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The Coming Climate Crisis: A Super El Niño EventA powerful, or 'super' El Niño – marked by 2°C (3.6°F) or greater increase in sea surface temperatures – is now highly probable for this year, lasting into 2027. Weakened trade winds allow warm surface waters to spread across the central and eastern Pacific, disrupting ocean circulation and altering weather patterns worldwide. El Niño is intensifying an already unequal global economy, with food insecurity rooted in dependency and global market integration, while climate shocks expose how supply chains push risk onto the world's poorest populations.Ten Potential Worst-Case Scenarios of a Super El NiñoDroughtDrought hits rain-fed agricultural regions particularly hard. In parts of sub-Saharan Africa grain yields often fall during and following El Niño's, increasing import dependence and raising food prices. This time around, El Niño will occur during an already-existing fertilizer crisis caused by the closure of the strait of Hormuz, leading to warnings about extreme hunger and famine.Shock to Global Food Supply ChainsGlobally, there is a heightened risk of a shock to global food supply chains. Four crops – wheat, rice, maize and soybeans – provide more than 60% of the world's calorie intake. Maize and rice are especially sensitive to El Niño, with drought and disrupted monsoons reducing yields in major producers such as South Africa, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Brazil. Wheat is affected by heat and drought in key exporters like Australia, Canada and China, while soybean production has fallen in countries such as Brazil and Argentina.Wildfire RiskEl Niño can heighten wildfire risk in some regions. In South America, it often reduces wet-season rainfall, leaving vegetation drier and more fire-prone; severe fires in Brazil in 2016 and 2024 burned millions of hectares. These fires release vast carbon stocks and take decades to recover.Excess RainfallParts of the southern United States and South America, the Horn of Africa and central Asia often experience excess rainfall during El Niño, leading to flooding. While heavier rainfall can replenish groundwater, increasingly concentrated storms can also reduce absorption and accelerate soil drying. This is because intense bursts of rainfall exceed infiltration capacity, causing runoff rather than absorption, while longer dry intervals between storms accelerate soil moisture loss.Increased Coal ConsumptionGreater heat can increase already high levels of coal consumption in parts of the world. El Niño brings above-average temperatures and intensifies prolonged heatwaves in South Asia by weakening monsoon rains, which increases demand for air conditioning. Coal-based power systems in Asia supply about 70% of electricity in India and approximately 55% in China.Grid Failure RiskDrought also impacts hydropower generation, increasing risk of grid failures. Colombia, for example, relies upon hydropower for about 65% of its energy generation. During the 2015-16 El Niño, reduced rainfall cut hydropower generation, pushing up electricity prices and increasing risk of blackouts. In the 1992 El Niño, the Colombian government introduced power rationing.Declining Fish StocksEl Niño stops cool water upwelling in parts of the Pacific, limiting nutrient availability for phytoplankton and leaving small fish such as anchovies and sardines without enough food. Larger predatory fish are then negatively affected and often migrate further than usual. Fisheries from California and Mexico, to Peru and Ecuador, and from Papua New Guinea to Micronesia can be affected. Declining catch volumes result as upwelling-dependent fisheries face reduced biomass, leading to lower seasonal harvests and income.Heightened Geopolitical Tensions over Critical Agricultural InputsMore extreme weather could exacerbate geopolitical tensions. Rising temperatures reduce crop fertility and farmers often respond by applying more fertilizers. In the context of the global fertilizer crisis, China, some of the gulf states and Algeria have deployed protectionist measures to limit fertilizer exports. Russia has halted export licenses for ammonium nitrate – a crucial fertilizer ingredient. The United States is attempting to increase domestic fertilizer production as part of its broader America First industrial policy. From a simple agricultural input fertilizer production, trade and use could become another fracture in global politics.Higher