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Lead: A Milestone Reflection on Climate ActionIn its 250th edition, the Guardian's Down to Earth newsletter pauses to assess how the world's fight against climate change has unfolded since the high‑water mark of Cop26 in Glasgow, 2021.Looking Back: Cop26’s Promise and the Five‑Year Journey2021‑2022: Nations pledged to limit warming to 1.5°C, set net‑zero targets and pledged to phase out coal.2022‑2023: The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Iran‑oil conflict drove crude prices above $100 /barrel, exposing fossil‑fuel vulnerabilities.2024‑2025: Populist governments rolled back environmental regulations, while renewable technology became cheaper and more widespread.Numbers That Matter: Public Awareness and Emissions GapsThe “Covering Climate Now” survey found that 80‑89 % of the global public recognise the climate threat and demand government action.Current national plans still point to a projected warming of about 2.8 °C, well above the agreed target.Renewable energy costs have fallen by roughly 70 % since 2020, making clean power “cheap, widely available and overwhelmingly popular.”Why the Momentum Slowed: Geopolitics, Economics and PopulismWar‑driven spikes in oil prices, the re‑election of climate‑skeptical leaders and the rise of populist rhetoric have eroded the optimism that surrounded Cop26, pushing many countries to backtrack on commitments.What Lies Ahead: Hopeful Trends and Persistent ChallengesDespite setbacks, advances in clean‑tech, growing public pressure and emerging green‑economy initiatives suggest a pathway forward, but the intertwined climate‑biodiversity‑economy crises demand coordinated global action.

The Guardian's View on Tony Blair's Labour Advice Tony Blair's recent intervention in Labour party politics has sparked criticism from The Guardian, which argues that his advice is out of touch with the current political landscape. Blair's 5,700-word essay, published on the website of his Institute for Global Change, emphasizes the need for Labour to adopt a 'radical centre' approach, but The Guardian contends that this approach is based on outdated assumptions from the 1990s. Blair's Outdated Policy Prescriptions The Guardian argues that Blair's advice ignores the significant changes in the economic and social landscape since the 1990s, including the rise of AI, populism, and increased inequality. The article criticizes Blair for attacking Labour politicians who advocate for progressive policies, such as increasing capital gains tax or strengthening workers' rights. The Economic Context Has Changed The Guardian highlights the failure of the New Labour governments led by Blair to address issues like inequality and the financial deregulation that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis. The article argues that the current economic context is more challenging, with flatlining growth, wages, and productivity, and a crisis of affordability. Labour's Path to Revival The Guardian suggests that Labour's revival will depend on its ability to convince voters that it is committed to a more just economic settlement. The article argues that Blair's advice is tone-deaf to this reality and that Labour should look elsewhere for inspiration. A Call for a New Approach The article concludes that Labour needs to adopt a new approach that addresses the current challenges and concerns of voters, rather than relying on outdated policy prescriptions. The Guardian argues that this will require a more nuanced understanding of the economic and social context and a willingness to challenge the status quo.

