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The Energy Imbalance Iran is facing more energy constraints as its summer season begins, with the widespread use of air conditioning and other needs during hotter months contributing to an imbalance between supply and consumption. Government's Limited Options For decades, successive Iranian governments have kept utility bills well below supply costs for households and offices through a mix of implicit oil-and-gas subsidies, administered tariffs, state-controlled pricing, and sometimes direct financial support. However, the negative impacts of the war with Israel and the United States on the economy mean the government has fewer tools at its disposal to deal with an energy crisis this summer. Data Analysis Despite having the world's third-largest proven crude oil reserves, Iran will have to import fuel again as demand outpaces refinery output. The administration's attempts to tackle the subsidies burden due to a mounting budget crunch have resulted in only limited increases in petrol through a complex three-tiered pricing system. Most users of Iranian-made vehicles have access to 60 litres (15.85 US gallons) per month of subsidised petrol at 15,000 rials (0.8 cents) and another 100 litres (26.42 gallons) at 1.6 cents. Any use over tier 1 and tier 2 is priced at 50,000 rials (around 1.4 cents) and Iranians are allowed a maximum of 30 litres of fuel per day under any of these prices schemes. Impact Analysis The Iranian government is running similar schemes for natural gas, electricity and urban water, with fears of social unrest making them averse to any sudden price hikes. There appears to be little the government can do to bridge the divide between lower energy production and growing demand for subsidised fuel, illustrated by the perpetual queues at petrol stations since the start of the war. Prediction The situation has worsened during the war, with strikes on Iranian energy facilities seeing Iran's gasoline production capacity drop marginally from 115 million litres (30.37 million gallons) per day to 110 million litres (29.06 million gallons). Meanwhile, consumption has jumped from 10 million litres (2.64 million litres) in 2025 to 140 million litres this year (36.98 million litres). US President Donald Trump's threats of more strikes on power plants have heightened fears of further blackouts and gas shortages this summer, meaning the energy crisis is likely to continue in the coming months.

The LeadOnce a symbol of national unity and joy, Iran's World Cup qualification now reflects deep political divisions. The national football team's relationship with the public has transformed amid social unrest and political tensions following the death of Mahsa Amini.The Cultural Significance of Football in IranIranian filmmaker Abbas Kiarostami captured the profound importance of football in Iranian society through his film "Life, and Nothing More..." set during the 1990 World Cup. The film depicted a villager, despite having lost family members in an earthquake, adjusting a television antenna to watch Argentina play Brazil. Kiarostami later wrote about this scene: "This sequence is directly drawn from a similar experience during my trip to the earthquake-stricken region in the early days after the disaster. [The man] had his left arm in a cast, was shirtless, and with his right hand was striking one stone against another at the base of the antenna to secure it. I saw that after that event, what mattered there was life – and then football."The Evolution of National PrideAt one time, football and the World Cup held such importance for Iranians that they symbolized hope for continuing life. Qualifying for the 1998 World Cup – after defeating Australia over two legs – was celebrated for years like a national occasion, with special programs, interviews, and repeated broadcasts of match highlights on national television. Four decades later, football – and specifically the national team – has become one of the most controversial aspects of Iranian life at a critical historical moment; a controversy with roots in politics and Iran's collective memory.The Changing Landscape of CelebrationIran have missed two World Cups since 1998 and each qualification has been accompanied by street celebrations – except the most recent one. While videos of past qualification celebrations are easily found online, there are virtually no videos on social media of festivities marking qualification for this World Cup. A segment of Iranian society began distancing itself from the national team after September 2022, when the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody triggered one of the most intense waves of protests since the Islamic Revolution. These protests became known as the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement.The Political DivideAt the time, just before the Qatar World Cup, protesters believed national-team players had not taken a clear stance against the suppression of the demonstrations. Even the players' act of solidarity before the first match, against England, standing in silence during the national anthem in memory of those killed in the unrest, did not bring protesters closer to the team. From that point, for some Iranians, the national team became "the regime's team," and this divide has widened.The Economic and Social ContextEconomic pressure, declining purchasing power and the shadow of war (which had not yet happened) contributed to football's importance for Iranians falling to its lowest level in decades. There is a stark contrast to the atmosphere around the 2014 World Cup, when even a 1–0 loss to Argentina in the second group game led to hopeful street celebrations. During the 2018 World Cup the team's matches were shown on the big screens at Azadi Stadium and received a great response.The Future of Iranian FootballNima, 42, who has lived outside Iran for years, says: "Iran's national team has gone from being a team that represented the people during the war with Iraq or the 1998 World Cup, to a team that now promotes the regime. That's why I no longer care what results they get." This sentiment reflects a growing divide between the national team and a significant portion of the Iranian population, suggesting that football's role in Iranian society may continue to evolve in response to political and social changes.

