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The Lead The trade war between the US and China is expected to be a long and complex one, with far-reaching consequences for the global economy. While the US goal of curbing China's export dominance is justified, Trump's strategy of scattershot protectionism and belligerence against potential allies is flawed. China's Export Juggernaut China accounts for about a third of the world's manufacturing output, and its share of global manufacturing exports has risen from 3% to 20% over the past few decades. The country has become a dominant player in the global supply chain, with a near-monopoly on critical commodities and products such as pharmaceutical components, critical minerals, and essential chips. The Data Analysis China's share of global manufacturing output: about 33% China's share of global manufacturing exports: 20% China's current account surplus: 3.8% of GDP (official), up to 5% (according to some analysts) The Impact Analysis The trade war will come at a cost to economic wellbeing, with prices of consumer goods rising as countries block imports from China. Manufacturers will have to cope with pricier Chinese inputs, and Chinese exporters will have a harder time finding markets to place their products. The risk of China leveraging its dominance in critical commodities and products to retaliate against countries that block its products or seek to shake its dominance is high. The Prediction A more coordinated approach with allies and targeted tariffs could help mitigate economic pain. However, even a better strategy will not avoid economic pain entirely. The US, Europe, and other major economies will need to build alternative sources of critical commodities and other inputs, a process that will be slow, tortuous, and dangerous.

The Lead The administration of US President Donald Trump has proposed new tariffs of up to 12.5 percent on imports from 60 economies after determining they had failed to curb trade in goods made with forced labour. Forced Labour Concerns The proposal from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), issued late on Tuesday, comes from a Section 301 unfair trade practices investigation designed to help rebuild US President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs, struck down by a US Supreme Court decision in February. Economic Impact The USTR proposed 10 percent additional duties on imports from Canada, Ecuador, the European Union, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Malaysia, Taiwan and Britain. The USTR said all had plans or partial schemes in place. 10% additional duties on imports from 14 countries and regions 12.5% additional duties on imports from 45 countries Global Trade Implications Despite laws banning them, the products of forced labour are deeply embedded in supply chains across the world. European lawmakers bristle at the accusation that the region is less effective than the US at curbing the trade in such goods, with one describing the US findings as “utterly absurd”. Business leaders said the US move created more confusion for companies. Future Outlook The USTR said it would accept public comments on the proposed tariffs and other remedies through July 6, with a public hearing scheduled for July 7. The announcement comes ahead of the July 24 expiration of a 10 percent temporary tariff imposed by the Trump administration on February 20.

The Energy Imbalance Iran is facing more energy constraints as its summer season begins, with the widespread use of air conditioning and other needs during hotter months contributing to an imbalance between supply and consumption. Government's Limited Options For decades, successive Iranian governments have kept utility bills well below supply costs for households and offices through a mix of implicit oil-and-gas subsidies, administered tariffs, state-controlled pricing, and sometimes direct financial support. However, the negative impacts of the war with Israel and the United States on the economy mean the government has fewer tools at its disposal to deal with an energy crisis this summer. Data Analysis Despite having the world's third-largest proven crude oil reserves, Iran will have to import fuel again as demand outpaces refinery output. The administration's attempts to tackle the subsidies burden due to a mounting budget crunch have resulted in only limited increases in petrol through a complex three-tiered pricing system. Most users of Iranian-made vehicles have access to 60 litres (15.85 US gallons) per month of subsidised petrol at 15,000 rials (0.8 cents) and another 100 litres (26.42 gallons) at 1.6 cents. Any use over tier 1 and tier 2 is priced at 50,000 rials (around 1.4 cents) and Iranians are allowed a maximum of 30 litres of fuel per day under any of these prices schemes. Impact Analysis The Iranian government is running similar schemes for natural gas, electricity and urban water, with fears of social unrest making them averse to any sudden price hikes. There appears to be little the government can do to bridge the divide between lower energy production and growing demand for subsidised fuel, illustrated by the perpetual queues at petrol stations since the start of the war. Prediction The situation has worsened during the war, with strikes on Iranian energy facilities seeing Iran's gasoline production capacity drop marginally from 115 million litres (30.37 million gallons) per day to 110 million litres (29.06 million gallons). Meanwhile, consumption has jumped from 10 million litres (2.64 million litres) in 2025 to 140 million litres this year (36.98 million litres). US President Donald Trump's threats of more strikes on power plants have heightened fears of further blackouts and gas shortages this summer, meaning the energy crisis is likely to continue in the coming months.