The Billionaire Class Trauer: How Wealthy Democrats Are Embracing PopulismTom Steyer has built his campaign for governor of California around affordability – and taxing the uber-wealthy. It is perhaps an unusual message for a candidate with an estimated net worth of $2.4bn. But the hedge fund founder-turned climate activist and liberal mega-donor is pitching himself as a different kind of billionaire: one who wants people like him to pay far more in taxes.The Billionaire Populist StrategyAs early voting ballots trickle in for the 2 June primary, Steyer, a leading candidate in the unsettled contest, is racing to convince Californians that his elect-the-rich-guy-to-eat-the-rich candidacy isn't a contradiction. "People are very skeptical of billionaires," Steyer, wearing a beige baseball cap with the words "class traitor" embroidered on it, told a small group of reporters at a campaign event in East LA on Wednesday. "I'm skeptical of billionaires because we've seen so many billionaires being selfish and arrogant."The Rise of Anti-Billionaire SentimentSteyer's campaign arrives at a particularly combustible political moment in the US, shaped by a surge in anti-elite populism, widening income inequality and growing suspicion of billionaire power across both parties. A survey conducted last year by the Harris Poll found that the share of Americans who said billionaires threaten American democracy rose to 53%, up 7 points from 2024. At the same time, nearly eight in 10 respondents said they were more likely to support a billionaire who "challenges unjust systems."California's Affordability Crisis and Political ResponseAnti-rich sentiment is especially pronounced in the Golden State, which boasts the world's fourth largest economy and more billionaires than any other US state. Yet California faces a deep affordability crisis, leaving many voters searching for a governor who will do more than take on the billionaire in the White House. They want someone who will "upend the system," said Lorena Gonzalez, president of the powerful California Federation of Labor Unions.The Democrat's Billionaire DilemmaA decade after Trump, a billionaire real estate mogul, proved he could harness working-class discontent, Democrats see a chance to rebuild their frayed coalition and win back the voters squeezed by the rising cost of rent, utilities and groceries. Ahead of the November midterm elections, Democrats are hammering Trump over his coziness with Silicon Valley billionaires and his preoccupation with building a ballroom at the White House, evidence, they say, that the president's party has abandoned working class voters in favor of a new gilded-age oligarchy.Wealthy Progressives Across AmericaSteyer is not the only Democrat testing the party's appetite for a populist from the 1%. In Illinois, Governor JB Pritzker, a scion of the Pritzker family that founded the Hyatt hotel chain, is running for a third term – and widely believed to be considering a presidential bid in 2028. Other wealthy progressives include Saikat Chakrabarti, a centimillionaire tech entrepreneur and former chief of staff to Ocasio-Cortez who is self-funding his anti-establishment bid to succeed retiring former House speaker Nancy Pelosi in San Francisco.A Historical Perspective on Wealthy DemocratsWealthy Democrats are hardly a new phenomenon. From Franklin Roosevelt's patrician roots to John F Kennedy's vast family fortune, the party has a history of elevating affluent political leaders who framed their privilege as a responsibility to serve the public. As Cas Mudde, a leading scholar of populism, noted by email, "socialists have long been led by 'class traitors' (eg Friedrich Engels) or have supported rich politicians and intellectuals (for example Bernie Sanders and Noam Chomsky)."The Future of Populist PoliticsAmid a volatile job market and escalating inflation, voters want leaders who understand their economic struggles. In California, with the nation's highest cost of living and gas prices topping $6 per gallon amid the Iran war, that demand is particularly urgent. Perhaps then it is a sign of the times that if Steyer advances to the November general election, Californians would likely have the chance to elect a billionaire for governor and impose a first-of-its-kind wealth tax on the state's richest residents.

The LeadAs UK faces growing pressure to fund public services while defending progressive policies against rising anti-tax populism, a proposal suggests millionaires should automatically pay additional taxes unless they actively opt out. This approach, based on behavioral research showing opt-out systems generate higher participation than voluntary contributions, could potentially raise significant revenue for the Treasury.The Behavioral Economics Behind Opt-Out SystemsResearch repeatedly shows that opt-in systems produce dramatically lower participation than opt-out systems – the core principle behind so-called nudge theory. Successive UK governments have already relied heavily on the latter approach in areas ranging from pension auto-enrolment to organ donation frameworks. The author, James Kyle, suggests that participation would rise sharply when contribution is the default position rather than requiring active enrolment.The Current Tax Landscape for the WealthyCurrently, wealthy individuals can make voluntary payments to HMRC, but the sums raised remain negligible. The Treasury's standard response is that such voluntary payments already exist. However, behavioral economists argue that this approach fails to account for human psychology, where default options significantly influence decisions.The Potential Revenue ImpactWhile critics may dislike the fact that participation would remain technically voluntary, the proposal maintains that existing taxes would remain fully compulsory and progressive. The tax surcharge would apply automatically unless individuals confidentially chose to opt out in their tax returns. The relevant comparison is not between this and an imaginary world of perfect tax compliance, but between securing additional contributions from many wealthy individuals or securing nothing at all while increasing incentives for avoidance, relocation and political backlash.The Political ImplicationsIn politically challenging times, ideas that combine behavioral realism with fiscal pragmatism deserve closer consideration. The proposal comes as research shows three-quarters of UK millionaires say they would be willing to pay more tax, creating a potential opportunity for policymakers to implement a system that aligns with both behavioral science and revenue needs.