Rates of Heat IllnessAll these dynamics impact societies unequally. Workers exposed to heat stress face heightened health risks, particularly in physically demanding jobs such as agriculture and construction, including heat-related illnesses and long-term health damage. During the heat season in India's capital Delhi, temperatures often exceed 40°C, putting an increasing number of its workers' health and lives at risk.Civil ConflictReduced crop yields and weakened economies often intensify social tensions. The likelihood of civil conflict in affected tropical countries can double during El Niño years. According to one study, about 21% of conflicts since 1950 are linked to such climate patterns. In Sudan, including Darfur, drought and harvest failures tied to climate variability including El Niño conditions, exacerbated resource scarcity and already-existing social inequalities, contributing to conflict dynamics.Global System Vulnerability and Unequal ImpactsTaken together, these impacts reveal not just a climate event, but a global system in which environmental shocks are transmitted through supply chains, unequal trade and energy provision and consumption, disproportionately burdening the poor in the global south. The technology and know-how exist to transition away from fossil fuels to renewables, but without transforming the global systems that organize supply chains, energy and trade, these solutions will remain uneven in their reach and impact.Pathways to Resilience and Systemic ChangeThere is extensive knowledge on building resilient agricultural systems that can generate food security whilst contributing to ecosystem restoration. However, breaking out of an export-oriented, chemically intensive agricultural system will take large-scale political transformations. The coming super El Niño represents both a crisis and an opportunity to rethink our global systems and create more equitable, sustainable approaches to climate resilience.

The Lead: Iran’s Water Emergency Unfolds from SpaceFor many Iranians, the most immediate threat is no longer war but water. Decades of drought, over‑extraction and dam construction have pushed the country into severe water stress, depleting reservoirs, rivers and groundwater. Recent satellite images reveal a dramatic contraction of Lake Urmia and dwindling dam levels around Tehran, underscoring a deepening crisis.The Disappearance of Lake UrmiaLake Urmia, the Middle East’s largest saltwater lake, has shrunk from nearly 6,000 sq km in the 1990s to just 581 sq km, less than 10% of its former size. Consecutive droughts, agricultural diversion, more than 60 upstream dams and intensive groundwater extraction have turned vast stretches of the lake into exposed salt flats.The Growing Water DeficitIn 2025 Iran’s 92 million people consumed around 100 billion m³ of water—about 13 billion m³ more than its renewable resources can replenish. Agriculture accounts for roughly 91% of withdrawals, while households and industry use only 7% and 2% respectively. Inefficient irrigation further wastes a significant share of this scarce resource.The Shrinking Dams Around TehranIran, a major dam‑building nation, now faces dozens of reservoirs at critically low levels. Satellite comparisons of Lar, Latyan and Mamloo dams—key supplies for the capital—show water levels declining sharply as drought and rising demand strain Tehran’s water system.Rural Exodus and Urban StrainOnly 38,000 of Iran’s 69,000 villages remain inhabited; 31,000 have been abandoned.About 27,000 villages, home to over 10 million people, are currently experiencing water shortages.More than 70% of villages face some form of water crisis.These shortages are prompting mass migration to cities such as Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan and Shiraz, which themselves are confronting heightened water pressures.Only a Tiny Fraction from DesalinationDesalination meets just 3% of Iran’s water needs, concentrated along the southern Gulf coast. Inland regions—including Tehran, Isfahan and major agricultural zones—remain heavily dependent on dwindling surface and groundwater sources.Outlook: Policy Choices and Future RisksThe trajectory suggests escalating water scarcity unless Iran reforms water allocation, modernises irrigation, and expands sustainable supply options. Continued reliance on dam storage and limited desalination will likely prove insufficient, risking further ecological loss, social displacement and heightened regional instability.

