing additional powers into the war and prompting severe economic fallout.Monitoring ship traffic, BRICS statements, and the outcome of the Washington‑based Lebanon‑Israel talks will be critical to gauge which scenario unfolds.

During a high‑profile state visit to Beijing, President Donald Trump met with President Xi Jinping to discuss the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran’s foreign minister used the occasion to urge BRICS members to denounce the ongoing US‑Israel conflict, highlighting the lingering shadow of the unresolved US‑Iran war.Trump and Xi Discuss Keeping the Strait of Hormuz OpenThe White House confirmed that the two leaders focused on ensuring the waterway remains free for energy shipments.Both leaders agreed the strait “must remain open to support the free flow of energy”.The discussion came amid heightened tensions over Iranian oil exports.Iran’s Appeal to BRICS Nations Over US‑Israel WarIranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called on fellow BRICS members to condemn what he described as a violation of international law.Araghchi framed the US‑Israel actions as an “aggression” against Iran.The appeal seeks to rally economic and political backing from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.Strategic Implications for US‑China‑Iran RelationsThe juxtaposition of US‑China dialogue with Iran’s diplomatic push signals a complex triangular dynamic:China may leverage its BRICS ties to balance US pressure on Iran.The US faces a diplomatic dilemma: maintain a strong partnership with China while confronting Iranian challenges.Potential Diplomatic Trajectories in the Coming WeeksAnalysts anticipate several possible developments:China could mediate a de‑escalation framework for the Strait of Hormuz.BRICS may issue a joint statement, testing the bloc’s cohesion on security issues.The US might intensify sanctions on Iran, risking further strain on its China relationship.

Trump's Beijing Visit: A High-Stakes Diplomatic GambitFormer U.S. President Donald Trump is planning a return to Beijing with a agenda that places Iran, Taiwan, and broader trade concerns at the center of discussions.Geopolitical Context: Iran, Taiwan, and Trade TensionsIran remains under extensive U.S. sanctions, creating friction with Chinese economic interests.Taiwan’s security situation continues to be a flashpoint between Washington and Beijing.Trade disputes, especially around technology and tariffs, have shaped recent U.S.–China relations.Available Information and SourcesThe details of the itinerary and specific meeting participants have not been disclosed. The report originates from Al Jazeera on 2026‑05‑14, and no official statements from the White House or Chinese government have been released at this time.Potential Implications for International RelationsA direct dialogue could alter the trajectory of U.S. sanctions policy toward Iran.Engagement on Taiwan may influence regional security calculations.Trade negotiations could address lingering tariff issues and technology transfer concerns.Outlook and Next StepsObservers will watch for any formal communiqués following the visit, which could signal shifts in diplomatic strategy. The outcome may affect not only bilateral U.S.–China ties but also broader geopolitical dynamics across the Middle East and the Indo‑Pacific.

The Lead Jerome Powell's term as chair of the United States Federal Reserve Board of Governors will come to a close on May 15, marking the end of a tenure characterized by tension between the White House and the central bank. Powell will continue to serve as a governor on the board. Powell's Term and Trump Tensions Powell was first appointed by President Donald Trump in 2018. During his term, Powell faced significant political pressure from Trump, who advocated for more aggressive interest rate cuts. Despite this, Powell maintained the central bank's independence, stressing that monetary policy decisions were made without consideration for political factors. Powell was nicknamed 'Too Late Powell' by Trump due to the Fed's cautious approach to cutting interest rates. The Fed began cutting rates in September 2019, and Powell continued to defend the central bank's independence. The Data Analysis Under Powell's leadership, the Fed implemented several measures to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, including: Cutting short-term interest rates to a range of 0 to 0.25 percent. Purchasing US government and mortgage-backed securities. Launching lending programs, such as the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The Impact Analysis Powell's tenure was marked by efforts to maintain the Fed's independence in the face of political pressure. His actions, and those of the Fed, had significant implications for the US economy, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. The central bank's decisions helped ensure a quick rebound from the economic shutdowns in 2020. The Prediction With Kevin Warsh set to take over as chair, there are concerns about the potential for increased political influence on the Fed. Analysts predict that the central bank will maintain interest rates well into 2027. Warsh has vowed to maintain independence, but his past statements on rate cuts have raised some concerns about his approach to monetary policy.

