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The Lead: Iran's Defiance After 100 Days of ConflictTehran, Iran – Iranian authorities remain defiant 100 days into the war launched by the United States and Israel as no lasting resolution appears in sight, and civilians bear the brunt of a conflict that has roiled global markets.On the streets of the capital, Tehran, most shops are open, although not with as many customers as before. Traffic has been restored, but only partially, since millions of jobs have either been suspended or eliminated after nationwide protests, aerial bombardment and two state-imposed internet shutdowns over the past several months.Armoured vehicles, heavy weaponry and security forces continue to be common sights in the metropolis of about 10 million people at all hours of the day.At night, armed forces are setting up numerous checkpoints across the city, escorting motorcades of state supporters blasting religious slogans. Main squares and many streets are typically closed so that people can gather, often heard chanting slogans against the US and Israel.The Power Transition: Leadership in CrisisPro-government messaging and flags of the Lebanese group Hezbollah and other members of the Tehran-backed "axis of resistance" are widely featured in banners and billboards across Iran.Some vehicles and city murals bear images of Mojtaba Khamenei, who was selected as supreme leader by a clerical body after the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on the first day of the war.Mojtaba Khamenei, who was reportedly wounded in the same US-Israeli strikes that killed his father and other family members, has not been seen or heard from publicly since taking the helm, except for written messages attributed to him.The authorities have yet to hold funeral processions for Ali Khamenei, who ruled Iran for nearly 37 years. His family members were buried a week ago, and other top commanders and officials killed on February 28 were also buried months later.Economic Collapse: Hyperinflation and Currency CrisisYears-long economic woes have only worsened after oil and gas facilities, major steel and aluminium producers and industrial units were extensively bombed across the country. Trump has threatened more attacks against power plants and other civilian infrastructure if the war resumes. Many homes, hospitals, schools, offices and universities are in ruins or suffered damage.Inflation was running unchecked at nearly 84 percent year-on-year during the second month of the Persian calendar year that ended on May 21, according to the Statistical Center of Iran. Food inflation was at 130 percent for the same period, with solid vegetable oil up 431 percent, eggs 342 percent, chicken 287 percent and imported rice by 222 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.Iran's national currency, the rial, is also in the doldrums. On Sunday, it traded at about 1.77 million per US dollar in Tehran's open market – near an all-time low.The stock market has been rising after a controlled reopening last month, which experts told Al Jazeera was predominantly due to inflation, and the side effects of returning after nearly three months of total shutdown. After deals were concluded for Sunday in the Tehran Stock Exchange, the main index was on the verge of retaking the all-time high threshold of 4.5 million points first reached at the start of 2026.Geopolitical Chess: Control of Strategic WaterwaysThe institutions of the Islamic Republic survived and remain in power, as do many officials, including leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who have continued to heavily disrupt the flow of energy and goods through the Strait of Hormuz while fighting off the US blockade of Iran's ports.After roughly 40 days of intense war and thousands of strikes, followed by months of tense "ceasefire" that has now included overnight exchanges of fire for more than a week, an interim deal to reopen the strategic waterway has not materialised. Any longer-term peace deal seems further out of reach.On Sunday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Tehran hosted Pakistan's interior minister, the mediating country which itself was hosting an envoy from Lebanon, in an attempt to bridge gaps over Hezbollah and other issues with the US.In an editorial on Sunday marking the 100-day milestone, the hardline Keyhan newspaper, whose editor-in-chief was appointed by Ali Khamenei, said the experience has taught the system that "America retreated because of missiles, not negotiations"."Disrupt [Donald] Trump's game by halting negotiations and closing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait," Keyhan wrote about the strategic waterway off the coast of Yemen, arguing that the US president is using the talks to keep global oil prices under control.Military Resilience: Iran's Defense CapabilitiesArmed forces have demonstrated that despite the widescale bombing of Iran's military installations, including facilities dug deep into mountains, they retain the ability to fire ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as a variety of drones. They have also continued to shoot down a number of US drones, even though numerous air defense batteries were destroyed during the war.Most Iranian military aircraft and large vessels have also been destroyed, but the IRGC continues to deploy its fast boats and small vessels to advance objectives in the strait.Iranian authorities say they wish to entrench control over the strait and monetise passage, keep highly enriched uranium – now likely buried under the rubble of bombed facilities – inside the country to prevent future attacks, and secure relief from decades of sanctions and asset freezes that have battered the economy.Society Under Siege: Daily Life and RepressionConcerns about assassination and intelligence leaks remain high, keeping