The Human Impact of Botswana's Diamond Slump Motshwegwa Rakhudu, a former installer at Debswana diamond mining operations in northern Botswana, lost his job after 14 years without warning. He had been on rolling three-year renewable contracts with Enabler Hires (Pty) Ltd, expecting the arrangement to continue through to 2027. Rakhudu's story is not unique. The retrenchments come as Botswana's diamond sector, the backbone of its economy, slows sharply. Debswana Diamond Company, a joint venture between the government and De Beers, cut production by about 27% in 2024 to 17.9 million carats amid weak global demand. Jobs Vanish as Diamond Production Slows The slowdown has rippled through the wider economy. Botswana's output contracted by about 5.3% in the second quarter of 2025, the sharpest fall since the pandemic, driven largely by declining diamond production. Diamonds account for around 70% of export earnings and roughly a third of government revenue. The sector is now under pressure from weak demand, competition from lab-grown diamonds, and reduced luxury spending in key markets. Household Pressure Builds Across Mining Communities For workers, the impact is no longer abstract. 'The diamond downturn is no longer just a business issue. It is a human issue affecting workers, families, contractors, and entire mining communities,' said Mbiganyi Gaekgotswe, General Secretary of the Botswana Mineworkers Union. Uncertainty now defines everyday life for miners and their families. 'The first question on everyone's mind is whether they will still have a job next year,' Gaekgotswe said. 'Will contracts be renewed? Will overtime be reduced? These are not abstract concerns. They affect school fees, loans, medical bills, and family responsibilities.' Beyond Diamonds: Searching for New Growth Botswana's Minister of Labour and Home Affairs, Pius Mokgware, said the government is responding by trying to absorb job losses, including expanding copper mining and opening new projects. He added that diversification efforts are also targeting agriculture, tourism, and Information and Communication Technology. However, for Rakhudu, structural shifts in the global diamond market remain distant from daily survival. 'I am still looking,' he said. 'I just want another chance to work.'

The Shift in Clarkson's Farm By now, five series in, the fatal flaw at the heart of Clarkson’s Farm has become unignorable. Ultimately, this is meant to be a show about failure; about an oafish man who wades in to an industry he knows little about and mucks everything up. The Reality of Clarkson's Success Except, well, it isn’t that any more, is it? Because in real life, Clarkson’s Farm has become so successful that Clarkson has now essentially colonised the entire Cotswolds in his image. His Farmer’s Dog pub is now such an attraction that it recently had to turn a nearby field into a 360-space car park – the same as a large supermarket – to cope with demand. His Diddly Squat farm shop is a souvenir emporium, catering to anyone who wants to buy branded hats and cufflinks, or to own a jar of honey with Clarkson’s face on it. And this isn’t even mentioning his Hawkstone beer brand, which reported sales of £21.3m in the year to March 2025 and has a stated goal of putting Peroni “out of business”. The Data Behind Clarkson's Empire The numbers are staggering: £21.3m in sales for Hawkstone beer brand 360-space car park added to Farmer's Dog pub The Impact on the Show All of which makes Clarkson’s mannered whoopsie daisy clumsiness harder to take. If the point of Clarkson’s Farm is to show people how difficult it is to be a farmer, and yet Clarkson’s biggest gripe is the number of pint glasses tourists steal from his pub, that seems like a fairly difficult structural flaw to overcome. The Future of Clarkson's Farm What’s so interesting about series five is that you can see Clarkson’s Farm attempting to overcome this in real time in a couple of ways. The first, and least successful, is to lean a little harder into the reality show element of it all. The series opens with iPhone footage of Clarkson in hospital with chest pains. Years of stress and bad living have caught up with him, and he reveals that he was apparently days away from a catastrophic heart attack. Especially when the actual farming stuff is so well made. The joy of Clarkson’s Farm is that Clarkson is such an effective communicator that you find yourself swept up in his interests. Unlike Countryfile, which offers rose-tinted sentimentality as a default, there’s always something slightly thrilling about the sight of Clarkson encountering the quirks of modern agriculture. By far the most satisfying parts of the show come when Clarkson stops mucking around and actually treats farming as a subject worthy of his time. A lot of this series is devoted to the modernisation necessary to keep farming profitable, and his pursuit of this takes him to some extraordinary places.