A Concise Overview of Hoyer’s New Weimar NarrativeIn Weimar: Life on the Edge of Catastrophe, historian Katja Hoyer chronicles the German city’s dramatic swing between cultural brilliance and political darkness from 1919 to 1939. The Guardian review frames the work as both a meticulous chronicle and a warning for today’s democratic fragility. Weimar’s Dual Identity: Democratic Cradle and Nazi LaboratoryThe book opens with Weimar’s post‑World‑War I glory: the nation’s first democratic constitution was signed in its theatre, and the Bauhaus school thrived under Walter Gropius. By the mid‑1920s the city, then the capital of Thuringia, became a testing ground for the nascent Nazi movement.July 3‑4, 1926: First post‑re‑foundation Nazi rally in Weimar, drawing 7,000‑8,000 participants.December 1929 state elections: Nazis secured 24% of the Weimar vote, far above the national average.1931: Nazis join a right‑wing coalition, taking control of Thuringia’s interior and education ministries. Numbers That Reveal Weimar’s Political Shift (1926‑1939)The review highlights several stark statistics that illustrate the city’s rapid radicalisation:24% of Weimar voters backed the Nazis in the 1929 state election, compared with 11% across Thuringia.By 1937, the nearby Buchenwald camp held roughly 56,000 inmates, most of them Jewish.The book’s price: £30 (Allen Lane). Why Weimar’s Story Resonates in Today’s German PoliticsHoyer argues that understanding ordinary citizens’ complicity—exemplified by figures like shopkeeper Carl Weirich, who funded the SS yet later expressed unease—offers crucial lessons for contemporary democracies. The review ties this to the 2024 Thuringian state election, where the far‑right AfD topped the poll with 33% of the vote, echoing past patterns of economic distress fuelling extremist appeal. Future Outlook: Lessons From Weimar for Safeguarding DemocracyThe Guardian concludes that Hoyer’s refusal to pass moral judgement on individuals, while still urging vigilance, positions the book as a timely tool for scholars, policymakers, and citizens confronting rising populism. If the historical ambiguities of Weimar are heeded, they may help prevent a repeat of democratic erosion in the 21st century.

The Impeachment Vote and Its Political FalloutRepublican Senator Bill Cassidy's decision to vote for the conviction of Donald Trump in the 2021 impeachment proceedings has resurfaced as a critical liability as he faces a primary challenge in his home state of Louisiana. Cassidy was one of only seven Republicans in the Senate to vote "guilty" on the charge of "incitement of insurrection" following the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack. In his statement at the time, he argued that "our Constitution and our country is more important than any one person." However, the political landscape has shifted dramatically since then. Trump has mounted a stunning comeback, reshaping the Republican Party in his likeness and marginalizing the few Republicans who dared to cross him.Polling Trends and Trump's Enduring GripDespite a record-low national approval rating of 34% at the end of April, Donald Trump maintains a stranglehold on the Louisiana Republican base. In the 2024 presidential election, Trump carried the state with 60% of the vote. This loyalty is translating directly into the Senate primary, where polls show Cassidy trailing behind both Trump-backed candidate Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming. If no candidate secures an outright majority, the race will proceed to a run-off on June 27. The data indicates that while Trump's national approval has tanked, his influence within the Republican Party remains a decisive force in deep-red states.Trump's 2024 Performance: 60% of the vote in LouisianaNational Approval: 34% (record low in April)Run-off Date: June 27The Republican Party's Internal FractureThe race in Louisiana serves as a microcosm of the broader Republican Party's struggle to reconcile its past with its future. While other senators who voted to convict Trump—such as Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski—have managed to survive, many of their colleagues were ousted or chose to retire. This suggests a party that has largely accepted Trump's false claims of election fraud and his demand for absolute loyalty. The primary is further complicated by the suspension of Louisiana's House of Representatives primary due to the US Supreme Court striking down a provision of the Voting Rights Act, allowing the state legislature to redraw maps that eliminate a Black-majority district. This creates a volatile environment where traditional political calculations are being upended by cultural and legal battles.The Future of GOP Moderates in Deep-Red StatesThe battle for Bill Cassidy's seat highlights the precarious position of moderate Republicans in an era of Trumpian populism. Cassidy has attempted to walk a fine line, frequently appearing with Trump at White House events while occasionally clashing with him on specific issues like vaccine skepticism. However, his opposition to Trump's nominees and his 2021 impeachment vote have provided ammunition for opponents like Letlow, who argue that residents "shouldn't have to wonder how our senator will vote when the pressure is on." The prediction for the coming years is that the GOP will continue to purge moderate voices, making it increasingly difficult for centrist politicians to survive in states where Trump's base is entrenched. The outcome of this primary will likely signal whether the Republican Party is willing to fully embrace Trumpism or if there remains a small, resilient faction of traditional conservatives willing to challenge the former president's dominance.