the parliament closed, except for a handful of limited or online sessions. Universities and schools have also remained shut, and many deferred exams are expected to be held online. A number of police forces are working from desks set up in the streets after their stations were bombed.The internet has been partially restored after the longest nationwide shutdown in any country, but remains heavily throttled by the authorities, who clamp down on Starlink or other connections that circumnavigate their filtering.The judiciary continues to announce near-daily executions of dissidents, including people arrested during the current war, during the nationwide protests in January and the 12-day war with Israel and the US almost a year ago. Tens of thousands have been arrested over recent months, and many will face intensified punishments based on a law approved after last year's war to punish charges of spying and working for hostile governments.Future Outlook: A Prolonged Conflict with Global ImplicationsAs Iran enters the fourth month of conflict with the United States and Israel, the path to resolution remains unclear. With both sides maintaining hardline positions and the economic situation deteriorating rapidly for ordinary Iranians, the conflict shows no signs of de-escalation.The control of strategic waterways like the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb will likely continue to be a focal point, with potential global repercussions for energy markets and shipping routes.International mediation efforts, including those by Pakistan and other regional actors, may intensify as the humanitarian and economic costs mount, but the fundamental disagreements over Iran's nuclear program, regional influence, and the future of the Islamic Republic's leadership structure remain deeply entrenched.

The Lead: Iran's Internet Partially Restored Tehran, Iran – Authorities in Iran have reinstated some internet access three months after taking the country offline at the start of the war with the United States and Israel, but restrictions remain in place for most people. The Iranian government said last week that it had started a process to bring internet access back to a pre-war level, which was already very restricted as Iran was at the time still coming off an earlier 20-day shutdown imposed during deadly nationwide protests in January. The World's Longest Internet Blackout Last week's move ended more than 2,000 hours of near-total internet shutdown in the country of 90 million people, the longest-ever nationwide blackout in the world. But according to numerous user reports, local media accounts and expert analysis, Iranians' free access to the global internet is far from restored. Restricted Access and Blocked Services Access to millions of web pages remains blocked by the state, and almost all global services and apps such as YouTube, Instagram, Telegram, WhatsApp, Facebook and Waze are closed off and are not under consideration for reinstatement. Mobile, wireless and landline connections are slow and patchy, to varying degrees, while many local applications and services regularly malfunction or fail to load. The Black Market for Internet Access Most people are forced into a black market for access to the internet, which has proven lucrative for those selling virtual private networks (VPNs) or other circumvention methods, often through affiliations with the state. Those connections have now become cheaper after the authorities restored some internet bandwidth, but demand for VPNs has skyrocketed, and people remain exposed to scammers and malware while navigating the market. The Architecture of Filtering Meanwhile, even after the partial reopening, Iranian authorities continue to impose several complex layers of restrictions that have effectively turned full internet access into a privilege that very few people authorised by the state can enjoy. Many data centres have yet to be fully brought back online, and some internet protocols like IPv6 and HTTP/3 are blocked, while others like UDP are actively disrupted by the authorities, local media reported. Political Conflict Over Internet Policy That has prompted more criticism against Iran's relatively moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian, who campaigned against hardliners, in part, on reopening the internet. The Sazandegi reformist newspaper criticised the government over the "belated opening" in an op-ed on Saturday while the state-linked KhabarOnline news site wrote that the "Internet's technical infrastructure is the victim of the new architecture of filtering". The Tiered-Access Internet System Authorities have also failed to elaborate on what exactly they plan to do with the tiered-access internet system that they began expanding during the war. As part of the system, Iranians get varying degrees of access – or no access at all – to the global internet based on their profession and other classifications made by the state. To implement the scheme, a so-called "Internet Pro" scheme was introduced, which offers slightly less restricted access for about three times the price of a regular, more restricted internet package. Frustration and Limited Normalcy Still, more people have been able to get back on social media, where they have posted more videos from the war, including one that showed a new view as dozens of missiles rained down on the headquarters of Iran's supreme leader in downtown Tehran on February 28. Others are sharing war experiences, including where they were and how they felt when the first bombs hit the capital. But that hasn't alleviated the frustrations for many. "What we have right now is not the internet," said a Tehran resident, who spoke to Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity. "It's a return to the previous half-closed condition that is now being sold as an achievement."