Executive Summary: AI Expansion Meets a Historic DroughtThe United States is undergoing a record‑shattering drought, yet the artificial intelligence sector is pressing ahead, with the majority of new datacenters planned for water‑stressed locations.Planned AI Datacenters Concentrated in Drought‑Stricken RegionsOut of 809 planned datacenters, 517 (≈64%) are in counties graded drought‑level by the federal government over the past year.Existing datacenters show a similar geographic pattern.Developers favor arid sites for lower land costs, tax incentives, and reduced equipment corrosion.Water Demand Projections for AI Datacenters Through 2028Current water use (2023): 17 billion gallons per year.Projected water use (2028): 73 billion gallons per year.Typical large datacenter cooling needs: up to 5 million gallons daily (≈ water use of 50,000 people).Each 100‑word AI prompt consumes roughly 500 ml of water.In Texas, AI datacenters could represent 9% of total state water use by 2040.Environmental and Political Ramifications of Water‑Intensive AI InfrastructureStakeholders warn of future conflicts over water allocation between residents, agriculture, and datacenters.Local opposition is rising; polls indicate 70% of Americans oppose living near a datacenter.State legislatures (e.g., California, Michigan, Iowa) are considering reporting mandates; New York is drafting a moratorium.Industry representatives argue datacenters use a fraction of total water consumption compared with agriculture and golf‑course irrigation.Future Outlook: Regulation, Technology Shifts, and Water StewardshipCompanies are piloting closed‑loop cooling systems to cut water use, though these demand more electricity, often from water‑intensive fossil‑fuel plants.Meta’s proposed Hyperion datacenter in Louisiana plans to draw 1 billion gallons annually from an agricultural aquifer while relying on ten gas‑fired power plants.Experts anticipate an emerging consensus among major hyperscalers on “water stewardship” as regulatory pressure mounts.Continued drought severity could force stricter siting criteria, higher water‑pricing, and greater investment in water‑recycling infrastructure.

Heat Haze Over Westmorland: A 1951 Summer SnapshotWestmorland in early June 1951 was caught in a lingering summer heat that turned the fells into a drowsy, hazy tableau. The Guardian’s Country Diary captures the atmosphere: brown grass, bright bracken, and still waters that betray a season arriving “perhaps too soon.”Dry Conditions and Declining Lake LevelsThe diary notes that lake levels were “lower than they have been for months,” with virtually no ripples and an absence of fish activity. Rock climbers felt the heat “rebound from the great rocks like sound from a gong,” while mosses, usually sodden for most of the year, had become “brittle as tinder.”Quantifying the Agricultural ShortfallHay harvest projected to be later than any previous year.Prospects for winter fodder described as “grim,” threatening livestock nutrition.Livestock—dairy cows and sheep—were observed seeking shade or wading in the drying lakes, indicating stress.Although exact figures are absent, the narrative signals a significant reduction in usable pasture and a likely shortfall in stored feed for the upcoming winter months.Implications for Rural Livelihoods in Post‑War BritainThe entry underscores the vulnerability of post‑war British agriculture to weather extremes. With farms already operating under tight margins, a delayed hay cut and insufficient fodder could exacerbate economic pressures on farmers, potentially leading to reduced milk output and higher feed costs.What a Similar Drought Could Mean TodayModern climate models warn that heatwaves of this intensity may become more frequent. If a comparable event struck today, advanced irrigation and forecasting could mitigate some impacts, yet the fundamental challenge—ensuring adequate feed for livestock during prolonged dry spells—remains. The 1951 diary serves as a historical reminder of the tight link between weather, water resources, and agricultural resilience.