The Politicization of Science Donald Trump’s war on science has been vicious and hugely damaging, but it is worth noting that he has lost some of its biggest battles. Last year, Mr Trump demanded that US federal scientific and medical research funding be cut by about half. But the budget Congress passed in February actually delivered a slight increase in overall funding – although specific Trump targets such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were cut. Resistance from Congress He also continues to chip away at science in other ways such as dismissing the board overseeing the National Science Foundation this week. Maga’s attacks on science have been nakedly political. Its defeats have been politics of a different sort, showing that the bipartisan pro-science consensus is still intact, and for the moment has the power to hold Mr Trump in check. A Global Trend What is happening in the US is not unique. Wherever rightwing populists triumph, science is likely to suffer. Jair Bolsonaro’s rule in Brazil saw him attack scientists and cut environmental funding. In India, Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government purged the theory of evolution from school textbooks. In Britain, Reform UK has already attempted local government cuts, targeting net zero spending. The Changing Role of Scientists Scientists have tended to avoid party politics for a specific reason. Historians identify an implicit scientific social contract that emerged in western states after the second world war, which established the state as the main funder of research, but in theory discouraged direct political interference by government. Many scientists believe that engaging in politics endangers this compact: if scientists don’t bother politics, it won’t bother them. A New Era for Science and Politics Scientists are no longer just defending funding. They are defending the idea that science should be independent of politics. What scientists gain by organising protests, speaking to the public through their academies and now running for office is a better understanding of the changing public sphere that they are part of. The public may gain an ally against rightwing populism – and a deeper, more serious engagement with the scientific challenges facing society. Mr Trump set out to tame scientists. He may have politicised them instead.

Senior ministers have poured scorn on the idea of a year‑long private‑sector rent freeze, just hours after the Guardian reported that Chancellor Rachel Reeves was considering the measure. The swift repudiation by Housing Secretary Steve Reed and Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook has amplified internal Labour tensions and sparked fresh market volatility. The Political Backlash to the Proposed Rent Freeze 28 Apr 2026: Steve Reed declares “we’re not doing it” during a press briefing. 28 Apr 2026: Matthew Pennycook labels the proposal “not a credible or serious policy proposition” and cites evidence from Sweden, Germany, San Francisco and Scotland. 29 Apr 2026: Keir Starmer praises Reeves but stops short of guaranteeing her tenure. 29 Apr 2026: Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch questions the government’s economic approach in the Commons. The swift denials have fueled speculation that Reeves could be reshuffled, especially after reports that Starmer may consider a post‑election cabinet overhaul. Market Reaction and Yield Spike Amid Policy Uncertainty Investors reacted sharply to the political turmoil: 10‑year UK gilt yields climbed to **over 5%**, the highest closing level since 2008. Yield spreads widened as analysts warned that a prolonged Middle‑East conflict could erode Reeves’ fiscal “headroom”. Jefferies analysts flagged the upcoming local elections as “the market can’t ignore”, noting potential pressure on bond prices. Implications for Labour’s Economic Credibility and Upcoming Elections The episode highlights deeper fractures within Labour’s economic team. While the party seeks to project fiscal responsibility, the rent‑freeze chatter suggests a tension between voter‑friendly populism and market‑oriented prudence. A reshuffle or perceived instability could: Undermine confidence among business groups and investors. Elevate borrowing costs for the UK government. Provide ammunition to opposition parties ahead of the local polls. What Lies Ahead for Reeves and the Treasury Given the market’s sensitivity, Downing Street reiterated full confidence in Reeves, emphasizing continuity until the next general election. However, the confluence of: internal Labour dissent, rising gilt yields, and looming local‑election outcomes, means a reshuffle cannot be ruled out. Analysts expect Reeves to maintain her position in the short term while the government navigates the dual challenges of fiscal stability and political cohesion.

Guardian reviewer Peter Chappell offers a daring, semi‑fictional scenario of a Reform Party government under Nigel Farage, turning the book What If Reform Wins? into a political thriller that doubles as a cautionary analysis of Britain’s constitutional fragilities.The Book’s Premise: A Fiction‑Styled Forecast of a Reform GovernmentChappell frames the narrative as a speculative arc, moving from Farage’s first act—withdrawal from the ECHR and the 1951 refugee convention—to a cascade of policy shocks on immigration, net‑zero, and taxation. The story is built on interviews with civil servants and Reform insiders, presenting imagined cabinet decisions alongside factual context.Key Figures and Numbers: Price, Publication, and Political StakesPublisher: BloomsburyRelease price: £16.99Publication date: 2026Political backdrop: Rising Reform Party support ahead of the next general electionWhy the Narrative Resonates: Insights into UK Populism and Institutional VulnerabilitiesThe review highlights three core policy arenas where Reform’s agenda is most explicit: aggressive immigration controls, abandonment of net‑zero commitments, and tax cuts. By dramatizing actions such as mass deportations and a war‑like stance toward the BBC, Chappell illustrates how a majority prime minister could legally bypass parliamentary scrutiny, invoke emergency powers, and reshape civil service dynamics.Looking Ahead: What the Review Suggests About Future Political ScenariosWhile some plot points—like MI5 erasing files or a surprise Labour leadership change—feel speculative, the underlying warning is clear: a single‑party majority can concentrate unprecedented authority. The reviewer cautions that logistical limits and real‑world pushback, rather than parliamentary opposition, may be the true checks on such a government, urging readers to monitor Reform’s policy drafts and internal fault lines as the election approaches.