Lead: Escalation and Diplomacy Collide on Day 88The United States launched "self‑defence" strikes against missile and mine‑laying assets in southern Iran, targeting the port city of Bandar Abbas near the vital Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, a high‑level Iranian delegation arrived in Qatar to push forward peace talks, underscoring a tense blend of kinetic action and diplomatic engagement.US Self‑Defence Strikes Target Missile Sites in Bandar AbbasWhat happened: US officials said aircraft and drones hit missile launch sites and vessels suspected of laying sea mines.Official framing: Described as "self‑defence" after explosions were reported in the city.Iranian response: State media confirmed the explosions but claimed the situation was under control.Casualties, Repairs and Economic Stakes: The Numbers Behind the ConflictInfrastructure damage: Tehran municipality reports 97 % of buildings damaged in earlier US‑Israeli attacks have been repaired; remaining work expected within a week.Energy flow risk: The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20 % of global oil and gas shipments; any disruption could affect worldwide energy prices.Internet blackout: Nationwide internet shutdown lifted after 87 days, restoring digital communications across Iran.Strategic Ripple Effects: How the Hormuz Incident Reshapes Regional Power DynamicsUS intent: Former diplomat Adam Clements suggests the strikes aim to monitor Iranian maritime capabilities, not to derail talks.Qatar’s role: Doha rejected rumours of financial incentives for Iran, emphasizing its function as a neutral mediator.Political signals: President Donald Trump signalled flexibility on Iran’s enriched uranium, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio affirmed the Strait will stay open.What Comes Next? Scenarios for the Qatar Negotiations and Hormuz SecurityOptimistic track: Continued US‑Iran dialogue could lead to a limited agreement on maritime de‑escalation, preserving Hormuz traffic.Stalemate risk: Persistent disputes over uranium control and regional security guarantees may stall a comprehensive deal.Escalation trigger: Any Iranian attempt to lay sea mines could provoke a "lethal response" from Washington, reigniting broader conflict.

Negotiations Continue Amid Fresh SkirmishesTehran, Iran – Talks between Iran and the United States are ongoing via intermediaries, but no agreement is in sight after a recent exchange of fire heightened distrust.Escalation on the Ground: Recent Missile Strikes and CounterfireThe U.S. military reported striking missile launch sites and Iranian vessels laying mines in southern waters, while Iranian state media said its forces returned fire, resulting in several casualties. The fragile cease‑fire that began on April 8 remains technically intact, but the risk of further clashes persists.Economic Signals: Rial Gains and Stock Market RallyDespite the security tension, Tehran’s markets show signs of optimism. The Iranian rial appreciated more than 5 % this week, trading around 1.73 million per U.S. dollar, close to last month’s all‑time low. The main index of the Tehran Stock Exchange rebounded above 4 million points after a controlled reopening a week earlier, though it fell short of the 4.5 million‑point peak recorded at the start of the year.Broader Economic Strain: Blockade, Inflation, and Internet ShutdownIran’s economy remains under severe pressure from internal mismanagement and external factors, notably the U.S. naval blockade of southern ports and the loss of the United Arab Emirates as a key import source. Inflation continues to erode purchasing power, while a near‑total internet shutdown has crippled jobs and digital commerce. The government is focusing on securing essential food and medicine, but prices for consumer goods, especially electronics previously imported from the UAE, are soaring.What Lies Ahead: Prospects for a Deal and Regional StabilityHard‑line factions in Iran demand full sanction removal and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz before any concession, while some citizens hope a memorandum of understanding could ease economic pressure. Analysts note that any temporary agreement may provide short‑term relief but is unlikely to end the broader geopolitical strain, especially with the upcoming World Cup and ongoing regional tensions.