The Presidential Pitch United States President Donald Trump has sought to reassure farmers hard-hit by tariffs and the economic fallout of the US-Israeli war with Iran during a visit to Wisconsin. Farmers Hit by Tariffs and High Prices The stop in Chippewa Falls on Friday for a farming roundtable comes months before the midterm elections in November. Trump was seeking to bolster support for Republican US Representative Derrick Van Orden, who has been targeted by Democrats hoping to take control of the chamber. Farmers have been particularly hard-hit by Trump's aggressive tariff policies, with many countries limiting imports of US products, notably soybeans, in response. The tariffs have also made importing items needed for daily operations more expensive. Economic Challenges Facing Farmers The administration has sought to offset the fallout with temporary aid packages for farmers. An April survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation found that 70 percent of farmers in the US reported they cannot afford all of their fertiliser needs. The average gas price of $4.04 per gallon of petrol this week was also $1.08 higher than a year ago, according to the American Automobile Association. The Impact on Midterm Elections Democrats are considered favourites to take control of the US House of Representatives, currently controlled by Republicans, in the midterms. Success for Democrats would allow the party to seriously restrict Trump's agenda in the final two years of his term. The Future Outlook Trump assured those gathered that the administration had 'largely finished' the war 'one way or the other'. He vowed fertiliser and gas prices would come 'way down'.

UK car registrations in May 2026 rose 7% to 160,662, marking the strongest monthly total since before the Covid pandemic and highlighting the accelerating shift toward electric vehicles.Chinese EV Brands BYD and Chery Lead the RecoverySales from Chinese manufacturers powered the overall increase, with BYD delivering 5,200 cars and Chery selling 8,200 across its Chery, Jaecoo and Omoda lines. Other Chinese‑owned brands also posted notable gains:MG (SAIC) – ~7,500 units, up 13%Leapmotor – 900 units (nearly zero a year earlier)Geely – 1,100 units (nearly zero a year earlier)Numbers Reveal a 7% Rise and EVs Capture Over 27% of the MarketTotal registrations: 160,662 (+7% month‑on‑month)Battery‑electric cars: > 27% of all salesTesla’s UK sales jumped 45% in May, though annual growth is only 3%Why the UK Market Is Favoring Chinese Imports and Electric VehiclesThe UK has not imposed punitive tariffs on Chinese car imports, allowing manufacturers to price competitively. At the same time, consumer demand for low‑emission vehicles has been boosted by:Government EV grants introduced in July 2025Rising fuel prices linked to geopolitical tensions (US‑Israeli war in Iran)Private buyers, rather than corporate fleets, driving the strongest May increase since 2019Future Outlook: Chinese EV Momentum and UK Emissions TargetsAnalysts expect the Chinese EV surge to continue, pressuring the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) and the government to revisit the zero‑emission vehicle (ZEV) sales targets. While the official target sits at 33% of new sales, industry think‑tank New AutoMotive estimates a realistic goal of 24.6% due to built‑in flexibilities. Ongoing lobbying for weaker targets suggests a potential policy shift, but strong consumer momentum is likely to keep electric‑vehicle market share on an upward trajectory.

A New Vision for Global ProsperityIn our increasingly dystopian world, the World Justice Report offers a utopian antidote by outlining how to build a prosperous, equitable world within safe planetary boundaries. This ambitious plan from the modern eco-socialist left presents a comprehensive vision for the future that could see the majority of people working less and earning more by the end of the century while keeping temperatures down and avoiding much of the current destruction of nature.The Core Principles of the Justice ReportThe report incorporates important concepts of "sufficiency" and "planetary habitability," addressing the fundamental question of how to reduce the material impact of economic activity—a topic long ignored by the traditional left. By widening the definition of prosperity and emphasizing "sufficiency," the report demonstrates that quality of life is more valuable than quantity of material goods, echoing ancient philosophies of a "golden mean" and Bhutan's concept of "gross national happiness."Challenging Economic OrthodoxyThomas Piketty, one of the coordinators of the report, argues that the ambition of the mega-rich has become unrealistic and undesirable. "Their new dream is to cover the entire planet with data centres," Piketty states, "This is their economic project for the world. But everybody can see that this is just going to increase the material footprint of our economy, that this is going to make global warming even worse."The Alternative to Techno-ExtractivismThe report stands in stark contrast to the far-right techno-extractivist vision currently being championed by the US president and his supporters in Silicon Valley, who are putting artificial intelligence ahead of renewable technology. In the quest for "energy dominance," the US is using tariffs and military power to widen markets for oil, gas and coal—a strategy that drives the world toward catastrophic levels of global heating and inequality.Bridging the Climate Science GapThe report fills a significant hole that has existed since the inception of the global climate science infrastructure in the 1990s. Robert Watson, a former chair of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, noted that if he could go back in time, he would have added more social scientists to the climate discussion. The "pure scientists" from physics and chemistry initially believed data alone would persuade governments to act, but later wished they had taken more account of social dynamics, economics, politics and psychology.Overcoming the Green Growth IllusionThe report challenges what Piketty calls the "illusion of classless ecology" or the "green growth illusion" that everything will be solved by producing more without worrying about distribution, sufficiency, or structural transformation. This illusion, he argues, has made green policy unpopular for many lower and middle-income voters by ignoring the social dimensions of climate action.The Path to Cultural Transformation"Sufficiency does not mean degrowth," explains Cornelia Mohren, Environmental Coordinator of the World Inequality Lab. "It is about less working hours, a different composition of consumption, and more health and education." The authors emphasize that they don't want to force people to change their lifestyles but rather initiate a cultural shift in how society perceives the good life.A Future Forged in CrisisPiketty acknowledges that crises are inevitable but argues it's important to initiate debates now so that alternatives are already in people's minds and will become more palatable in the future. "People need to get accustomed to the fact that big change will happen in any case," he states. "We are not in a situation where things can just continue as they are forever." The report remains open for suggestions and revisions, inviting global participation in shaping this alternative vision for our shared future.