Iran's football team is preparing for the 2026 FIFA World Cup while the nation remains embroiled in an active conflict with the United States and Israel, a scenario unprecedented in tournament history.Iran's World Cup Campaign Amid Ongoing US‑Israel ConflictThe war between Iran and the US‑Israel coalition began on 28 February 2026 and a tentative cease‑fire has been in place since 8 April 2026. Despite the uneasy pause, sporadic flare‑ups keep the end of hostilities uncertain, casting a shadow over Iran’s participation in a tournament hosted by the US, Canada and Mexico.Logistical Hurdles and Visa DelaysTeam preparations have been disrupted by a series of practical obstacles:More than two weeks of training in Antalya, Turkiye, with occasional trips to Ankara for US‑embassy visa applications.Visa approvals finally obtained from the Mexican embassy in Ankara, allowing travel to Mexico this weekend.Training base shifted from Tucson, Arizona, to Tijuana, Mexico, after US‑entry permit issues.First two group matches scheduled near Los Angeles, a city with a large Iranian diaspora.These logistical setbacks have forced the squad to adapt quickly while maintaining focus on on‑field performance.Psychological Impact on Players and Fan ExpectationsMidfielder Saeid Ezatolahi (29) acknowledged the mental strain: “It is not easy… the political situation can affect the mind of the players.” He added that the large Iranian community in Los Angeles will bring heightened pressure, but also motivation to “make them proud.”Young forward Mohammad Ghorbani (24) echoed the sentiment, emphasizing the team’s role in bringing joy to a nation “going through a lot of difficulties.” The dual burden of representing a war‑torn country and meeting diaspora expectations creates a unique psychological landscape for the squad.Future Outlook: Performance and Regional RepercussionsIran is placed in Group G with New Zealand, Belgium and Egypt. The team’s first match against New Zealand is set for 14 June 2026 at the Los Angeles Rams’ stadium in Inglewood, followed by Belgium on 21 June and Egypt on 26 June in Seattle.Success on the pitch could serve as a symbolic rallying point for Iranians at home and abroad, while continued conflict may amplify scrutiny on the nation’s diplomatic stance. Observers will watch whether the squad can translate resilience off the field into competitive results, potentially reshaping perceptions of Iranian sport amid geopolitical tension.

Los Angeles officials have outlined a massive security apparatus for the upcoming FIFA World Cup, balancing local labor concerns with international geopolitical tensions. The strategy ensures a safe environment for fans while navigating complex diplomatic fallout and regional conflicts.ICE Enforcement Suspended to Avert Stadium StrikesLos Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna confirmed that federal officials from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) will not conduct civil immigration enforcement at any World Cup venues. This assurance comes after stadium workers at SoFi Stadium—which will host the USA's opening game against Paraguay on June 12—threatened to strike over fears of anti-immigrant crackdowns.Labor Peace: Stadium employees, including cooks like Isaac Martinez, expressed fears of workplace raids, stating they did not want to live in fear of detention while working or commuting.Federal Guarantee: Luna contacted the head of Homeland Security for the LA region, securing a promise that while federal agents will be present for general venue security, civil immigration raids are explicitly suspended for the events.Geopolitical Tensions Elevate Security for Iran's MatchesThe security landscape is further complicated by the hosting of two of Iran's group-stage matches. Following military attacks by the US and Israel on Iran on February 28, authorities are on high alert as the two nations attempt to negotiate an end to the conflict.Diaspora Focus: Los Angeles is home to the largest concentration of Iranians outside of Iran, making the team's first match on June 15 a focal point for potential demonstrations.Increased Staffing: Law enforcement will deploy additional personnel to monitor fan zones and the stadium perimeter, acknowledging the unique dynamic brought by current world events.Zero-Tolerance Policing and Airspace RestrictionsBeyond ground security, officials are implementing strict measures to control the airspace and deter opportunistic crime during the tournament, which runs from June 11 to July 19.Drone Crackdown: The FBI has established temporary flight restrictions. FBI Assistant Director Patrick Grandy warned of a zero-tolerance policy, noting that unauthorized drones will be actively intercepted and brought down safely away from crowds.Prosecutorial Warning: Los Angeles District Attorney Nathan Hochman emphasized the unusually large law enforcement presence, warning criminals that committing a crime during this period will result in swift prosecution and severe punishment.