The Diplomatic Opening in BeijingOne day into US President Donald Trump's visit to China for trade talks, both he and Chinese President Xi Jinping have exchanged toasts at a state banquet at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, and hailed their relationship as the world's most "consequential". On Thursday, following a visit to the Temple of Heaven, a 600-year-old landmark in the Chinese capital, Xi spoke of a "shared US-China future", while also warning that failure to handle this bond would create a "very dangerous situation"."We must make it work and never mess it up," he said.The Personal Diplomacy Between LeadersThe US president described his Chinese counterpart as "my friend" in his opening remarks at the state banquet that Xi hosted for the American leader. "We are going to have a fantastic future together. I have such respect for China, for the job you've done. You are a great leader," he told Xi.Trump also invited Xi and First Lady Peng Liyuan to pay a return visit to the White House on September 24. For his part, the Chinese president said he was "very happy" to meet Trump in Beijing at a time of "historic turbulence" when "the world stands at a new crossroads".Xi posed a series of questions to the US president: "Can we join hands to address global challenges and inject greater stability into the world? Can we uphold the wellbeing of our respective peoples and the shared future of humanity, working together to create a bright future for our bilateral relationship?"China's reception underscored how highly Xi regards this visit. Trump was welcomed at the Great Hall of the People, the seat of power in China, "the equivalent of the White House and all other important centres of power combined". Additionally, Vice President Han Zheng greeted Trump at the airport when he landed in Beijing on Wednesday, making him the highest-ranking Chinese official to ever welcome a US president.Strategic Framework for Bilateral RelationsXi and Trump agreed to frame their relationship as "constructive, strategic and stable" in a new positioning that is intended to guide US-China ties for the next three years and beyond, according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement about talks between the two.Trump said the relationship between the two countries went back to the founding of the US, noting that the early American traders who visited China were described, by the Chinese, as "the new people". Today, he said, the two countries' bilateral ties were among "the most consequential" in the world.The Chinese president said the two countries should become partners, rather than rivals, adding that "mutual respect is key to stable China-US ties". "I have always believed that the common interests between China and the US outweigh the differences," Xi said. "Let 2026 be a historic and landmark year for Sino-US relations to carry on the past and open up the future."Trade and Economic NegotiationsTrump and Xi discussed trade, with Xi saying that China's door of opportunity will open wider. What this means is not explicitly clear yet, but Trump will be hoping it includes a Chinese pledge to buy US soya beans, beef and aircraft. Officials in the Trump administration also hope to move towards setting up a Board of Trade with China to manage commercial disputes between the two countries.Xi also met with US business leaders who have accompanied Trump on this trip on Thursday. The US and China entered a tariff threat standoff last year, with each side imposing retaliatory tariffs on each other's exports. China also restricted exports of some rare-earth metals, which are crucial for technology manufacturing, in April. Later in the year, it announced plans to restrict several others. Those later plans are on pause since a truce was agreed between the two presidents in October last year on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea.In return for China's agreement to pause restrictions on rare-earth metal exports, Trump dropped a threat of 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods.The Taiwan ChallengeThe Taiwanese government maintains that the self-governing island of 23 million people is a sovereign state. During the meeting on Thursday, Xi reportedly warned Trump that the issue of Taiwan – which China regards as its own territory – could lead to conflict between Washington and Beijing if it is not handled carefully.However, Taiwan was not mentioned in a joint statement following the meeting, and Trump notably ignored a question from reporters about his stance on Taiwan. This is a tricky issue for the US. While the US government officially acknowledges that China views Taiwan as part of its territory, it does not explicitly state whether or not it agrees with that stance.The US formally severed official diplomatic ties with Taiwan – also known as the Republic of China – decades ago, but remains committed under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to supporting the defence of the self-governing democracy. That law has enabled Washington to supply Taiwan with billions of dollars' worth of weapons and to deepen cooperation in areas such as military training and intelligence sharing, moves Beijing regards as meddling in its internal affairs.Xi has told Trump that the "Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations", Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning posted on X on Thursday. "If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy," she wrote.Taiwan's Foreign Ministry released a statement saying that China is "currently the sole risk to regional peace and stability", after Xi warned Trump. "Beijing has no right to make any claims on behalf of Taiwan internationally," the statement added.Global Security CooperationThe US-Israel war on Iran, which entered its 76th day on Thursday, also came up in the meeting between Trump and Xi. In their joint statement, Trump and Xi agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open and Iran should never have nuclear weapons.US officials have previously said that they might need China's help in convincing Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. But analysts say Beijing will want concessions from the US, likely regarding Taiwan, in exchange for any aid in resolving the crisis.Future Outlook for US-China RelationsTrump and Xi may meet again on at least two other occasions this year – the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' meeting, in Shenzhen, China, in November; and the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Miami, Florida in the US in December. It would be unprecedented for the US president to travel to China twice in one year.The tone set during these initial talks suggests both sides recognize the importance of managing their complex relationship carefully. Xi's warning about not "messing it up" indicates the high stakes involved, while Trump's personal approach and emphasis on friendship suggests he may be seeking a personal channel for diplomacy alongside official channels.As both nations navigate differences on trade, Taiwan, and global security issues, the framework they've established as "constructive, strategic and stable" will be tested in the coming months. The frequency of their planned meetings suggests both sides understand the need for constant communication to prevent misunderstandings that could escalate into conflict.