The President's Defiant Response to New US TariffsLuiz Inacio Lula da Silva told reporters he could not "accept the treatment" after the United States announced a fresh round of tariffs on Brazilian goods, emphasizing Brazil’s willingness to seek other partners if necessary.Trump Administration Announces 25% Tariff on Select Brazilian ImportsOn Wednesday, June 3, 2026, the administration of Donald Trump unveiled a 25 percent duty on a range of Brazilian products, rolling back a tentative detente that had begun after a May White House meeting between the two leaders.Tariffs target specific categories while exempting beef, coffee, rare earths, other metals, energy and aircraft parts.The proposal is being processed under Section 301 of US trade policy, with a public comment period ending in early July.Trade Numbers Reveal a $420 million Surplus for the United States in MarchUS Trade Representative Jamieson Greer cited a "giant" trade deficit, yet public data for March show Brazil imported more from the US than it exported, resulting in a $420 million US trade surplus.Escalating Trade Tensions Threaten Brazil's Diplomatic Strategy Ahead of ElectionsThe tariff announcement arrives as Lula prepares for a tight re‑election race in November against Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Re‑imposing duties could push Brazil to diversify its trade relationships and strain the nascent institutional ties with Washington.Potential Shift Toward Alternative Trade Partners as Tariff Comment Period ClosesWith the comment window set to close in early July, analysts expect Brazil to accelerate talks with other markets to offset possible revenue losses, while the US may reassess its approach if domestic stakeholders raise objections.

The EU's Technological Sovereignty Proposals The EU executive wants to ensure no foreign government or company has access to a “kill switch” to turn off or disrupt vital tech services across the continent, as part of an effort to cut dependencies on the US and China. Reducing Dependency on Foreign Suppliers Publishing “technological sovereignty” proposals that risk further tensions with Donald Trump, the European Commission said on Wednesday the bloc needed to reduce dependency on foreign suppliers in cloud computing, artificial intelligence and semiconductor production. The Data Analysis The EU’s vulnerabilities were exposed last year when China stopped semiconductor exports, almost bringing the European car industry to a halt. Meanwhile, there is concern that Trump or a future US president could use a “kill switch” to terminate US cloud computing services overnight, or require providers to hand over sensitive data. The Impact Analysis Henna Virkkunen, the European Commission vice-president for tech sovereignty, said the 2018 US Cloud Act – enabling federal authorities to access data stored by US providers in other countries for national security reasons – “was not in line with our rules here”. The Prediction The proposals, which have to be agreed by member states and the European parliament, could open a new front in ongoing tensions with the Trump administration, which has criticised EU digital regulation and routinely threatened allies with tariffs.

Trump Announces Forced‑Labour Tariffs on 60 AlliesDonald Trump warned that the United States will levy tariffs of 10%–12.5% on goods from sixty trading partners, including the UK, the EU and Australia, accusing them of allowing forced‑labour in their supply chains. The proposal follows a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling that declared his earlier “liberation day” tariffs unlawful.Scope and Mechanics of the Proposed TariffsThe tariffs would be imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, based on a 98‑page investigation that identified forced‑labour violations in the majority of the targeted economies. While the measures are not slated to take effect immediately, they will be subject to a public comment period before any final rule is issued.Tariff Rates and Affected CountriesEU, Canada, Mexico, Taiwan, United Kingdom: 10% tariffChina, Japan, India, South Korea, Brazil, Switzerland: 12.5% tariffThe report notes that only a handful of nations—Canada, Ecuador, the EU, Indonesia, Mexico, and Pakistan—have not yet imposed a forced‑labour import prohibition, yet the United States still deems them non‑compliant.Political and Trade Fallout Across the AtlanticThe European Commission immediately rebuked the plan, emphasizing that the United States should honour the July 2025 tariff‑reduction agreement that capped duties at 15%. Jamieson Greer, the U.S. Trade Representative, framed the move as a response to “unacceptable” labour standards, while EU officials warned that such unilateral action “breaches the spirit” of existing trade deals.What Comes Next for U.S. Trade PolicyAnalysts predict that Trump will continue to explore alternative legal avenues—potentially the six additional routes he mentioned in February 2026—to circumvent the court’s constraints. If the tariffs proceed, they could reshape supply‑chain decisions for multinational firms and heighten geopolitical tensions ahead of the upcoming election cycle.