The Lead: Iran's Internet Partially Restored Tehran, Iran – Authorities in Iran have reinstated some internet access three months after taking the country offline at the start of the war with the United States and Israel, but restrictions remain in place for most people. The Iranian government said last week that it had started a process to bring internet access back to a pre-war level, which was already very restricted as Iran was at the time still coming off an earlier 20-day shutdown imposed during deadly nationwide protests in January. The World's Longest Internet Blackout Last week's move ended more than 2,000 hours of near-total internet shutdown in the country of 90 million people, the longest-ever nationwide blackout in the world. But according to numerous user reports, local media accounts and expert analysis, Iranians' free access to the global internet is far from restored. Restricted Access and Blocked Services Access to millions of web pages remains blocked by the state, and almost all global services and apps such as YouTube, Instagram, Telegram, WhatsApp, Facebook and Waze are closed off and are not under consideration for reinstatement. Mobile, wireless and landline connections are slow and patchy, to varying degrees, while many local applications and services regularly malfunction or fail to load. The Black Market for Internet Access Most people are forced into a black market for access to the internet, which has proven lucrative for those selling virtual private networks (VPNs) or other circumvention methods, often through affiliations with the state. Those connections have now become cheaper after the authorities restored some internet bandwidth, but demand for VPNs has skyrocketed, and people remain exposed to scammers and malware while navigating the market. The Architecture of Filtering Meanwhile, even after the partial reopening, Iranian authorities continue to impose several complex layers of restrictions that have effectively turned full internet access into a privilege that very few people authorised by the state can enjoy. Many data centres have yet to be fully brought back online, and some internet protocols like IPv6 and HTTP/3 are blocked, while others like UDP are actively disrupted by the authorities, local media reported. Political Conflict Over Internet Policy That has prompted more criticism against Iran's relatively moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian, who campaigned against hardliners, in part, on reopening the internet. The Sazandegi reformist newspaper criticised the government over the "belated opening" in an op-ed on Saturday while the state-linked KhabarOnline news site wrote that the "Internet's technical infrastructure is the victim of the new architecture of filtering". The Tiered-Access Internet System Authorities have also failed to elaborate on what exactly they plan to do with the tiered-access internet system that they began expanding during the war. As part of the system, Iranians get varying degrees of access – or no access at all – to the global internet based on their profession and other classifications made by the state. To implement the scheme, a so-called "Internet Pro" scheme was introduced, which offers slightly less restricted access for about three times the price of a regular, more restricted internet package. Frustration and Limited Normalcy Still, more people have been able to get back on social media, where they have posted more videos from the war, including one that showed a new view as dozens of missiles rained down on the headquarters of Iran's supreme leader in downtown Tehran on February 28. Others are sharing war experiences, including where they were and how they felt when the first bombs hit the capital. But that hasn't alleviated the frustrations for many. "What we have right now is not the internet," said a Tehran resident, who spoke to Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity. "It's a return to the previous half-closed condition that is now being sold as an achievement."