The Lead: Iran's Market Reopens After War ClosureThe Iranian stock market is set to reopen this week after an 80-day closure due to the conflict with the United States and Israel. While not the core engine of Iran's economy, the reopening will provide crucial insight into the country's economic health and investor confidence amid ongoing challenges.The Event Details: Market Resumption with Extended HoursShares, equity funds, and equity-linked derivatives will resume trading on Tuesday and Wednesday, before the Iranian weekend. Operations have been extended by one hour to accommodate top firms disclosing important information after sustaining damages during the war, as well as those that held shareholder meetings during the closure period.The Securities and Exchange Organization (SEO) deputy Hamid Yari stated the move aimed to "protect investors' assets, prevent emotional behaviours, and create conditions for trade in the market with more accurate and transparent information."The Data Analysis: TEDPIX Performance and Market VolatilityThe TEDPIX, the main index of the Tehran Stock Exchange, had reached an all-time high of nearly 4.5 million points at the start of 2026. However, it plummeted after thousands were killed during nationwide protests in January, followed by a 20-day internet shutdown. Growing expectations of war further spooked investors, with TEDPIX standing at nearly 3.7 million points at the last pre-closure market snapshot.During a previous two-week closure amid the war with Israel in June 2025, the main index of the Tehran exchange dropped by over 15 percent before eventually recovering to reach a new all-time high at the start of 2026.The Impact Analysis: War Damage and Economic ChallengesThe economic woes in Iran have been exacerbated by the war and a US naval blockade on Iran's ports imposed on April 13. During the conflict, US and Israeli fighter jets extensively bombed Iran's economic infrastructure, including petrochemical companies, steel producers, and mining and transport-linked firms that are top performers in the capital market.Banks and the state remain the largest financiers of economic activity in Iran, a country struggling with chronic inflation and harsh sanctions. The Central Bank of Iran often prints money to plug budget holes, which keeps pushing inflation higher and degrading Iranians' purchasing power.The Prediction: Navigating Post-War Market ReopeningMany Iranians continue to hold savings in foreign currency, gold, housing, cars, cryptocurrency, or other assets rather than the stock market. Companies will be divided into three categories for the reopening: those with direct war damage, those affected through supply chains, and firms impacted by the general economic environment.Analysts warn that the reopening will need to be "closely controlled" due to serious concerns about potential panic selling as investors seek liquidity. While authorities have implemented a three percent daily fluctuation limit to curb market volatility, this measure could also trap selling pressure. The success of the reopening will depend on how transparent companies can be about war damage while maintaining security considerations.

The Lead Iran is looking at ways of providing limited connectivity to approved individuals and entities amid a continued state-imposed internet shutdown, with a tiered access model currently being offered that experts have said still undermines the digital rights of Iranians. The Event Details President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday announced the creation of a new entity to review internet coverage in the country named the Specialised Headquarters for Organising and Guiding Iran’s Cyberspace, with First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref, a relative moderate, appointed as its head. Pezeshkian expects Aref to “create institutional cohesion and align policies and measures by relevant bodies” and “prevent parallel work and end multiple voices in the management of the country’s cyberspace”. Aref is also expected to devise and enforce a roadmap to “overhaul cyberspace governance”. The Data Analysis The internet shutdown, which began on February 28, has affected over 90 million citizens, with users only able to access a slow and patchy intranet that supports state-approved local applications and content. The Supreme National Security Council has launched a state-distributed service called “Internet Pro”, which provides users with slightly higher-tier internet services than those offered to most of the population. The service is stated to be for businesses, university professors, lawyers, and other categories of people that the state deems eligible, but some state-linked entities have also been selling access at several times the official price. The Impact Analysis Experts believe that tiered internet access is here to stay in Iran, and that it is rooted in longstanding policies approved by the Supreme Council of Cyberspace after deadly nationwide protests in November 2019. Amir Rashidi, a digital security expert, believes that the new cyberspace headquarters can, at most, provide “a mechanism for better coordination in implementing the policies of the Supreme Council of Cyberspace”. Rashidi said there will be little hope of fundamental changes to government policy. The Prediction Authorities have pledged to restore the internet, but not until the war is concluded, and there is little sign of when that will happen. Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said the internet situation is “temporary”. However, experts and some government officials have expressed concerns that the internet shutdown has ended up harming the country more than defending against cyberattacks and other hostile operations.

The Soaring Food Inflation in Iran Iran is facing a severe food inflation crisis, with the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) reporting a 115% increase in food prices over the past year. This has significantly impacted households, as people struggle to afford basic necessities. Economic Hardship Amidst War The economic crisis is unfolding against the backdrop of an ongoing war with the US and Israel. Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict are intensifying, but the situation remains dire for many Iranians. Price Hikes and Shortages Several staple items have seen significant price increases, including: Solid vegetable oil: 375% Liquid cooking oil: 308% Imported rice: 209% Iranian rice: 173% Chicken: 191% Government Response and Challenges The government has introduced subsidies and coupons to help alleviate the burden, but a clear macroeconomic stabilization package is still lacking. The country's embattled currency, the rial, has also reached new lows. The Impact on Businesses and People The combined effects of the war, sanctions, blockade, and internet shutdown are severely impacting businesses and individuals. The startup ecosystem in Iran has been particularly hard hit, with many describing it as 'dead.' The Future Outlook As the situation continues to deteriorate, it remains to be seen how the Iranian government will address the economic crisis and negotiate a resolution to the ongoing conflict.