The El Niño ThreatThe UN has warned that the world must prepare for the imminent return of El Niño, a powerful natural weather pattern that brings raised global temperatures and weather extremes.The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday that El Niño has an 80% chance of forming before September and a 90% chance before November.Impact on AsiaAsia is predicted to be one of the regions most exposed, with intensifying heat and drought predicted to put major stresses on agriculture, power grids and water supplies.A Deadly Combination for IndiaIn India, El Niño might intensify heat conditions and weaken the oncoming monsoon, which is already predicted to deliver “below average” rainfall. Experts warn that this could be disastrous for India and the wider subcontinent, which has already been grappling with deadly heatwaves and an energy crisis.Calls to Stockpile Essentials in Parts of ChinaChina often suffers from flooding as well as droughts in the summer months, weather events that have worsened with the climate crisis and which put pressure on the power grid. This year, the challenges will be bigger as El Niño is set to cause further havoc.The meteorological bureau of Qinghai, a high-altitude province in north-west China, warned that while El Niño “may seem far away”, its effects on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau would be “unpredictable and extreme”. The bureau advised people to keep stockpiles of emergency supplies at home.

The Changing Landscape of Meat Consumption Twenty years ago, the question of whether to eat a steak or a tofu patty was largely seen as a moral dilemma influenced by conditions in factory farms and slaughterhouses. However, the debate has shifted sharply. The pollution from animal agriculture, which makes up 12-20% of planet-heating gas, is now part of public discourse around eating meat. A dramatic rise in rates of obesity and diseases linked to red meat have made health concerns part of individual decisions to eat less of it. The Rise of Plant-Based Alternatives Plant-based alternatives have improved in texture and taste to the point where even meat lovers struggle to tell that they did not come from an animal. In Germany, about one in 10 people are vegan or vegetarian and a further 37% describe themselves as flexitarian. Plant-based alternatives have become so common that a third of the population buy them regularly, a government survey found in November. The Data Analysis: Meat Consumption Trends Despite the growing awareness about the environmental harm of livestock, data from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation suggests the average person eats six times as much chicken and twice as much pork as their grandparents did. Global meat supply has risen fourfold in the last 60 years. Much of the growth has taken place in poor countries where better access to meat has helped counter hunger and malnutrition. The Impact Analysis: Environmental and Health Consequences Livestock are expected to contribute the vast majority of the projected 7.6% rise in global agricultural emissions over the next decade. The use of antibiotics on livestock is also projected to rise by nearly a third in the next 15 years without government intervention, with potentially disastrous consequences for protection from disease. Health research shows that people in rich countries are eating more meat and fewer plants than doctors consider healthy. The Prediction: Future Outlook It is too early to tell whether the backlash signals a reversal or stalling of efforts to shift diets toward plants. The meat industry is working hard to safeguard its dominance, with EU politicians voting to ban meaty names such as steak and bacon for plant-based alternatives. In the US, the 'Make America Healthy Again' campaign has enthusiastically promoted eating more meat, going against medical advice.

Six‑Fold Surge in Global Chicken Consumption Since 1961The latest FAO assessment, commissioned by the UN, finds that the average person consumes roughly 17 kg of poultry per year in 2022, up from under 3 kg in 1961 – a six‑times increase. Pork intake has also doubled, while beef supply has remained flat.Quantifying the Four‑Decade Meat Supply JumpGlobal meat supply rose from 25 kg per person (1961) to 47 kg per person (2022).Poultry: 3 kg → 17 kg per capita.Pork: 7.5 kg → 15 kg per capita.Beef: steady at 9 kg per capita.Approximately 14 % of meat and milk is lost or wasted before reaching consumers.Environmental and Health Implications of Expanding Livestock ProductionAgriculture is the second‑largest polluting sector worldwide, and livestock accounts for an estimated 80 % of projected emission growth over the next decade. The report highlights that low‑ and middle‑income regions face higher relative costs for animal foods, while high‑income nations drive “excessive consumption.” Experts warn that without dietary shifts, meeting IPCC climate targets will be increasingly difficult.What the Next Decade May Hold for Meat Demand and Climate GoalsFAO officials say a follow‑up report later this year will examine environmental sustainability in depth, suggesting potential policy levers such as reducing antimicrobial resistance and improving production efficiency. Researchers argue that without a clear push toward reduced meat intake in wealthy countries, the sector’s emissions could outpace the 1.5 °C warming limit.