The Partial Internet Restoration Reveals Public AngerThe partial lifting of internet restrictions in Iran has revealed a rising tide of anger about food price inflation as ordinary Iranians decry annual price increases of 308% for vegetable oil, 190% for chicken, and 170% for rice. Iranian authorities began restoring the connection to the global internet that was severed on the first day of the US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic on 28 February, as it had been during mass protests in January.Connectivity Remains Limited Despite Partial RestorationConnectivity remained patchy on Wednesday, with mobile internet still largely disconnected and many sites remaining restricted. But even the partial restoration was enough to reveal an outpouring of anger over price inflation and food shortages. "Everything is so expensive. It has become a disaster," wrote one user on social media. "You leave the market with a broken heart after spending all your savings. It is unbearable. We have no patience left to lead a normal life."Government Response and Blame-ShiftingPresident Masoud Pezeshkian, who has been given some credit for lifting the internet restrictions, blamed the US for Iran's economic woes, saying Washington "had moved to economic warfare after failing to bring the government down." In a lengthy statement, the ministry of intelligence revealed its concerns that internet freedom could be used for "cognitive warfare", warning that Iran's adversaries aimed to "incite protesters and drag them on to the streets."Hyperinflation Data Reveals Economic CrisisThe government announced the launch of a "resistance economy committee" to crack down on price gouging and address surging shortages, but hyperinflation is now endemic in Iran owing to trade sanctions, exchange rate pressure, and moves taken to reduce subsidies given to traders in January. Data from the International Monetary Fund showed food inflation had risen to between 140% and 200%, pushing overall inflation to 70%. Support for continuing internet restrictions was put at just 9% in a survey published on Wednesday.Government Propaganda and Public ResponseIn an attempt to forestall support for Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late shah, government backers tried to flood the internet with claims directed at "youngsters returning to the internet" that Pahlavi had openly applauded the attacks mounted by Israel and the US. Others expressed simple relief that they could now talk to the wider world. The human rights activist Emadeddin Baghi wrote: "Three bloody months have passed, but not for those who lost a loved one or had their home destroyed. In this period our voices found no echo except on some internal platforms and to the best of our ability we spoke and wrote in defence of the rights of the voiceless."Future Outlook: Digital Rights and Economic InstabilityThe prominent rapper Toomaj Salehi, who was sentenced to death in 2024 for supporting protests in 2022 but was later released, said being connected to the internet was "not a favour to us – it is our right. And without filters as well. Like free elections, freedom of expression, freedom of assembly, freedom of parties, and many other freedoms, these are our rights and not favours," he wrote on X. With public sentiment increasingly turning against the government and economic conditions worsening, Iran faces a precarious future balancing between maintaining control and addressing growing public discontent.

Internet Blackout Flickers Back: The Human Toll After 88 DaysAt about 5 pm on Tuesday, the first wave of messages, images and poems broke through Iran’s near‑total internet blackout that began on 8 January. While many celebrated the return of any connection, the tone was dominated by scepticism, anxiety and grief.Partial Restoration Triggers Mixed Reactions Across IranFirst‑hand accounts illustrate the emotional split:Ellie, 42, an artist from Tehran, described lighting a cigarette, playing SoundCloud and crying, calling the glimpse of connectivity “a small taste of a much greater freedom.”Maryam, a photographer, called the celebrations “nauseating” and warned that the internet is a basic right, not a regime achievement.Mina, 23, a recently arrested protester, warned that the limited return could be a prelude to expanded surveillance, dubbing it “filternet.”Other voices, from students posting “Hello, fellow prisoners” to diaspora activists monitoring loved‑ones, echoed a blend of relief and dread.Scale of Disruption: Numbers Behind the BlackoutDuration: 88 days of near‑total outage.Start date: 8 January – imposed to crush nationwide anti‑government protests.Partial lifts: Gradual restoration in February, a second blackout after late‑February US/Israeli strikes, and the latest limited connectivity on 30 May 2026.Access cost: VPNs became “rocketing” in price, leaving most citizens in digital isolation.Why the Partial Return Deepens Political and Social StrainThe limited connectivity does not signal a liberalisation of digital rights. Instead, it reveals a strategic use of the internet as a tool of control:Regime supporters applauded the government, framing the partial lift as a victory.Iranians on the ground reported that essential services—mobile internet, WhatsApp—remain largely unusable, hampering work and communication.The national security council’s recent approval of “Internet Pro”—a restricted, sector‑specific service—suggests a move toward monitored, commercial‑grade connectivity rather than open access.Diaspora observers noted heightened anxiety over possible surveillance, with many fearing that the restored channels will be used to track dissent.What the Next Phase of “Internet Pro” Could Mean for IraniansAnalysts warn that the rollout of Internet Pro may cement a two‑tiered digital landscape: a limited, state‑approved network for businesses and a heavily throttled, surveilled channel for the general public. If the regime expands this model, the following outcomes are plausible:Increased reliance on costly VPNs and satellite links for uncensored communication.Further erosion of trust in online platforms, driving more citizens to offline or encrypted alternatives.Potential escalation of international pressure as human‑rights groups highlight the disparity between “partial restoration” and genuine freedom of expression.For now, the flicker of connectivity serves as a stark reminder that “what truly came back online is our misery, not freedom.”