In the hours before the US‑Israel strikes on Iran in late February 2026, a Tehran crypto user named Firouz emptied his holdings from Nobitex into a personal wallet, fearing loss of ownership amid war‑time seizures and cyber‑attacks. The Pre‑War Crypto Move by Tehran’s Users Firouz’s instinct to withdraw his crypto mirrors a broader exodus of Iranian savers who view digital assets as a hedge against inflation and state control. Iran’s crypto ecosystem, valued at over $7.78 billion last year, is dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which accounts for roughly 50 % of on‑chain activity in Q4 2025. The IRGC leverages crypto for oil sales, weapons procurement, and import payments, sidestepping traditional banking channels. Sanctions‑Driven Crypto Flows: $10.3 million Outflow and $344 million Freeze Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2026: Chainalysis detected about $10.3 million in crypto outflows following the US‑Israel strikes. April 2026: Iran announced plans to collect tolls for Strait of Hormuz transits in cryptocurrency. June 2025: Outflows from Nobitex spiked >150 % after Israel‑linked cyber‑attack. June 2025: Transaction volume on Nobitex surged 700 % within minutes of the first strike. June 18 2025: $90 million in crypto on Nobitex stolen by the group Predatory Sparrow. 2025: Central Bank of Iran purchased > $500 million in USDT stablecoins. April 2026: U.S. Treasury’s OFAC froze $344 million in Iran‑linked wallets. Why Crypto Has Become Iran’s Financial Lifeline Decades of U.S. sanctions have cut Iran off from the global banking system, prompting a home‑grown crypto market that offers: Preservation of savings against a rial that has lost about 90 % of its value since 2018. Anonymous, cross‑border transfers for individuals and state‑linked entities. Revenue streams for the IRGC through subsidised mining and ransomware operations. However, the ecosystem faces mounting pressure: major exchanges freeze Iranian accounts, internet shutdowns limit access, and OFAC now classifies the entire Iranian crypto space as high‑risk. Future of the Crypto‑Sanctions Tug‑of‑War Analysts expect a continued escalation: The U.S. will likely expand wallet designations and target ancillary service providers, as noted by Chainalysis senior analyst Kaitlin Martin. Iran may double‑down on crypto‑friendly policies, such as expanding crypto tolls for maritime traffic and increasing state‑controlled mining capacity. International regulators could introduce stricter AML/KYC standards for crypto exchanges, further isolating Iranian users. In this cat‑and‑mouse dynamic, crypto remains both a lifeline for ordinary Iranians and a strategic tool for the IRGC, while Washington sharpens its digital‑asset enforcement to choke Tehran’s financial arteries.

Tehran, Iran – Amid a tentative cease‑fire with the United States and ongoing war‑related disruptions, Iran’s government has shifted its economic policy to prioritize the import of essential goods at a subsidised exchange rate. Reinstating a Preferential Exchange Rate for Essential Imports The cabinet added a clause to the annual budget allowing a 285,000 rials per US dollar rate for wheat, medicines, medical equipment and baby formula—far below the open‑market rate of 1.55 million rials and the budget rate of 1.23 million rials. This policy reversal follows protests against the previous plan to eliminate the cheap rate. Financial Scale of Subsidies and Sovereign Fund Withdrawals Up to $3.5 bn from oil and gas proceeds will be funneled to a network of trustees for essential imports. An additional $1 bn is slated to be drawn from the National Development Fund to purchase sugar, rice, barley, corn, soy‑bean meal, red meat and chicken. Current monthly cash assistance to citizens is less than $10 per person. Implications for Iranian Food Security and Inflation Officials say the cheap rate is intended to “guarantee food security” across 11 categories that have seen sharp price hikes, though exact inflation figures were not disclosed. The government is also considering larger handouts and electronic coupons to offset what is described as one of the world’s highest food‑inflation rates. Outlook for Iran’s Economy Amid Ongoing Conflict Analysts warn that while the exchange‑rate subsidy may provide short‑term relief, the broader economy remains vulnerable to sanctions, port blockades and the continued internet shutdown that has crippled jobs and commerce. The expanded powers granted to border governors to streamline imports could mitigate shortages, but persistent smuggling concerns and rising consumer anxiety suggest that price stability will be hard to achieve without a durable cease‑fire.