The Strategic Retreat: Trump's Iran Policy EvolutionAfter weeks of stop-start negotiations, the US and Iran now reportedly stand on the verge of a deal to end the fighting, with the most immediate consequence being the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This development marks a dramatic shift from President Trump's initial maximalist goals, which included regime change, destruction of Iran's nuclear program, and elimination of its regional proxies.The Peace Deal Terms: Ceasefire and NegotiationsThe reported memorandum of understanding, reached with the help of Pakistani and Qatari mediators, would extend the current ceasefire for 60 days, during which negotiations would take place on the two-decades-old dispute over Iran's nuclear program. Iran's closure of the strategically vital waterway—conduit of 20% of the world's crude oil supplies before the war started—has had a baleful effect on the US economy, sending gasoline prices soaring and leading to a shortage of fertilizer that threatens food supplies and prices.From Maximalism to Reality: Strategic ImplicationsThe specter of fudged compromise illustrates how Trump's maximalist goals have shrunk—and in the eyes of some commentators, been defeated. Robert Kagan, a foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote in The Atlantic that "Trump's endgame is surrender," adding that the president "no doubt hopes that he can slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat." Despite Trump's initial declarations that only "unconditional surrender" would be acceptable, Iran's military capabilities remain largely intact, with analysts estimating that 70% of their ballistic missiles and 70-80% of drones are still operational.Regional Impact: Shifting Power DynamicsThe evolving situation represents a significant shift in Middle Eastern power dynamics. Contrary to Trump's expectations, the Islamic regime remains intact despite targeted assassinations of its leaders. While Trump publicly proclaims successor leadership figures to be "more reasonable" than before, the regime appears to be more unyielding than ever. Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father as supreme leader, was recently quoted as predicting that Israel would cease to exist by 2040. The limited military success of Trump's war of choice is now forcing him to address it through the pragmatic type of compromise that he and his rightwing allies once lambasted Obama for.Future Outlook: Trust Deficits and Political ChallengesRobert Litwak, an international relations professor at George Washington University, noted that Trump is being forced to confront a "persistent tension" in US post-cold-war policy between "transformational" approaches meant to topple rogue states and "transactional" agreements intended to change their behavior. "He's in a box because a transformational outcome is not possible," said Litwak. Trump faces significant political challenges in securing support for what essentially amounts to a variant of the JCPOA that he previously opposed. His credibility deficit with Iran, exemplified by his tendency to reverse positions on Truth Social, further complicates negotiations. As Vali Nasr, an international relations professor at Johns Hopkins University, noted: "The reason [Iranians] don't [sign on] is because they don't trust him. It has nothing to do with ideology or fractured leadership or the midterms. It's because of his record."

Iran is grappling with a deepening economic crisis as the costs of a prolonged conflict strain public finances and push the regime toward greater authoritarian measures. Ordinary Iranians are bearing the brunt of soaring prices, a collapsing currency and shrinking job prospects. The Economic Collapse Following the Conflict The war has drained state coffers, forcing the government to divert resources from social programs to military spending. This reallocation has reduced subsidies on essential goods, intensified shortages and heightened public discontent. Quantifying the Crisis: Inflation, Unemployment, and Currency Devaluation Inflation has accelerated sharply, with reports indicating double‑digit growth in consumer prices over the past year. Unemployment, especially among youth, has risen as private sector activity stalls under heavy sanctions and reduced investment. The national currency continues to lose value against major foreign currencies, eroding savings and import purchasing power. Regional and Global Implications of Iran’s Struggling Economy The economic turmoil is reshaping Iran’s regional posture. A financially strained regime may pursue more aggressive foreign policies to rally nationalist support, while neighboring markets feel pressure from disrupted trade flows and refugee movements. Outlook: Prospects for Reform or Further Decline Analysts warn that without substantial fiscal relief or a de‑escalation of hostilities, Iran’s economy could enter a prolonged downturn. Potential pathways include limited market reforms, renewed diplomatic engagement to ease sanctions, or continued reliance on state control, each carrying distinct risks for the population and the regime’s stability.